What causes speed to fold on the turf?

[bellsbendboy]

Sometimes speed holds on the turf, sometimes not! Can anyone give me a handle on this? Thanks. BBB

[Dave]

breeding or race fractions would be an early couple of guesses.

[sealord]

I have no personal experience with horses, but is it possible the grass simply takes more energy to run on?

I would also think the tighter turns might take more energy to negotiate for the animal.

[John]

I am only guessing at this
.
although Grass is as natural footing. Horses seem to get tired more quickly on the turf . Most turf horse will give a good run in the last part of the race.Front runners that run fast give it up in the stretch. A closer run there best in the last 1/8. Sometimes the pace is slow and the frront runner walks the first part and has something left to hold off the closers.

[betovernetcapper]

I think the level of dampness in the grass has a lot to do with it. Good or yeilding turf tracks seem to be very taxing on early speed.

[Dave]

I think you guys are maybe confusing the race as a whole w/the performance of one horse.

just because you see a lot of closers running well in a race doesn't mean the speed is 'folding'.
conversely, it's more likely that the closers run better late fractions on turf than dirt.

I don't chart all these fractions, so these are all just guesses -- anybody have internal quarter comparisns for frontrunners on the 2 surfaces?

are we including grass sprints in this question?

[kenwoodallpromos]

I think the level of dampness in the grass has a lot to do with it. Good or yeilding turf tracks seem to be very taxing on early speed.
I agree with water as a major factor.
Also, does anyone know if there is banking and how much on the turf?

[Hank]

actually does not FOLD more often on the turf per se,the inverse energy distribution pattern does not allow tiring speed horses to hang on and win on turf.On dirt EVERYBODY is decelerating in the stretch , on turf many will be running their fastest quarter.

[Tom]

Sometimes speed holds on the turf, sometimes not! Can anyone give me a handle on this? Thanks. BBB

The one I bet fold. :lol:

Serously, I think it not that speed fold as much as on dirt, it carries. The rebound of the hoofs, or bounce plays a roll. And riders tend to ride turf races differently, saving more for the stretch.
Some grass courses may get harder as they get drier, slofter has they grow olonger, or get damp.
In long turf season, grass sometime looks more like dirt racing as the course is worn. I find at the end of a long season, turf breeding is not as potent as it is earlier in the year.

[sealord]

I just caught a replay of 'the Manhatten' which ran on Belmont day featuring 5 or 6 of America's finest turf horses, including English Channel, et al. I happened to notice that for whatever reason, all the horses and all the jockeys seemed extremely content in running very slow fractions, almost as if they knew it would come down to a sprint at the end.
The horses looked almost bored, and I believe the half mile was in 51 seconds or so, which is obviously quite reserved. I'm speculating that the turf horses and their jockeys just happen to run the race differently,for whatever the reason.

Incidentally, I think it was Cacique who basically led wire to wire, and did not fold even though he was the early speed. Interesting four way photo finish though....turf races certainly make for interesting finishes.
I personally think there is value in turf races, simply because the average bettor might not realize the race is to be run slightly differently. I'm sure one of the database guys would be able to dig that up.....

[traynor]

You might look into Bill Quirin's comments in WATR or State of the Art regarding hoof configuration. He considered it a major factor in how well a horse could move from dirt to turf (or turf to dirt). A group of Argentinean bettors (who are VERY successful) use hoof configuration as a major factor in deciding when to back a horse switching from dirt to turf (in particular) and when NOT to back a horse when a race is switched from turf to dirt.
Good Luck!

[The Judge]

Even though a horse may be running on the lead doesn't necessarily mean the horse is running early. A horse running on the lead can very well be distributing its energy sustained (Howard Sartin). This is especially true in turf races. These types of horses can be hard to beat running on the lead in turf races.

