pinnacle matchups for 06/16/2006

[formula_2002]

recap to date
243 plays, 57% winners, 8.25% profit!



track race name line line
BEL R3 8F PREMIUM TA -126
BEL R3 8F SURVIVALIS 110 play

BEL R7 8 OBERONS GI -112 play
BEL R7 8 WAIT IT OU -104

CD R11 1 8 BAILEYS IR 176
CD R11 1 8 PREDATORY -192 *play

HOL R4 8 ANZIYANS S 117
HOL R4 8 TOP THIS A -133 play

HOL R7 5 MOTH BALL 147
HOL R7 5 BEAR IN TH -163 *play

HOL R8 6F RACY ACK 152 play
HOL R8 6F JAGGED HEA -168

[ryesteve]

HOL R8 6F RACY ACK 152 play
HOL R8 6F JAGGED HEA -168
Did you know Racy Ack opened at -123? Huge shift... makes me wonder if this is another candidate for the vet's list...

[formula_2002]

Did you know Racy Ack opened at -123? Huge shift... makes me wonder if this is another candidate for the vet's list...
If RA was -123, the other horse was about +108 right?

Another case of "locksville".
Hey if it happens this often, it has the affect of reducing the games vig even less than the 2 1/2 to 3% it's at now..

[ryesteve]

+107... except when the spread is large, the sum is always -16

Sometimes when the line shifts like that, it happens all at once; which to me signals that it's one person with a very strong opinion. With this race, it's been a continual move ever since yesterday... that sounds more like a very poorly-kept secret that everyone is in on. The fact that Racy Ack is dropping $15k in claiming price after a close-up finish makes me even more suspicious.

[formula_2002]

+107... except when the spread is large, the sum is always -16

Sometimes when the line shifts like that, it happens all at once; which to me signals that it's one person with a very strong opinion. With this race, it's been a continual move ever since yesterday... that sounds more like a very poorly-kept secret that everyone is in on. The fact that Racy Ack is dropping $15k in claiming price after a close-up finish makes me even more suspicious.


lets see, a 16 point spread, 1/16= .0625
.0625/2= 3.125 vig..
close enough..

[formula_2002]

won the 1st play for 110.

[formula_2002]

won the 2nd play for 100.
If I can ever get my figures right for "The Quantum", I'll do a statistical analysis for all these plays..

[formula_2002]

Won the 3rd play. 3 for 3 with 3 remaining..

[formula_2002]

finals (interesting)
The 7th at HOL both match up horses did not finish the race.. Per Pinnacle "match-up" play rules,

"The winner of a matchup will be determined by the highest placed finisher involved in the matchup. If no horse finishes, the matchup will be graded no action. "

So that play is "no action"

with that in mind,
4 wins in 5 plays, for a $310 profit, total play was $637.

[formula_2002]

Did you know Racy Ack opened at -123? Huge shift... makes me wonder if this is another candidate for the vet's list...

RA finised 3rd, behind,the 2nd place finnisher JH,
Ra went off at 2.6-1, JH at 2.3-1

I had a +152 line on RA and a -168 line on JH.
based on those odds, RA book % in the match up was .397and .47 at the track.

The Pinnacle vig was 2.38% .

[ryesteve]

Another example of how matchups can offer you the opportunity to catch a huge break. Your horse breaks down, but you get a refund because you were lucky enough to have him take out the horse you were trying to beat. Crazy stuff.