Quality of This Year's 3yos

[OTM Al]

We have made it through the TC series now and shockingly the annual cry of weak crop never once sprung up. Not sure if that is because this looks like a crop whose top runners are pretty well evenly matched or because the standout has been rare this year. That aside, the Belmont seemed to me to be one of the more evenly matched races top to bottom (well maybe not Double Galore, but certainly the other 11). The question I'm rolling around in my head though is will we see any of these horses win a Grade 1 race in the future? I think there are a couple that could, but I wouldn't bank on any for sure considering the list of those that should be returning from the sidelines starting with Discreet Cat, Stevie Wonderboy, Henny Hughes, Sweetnorthernsaint and Bernardini. The first 3 are a little hard to give the nod to coming back as they are, but SNS and Bernardini should both relish the 1 1/8 m distance most of our Gr1s have dropped to. To me the strength or weakness of a crop can only be determined later on, so I guess we'll see if these were good or just evenly matched.

[dccprez]

Strikes me that this crop is just a little more promising than those of the past 3-5 years. It's more evenly balanced. And with most of the "name" 3-YO's pointing to the Travers we could be looking at an excellent renewal .

And consider this; other than Lava Man, Brass Hat and Electrocutionist (did I spell that correctly?) what other older horses are out there to challenge these youngsters?

I think Bernadini, Brother Derek, Stevie and a few others may prove to be tough enough to handle the handicap division later this year.

(Of course I'm also the guy who's still waiting for Point Determined to get his act together...)

[ceejay]

It does look like a pretty well-balanced division. I wouldn't be surprised if one steps up in the fall wt-for-age classics either.

[Tom]

I think it is washed up already and most will go to anything of any importance beyond answers inf Trivial Pursuit.

Bernardino-Bernardi - whose it - will not win again is my prediuction.
Jazil will not beat older horses, and the one who placed in the Belmont might win a few more - might beat older.
The ones that dropped out after the Derby are kaputsville.

Great crop if you count only one race a year, but I am not not impressed with anything.

[Valuist]

There could be a good one going tomorrow: Minister's Bid. He destroyed a good field of maidens at Keeneland and earned a 97 Beyer. He didn't do it the easy way that most big Keeneland winners do; he closed wide down the middle of the track. He could end up burning money like a lot of horses off big Kee wins; but if he wins, look for the hype to start. Two words came to mind after watching his win: certifiable monster.

[Prado Can Ride]

Bernardino-Bernardi - whose it - will not win again is my prediuction.


I couldn't disagree more Tom, Bernadini won young and should win for a while!
But we all have oppinions and we wont know for a while:)

[Tom]

I couldn't disagree more Tom, Bernadini won young and should win for a while!
But we all have oppinions and we wont know for a while:)

That's the problem - they win young and should win for a while.
Then they don't.
Don't even lose for a while.
Don't even run for a while! :rolleyes::(;)

[kenwoodallpromos]

There could be a good one going tomorrow: Minister's Bid. He destroyed a good field of maidens at Keeneland and earned a 97 Beyer. He didn't do it the easy way that most big Keeneland winners do; he closed wide down the middle of the track. He could end up burning money like a lot of horses off big Kee wins; but if he wins, look for the hype to start. Two words came to mind after watching his win: certifiable monster.
____________________
1st I heard of this "certifiable monster" but I understand many who look great in maiden wins are not allowed to enter maiden races again! People say a race vs. winners helps establish how montrous a horse is!

[Valuist]

99.9% of the horses out there win a maiden race before going on. But not all maiden races are the same and some maiden winners are much more impressive than others. I'm sure Ward was thinking stakes w/this one before he even made his first start.

Let's compare how Minister's Bid's first start was compared to another equine who proved to be a useful sort. Ghostzapper won his career debut at 6.5f coming from just off the pace to earn a 98. Minister's Bid won his debut at 6.5f closing wide on the notoriously inside/speed biased Kee surface earning a 97 Beyer. In all fairness, GZ was still in his 2YO season, albeit late, while MB was relatively early in his 3YO season. Will he be the next GZ? Probably not but the fact his debut was that similar is a pretty good indication that he does have considerable talent.

[kenwoodallpromos]

97 sounds like a very good MD win figure regardless!
Right trainer, track and surface, careful placement should produce the next quality race, correct? What do you consider important factors for an impressive MD winner to do much more?

[Valuist]

First off, it was very visually impressive. He broke a step or two slow, took about an 1/8th of a mile or so to get going, then just started picking off horses one by one. He moved up about 4 wide on the turn and just blew the field away. About the only time you see that at Kee is if there's a total pace meltdown, and even then its usually a rail-hugging closer that gets up. The runnerup came back to win a CD Mdn race in his next start, as did the 7th place horse, who was beaten 15 plus lengths. They paid $750K for him, so they expected him to be good. Same owner and trainer as Monarchos, also.

