A few questions before I spend another 30 years at this!

[jotb]

To all,

This is difficult to explain but I will try my best. I have been following this game for over 30 years which is 71.4% of my life. The average person that spends this amount of time in their own occupation would be quite successful at this point in life. For me, this is just the opposite. The average person would have jumped ship by now but not me. I still continue to chase this thing of our's. Many questions I need answers for. Why was I blessed with this passion and when will the passion go away? What excites me more, picking winners or cashing tickets? Is this game a hobby or a profession for me? Is there a light at the end of this tunnel or am I stuck in this darkness forever? Do I really want to be successful at this game and if so, what would be considered success? Lastly, if this is my mission in life, who is my mentor and who will be willing to take me under their wing and show me the way? These questions might sound weird to all of you but hopefully someone would be able to identify with me and explain what it is, I am searching for?

Thank you for taking the time,
Joe

[ranchwest]

The beautiful thing about horse racing is that it can be what you want it to be and what you make of it. You don't need a reservation, you don't have to wait until someone drops out before you can participate, you don't have to have a lot of money to start, you don't have to commit to specific days. You just do your own thing.

I got started in the 60's when there was a grocery store game that featured thoroughbred races on television. It was called "Let's Go to the Races".

My first wager was at Delta Downs the year it opened in the early 70's.

There's nothing like seeing horses come up the stretch. Oh, if I could see Alysheba being followed by Candi's Gold every day. :)

Most of your questions require your own self-evaluation. Success is what you want it to be. Some folks need frequent wins and play more favorites. Some like the big payoffs and are willing to wait. It's up to you. Do you want the money? Do you need the money? Is money your objective?

As for a mentor, I think most of the people here are willing to help folks out as long as the person is willing to work at it. I'm sure that after 30 years you know that you don't put a nickle in the slot and wait for the winner to pop out.

[so.cal.fan]

Joe,
Even if you were a billionaire, wouldn't you still play horses?
It's a great game, Ranchwest is right.
Remember the key to knowledge (about anything) ALWAYS has a question mark at the end of it!
I have spent the majority of my life as you have spent yours.
I do not regret it. I have had fun, excitement, met nice people.
Let's just go for another 30 years! Look at all we have learned and even more important.....look forward to learning even more.
;)

[BIG HIT]

Hi r/w is right been playing since 68 started playing harness frist then flats.Think there are time's we all wonder what we are doing .?My self love the longshot's use to be you could only play a track you could go to so you could only play 8 to ten race.
So figure if i hit one $20.00 horse all day be even and hit two make money and had action every race.Today is not the case.You can be more selective think every body would like to have a black box to hitem all and the dream goe's on.It's a lot like life it self you have your up's and down's.That's the beauty of it there is a million way's to win and lose. YOU HAVE A GREAT DAY

[Lefty]

Love is key: Love of the game and love of the Quest. We all want to make money but if you don't have the Love, then frankly, you can make more money doing something else.

[Tom]

Originally posted by ranchwest

I got started in the 60's when there was a grocery store game that featured thoroughbred races on television. It was called "Let's Go to the Races".



I used to get my Let's Go to the Races tickets every week at Star Market...and evey race I would lead all the way and get nailed at the wire. That gave me the perception that all races were won by closers. That image stayed with me for years and cost me dearly.
I was playing Fiinger Lakes where every race was won on the lead. A closer was the horse running third.
Maybe I could sue Star Markets for the money I lost? And mental anguish?

[so.cal.fan]

Tom:

What a horrible experience for you!
You must sue those bad people. Who knows how many millions you would have made if not for their EVIL contest?
Was anyone else traumatized like Tom by the "Let's go to the Races" contest?
Any good lawyers on board? Let's form a group and go after them!
I'm sure PA or Boxcar can get us on the O'Reilly Factor! LOL

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Tom:

What a horrible experience for you!
You must sue those bad people. Who knows how many millions you would have made if not for their EVIL contest?
Was anyone else traumatized like Tom by the "Let's go to the Races" contest?
Any good lawyers on board? Let's form a group and go after them!
I'm sure PA or Boxcar can get us on the O'Reilly Factor! LOL

Yes, several times I had the numbers for every horse in the race except one. Of course, that horse was 7 off the pace at the top of the stretch and would win in a photo finish. If it was the big race, it paid hundreds of dollars if I recall correctly.

