Live Selections For Friday

[Anderon]

Todays Tracks - Arlington, Belmont, Calder, Churchill, Hollywood, Louisiana, Monmouth, and Stockton !!

I do only 1 horse selections as I only flat wager to Win and Place, but you'll find these selections excellent keys for the exotics !!

Let's get Profitable !!

[Anderon]

Mon 2nd...#6 at 3-1...3 mtp

[Anderon]

Mon 2nd...#6 at 3-1...3 mtp

Winner....$8.80....$4.00

[traynor]

Monmouth Fourth Race
3 to win
Straight exactas 3-7 and 3-10
:) Good Luck!

[traynor]

Woodbine 3rd
5 to win
:) Good Luck!

[traynor]

Finger Lakes Sixth Race
1a to win.
:) Good Luck!

[traynor]

Louisiana Downs Fourth Race
1 to win
Straight exacta 1-2
:) Good Luck!

[traynor]

harnessguru, your nom de plume implies expertise in the sulky sport. What say we take a tilt at Pocono Downs? Starts in an hour, and I am sure a tote app should work every bit as well there as at Belmont. Or do you use some other selection method?

[harnessguru]

Alright Pocono Downs it is. I do not use a tote application or anything like that. I look at the stats and PP's of the horses in the field. lets start a new thread though so we keep the daily selections by anderon clean. Start a harness thread for pocono and we can post what we like in there.

[traynor]

On second thought, I think a reverse exacta of 10-3 in the fourth at Monmouth might be a good backup. The 3 and 10 look like either could win.
:) Good Luck!

[Anderon]

For all of those that would like to see a screen shot of my program here it is !! This is only one page of 4 pages to my program. I play off the totebaord only !! This is from todays Monmouth's 2nd race of the winner on the #6 horse. For some of those who I said you wouldn't understand it and it's complicated, now you can see for yourself and understand why it is.


Attached Fileshttp://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/attach/zip.gifMonmouth_2_06232006_wps.zip (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=1309) (9.1 KB, 0 views)

[traynor]

Anderon, a question, if you can break out of the hissy fit for a moment. My understanding of a tote-board based application is that you feed in (or upload) the odds, then make decisions about wagers based on the odds.

I understand how that could work (a la Ziemba and others) in a number of situations, as long as the bets were fairly modest. I am NOT a modest bettor. It seems that substantial bets might so affect the mutuel pools that the reality would differ from the prediction. (There is a whole theory in quantum physics along that line, but I don't want to tax you.) In short, you aim because of a target, but firing at the target causes it to move.

Do you think that could be why your profits have been elusive? That you are giving away the candy store, and, because people bet your selections, the available odds on those selections drop below what you projected them to be at the time you decided to wager?
Probably not an issue for $2 bettors, but when you dump serious money into a mutuel pool and get chump change back, perhaps your approach does not lend itself to sharing so freely? And the only way to keep it profitable is to restrict access? Especially to those who might contemplate tossing in a $20k wager to turn an ocean of red ink into black?

[Anderon]

Anderon, a question, if you can break out of the hissy fit for a moment. My understanding of a tote-board based application is that you feed in (or upload) the odds, then make decisions about wagers based on the odds.

I understand how that could work (a la Ziemba and others) in a number of situations, as long as the bets were fairly modest. I am NOT a modest bettor. It seems that substantial bets might so affect the mutuel pools that the reality would differ from the prediction. (There is a whole theory in quantum physics along that line, but I don't want to tax you.) In short, you aim because of a target, but firing at the target causes it to move.

Do you think that could be why your profits have been elusive? That you are giving away the candy store, and, because people bet your selections, the available odds on those selections drop below what you projected them to be at the time you decided to wager?
Probably not an issue for $2 bettors, but when you dump serious money into a mutuel pool and get chump change back, perhaps your approach does not lend itself to sharing so freely? And the only way to keep it profitable is to restrict access? Especially to those who might contemplate tossing in a $20k wager to turn an ocean of red ink into black?