We don't know if he can get a mile yet and he will face much better. Also there isn't much speed in the race so he may take the worst of it pace wise. But I think its gonna take a giant effort to beat him.

Keeneland has free race replays on their site. The race was on April 13, 6th race and Minister's Bid was the 4 horse.

[Valuist]

Ward is already talking Haskell and Travers:

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/second.aspx?track=B&id=2102

[kenwoodallpromos]

Bel, Race #8 Alw, $46k, 1 mile (4 TC nominees!)

#3 Flashy Bull placed in FOY, ran in KY Derby, may be overlay. Win 5-2

#6 Minister's Bid 3 bullets, big MD win. started too late for TC preps. Win 2-1

#2 Forest Phantom placed last 4, good tr/jky, longshot underlay. Win 10-1

[Prado Can Ride]

Minister Bid goes off 3/5 and Wins:)

[TravisVOX]

BERNARDINI is a very serious race horse. Anyone who thinks he's going to flop from here on out I think is taking an awfully big risk.

[OTM Al]

Discreet Cat looked like he may fit that bill as well, but he seems to be having problems. Apparantly he won't be making the Dwyer as he has been sick. I've had a cold recently too, so I kind of feel for the guy :). Just hope he doesn't end up like Blues and Royals did last year after coming over from the UAE

[DrugSalvastore]

There are a A LOT of rather talented and unproven horses in this crop that people who don't obsessively follow racing have probably never heard of.

Most of them have been tripped up by injuries and physical setbacks, but are still expected to return to the races eventually.

One of them, the sensational Bro Lo, just had his first work back. He hasn't raced since Del Mar of last year. You can watch his two lifetime races at www.calracing.com (http://www.calracing.com) . He's got a ton of talent---no telling how he returns though.

[toetoe]

prez,

How about Declan's Moon, Flower Alley and Commentator? Good 4-y-o's all. :ThmbUp:

As to this crop, I thought it was the strongest in some time. Then it dried up and blew away. The admonition to reserve judgment until they race versus older is good.

[dccprez]

prez,

How about Declan's Moon, Flower Alley and Commentator? Good 4-y-o's all. :ThmbUp:

As to this crop, I thought it was the strongest in some time. Then it dried up and blew away. The admonition to reserve judgment until they race versus older is good.

Right on toe.

I forgot DecMoon, FA and mostly Commentator.
I still have some good "feelings" about this current 3YO crop but you're aboslutly right on waiting to see them race against the elders.

[alysheba88]

Showing Up is the best of the bunch. Or will be

[Tom]

For how many races? ;)

[chrisg]

Great crop if you count only one race a year, but I am not not impressed with anything.


I agree; it should take more than one impressive performance.

[dccprez]

I agree; it should take more than one impressive performance.

Well I happen to agree, BUT, based solely on what we've seen so far, the group seems at least a little better than average. Some good/interesting new sires and some nice performances (if not world-beating).

Just as we shouldn't "crown" them on limited performances neither should we denigrate the crop. On a stand alone comparison I believe we have a better crop on the whole than we did at the same time last year.

[Valuist]

As for the fillies, I think Bushfire has proven the most, by a significant margin.

As for the 3YO turf fillies, I finally saw the pps for the American Oaks and this has to be the most overhyped race of the entire year. They've had strong fields the past two years, but this year not one runner has ever run a 90 Beyer on the grass. They've been talking up Attima like she's a BC Mile/F & M Turf runner and she's going to have to improve significantly. Lady of Venice would bury this field.

[ELA]

Personally, I would love to have a nice 3yo colt to race this year -- not to compete in the big races per se, but even to avoid the big boys and pick some strategic spots. The early flash in the pans have fell off, some will comeback more within their reach, others will not. Now you have the second half horses getting cranked up and a few of them look very serious.

I think that while the "complexion" of a particular crop can be very different, it is not that often that you get a headline G1 race that turns up really soft. Yes, it can happen and everyone's opinion will differ, however, it's more often rare than the norm.

Eric

[Valuist]

I think that while the "complexion" of a particular crop can be very different, it is not that often that you get a headline G1 race that turns up really soft. Yes, it can happen and everyone's opinion will differ, however, it's more often rare than the norm.

Eric

I think that's true, for older horses. But not so for 3YOs. Just take a look at the Prioress the past couple years. Realistically no better than probably Gr. 3 in quality. Bottom line: there's too many Grade 1s for 3YOs.

[ELA]

Yes, that's true. I didn't mean a soft, cake-walk type G1 anywhere.