[GameTheory]

To try to answer some of the original questions more directly, it sounds as though you have not reached the success you have been looking for. I think it takes about 10 years to become an expert at anything, and horse racing is no exception. Is your "level of success" (whatever that means) the same as it was 20 years ago? 25 years?

If so, I would dare say you may be trapped in a cycle of repeating the same mistakes over and over, something we all do in areas of our lives. In which case, if you want to get different results for the next 30 years, you're going to have to change what you've been doing (sometimes the problem is you are always changing things -- never sticking with one thing long enough). So record-keeping (or taking a fresh look at your records if you keep them) is key and some sort of re-evaluation of your approach. I'd recommend getting some third party advice if possible from someone who "isn't so close to it" as you are. Sounds like Steve Fierro's book may be for you...

[Rick]

jotb,

Don't give up on it. You're talking to the right kind of people here. It will take a lot more effort to win than it would take to be successful at some other pursuit but it's a lot more satisfying. I've made large salaries working at high tech jobs before but I'd still get more enjoyment out of winning at horse racing than I ever got out of making "the big bucks". Just this last week I scored on an $81.80 winner and celebrated more than I ever did when I got a job promotion. My win on War Emblem in the Kentucky Derby is another thing I'll always remember. My success evolved over about 20 years after I met a couple of true professionals in Las Vegas. If you're interested in the story you can contact me personally. Best of luck.

[Bubbles]

Hey....

Jotb, I haven't spent very much time being incredibly interested in the Sport of Kings (A few years.), but I do know this: You have to have fun. It sounds childish, but it is true. For some, fun is winning hundreds of dollars playing an unheard-of exacta and singing: "I knew something you didn't know, doo-dah, doo-dah(:D )." For others, it's simply absorbing the atmosphere of the track. You have to find the balance of these two that works for you, and then, you're guaranteed to have the best meets of your life. Sounds corny, but it works.

[anotherdave]

We all have passions. Racing is one of mine. Some people golf, some ski, some hang glide. Those would cost me a lot more than a bad year at the races. (And I golf worse than I did 20 years ago).

I agree with a complete reanalysis of how you handicap, especially with good record keeping. I was a winning handicapper until the Beyers started going in the form. It took me a few years to figure out I had to try out a different approach. I completely revised my handicapping. The last couple of years were pretty good - this year I've been off form, but I think (hope) it is just a blip - and the year isn't over yet. But maybe it is time for another reanalysis for me. Who knows.

As long as you are betting at a level you can afford and you are having a good time, enjoy yourself. And keep learning - the game changes constantly. You have to change with it.

AD

P.S. Rick I'd love to hear the story you mentioned too, if you're willing to share it

[Lefty]

Rick, I think we'd all be interested in your story about the two pros. Sounds fascinating.

[Rick]

Well, I've probably told most of this before but here goes. When I was living in Las Vegas in the late 70's I met two guys from New York who had both played horses for a living. One continued to do so and the other took a job as a computer programmer working with me and continued to play part time. As a result of this I got to research a large number of methods as part of a team with access to huge numbers of back issues of the racing form.

When I started out, most of the ideas were theirs and I just helped check them and learned a lot from what worked and what didn't. After a while, I got a pretty good feel for what kinds of ideas might work, mostly using contrarian thinking in specific situations, and came up with some ideas of my own that were profitable. One of the guys had all of his private spot plays marked in the forms that I used for research. I reverse engineered his methods and started playing them myself. The other guy specialized mostly in claims and freely shared his ideas which I refined to make more profitable. That's still an area (claims) that has a lot of promise today. Back then, recency was a big positive and most of the methods involved 5-10 day rules. Now, that wouldn't be a good way to go. In fact, if I were playing spot plays I'd probably look for layoff horses now.

