Sprints

[Harmonicaslim]

Was wondering the opinions on which software programs fare the best on dirt sprints above other types of races? Thanks.

Slim

[shanta]

Hey Slim,

If you play the SoCal circuit you might wanna check out " RaceMaker" software.
http://www.posttimedaily.com/software/racemaker/index.php

"Rmania" is the programmer and posts selections from time to time in the selections area and is profitable over a long stretch. The proof is kind of in the pudding.

I don't use the software because there is no demo to test it for yourself before buying and in today's market that is big turnoff.

I believe the software is only geared for SoCal sprints but don't sue me if I am mistaken.

hope this helps
Rich

[kitts]

Not software, but a distillation of an article written by a player that claims great success in srpints. I am going to copy it here:


Recency:
Claimed horse must come back within 35 days
Reject any comebacks in 1-8 days with 9-15 days very iffy
Comeback in 16-30 days requires 1 Qualified workout
Comeback in 31-44 days requires two workouts, one Qualified
Reject all returning over 45 days
Reject all second race after layoff

Qualified workouts
Workouts must be 3-5f only
Must be in the top 40% of all works that day unless there were lessthan 15 horses total
Any "b" (breezing") work is Qualified
Any training track (local or even SLR) is qualified.

Sprint races only (5.5f to 7f); reject if last race on turf, reject if last race is not

SA,HOL,DMR,FPX

Three methods as follows:

#1
Last race on lead or within 1/2 at 2nd call RETAINED to 3rd call. (stretch call)

#2
Won previous race and last race had lead at 1/2 and 3rd call and retains or increases that lead

#3
Gain two POSITIONS between 2nd and 3rd call or 3rd call to finish.

Play the single qualified horse. If 2 are qualified, bet both and/or exacta box (if value is there.)

If more than 2 are qualified, the author offers some tiebreakers which are obvious

Obviously, #1 and #2 are visible to the public but #3 can produce some longshots since a horse that gained like from 7th to 5th and lost lengths doing it is not going to look good.

[46zilzal]

Superstar Lebo at 30/1 went wire to wire in the Belmont 2nd today.......And who thinks that all the speedy ones are overbet!

[cj]

What indication did youhave before the race that he was a "speedy one"?

[46zilzal]

velocity and energy distribution AND a bit of luck reading into the potential therein. babies that project they will be close to the lead at the second call usually are maturing into a good effort. OBVIOUSLY the favorite would be the #4.

[46zilzal]

that potential was hidden since the 3 was the only one that had run versus a very fast pace. This has been a source of longshots for a long time now in sprints.

[cj]

I hear you, but it is pretty obvious looking at your graph why he was 30-1. Fast pace or not, he was very far behind and rated near the bottom of the early speed ratings.

[46zilzal]

I hear you, but it is pretty obvious looking at your graph why he was 30-1. Fast pace or not, he was very far behind and rated near the bottom of the early speed ratings.
we agree to differ.

[bigmack]

Anything can happen with maturing 2's but to say that you figured him to have early would be a stretch after his first outing. Late run - yes - but going wire2wire without being a bit surprised is hard to believe.

[46zilzal]

Anything can happen with maturing 2's but to say that you figured him to have early would be a stretch after his first outing. Late run - yes - but going wire2wire without being a bit surprised is hard to believe.
one thing: maiden races are like NO OTHERS. when they project a significant improvement they are telling you they are "getting it." The higher percent median tells one the earlier they will be POSITIONALLY. predicted that right here.

[bigmack]

All the power to ya 46z. But if that's how you get 2yr olds @ 30-1 you may have to go through another 30 to see another one skip through on top @ 30.

In any event, nice call.

[46zilzal]

All the power to ya 46z. But if that's how you get 2yr olds @ 30-1 you may have to go through another 30 to see another one skip through on top @ 30.

In any event, nice call.
of course I know that, but the longest prices come from contests like that one.

[headhawg]

one thing: maiden races are like NO OTHERS. when they project a significant improvement they are telling you they are "getting it." The higher percent median tells one the earlier they will be POSITIONALLY. predicted that right here.I've tried to learn as much as I can from this board ever since I found out about it. But 46, once -- just once -- I would like to see some PRE-race analysis.

[46zilzal]

would that CHANGE the numbers? No

Would that change the LOGIC?...no

second call dominance is not anything new. Discovering this way is not new.

I could post LOTS of races where the same logic did not work but I handicap for myself and usually only right up to the time of the contest as I am looking after several tracks at once.

[bigmack]

Much to my chagrin I have to agree with 46z. Pre-posting 15-1 or better when you feel you have a valid argument is silly. I thought I had a valid argument to make on a 72-1 this am and it happened to win. Would I ever consider pre-posting it? - never.

Besides headhawg don't chase 46z away from talking about racing - it's refreshing and it beats the alternative of politics.

Right 46z?

[46zilzal]

Besides headhawg don't chase 46z away from talking about racing - it's refreshing and it beats the alternative of politics.

Right 46z?

it is FAR FAR easier to verify

[bigmack]

it is FAR FAR easier to verify
Now we're talkin. Starting a thread of hosses names now this.

Wow 46z it's a breath of fresh. Thanks.

[cj]

I certainly agree with the premise. I make an early speed rating, and use it almost exclusively in maiden races. Here is today's 3rd at CD, and it is also posted on my site:

Race 3: 7.0 Furlongs Dirt

1 Maximumcoverage 10-1 NA 35
2 Louisville Sam 8-5 PS 57
3 Special Run 5-2 1st
4 Mr. Brazil 15-1 NA 64
5 Colsanshe 5-1 1st
6 Derby Goer 2-1 NA 59

The 4 won and paid over $50. You had to get past the 1st timers of course, but I don't pay them much attention in MCL races. They were pretty dead on the board anyway.