[tahoesid]

Depends on the conditin of the turf. One year at Hollywood, the turf course was so dry that it was a speedway. Everything on the front end was winning. If the turf is in good condition then it is going to be softer than dirt and would take a lot more out of a horse trying to speed thru the race. Also depends on the breeding of the horse I would imagine. Some horses have a different shaped hoof making it easier to handle a softer turf, etc.
Seems like there are a lot of different things that can happen in a turf race, but it seems like more closers than early speed win.

[Valuist]

No kickback for one thing. Lots of off the pace horses don't like getting dirt/sand kicked in their faces on the main track.

Lets not forget the bloodlines aspect. Most superior turf bloodlines are not the lines that produce early speed horses.

[Overlay]

You might look into Bill Quirin's comments in WATR or State of the Art regarding hoof configuration.

I'm not sure about Quirin's views on hoof configuration, but I did find the following excerpt in Winning at the Races: "Horses able to capture the early lead win almost twice their share of grass races, while those that contend for the early lead and fail to get it win only slightly more than their share...Pace prompters give up the chase much more frequently on grass than on dirt. Horses running first, second, or third at the first call won 'only' 1,082 of 2,455 races sampled (44.1%, or about 11% below the corresponding figure on dirt)."

[robert99]

The main difference of turf from dirt is that on grass the horse is able to get instant traction to accelerate. On dirt, a horse has to go a more even pace (relative to the other horses) as the traction to accelerate on dirt is very low and extra effort tends just to thow up more kickback, which is wasted energy.

Dirt horses tend to have longer pasterns as the hoof sinks in more. There is no evidence that hoof size makes any difference - they come in all shapes and sizes on good horses. Turf horses tend to be larger build and more long striding. So, pace shape difference and conformation make a good dirt /turf horse. Tight oval tracks do not help turf horse much as there is no point in rushing up to a bend then slowing to turn it.

In UK, we have straights of 5 furlongs or more, only one or two turns, and horses can build up their relative speed to catch front runners. They are all slowing down in reality, same as dirt. However, front runners do tend to win around 40% of races in UK. They run tight to rail or where the best ground is, run at a pace that suits their cruising speed, and get the least interference from other horses. If a horse wants to run too free in front it eventually folds and drops back, so the jockey knowledge factor also comes into it. UK turf may have more spring in it than tropical type grasses but it is the moisture content of the topsoil down to about 14 inches that determines how much energy is expended each stride.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Sometimes speed holds on the turf, sometimes not! Can anyone give me a handle on this? Thanks. BBB

Maybe I can make some sense for you..A 5 furlong turf race.. You may have several speed horses in that race,Look at the speed horses, IF in their last races they were in front easy...That tells you that horse is a "need to lead" horse and if other speed horses are in the race he will be pressed and fold like a cheap shirt..Same goes in a route race, If you have a easy lead horse in the race and he gets pushed he may fold..IF your horse has no other speed to content with your speed horse wins..Do I make any sense

[bellsbendboy]

I must admit Mcshell I put this topic out on as a "trial balloon". The answer from a competent handicapper, should be where is the turf rail located?

As a general rule "Speed holds well with the rail out, and closers flourish when the race is on the hedge", but 95% of bettors and most handicapping services are completely unaware.

If you have interest, go to www.dmtc.com/forum then do an author search for bellsbendboy. There are several posts that go into detail. Good cappin. BBB

[The Judge]

Name One competent handicapper beside yourself that agrees with you. In abscense of that show me some science (data will do nicely). Post it here not on some other board.

You have 8 posts here in 2 years I sure you can spare us a little more of your time. 3000 in vcash as if you never placed a bet. Didn't we have a turf race or two you could have cleaned up it was all in fun.

[Dave]

3000 in vcash as if you never placed a bet. Didn't we have a turf race or two you could have cleaned up it was all in fun.


?

[The Judge]

? What is it you want to know

[The Judge]

I see you joined us this month and although you have 3000vcash you would have to have bet 21 races and only 2 races a week was posted. PA set up a contest have we made bets with "vcash" at $100 increments. The winner got $250 and runner-up got $150 in real money. The winners are posted on the left side bar when you sign on.