We race horses all over the US and I read conditions books all the time. I also download about a dozen plus cards a day. Some of these 3yo races, non-graded, $50k and up, sometimes come up a bit light; or should I say lighter than I would have expected. The opportunities may be different, however, when it comes to some overnight type stake, anywhere, there always seems to be horses from one of the bigger stables, that you have to tangle with.

It may be more "diluted" with the 3yo's.

Great points though. Thanks.

Eric

[classhandicapper]

prez,

How about Declan's Moon, Flower Alley and Commentator? Good 4-y-o's all. :ThmbUp:



Bellemy Road is on the work tab also.

[Valuist]

I would rate this crop at least a B. Definitely better than the past two years. Don't forget Stevie Wonderboy was a part of the crop and there's a second wave of 3YOs like Minister's Bid and Bright One.

[alydar44]

prez,

How about Declan's Moon, Flower Alley and Commentator? Good 4-y-o's all. :ThmbUp:

As to this crop, I thought it was the strongest in some time. Then it dried up and blew away. The admonition to reserve judgment until they race versus older is good.

Commentator is 5

[alydar44]

I would rate this crop at least a B. Definitely better than the past two years. Don't forget Stevie Wonderboy was a part of the crop and there's a second wave of 3YOs like Minister's Bid and Bright One.

2004 ending up being a very strong year. In addition to the talent displayed at 3 by Smarty, Lion heart, cliffs edge, purge, and birdstone - borrego, rock hard 10, and eddington and commentator went on to do great things at 4

[alydar44]

Strikes me that this crop is just a little more promising than those of the past 3-5 years. It's more evenly balanced. And with most of the "name" 3-YO's pointing to the Travers we could be looking at an excellent renewal .

And consider this; other than Lava Man, Brass Hat and Electrocutionist (did I spell that correctly?) what other older horses are out there to challenge these youngsters?

I think Bernadini, Brother Derek, Stevie and a few others may prove to be tough enough to handle the handicap division later this year.

(Of course I'm also the guy who's still waiting for Point Determined to get his act together...)

Flower alley and not invasor are strong older horses

[Valuist]

2004 ending up being a very strong year. In addition to the talent displayed at 3 by Smarty, Lion heart, cliffs edge, purge, and birdstone - borrego, rock hard 10, and eddington and commentator went on to do great things at 4

How many good races did The Cliffs Edge run? I remember him winning the Blue Grass and that was about it. Borrego didn't do much until he became a 4YO and same with Purge and Eddington. I know Commentator has turned out well but I don't remember him doing much until last year, although I'm going off memory. I would say 2004 had Smarty, Birdstone and Lion Heart and the others developed into good 4Y0s.

[alydar44]

How many good races did The Cliffs Edge run? I remember him winning the Blue Grass and that was about it. Borrego didn't do much until he became a 4YO and same with Purge and Eddington. I know Commentator has turned out well but I don't remember him doing much until last year, although I'm going off memory. I would say 2004 had Smarty, Birdstone and Lion Heart and the others developed into good 4Y0s.

He did not win often but cliffs edge always ran well. He ran 2nd to medallist (who ran the race of his life) in the dwyer, ran 2nd in the jim dandy, finished 2nd to birdstone in the travers

Then in the jcgc he finished 3rd right behind funny cide and new foundland in his only start against older horses, a race where he injured himself.

Purge ran incredible races in the peter pan and jim dandy.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Someone should study average winning times for 3 year old races and see what year's crop produced the best overall times.
Seems to me this arguing that the crop is best when a handful of horses win all the races only tell you about that handful. And when no one dominates the whole 10,000 foaled are blasted. Last year seemed to have some very fast winners.

[kenwoodallpromos]

2001 had a good % of yearlings sold; 2002 had the best % of starters to foals since the mid-90's; 2003 had the largest field size since the mid-90's; Now let's see how the stallions who are 5 now are doing!

[ELA]

Some really great points here. Anyway, I looked over the entries for the OH and WV Derby races -- now, of course there are a couple of nice colts in there. I would love to own any of them, and I don't own any horses in that league now. However, that was really the point I was trying to make.

Sure, there will always be a few strong colts in there, but there often, there are also a few who show up who haven't gone through all of their conditions, don't have the seasoning, won some overnight stakes, etc. Then, you might get a scratch or two, someone doesn't show up with their "A" game, and running second or third is more possible.

For many reasons, I'd really like to have a couple of quality 3yo's to duck the big guys, race in competitive spots, etc.

Regardless, they look like potentially nice races to watch.

Good luck all.


Eric

[Stevie Belmont]

I thought the 2001 was an impressive group...Captain Steve, War Chant, More Then Ready, Aptitude, Graeme Hall, Trippi. Not a bad group at all. These were horses that competed in the Kentucky Derby.

[46zilzal]

Someone should study average winning times for 3 year old races and see what year's crop produced the best overall times.

time would not matter if the level of competiton was high amongst the group.