It's not about the horse that gets most money, actually I look for just about the complete opposite, the inside money, not the money that is so noticeable by all to be seen. After many years of tracking these pools I've found that the small money speaks alot louder than the large amounts. There are about 4-5 ways to play a horse to get the money in the pools so that it is not to noticeable depending on the size of the pools. I play off the W&P pools and the Exacta pools. I've been at this game for 30 years now so I know what I'm doing and what I'm looking for !! That's also why I generally only play the larger tracks with the larger pools, so there is not so much flucuation to my price, now the smaller tracks yes that would happen. One other thing I'm not a small bettor either but most people don't wager thast much for me to worry about it.

[traynor]

35 box in LaD 1st.:)

[traynor]

I assumed so. The problems I encounter are like the 4th at Monmouth (which I just lost, by the way). I bet the 3 earlier at 2/1. It stayed relatively stable at that point for some time. After the race was off, the odds dropped to 8/5, indicating a big influx of last minute cash. If bet at 2/1 (a good value bet, win or lose) but my return is 8/5, on a $2k bet, that makes a difference of $800.

The part I am wrestling with is that a situation that looks good before a bet may not look as good after the bet. Several software developers on this forum have commented on the fact that the simple act of making their selections available apparently dropped those selections into red ink. All BS aside, I am wondering if the same thing might not be happening to you. In short, that publicly displaying your selections may have enough of an influence on the final odds to make them seem less profitable than they may actually be.

For one thing, I know that I am not the only one on this forum who takes betting seriously. I have not been betting your selections, but in looking back over the threads, it seems you were getting better prices at the start, then they dropped. Just a thought.

I don't mind complaining loudly when I think I'm right. Similarly, I have no problem whatsoever in admitting I may have been wrong. (It could just be a lack of modesty, but I prefer to think of it as good character.) Have you ever considered that posting your selections so publicly may negatively affect the profit potential of those selections?

[traynor]

That 3-5 box at Louisiana Downs was NOT one of my more brilliant selections. It goes into the red ink side of the ledger along with the 4th at Monmouth. Oh, well, this is Friday, and all the wannabes with their freshly-cashed paychecks will be out dumping the rent money into the mutuel pools at Charlestown, Mountaineer, Indiana Downs, and Prairie Meadows later. I can always get it back, so I might as well sit back and enjoy the show.
;) Good Luck!

[Anderon]

I assumed so. The problems I encounter are like the 4th at Monmouth (which I just lost, by the way). I bet the 3 earlier at 2/1. It stayed relatively stable at that point for some time. After the race was off, the odds dropped to 8/5, indicating a big influx of last minute cash. If bet at 2/1 (a good value bet, win or lose) but my return is 8/5, on a $2k bet, that makes a difference of $800.

The part I am wrestling with is that a situation that looks good before a bet may not look as good after the bet. Several software developers on this forum have commented on the fact that the simple act of making their selections available apparently dropped those selections into red ink. All BS aside, I am wondering if the same thing might not be happening to you. In short, that publicly displaying your selections may have enough of an influence on the final odds to make them seem less profitable than they may actually be.

For one thing, I know that I am not the only one on this forum who takes betting seriously. I have not been betting your selections, but in looking back over the threads, it seems you were getting better prices at the start, then they dropped. Just a thought.

I don't mind complaining loudly when I think I'm right. Similarly, I have no problem whatsoever in admitting I may have been wrong. (It could just be a lack of modesty, but I prefer to think of it as good character.) Have you ever considered that posting your selections so publicly may negatively affect the profit potential of those selections?

Nope not at all...because there a very very few that bet large sums of money to affect me negatively, plus I'm still very profitable. This is another reason why I won't offer my program up for sale because if it were to drastically affect me then I will just stop posting the selections and no one has the program to have the selections !!

Ok...I'm going to be very busy here shortly with all the tracks comming online now, so all discussions will have to be put on hold for now, but I will be glad to answer them later tonight !1

[traynor]

Why would we want to keep this thread "clean?" We are all housebroken, and I don't think anyone is going to soil the linen. Isn't the purpose of a forum to act as a sounding board for the opinions and commentary of the citizenry? Why do we have to go skulking off to another thread? I like it here. It feels so nice and homey, and all my friends and associates are here, and all the action is here, and I don't want to miss any of it by going off to some strange thread (that I have never met and know absolutely nothing about) just to post a few selections for Pocono. Is there something going on here that I am not privy to? This is a thread of multiple posting for multiple tracks, made close to post time. If I go off with you to some strange thread, how is that of benefit to those who need to cash a few tickets on this thread? Aren't we (or wouldn't we be) depriving them of the opportunity to take advantage of our superior knowledge and expertise in selecting the probable winners of harness races?
;)

[harnessguru]

Pocono Race 3 Number 5 Instant Photo.