Later on I used a lot of the positive factors I'd found in successful spot plays to develop a point count method that worked very well at all California tracks and maybe half of the others. Early speed was a big factor in that method.

As the handicapping information available over the years got better and I got the necessary computing capabilities, I started working on a generalized handicapping method. Right now, I'm pretty happy with what I've got and haven't made any changes for quite some time. But that previous experience checking spot plays was most valuable to me because it saved me so much time by not checking things that weren't promising. Without that kind of background the task is just too overwhelming.

If I were starting now, I'd probably get a good database and check all of the factors I could think of singly and in various combinations. With that advantage, you could probably do in months now what it took me years to do before.

[Amazin]

Jotb

It's an important question that you ask.Why do it if there is no reward?If I were your analyst I would say because you love it.Its a no brainer.Why else would you do it for 30 years.And winning is not necessarily the point.It's a release from life's stresses and we all need one psychologically.It's a fantasy world where there is no George W. or Bin. And everyday is fresh,it doesn't matter that you've lost for 30 years.Today could be your day.It's the jouney that's fun.The goal would be anticlimactic.Think about it .If you won big,you'd want to do it all over again. But the win can't sustain you,its only a few hours.It's just like life.The jouney is the meat and potatoes.It sustains you.

[Dave Schwartz]

Rick,

Thanks for relating the story. Very believable.

Dave

[Rick]

One more bit of advice. After you've found a decent method, shop around for the tracks that it works best at and play those. That will improve your ROI more quickly than refining your method. And don't just try the tracks with the lowest takeouts. Sometimes the competition is a bigger factor. For example, my local track, Turf Paradise, has one of the highest takeouts in the country (20%), but has always been an easy track to beat. Very few serious pros and lots of tourists make for generous overlays.

[Jaguar]

A day at Belmont is like a day in Heaven.

When I had my big win at Santa Anita in the early 90's, the only thing that could compare would be winning Le Mans.

I am always trying to be on the winning horse- what a goal, what a dream. Wish life were longer.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Aussieplayer]

jotb,

I have a few thoughts that came to me for you - in no particular order:

You sound like a "frustrated player" rather than a content one. Am I right? If so, don't worry, I know what that's like.

So I speak from THAT particular perspective: ie. You're doing it for the money (or originally did), you're not making it, and you're frustrated. Therefore, talk of enjoying the races etc. are not going to help. If that ain't you - ignore this post.

If that is you: take time out. Do something else. Buy some handicapping books you've never read, from good authors. Go to the Handicapping Library on this forum & pick some books with favourable review from there.

Definitely get Steve Fierro's book, (only about the best book on racing as a business that has ever been written!), "The 4 Quarters." Go through it sloooowly.

You'll learn (and if you ever talk to Dick S. he'll hammer it into like never before), WHY it is that you need to keep good records: because there are no truths that you'll read or hear about that are universal. "Never bet a layoff" or "always bet a layoff" or "sometimes bet a layoff" are all true!! Only your records will show you what is true for you!
Oh, get Dick's book by the way. Has good mind stuff. "New pace handicapping." I owe him (yeah alright, & Dave) a lot. So I have to say nice stuff about 'em :D

Get Handicapping Magic. Worth getting just for his insight into playing in the real world.

Mark Cramer once said to me, "some handicappers have been playing for 20 years with only 1 year of experience, they've just repeated that year 20 times."
Mark Cramer by the way, is an underpreciated (is that a word?) writer. He is a living legend, with a brilliant mind. Maybe his c&x report would be something you'd like.

This board is SUPERB, so stick around. The people here are friendly, with a variety of opinions. Discussions are always enlightening. I even like the people I disagree with, which simply isn't very often!!

I agree with whoever said, "get a database." Honest. You'll save a fortune in the most precious commodity of all....TIME.

Dave's HSH gets good review, and has a good community (communal?) thing going. And check out HTR & Allways which have good reps. around here. Check out Gordon Pines products, (The capper, Betting odds thing, & Bettor keep track).
From what people tell me from over where you are, Bettor keep track is THE record keeping software.

You can afford all this stuff: just stop betting for a while.

