View Full Version : Online Betting...Odds Drop..etc?
KingChas
06-20-2006, 11:34 AM
Maybe I'm off the wall on this.(maybe not). But in view of recent problems collecting money,strange odd drops etc.How safe is online betting-as far as privacy?If a player was showing consistant winnings couldn't his bets be passed on by employees of these servers.Text messaging to partners,duplication of bets,large wagers.....Would this explain some of the late odds drops?Anyone ever think about this happening?This would be the ultimate handicapping program.Let the winners do the work for you. ;) Anybody Hiring ? :D
Lets not forget those young kids would have gotten away with that pick-6 if they wouldn't have been greedy and just played one tick instead of five. ;)
GeTydOn
06-20-2006, 11:40 AM
How safe is anything these days? Online or elsewhere. Hasn't it just alwyas been the case that handicappers wait til the last minute to get their wagers in? Even back in the day before simulcastign and online wagering. All that late moneys gotta take the puters time to add up.
kitts
06-20-2006, 01:46 PM
In the '50s I worked for a bookie (we called them turf accountants then :o)) and I took phone action, racing and sports. You bet I shirt-tailed the best bettors sometimes making more than my wage by following the sharpies. And my boss had runners flying to Vegas to do any laying off. This was back in the day when Las Vegas and Caliente was it, so bookies were plentiful. It was estimated that ten times the legal gambling handle was wagered with bookies. So you can believe these offshore guys have their eyes open!
bigmack
06-20-2006, 01:56 PM
Lets not forget those young kids would have gotten away with that pick-6 if they wouldn't have been greedy and just played one tick instead of five.
Three
kitts,
What makes you think only off shore guys would do this? Certainly guys at TVG, YouBet, and AmericaTab can do the same thing.
PaceAdvantage
06-20-2006, 10:31 PM
How safe is online betting-as far as privacy?If a player was showing consistant winnings couldn't his bets be passed on by employees of these servers.Text messaging to partners,duplication of bets,large wagers.....Would this explain some of the late odds drops?Anyone ever think about this happening?
I don't know about it explaining the large odds drops we see from time to time, but to think this is NOT happening is naive at best. There are always going to be people with access to this info (info on who the winning players are, and what bets they are making). The prospect of easy money is a powerful motivator.
I'm unaware of any online company that explicitly states that your wagers are protected from the prying eyes of company insiders.
Not that they were following me lead, but I had a 4-1 shot with q minute to go today frop to 5-1 as the gate opened and ended up 9-5.
And the SOB lost to boot! :mad:
JustRalph
06-21-2006, 12:33 AM
Not that they were following me lead, but I had a 4-1 shot with q minute to go today frop to 5-1 as the gate opened and ended up 9-5.
And the SOB lost to boot! :mad:
was it one of those 54 second splits? :lol:
was it one of those 54 second splits? :lol:
No - Fort Erie. Love the Fort.
bigmack
06-21-2006, 01:02 PM
Love the Fort.
Then you have to accept flux in the odds as the total mutual per race there averages 25-40K TOTAL!
kitts
06-21-2006, 01:54 PM
cj-
You are right, of course. Did not mean to restrict my generalization.
dav4463
06-23-2006, 12:32 AM
Is it to the point where a handicapper is better off just playing the horses that they believe will offer value and just not worry about the odds? If you have a way of picking horses and you pick value horses for the most part anyway, you could just bet your horse ahead of time. Some will pay more than you thought, some will pay less, but if you can predict value reasonably well, then you won't have to watch the odds board so closely.
robert99
06-23-2006, 12:30 PM
Is it to the point where a handicapper is better off just playing the horses that they believe will offer value and just not worry about the odds? If you have a way of picking horses and you pick value horses for the most part anyway, you could just bet your horse ahead of time. Some will pay more than you thought, some will pay less, but if you can predict value reasonably well, then you won't have to watch the odds board so closely.
That's the beauty of person to person internet exchanges. You decide what odds you want to get and how much cash you want on at those odds. Once you get it that is it. Takeout is 5% maximum.
You can also back a horse at a high price and lay same horse at a low price, so what would the shirt-tailers do then?
HughJass
06-24-2006, 10:34 AM
Heavy hitter in collusion with offshore rebate shop. HH buys $50k win ticket on chalk. Race goes off, chalk shows no early speed in first 100 yards. HH has rebate shop cancel ticket during 12-second cancel delay. Odds on chalk back up 50%.