[Anderon]

LAD 2nd...#4 at 5-1...2 mtp

[traynor]

Pocono Third
#2 Idle Hands
:)

[traynor]

Wow! I suppose you realize that software developers have as distinct a "signature" when they create GUIs as the old telegraphers had coding by hand with telegraph keys? Oddly enough, it looks a LOT like an app someone sent me a few months ago. Must just be a coincidence. Did you code that yourself? :)

[Anderon]

LAD 2nd...#4 at 5-1...2 mtp

Ran 2nd...$4.60

[Anderon]

Wow! I suppose you realize that software developers have as distinct a "signature" when they create GUIs as the old telegraphers had coding by hand with telegraph keys? Oddly enough, it looks a LOT like an app someone sent me a few months ago. Must just be a coincidence. Did you code that yourself? :)

Yes this is my software...I have given out screen shots before to people who know I'm for real !!

[Anderon]

Chur 2nd...#1 at 9/2...3 mtp

[traynor]

Very impressive win by the 6 at Pocono, harnessguru. My horse placed, yours showed. I wish I could claim place and show on the 2 ($4 and $14, respectively), but I only bet it to win. Better luck next time.:)

[traynor]

Woodbine 3rd, won at $4.00.
Finger Lakes 6th, won at $2.80.
The best is yet to come.
;)

[traynor]

Pocono 4th, #1 Pacific Dazzle.
:)

[Anderon]

Chur 2nd...#1 at 9/2...3 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

Bel 2nd...#2 at 2-1...3 mtp

[Anderon]

Bel 2nd...#2 at 2-1...3 mtp

Ran 4th

[Anderon]

Mon 7th...#6 at 8-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Chur 3rd...#7 at 5/2...3 mtp

[Anderon]

Mon 7th...#6 at 8-1...4 mtp

Ran 4th

[Anderon]

Chur 3rd...#7 at 5/2...3 mtp

Ran 3rd

[Anderon]

Cald 4th...#1 at 15-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Cald 4th...#1 at 15-1...4 mtp

Ran 4th

[Anderon]

Lad 5th...#7 at 8-1...3 mtp

[Anderon]

Bel 4th...#2 at 6-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Lad 5th...#7 at 8-1...3 mtp

Ran out

[Anderon]

Bel 4th...#2 at 6-1...4 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

Bel 5th...#1 at 4-1...3 mtp

[Anderon]

Cald 6th...#2 at 6-1...2 mtp

[Anderon]

Bel 5th...#1 at 4-1...3 mtp

Winner....$8.10....$4.30

[Anderon]

Cald 6th...#2 at 6-1...2 mtp

Ran 3rd

[Anderon]

Arl 4th...#1 at 4-1...5 mtp

[Anderon]

Bel 6th...#1 at 6-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Arl 4th...#1 at 4-1...5 mtp

Winner...$9.40...$4.80

[Anderon]

Bel 6th...#1 at 6-1...4 mtp

Ran 2nd in a photo....$10.80

[Anderon]

Chur 7th...#3 at 3-1...3 mtp

[Prado Can Ride]

Anderon not to be mean but why cant you post them before hand instead of like having 80 replies every day every 2 minute?:)

[Anderon]

Arl 5th...#8 at 10-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Chur 7th...#3 at 3-1...3 mtp

Ran 4th

[Anderon]

Lad 8th...#7 at 5-1...3 mtp

[Anderon]

Bel 7th...#3 at 7/2... 2 mtp

[Anderon]

Arl 5th...#8 at 10-1...4 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

Anderon not to be mean but why cant you post them before hand instead of like having 80 replies every day every 2 minute?:)

Do you understand it's live play and that I'm a toteboard handicapper...how can I possibly handicap a race before I see the toteboard action for each race?