Cramer also says that methodology is (should be) an extension of personality. Ponder on that & come up with what fits you best.

Oh. Put your thoughts (why I'm doing this etc.) down on paper. Honestly does make a diff. More of that in Fierro's book.

You might (after all this) deside to just make racing a hobby, and that's great too!! But I suspect your question came from the person I described before....frustrated!

Hope you're encouraged. But that ain't enough either. Get to work on the things that will help you - the things I (& others) have mentioned.

Bless ya stacks
Steve
AP

[Aussieplayer]

I forgot to say: this stuff really does work!!

Has for me. To no end. :)

Cheers
AP

[Rick]

AP or others,

What's the least expensive way to get a large database of past races? Although my method works great now, I think it would be fun to test out some ideas quickly and inexpensively. The research I've done in the past was actually more enjoyable for me than playing a winning method is now.

[jotb]

Hello all,

I want to thank everyone from the forum that took the time to share their advice, experience, and kind words of encouragement.

Yes Ranchwest, I do want and need the money. This game is my only means of survival and has been for many years. Do I have any idea how much I won or lost? Definately not! What I can tell you for sure is that I am in the red but somehow I managed to survive to this point in life without a full time occupation. Don't get me wrong, I have tried to work in other industry's throughout my life but the occupations were extremly dull and shortlived. I am the type of person that always needs challenge. I seem to only find this in horse racing.

So.cal Fan: Yes, this is the greatest game played outdoors. Would I continue to play the races if I were a billionaire? I would be a liar if I said no to this question. I can tell you for sure that if I were a billionaire the thrill of picking a winner would have the same feeling for me as I feel today.

Lefty: The love for the game is there and I know that for sure. I remember the first time I went to the New York Public Library somewhere around the age of 14. I headed to this particuliar library at the time because they were the only ones that had the most literature on the subject Horse Racing. Do you remember when you were a child and you could not wait until that special present, you wanted so much finally came? Well, that was me whenever I opened a book on the subject of Horse Racing. There was always that special type of feeling (warm, peaceful, and exciting) whenever, I headed to the book shelf (798). I would pray heading to that shelf, hoping the book was there. If this is not love then I don't know what love is.

Game Theory: Good question on success! Part of my success in this game has to be the footwork I put in. I truely believe that the foundation is there but the rest of the house is missing. Has my thinking changed over the years? Handicapping the races, understanding the thoroughbred, visualization, discipline,(for the most part) and focus have dramatically changed for the best in the last 5 years. Money management and record keeping are extremly poor traits that I retain. The art of wagering has always been a liability for me. I always made handicapping the #1 priority. I always thought if I was able to select enough winner's each day it would overcome the money management thing. The reality does set in when you finish the day with a substantial amount of winner's and can't understand why the pockets are nearly empty. Your advice on Steve Fierro's book will be taken.

Bubbles: What do you mean by having fun? Like fishing, cooking for guest, spending time with family. Is this the type of fun you mean? If so, I would have to honestly answer no. Horse racing and fun is like oil and vinegar for me. The atmosphere at the track is not same as the atmosphere in the morning on the backside for this horseplayer. I find that I am totally serene in life, when I find myself at the rail in the wee hours of the morning. When I invest in the afternoon it is always serious business and most of this is done in the comfort of my home. There are 2 reasons for this: Self Control and focus. For many years,I wagered at the racetrack and in those years, I found that I had to play every race on the card. It was not until I realized that racing was here before me and will continue on after I'm gone. There is always tomorrow! Once the in-house wagering began I found myself confined to my house more and less at the track. At the same time, I learned how to play less races each day. This helped overcome the self control issue for the most part. There are occasions today when the self control issue can bring me back to my knees. At least I continue to work at it and hopefully, I will get it completely right in the next 30 years. I feel that my focus level is much higher than at the track. There are just too many distractions at the racetrack which can make me feel overwhelmed at times.

Anotherdave: I agree with you 110% about those damn Beyer numbers. They have become a huge factor once I break down the contender's from the pretender's. I'm started to think that I'm using his numbers as a shortcut. The best part is, I'm convinced most of the number's are off and for a reason. Anyway, my solution is if you can't beat them join them. This is why I decided to devise my own set of numerical ratings.