I see you didn't win Bellsbendboy's contest either I would have tried harder had I known I was in a contest "rails out hedges in" how simple who would have guessed. "Laces Out" ...Ace Ventura Pet Detective.

[Dave]

ohhh...so, the contest is over?

will there be another one?

you guys picked 2 races per week and made win bets, or each guy picks his own 2 races?
was this, like, a 4 month deal, or something?

[The Judge]

Go to General Handicapping Discussion the first post, P.A Downs to host its 1st contest $350 prize. It evloved from there P.A picked the races and provided the PP's in case you don't download or have excess to that track. It was alot of fun. I hope there will be another maybe this summer for Saratoga and Del Mar. P.A might see this and let us know or just ask him.

[Dave]

ohh yeah --- I was just reading that, as a matter of fact.

what was the winner's bank?


edit: nvm -- just read it.

damn, those guys did pretty good.

[highnote]

I must admit Mcshell I put this topic out on as a "trial balloon". The answer from a competent handicapper, should be where is the turf rail located?

As a general rule "Speed holds well with the rail out, and closers flourish when the race is on the hedge", but 95% of bettors and most handicapping services are completely unaware.

If you have interest, go to www.dmtc.com/forum then do an author search for bellsbendboy. There are several posts that go into detail. Good cappin. BBB


Why didn't you just state your intentions up front?

[Tom]

I must admit Mcshell I put this topic out on as a "trial balloon". The answer from a competent handicapper, should be where is the turf rail located?

As a general rule "Speed holds well with the rail out, and closers flourish when the race is on the hedge", but 95% of bettors and most handicapping services are completely unaware.

If you have interest, go to www.dmtc.com/forum (http://www.dmtc.com/forum) then do an author search for bellsbendboy. There are several posts that go into detail. Good cappin. BBB

I went there, and read every post by you.
Still looking for any actual data. In GOD we trust - all else bring data.

>What is the average winner's postion at the first call in Belmont 9 furlong races on the inner turf. with the rail at 0, 9 and 18 feet?

>Mile turf races on the main, 0,9 and 18 feet?

How many races, how many wire to wire, how many from 5+ lenghts back.....

That is data.
You posted opinions.

And a trial balloon? You looking to get a job at Macy's?:D

[bellsbendboy]

Good morning Tom

The movement of the turf rail is one of the best kept handicapping secrets out there. There is little data in print and most handicappers are unaware of how its movements affect the outcome of a race. Indeed many professional touts who charge big $ are unaware of the tenet.

Your rail settings for Belmont are accurate, but your questions regarding how many, or, what percentage, are too broad. Suffice to say; few winners are able to wire their fields when the race is on the hedge, and logically deep closers are compromised when the rail is up/out. Small fields, big favorites and dominating performances can reduce the tenets effectiveness.

I floated the "balloon" as a matter of treading lightly. Somewhere on the Delmar site I posted a study for every turf race run at Churchill during the spring 2003 meet. It was remarkable in validating the tenet. I am charting this meet (CD 2006) and will post the results this forum. Good cappin. BBB

[andicap]

Mr. Del Mar wrote
and logically deep closers are compromised when the rail is up/out



You might be right about the rail as a factor on the turf -- it has to play some role -- but I don't know about closers being at a disadvantage. And your statement that it's an all encompassing role is just ludicrous.

I've talked to track superintendents who have said the weather plays a huge factor -- hot dry weather usually leads to harder courses and more early speed holding.


Take a look at the Belmont inner turf on June 14-15 with the rail at 9 feet. All closers were winning. And gee it's been raining here lately.
Lets look at them one by one shall we Mr. Smarty Pants.

June 15th 1st race
Yes a 6-5 shot did win the 9f race, but the TOP FIVE all were closers. Still that's only one race. Oh yes there were 10 horses in the race, a typical turf field.

June 15th, 4th race, 10 horse field. a 6-1 shot closes from 7th to win the race making the typical 4-wide move on the turn.