[Anderon]

Lad 8th...#7 at 5-1...3 mtp

Ran Out

[Prado Can Ride]

Do you understand it's live play and that I'm a toteboard handicapper...how can I possibly handicap a race before I see the toteboard action for each race?

I know!!!! You could go in the War room...Hey, It dont bother me, some it do.

Aint got nothing against you and I wish you luck on every bet. Go get em!!

[Anderon]

Bel 7th...#3 at 7/2... 2 mtp

Ran 2nd....$4.20

[Anderon]

Chur 8th...#10 at 3-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

I know!!!! You could go in the War room...Hey, It dont bother me, some it do.

Aint got nothing against you and I wish you luck on every bet. Go get em!!

I appreciate it...but if it doesn't bother you then why say anything?

[Anderon]

Colonial Downs 4th...#8 at 9/2...3 mtp

[Anderon]

Arl 6th...#5 at 3-1...1 mtp

[traynor]

Indiana Downs, Charlestown, Lone Star, Mountaineer, Prairie Meadows all start in an hour or less. This is so much fun it seems a shame to stop it. Anyone interested in a late session?
:)

[Anderon]

Chur 8th...#10 at 3-1...4 mtp

Winner....$6.40....$4.40

[Anderon]

Lad 9th...#9 at 3-1...2 mtp

[Anderon]

Arl 6th...#5 at 3-1...1 mtp

Winner....$8.60....$4.60

[Anderon]

Lad 9th...#9 at 3-1...2 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

Cald 10th...#8 at 7/2...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Chur 9th...#7 at 6-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Cald 10th...#8 at 7/2...4 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

Arl 7th...#2 at 7/2...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Stockton 2nd...#2 at 2-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Chur 9th...#7 at 6-1...4 mtp

Winner....$14.60....$4.60 http://forum2.therx.com/images/smilies/money.gif http://forum2.therx.com/images/smilies/money8.gif

[Anderon]

Bel 9th...#11 at 4-1...1 mtp

[Anderon]

Arl 7th...#2 at 7/2...4 mtp

Ran 3rd

[Anderon]

Stockton 2nd...#2 at 2-1...4 mtp

Winner....$5.00....$2.60

[Anderon]

Bel 9th...#11 at 4-1...1 mtp

Winner...$10.60....$6.70

[Anderon]

Chur 10th...#4 at 10-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Stockton 3rd...#6 at 6-1... 2 mtp

[Anderon]

Chur 10th...#4 at 10-1...4 mtp

Ran 2nd...$10.40

[Anderon]

Stockton 3rd...#6 at 6-1... 2 mtp

Ran 2nd....$5.60

[Anderon]

Chur 11th...#1 at 3-1...5 mtp

[Anderon]

Stockton 4th...#8 at 6-1...3 mtp

[Anderon]

Chur 11th...#1 at 3-1...5 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

Stockton 4th...#8 at 6-1...3 mtp

Ran 3rd

[Anderon]

Arlington's 9th race will be my last post for tonight more than likely. I might try to be on for Hollywood later tonight so check back !!

[Anderon]

Arl 9th...#1 at 10-1...4 mtp

[Anderon]

Arl 9th...#1 at 10-1...4 mtp

Ran out

[Anderon]

Todays Recap


31 - Total Plays

8 - Win..........Profits.....$+9.10

5 - Place........Profits.....$+7.80

4 - Show........

4 - 4ths

10 - Outs

Total Profits....$16.90

Todays ROI.....+13.6% .......Based on $2.00 to W&P


Until Tomorrow....Stay Profitable

[formula_2002]

Todays Recap


31 - Total Plays

8 - Win..........Profits.....$+9.10

5 - Place........Profits.....$+7.80

4 - Show........

4 - 4ths

10 - Outs

Total Profits....$16.90

Todays ROI.....+13.6% .......Based on $2.00 to W&P


Until Tomorrow....Stay Profitable

Impressive how you can be profitable by just watching the betting. I was going to say "win pool bettin" but realize it may be more than that.
Hope it continues for you.