Amazin: I love the game and I know all of you understand that. No one in life would spend 30 years at something if the passion was not thereespecially with this game. In this game the valleys outscore the peaks but it is the occasionally peak that turns that fantasy into a reality. Someone once told me that "the best high in life is being straight" and as truthful as this might be, I still feel the best high in life is when I just capped a winner.

Aussieplayer: Frustrated player is exactly how I feel. I have poured my heart and soul into the game. The game is what keeps me alive each day. I guess the frustration is there because I cannot consider myself a professional person after all these years. This is difficult to explain but I will try the best I can. You can be a professional lawyer, doctor, ballplayer, accountant and in each of these professions you need the skills, knowledge, goals, and motivations just like handicapping. However there is one difference. Each of the above professions are guaranteed a salary. In the handicapping profession there is no guaratee of financial rewards. It was my own free will and choice that I wanted to be a professional handicapper in life. There was no one that had to twist my arm when it came to this choice. In order for me to label myself a professional handicapper I must achieve each year a net salary otherwise I am just another horseplayer in the crowd without a REAL PROFESSION. Aussieplayer I was wondering what your thoughts would be on the different style of rider's between the USA and Australia.

Rick: Loved the story you shared. Thank you I needed to hear that.

Best regards to all and thank you all for taking the time to read this long reply.

Joe

[GR1@HTR]

P U N T

[Tom]

and it is an oncoming train! <G>

The difference between a winner and a whinner may only be a couple of bets a week. Before you make a bet ask yourself
"Why am I making this bet? Do I have an insight into this race that others may not? Am I getting over-generous odds on a logical contender? Am I board sitting here and need the action? "
Write down why you are betting and after the race, writhe down why you lost or why you think you won. Was there a factor that you thought was very important to the outcome that turned out to not be that improtant after all? Did you overlook something? Did you have bad racing luck?
Whatever, after about 50 bets, look over your notes and see if there is something that shows up a few times. Maybe you are placing too much emphasis on days away, or weight, or jockey....
maybe you are ignoring a real important factor. Keep a track profile and compare your bets to it - are 80% of races by E or EP horses, and 80% of your bets are P or S horses?
Focus on handicpaping the race, not the horses. My biggest breakthrough was when I started setting up the pace scenario of the race, then looking for contenders who fit the race. Before that, I picked horses and tried to rationalize that they would overcome the pace. Typically, my place horses in exacta are found based on their pace running style, not their names or class, or jockies, or whatever. I will put P horses in the place hole that I don't really like on paper, just because they are P horses.
Good luck, and you will find a lot of good ideas here.

[Rick]

jotb,

I understand your frustration. You're better than 95% of all the horseplayers out there, but you need to be better than 99% to make any money at it. You could probably do just about anything else you want to and be successful, but you don't want to. I'm familiar with that feeling.

I have made 6 figure incomes before and been extremely unhappy. After I decided to do what I wanted to instead of what everyone else wanted me to, I became a lot happier person.

And, guess what? Everything worked out OK. My wife is a wonderful person who shares the same philosophy. We've tried several things that were unconventional and landed on our feet even though I wouldn't call them altogether successful. The experiences to be gained are worth the effort. As a result of all of that, I bought myself enough time to develop winning horse racing and sports betting methods and I'm still more proud of that than I am ofanything I accomplished in my working life; and I could drop some impressive names if I wanted to.

Anyway, your best attribute is your tenaciousness (did I spell that right?). Do whatever you need to do to get by but "hold on tight to your dream" (ELO). You have a winner's philosophy and you'll get there. Keep asking questions here and you'll probably get what you need to fill in the gaps.

[Aussieplayer]

Rick, sorry - not sure about your situation. But down here, you can simply buy it! (expensive though). If you can't where you are, I'd be surprised very greatly, and you guys should do something about it by hassling the vendors!

Cheers
AP

[Richard]

It's all a rather unique challenge,isn't it?