[46zilzal]

Now we're talkin. Starting a thread of hosses names now this.

Wow 46z it's a breath of fresh. Thanks.

I actually learned this angle from a good friend who is a trainer. He reminded me that horses have degrees of their brand of intelligence: some are quick learners, others have low aptitudes. He used to point out to me the ones that were showing the kind of improvement that signaled they were ready to have their pictures taken. I began to review lots of races to see if their pace profile will tip me off to the same event and, sure enough, in a series of 80 races at differing race courses, the ones that PROJECTED to the top three second call today, not specfically ran to the best 2nd call, but projected, were winning at a rate of over 40%. Many of these were hidden in that their final beaten lengths were too high for most to consider.

The longest priced one ever was at Fort Erie last Summer at about 40/1 was the same profile.


6 Red Penny Regina Sealock 80.70 28.00 14.80
11 Littlemisappealing Christopher Griffith 5.80 6.10
7 Sea Jet Regan Knowles 18.50

[bigmack]

CJ

I've got the 2 and 6 in that race having a considerable early advantage over the 4 and a really crummy late pace rating for Mr. B.

How did you derive a 64 on Mr. B?

[cj]

It is based on his pace figure at the second call, his position at the first call, and the distance and surface of the race he ran in.

[cj]

I don't have PPs in front of me at work, so I can't see the early position the horse's had.

For pace figures, I had the following:

2: 68, 58, 57
4: 66
6: 70

The 4 earned his at 5.5f, while the 6 earned his at 7.5f. That is about all I can tell you now without the PPs.

[46zilzal]

6 Red Penny Regina Sealock 80.70 28.00 14.80
11 Littlemisappealing Christopher Griffith 5.80 6.10
7 Sea Jet Regan Knowles 18.50
this one was improving early

[bigmack]

the ones that PROJECTED to the top three second call today, not specfically ran to the best 2nd call, but projected, were winning at a rate of over 40%.

No argument with that appproach. I think anyone who utilizes projected numbers and know how to work with them do ok in this game.

[Tom]

Thanks for the 3 methods.

[shoelessjoe]

Headhawg we have been trying to get 46 to pre post a race on another site for quite awhile now but have had no luck.He has some good insight which a lot I dont agree with but for once I would like to see him pre post a race as well.Shoeless

[Harmonicaslim]

Appreciate all of these responses. Good luck to all.


Slim

[Free Bird]

When tracks favor speed as they do in SoCal the horse with the fastest half mile pace fig has a big edge and should never be ignored. They are often overlays as well. This is especially true in maiden and low level claimers Of course that will all end in the new world of Polytrack.

[Tom]

I have a program similar to the one 46 posts - his ideas work well in that area. Best way to learn it is not to have him post pre-race, but for ME to handicap it pre-race and see it first hand. He urned me on to Philly and Fort Erie orignally - then CJ's figs started looking like gangbusters at both tracks.
I'm even heading down the Thruway to FE Tuesday for some live action banking, er, betting! :D

[cj]

Hey Tom,

Saw a top speed point maiden won at the Fort today and paid $12+, and even better, one won the 2nd at the Thumb paying $59. I'll assume you are smiling today.

[andicap]

46,

OK, if you're 69.3% median rating refers to THE PACE Lebo ran against I understand how you could have had this horse. HTR showed the Quirin style PAC rating for the race at 104 and the Final PER at 93. It was a very very fast early-slow final race shape.

If that's the case, forget the rest of this post.
If you're using Lebo's paceline itself. I still can't see it.
Lebo ran about 25 seconds to the 1st call and 50 seconds to the 2nd, maybe a couple of ticks slower. Finished in almost 103.
BUT raw velocity -- no variants or distance adjustments so that may have affected your ratings at today's 5.5f race. If that's the case, OK as well. I understand.

If not, Lebo went

F1-53.21
F2-52.94
EP --53.07
at 10 feet per length.
F3 -- 52.52.

That's a very even distribution of energy, a real compression line.

But I don't see how these velocity figs project to a horse running close at the 2nd call even in ENERGY FIGURES (which I do understand about.)

Percent medium is F1+F2/F1+F2+F3
106.15/158.67.
That's 66.90%.

For the pace of the race
60.55
55.46
47.48

116.01/163.48 was 70.97

But again, unadjusted.

[Tom]

Love the Fort!

[46zilzal]

46,

OK, if you're 69.3% median rating refers to THE PACE Lebo ran against I understand how you could have had this horse. HTR showed the Quirin style PAC rating for the race at 104 and the Final PER at 93. It was a very very fast early-slow final race shape.

If that's the case, forget the rest of this post.
If you're using Lebo's paceline itself. I still can't see it.
Lebo ran about 25 seconds to the 1st call and 50 seconds to the 2nd, maybe a couple of ticks slower. Finished in almost 103.
BUT raw velocity -- no variants or distance adjustments so that may have affected your ratings at today's 5.5f race. If that's the case, OK as well. I understand.

If not, Lebo went

F1-53.21
F2-52.94
EP --53.07
at 10 feet per length.
F3 -- 52.52.

That's a very even distribution of energy, a real compression line.

But I don't see how these velocity figs project to a horse running close at the 2nd call even in ENERGY FIGURES (which I do understand about.)

Percent medium is F1+F2/F1+F2+F3
106.15/158.67.
That's 66.90%.

For the pace of the race
60.55
55.46
47.48

116.01/163.48 was 70.97

But again, unadjusted.


PROJECTON, Maidens and a little luck and as much as I admire Dr. Quirin, his methods would have never have had that one. NEVER.

One of the CLASSIC Sartin maneuvers: horses that ran versus a much faster pace NEXT time out.