[Anderon]

HW 2nd...#4 at 4-1...6 mtp

[Anderon]

HW 2nd...#4 at 4-1...6 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

HW 3rd...#1 at 7-1...5 mtp

[Anderon]

HW 3rd...#1 at 7-1...5 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

HW 4th...#1 at 11-1...4 mtp

[Ron]

Maybe it doesn't work at night?

[Anderon]

HW 4th...#1 at 11-1...4 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

Maybe it doesn't work at night?

That seems to be the problem right now...but I stick with what brought me to the dance, day in and day out or day in and night out !! :D

[Anderon]

HW 5th...#2 at 2-1...5 mtp

[Anderon]

HW 5th...#2 at 2-1...5 mtp

Ran 2nd....$2.80

[Anderon]

HW 6th...#11 at 8-1...5 mtp

[Anderon]

HW 6th...#11 at 8-1...5 mtp

Ran 3rd

[PaceAdvantage]

I appreciate it...but if it doesn't bother you then why say anything?

Because the lunatics run the asylum down here, that's why....just ask your twin brother...

[Anderon]

HW 7th...#3 at 5-1...5 mtp

[Anderon]

HW 7th...#3 at 5-1...5 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

HW 8th...#9 at 16-1...5 mtp

[Anderon]

HW 8th...#9 at 16-1...5 mtp

Ran Out

[Anderon]

Todays Recap


38 - Total Plays

8 - Win..........Profits.....$-4.90

6 - Place........Profits.....$-5.40

5 - Show........

4 - 4ths

15 - Outs

Total Profits....$-10.30

Todays ROI.....-6.7% .......Based on $2.00 to W&P


Until Tomorrow....Stay Profitable

[cj]

What is HW? Hawthorne harness or something?

[Anderon]

What is HW? Hawthorne harness or something?

Stands for Hollywood race track !!

[Light]

HW 8th...#9 at 16-1...5 mtp


I was watching the board in this race and I don't see how you could miss the winner as a board play. In one click went from 11-1 to 5-1 then drifted back up to 9-1.With the big pools and big fields in Southern Cal,you can't ignore that kind of action.

[traynor]

I understand that you probably had a poor upbringing, and never learned the niceties of civilized behavior. I make allowances for that. I also understand that you have been rewarded for throwing a hissy fit any time anyone disagrees with you, or questions your "methods" in any way. In much the same way as "behaviorally-challenged" children learn to throw tantrums when things don't go according to their wishes, you have learned to blindly (and rather stupidly) attack anyone who disagrees with you.

First, your application is a joke. Your "sophisticated analysis" is based on a myth--that there is a consistent, "predictive" fluctuation in the mutuel pools that somehow "indicates the winner." What you are measuring--the ONLY thing you are measuring--(if in fact you are actually measuring anything, and not just massaging numbers and guessing) is opinion. With all due respect to your "30 years" of experience, you are chasing a rainbow, and using software to lend an aura of "science" to pursuing a myth. While the myth of "insider money" or "stable moves" or whatever other silliness you pretend to "analyze" may sit well with the helpless and hapless who believe "they" know who will win, so if only they can follow "their" bets, they will prosper, it is completely out of touch with reality.

That, Anderon, is a dead end street. It is predicated on the notion that someone, or a group of someones, knows the winner. And by detecting "moves" in the "patterns of fluctuations in the mutuel pools," you, too, can "know" that winner. They don't know, Anderon, they are guessing--just like you. Fluctuations in the mutuel pool only reflect the opinion of the bettors. You are chasing an illusion that "seems to work" in the short run, and extrapolating a long-term advantage from short-term results. (which, I might add, are not all that spectacular to begin with.)

You are a liar. While your comments may make you feel as if you are deflecting negative comments by the rather childish ploy of blindly attacking, I take offense at such obviously contrived attempts to elevate your own pathetic "status" by denigrating the work of others. You are a loser chasing rainbows, and taking the gullible along for the ride. That is only fitting.

Keep posting, Anderon, and keep those selections coming. I look forward to seeing them each day. And please, please, keep that support group of alter egos busy posting pithy comments. It is endlessly amusing to watch your antics, and considerably more entertaining than most of the stuff on television. Well, during the summer re-run season anyway. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

Anderon's prior comment about your service has been removed, as has the paragraph in your post above which amounted to a free advertisement, where you describe the success of your service.