RaceIsClosed
06-24-2006, 10:40 AM
Heavy hitter in collusion with offshore rebate shop. HH buys $50k win ticket on chalk. Race goes off, chalk shows no early speed in first 100 yards. HH has rebate shop cancel ticket during 12-second cancel delay. Odds on chalk back up 50%.
Offshore shop loses 14 percent commission.
RaceIsClosed
06-24-2006, 10:42 AM
Is it to the point where a handicapper is better off just playing the horses that they believe will offer value and just not worry about the odds? If you have a way of picking horses and you pick value horses for the most part anyway, you could just bet your horse ahead of time. Some will pay more than you thought, some will pay less, but if you can predict value reasonably well, then you won't have to watch the odds board so closely.
You are correct, as I've noticed that many of my "tote" angles getting warped by this stuff.
However, another consideration is to bet exotics, as two-thirds of a pick-3 can't be toyed with this way, and the past-posters don't seem to do much with the exacta or trifecta pools.
RaceIsClosed
06-24-2006, 10:44 AM
kitts,
What makes you think only off shore guys would do this? Certainly guys at TVG, YouBet, and AmericaTab can do the same thing.
I caught an OTB teller doing this to my bets a long time ago. He said he liked that I picked "live" horses at a price.
RaceIsClosed
06-24-2006, 10:46 AM
I don't know about it explaining the large odds drops we see from time to time, but to think this is NOT happening is naive at best. There are always going to be people with access to this info (info on who the winning players are, and what bets they are making). The prospect of easy money is a powerful motivator.
I'm unaware of any online company that explicitly states that your wagers are protected from the prying eyes of company insiders.
Unless they are very disciplined, they'd have a hard time with me because they'd probably go broke during one of my dry spells, and since all races are created equally to me, you never know where my wins are going to come from.
Doing this is kind of like trying to follow someone through traffic.
Buckeye
06-24-2006, 12:17 PM
Look boys, we are all up against the other players (I don't care what they're doing, and as such, why care too much about the tricks they're trying to use to beat us?) They can't do it, if you are who I think you are. let the chips fall where they may. and kill them. Like they say in the Raid commercial, "Kills Bugs Dead". No need for techniques other than YOURS. You are up to it and they will die, I don't care how much money they throw at it, that's not the issue when it comes to who is the best.
Buckeye
06-24-2006, 12:37 PM
You are up to it and they will die, I don't care how much money they throw at it, that's just not the issue when it comes to who is the best.
Ask for instance John Henry.
Too old.
Bad Breeding and a gelding.
Japan had nothing to do with it!
There is no formula for success in this game, other than make it up yourself.
If you can do that, you will succeed.
John Henry would tell you the truth as I am, I win because I do. Thank God none of you agree with me!
Vegas711
06-24-2006, 03:44 PM
This whole problem could be solved or atleast minimized by making a few changes in how tracks send in their bets to the simulcast tracks. Canterbury as an example only sends in ALL their bets one time after ALL bets have been placed, if they would send them in multiple times like every 5 minutes there would be smaller degrees of odds changes. Canterbury is a small track I am just using them as an example becouse this may be the model all tracks use.
PaceAdvantage
06-24-2006, 07:49 PM
Ever see the Aflac commercial with the duck and Yogi Berra? I feel like the duck at the end of the commercial as I finish reading Buckeye's last two posts....
bigmack
06-24-2006, 08:53 PM
Buckeye do you throw these around as well?
"Slump? I ain't in no slump... I just ain't hitting."
"You can observe a lot by watching."
"It gets late early around here..."
"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore."
"If I didn't wake up I'd still be sleeping."
"I usually take a two hour nap from 1 to 4."
"If you don't know where you're going, you'll wind up somewhere else."
"The future ain't what it used to be."
"If people don't want to come to the ballpark, how are you gonna stop them?"
"Always go to other people's funerals otherwise they won't go to yours."
"You have to give 100 percent in the first half of the game. If that isn't enough, in the second half, you have to give what is left."
"Never answer an anonymous letter."
"Think?! How the hell are you gonna think and hit at the same time?"
"Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel!"
"Ninety percent of this game is mental, and the other half is physical."
AngelEyes
06-24-2006, 10:12 PM
That's the beauty of person to person internet exchanges. You decide what odds you want to get and how much cash you want on at those odds. Once you get it that is it. Takeout is 5% maximum.
You can also back a horse at a high price and lay same horse at a low price, so what would the shirt-tailers do then?
Right On Robert !!!!
Don't think that most North Americans appreciate or are even aware of this wonderful concept that is a way of life on your side of the ocean . Thanks UK.
vBulletin® v3.8.9, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.