I've had enough of this show....again....

I could barely stand it the first time around when it was named the "Ultimate Selector Hours of Power."

I thought US moved to the rx forum, but for some reason, he found his way back here, under his "twin brother's" nick, cause I guess he wasn't getting enough attention at rx. People over there actually learned to ignore him I suppose....

[PaceAdvantage]

Take this advice:

Traynor and Anderon are like oil and water. They don't mix. Traynor, I suggest you just let the guy continue to post picks like everyone else here....

I'm not really sure why you're all over him to begin with....

Yeah, he posts a lot of picks, but what can you do? Some days he wins, some days he loses. I assume he is showing a net flat bet loss overall. If I'm wrong, somebody please correct me with the proper statistics.

[shanta]

[QUOTE=PaceAdvantage] Traynor, I suggest you just let the guy continue to post picks like everyone else here....

I'm not really sure why you're all over him to begin with....

QUOTE]

If you want attention go where the "action" is and make NOISE.


Simple concept yet very effective.

Richie

[cj]

Stands for Hollywood race track !!

Oh, I see. That would be Hol to most bettors.

[traynor]

PaceAdvantage wrote: <Anderon's prior comment about your service has been removed, as has the paragraph in your post above which amounted to a free advertisement, where you describe the success of your service.

I've had enough of this show....again....>

Thank you, PA. That is more than fair, and shows considerable skill in forum moderation. I will refrain from posting on any of Anderon's threads in the future. Again, thank you for your fairness and impartiality.

A suggestion: Because this is a forum, rather than simply a sounding board for individuals, it seems that a survey regarding high numbers of multiple posts might be interesting. As a number of members have suggested, Anderon's post time selections--as well as other "live" selection sessions--might be more appropriate for the War Room, while the Selections threads might be more appropriate for those posting multiple races in advance. Some members may enjoy Anderon's selections posted on the Selections threads, while others may consider them useless unless viewed in real time. A survey might prove interesting.

I do not presume to tell you how to run your forum. I am simply suggesting that "live" postings of selections may be more appropriate in the War Room than on the Selections thread, and it might be interesting to have other views on the matter. The essence of a forum is community, and the opinions of that community may usefully be employed to shape and mold the forum. Within the constraints imposed by the moderator, of course. It is "your" forum, not "our" forum.
:) Good Luck, and again, thank you for your fairness.

[PaceAdvantage]

I've been asking the "mega picks posters" to use the War Room if they intend to do real time picks, but nobody listens to me....at least they confine themselves to a single thread....in the beginning, they were creating separate threads for each pick I believe, a total nightmare.

This whole board has been inundated with a lot of questionable characters lately....not sure what to do about it, if anything, yet....

[kmbgolf]

I dont understand what is wrong with him posting in the one thread it seems everybody comes into his thread just to hassle him

[PaceAdvantage]

Isn't it a fascinating occurrence that almost everyone who comes to Anderon's defense (with the exception of myself) usually owns a registration date of less than two months ago and a post count in the teens or less?

[banacek]

Isn't it a fascinating occurrence that almost everyone who comes to Anderon's defense (with the exception of myself) usually owns a registration date of less than two months ago and a post count in the teens or less?

I not sure if I am defending him, but I enjoy the posts, even more so when he put dollar values on them (whether they were for real or not). I've never bet any of them, but I get a kick out of it. I've tried the war room on a few occasions and haven't gotten much out of it. And if Anderon is putting out selections in the war room it would be much harder to keep track. Having them in one thread keeps it more organized. But I understand where you are coming from, PA.

As far as the war room goes, for the regulars it is a lot of fun I'm sure - they seem to have a lot of inside stuff going on that I don't know about and a lot of them sem to know each other pretty well. They always say hi, but after that it feels like I'm at the bar watching the big game with a bunch of people I don't know - I say the odd thing and sometimes get a response, sometimes not. Basically they are having their own conversation. And that's ok. Now if I was drinking while I was in there, I'd probably have a lot more fun.:D

[kmbgolf]

I am very new to this forum and horseracing but not message boards.

[shanta]

Isn't it a fascinating occurrence that almost everyone who comes to Anderon's defense (with the exception of myself) usually owns a registration date of less than two months ago and a post count in the teens or less?


I don't see the problem with him posting here.

I don't bet his picks and thought the crazy bet amounts being posted earlier on was kinda like a " due column" thing. However since he switched to tracking things "flat bet" I gotta respect him because his "totals" are right on the mark ( no fudging) and he does it EVERY day regardless of results.

He also shows quite a few days like 6/16 where he makes a LOT of bets ( I only focus on his win totals) and he loses say 1 -3 % on his money.

If it was say a Dave Schwartz posting the SAME results he and others would say it was a profitable day when factoring in rebates. I only give Dave as an example because of ALL the light he is shedding on VOLUME wagers. This IS a profitable way to wager: Bet a ton of horses / races - lose small to break even - WIN overall because of REBATES. Dave is definitely " cutting edge" on this man :)

Anderon isn't hurting anybody. Not selling anything. He's a fanatic bout racing
which is something we all have in common. lol

My opinion anyway

stay cool
Richie

[PaceAdvantage]

I am very new to this forum and horseracing but not message boards.

I'm not singling you out, just detecting a trend.

[Anderon]

Take this advice:

Traynor and Anderon are like oil and water. They don't mix. Traynor, I suggest you just let the guy continue to post picks like everyone else here....

I'm not really sure why you're all over him to begin with....

Yeah, he posts a lot of picks, but what can you do? Some days he wins, some days he loses. I assume he is showing a net flat bet loss overall. If I'm wrong, somebody please correct me with the proper statistics.

[melman]

I agree with your post the guy spends a lot of time posting those picks and I see no problem with him doing it. I'm not betting any of them either has I stick with the buggy horses but the guy does provide results and it is interesting to many just by looking at the number of view the "live" threads get. I would post up my "live" plays in the War Room but each to his own no problem. Also Shanta would like to thank you for the kinds comments you made to me in the War Room the other day. Very nice of ya.

[PaceAdvantage]

Anderon, when I say that I assume you have a flat bet loss overall, I am including Ultimate Bets selections in my assumption, as you both use the same program, correct?

[ryesteve]

Anderon, when I say that I assume you have a flat bet loss overall, I am including Ultimate Bets selections in my assumption, as you both use the same program, correct?
Maybe Anderon is the smarter twin, so it wouldn't be fair to penalize him for Ultimate's picks. By why isn't Anderon tallying all his picks? Why start with the +$50 day that's accounting for all the profit? Where are those prior crash & burn days that required $20,000 wagers just to keep the losses under 5 figures?

[Anderon]

Anderon, when I say that I assume you have a flat bet loss overall, I am including Ultimate Bets selections in my assumption, as you both use the same program, correct?

What does his wagers or selections have to do with me and my results? We both interpret the info differently and apply it in our own way.

[Anderon]

Maybe Anderon is the smarter twin, so it wouldn't be fair to penalize him for Ultimate's picks. By why isn't Anderon tallying all his picks? Why start with the +$50 day that's accounting for all the profit? Where are those prior crash & burn days that required $20,000 wagers just to keep the losses under 5 figures?

I would think you are correct on that assumption Ryesteve !! I would be happy to go back and tally those for you but I just thought I would start from the time I started to do the flat wagers. I will go back and do all those prior days from when I started posting at the 1st part of the month. I'll update that right here in a little while for everyone.

[Anderon]

Here is the updated selections report since I started posting on 6-5-06. There are now 14 days of selections in the record.

[PaceAdvantage]

It just occurred to me that we're busting Anderon's balls like crazy....why?

[Anderon]

I was watching the board in this race and I don't see how you could miss the winner as a board play. In one click went from 11-1 to 5-1 then drifted back up to 9-1.With the big pools and big fields in Southern Cal,you can't ignore that kind of action.

I agree with you light, he went from 11-1 to 5-1 at the 11 minute line as he got a $2134 put on him at that time. I do see this type of action on horses alot but it's not always a good thing just cause they got some money dumped on them all at once. You will go broke following that kind of thing, but you do have to take it into consideration in the whole scheme of the race. I was looking at the #3 with the #9 as the #9 was being played like I like in my numbers for what I do and I went with the #9. Of course I was kickin myself in the :bang: after that one because it would have made my night and then some for me. I hope you had it because I sucked at Hollywood Friday night and turned a winning day into a slight losing day and that's not good.

[Anderon]

Oh, I see. That would be Hol to most bettors.

I concur CJ and will change that to Hol for everyone in the future posts.

[Light]

I agree with you light, he went from 11-1 to 5-1 at the 11 minute line as he got a $2134 put on him at that time.... You will go broke following that kind of thing.... the #9 was being played like I like in my numbers

As an experienced board player myself and one of the few who can boast winning a handicapping contest just using the board itself while everyone else used the form,I disagree with your above statement in this particular instance.

In my experience,when a southern California track has a big field,getting that kind of action on a horse is allmost money in the bank. The best material I ever read on this was from Mark Cramer. He described the pattern here to a tee. The significance is that if there is a large enough field and pool,a horse has to be hit hard to show that kind of drop in odds,and you want to see the drift back up in odds. The drifting back up in odds,confirms inside action as opposed to a ML that is out of whack with public opinion. I was watching your #9 even before you posted him as your pick,but the drop from 30-15 seemed to be immediate and public,there was no fluctuation that I could see. That horse looked like a ML inaccuracy.

You say I will lose $ in the long run with the action the winner got,but I don't see that degree of action too often. I doubt there is any studies on this kind of action on these kind of horses. I told one of my racetrack buddies about this angle and he collected 6k,the first time he tried it,on a southern Cal horse who was 15-1 then went down to 5-1,then drifted back up. I don't play the board much anymore because,most of the time you don't get these juicy gifts and you can read too much into the board trying to squeeze action on most days when there really isn't any significant action.

[Anderon]

I'm not disagreeing with you but I have the last 6 years of every odds progression and money progression minute by minute on these tracks in my database and I see this type of stuff all the time, I'm not saying it doesn't work, because I use it too from time to time but if you do that all the time you'll end up broke especially if you follow the late money, it's the kiss of death. The #9 horse just had some other indicators that I use and I used him instead of the #3, which shows you the kind of night I was having. :D

[Light]

Please help me understand what your software board method is based on? Every board method I've read is either based on:

A) "Insider" money like Mark Cramer

B) Deficiencies in Place or Show pools like Dr.Z

C) Modeling wagering patterns that win like Robert Rowe

Which is yours most like?

[Anderon]

Please help me understand what your software board method is based on? Every board method I've read is either based on:

A) "Insider" money like Mark Cramer

B) Deficiencies in Place or Show pools like Dr.Z

C) Modeling wagering patterns that win like Robert Rowe

Which is yours most like?

Not sure how to answer this but here goes.
Mine is all self taught over many years of watching many patterns that develope thru the progression of the win place and show pools minute by minute. I also do the same thing for the exacta pool as I feel now days it's alot better to hide the money there than it is in the win place and show pools. I have read alot of the material which you listed but my software puts it all in a very easy manner for me to disect it and read it very easily. My software is always being changed and update by my programmer as I try new correlations and methods so it allows me to do everything on the fly. I now feel I can be very consistant with my selections. I now expect to win instead of hopeing to win like in years past. I wager with alot of confidence now. I hope this helps answer your question to some degree.

[Light]

I got the drift that your software follows a progression of minute by minute wagering.Like staring at the toteboard and jotting down changes.Something I used to do when I was bored at the track. But how does this help you win? What are you looking for? Apparently you aint looking at the $2134 wager put on that longshot horse in one minute last Friday at Hol.

[ryesteve]

I have the last 6 years of every odds progression and money progression minute by minute on these tracks in my database
What do you use to collect this data?

[Anderon]

What do you use to collect this data?

I have a feed from a live toteboard that's the fastest around but I have a special agreement with the provider to use it like I do. My program then takes the feed and runs it thru many correlations and calculations that I developed over the years to give me what I'm looking for.