June 15th, 8th race. OK, only 7 horses contend, but a 4-1 SP type wins, 5th by 5 at 2f, 4-2 at 4f and 6f. Midpack type. Mid-pack/closers finished 1-5.

June 14th. 1st race. 6f sprint, 7 horses, A wire job by 7-2 type. Unusual but not extraordinary. Previously, In the last year, 2 of 11 had wired at 6f tho can't say if the rails were up or down.

June 14. 6th race. 9f. 8 horses, Horse comes from out of the clouds to win at 5-1.

Now comes the excuses of course. But the fields were often deep, the odds were all over the place and there were no "dominating" horses.
But the course was soft from recent rains.

Again, 'cappers should pay attention to the rails being up or down and it is more valuable because the info is harder to dig up.

But all I see is another smart aleck on the web who comes over here to show us Hillbillies how to handicap. :sleeping: :lol:

Golly, gee, Sgt. Carter, I surrrrrrre wood be oblygd if yu cud tell me sum mor abou' this here hors racin' game. We bin losin fur sooo long, wer jus' abou' plum out of muny.






.

[The Judge]

We all know that the rail placement has an effect on the outcome of turf races just as a strong wind must have some effect on horses that break the wind and those that are allow to be sucked along behind. Folks in harness racing and to some extent quarter horse racing know this and use it.The question is even if you know it how do you measure it, how do you use it.

Weight must have some effect on a horse but how much is too much 1lb ,15lbs who knows. Trainer will pass a race if they feel their horse has been assigned to much weight they must know something ,but how do we use the information.

But ,here BBB makes a huge leap with no evidence and "old horsey sayings" about one track. I am still waiting for that other competent handicapper to step forward and to say that BBB is correct or some Data.

[Tom]

I am not prepared to say BB is worng - only that he has not presented any data to back it up.
I have the data and have been starting to study this rail placement issue as part of not only track profile but pace times as well. I read an article in DRF a year or two ago by Litfin, maybe - do a search on thier website where they listed pacetimes varying by rail placement. This would be good info to have.

I will put together a Belmont study and see what is there.

In BBBs defense, he did post a 4-1 turf winner before the race as an example.

[karlskorner]

Like I have been saying for years, put the temp rail out 25 feet and the gate 100 feet back from the light in a 1 mile or over race and you have a completely different set of figures.

[the_fat_man]

We all know that the rail placement has an effect on the outcome of turf races just as a strong wind must have some effect on horses that break the wind and those that are allow to be sucked along behind. Folks in harness racing and to some extent quarter horse racing know this and use it.The question is even if you know it how do you measure it, how do you use it.

A first step is getting away from the ubiquitous : 'I need to quantify EVERTHING so that I can apply the general to the specific'.

People can chart pace and speed figures all they want.

It's all about trips: wind, sucking out, position, etc.

The problem with trips, however, is that they're a bit more difficult to quantify (if at all) and thus apply the general to the specific. Horses who had this type of trip figure to .......

In the end, it all comes down to the specific. It means actually following a horse's races. Which means actually doing alot of work. It's working from the specific to the general (in a sense) but entirely too much grunt work for out generalists.

As for BBB and his turf hypothesis:

I believe that he's given out quite a few winners on the other forum, so, he probably knows what he's doing in general.

As for the tuf courses of the New York tracks, anyone with the least bit of experience can easily pick out the differences between the courses at AQU, Belmont and Saratoga, and the type of trips they favor. Rather than concerning myself with studies of rail positioning (not saying this isn't important), I'd be better served noticing wide trips (and favoring speed and/or suckup rail trips) at Aqu, failed speed/with pace efforts versus sweeping wide moves at Belmont, and wide middle moves and incredibly favoring inside trips at the SPA, and betting accordingly when the racing shifts from one track to the other.

You could make a living betting horses that made wide turn moves into the pace at the Spa when they return to Belmont. (Or throwing out all those that got suckup rail trips.)

[The Judge]

I hear you loud and clear and you are correct (I'm not talking about trips necessarily) it takes time and hard work to really play this game. In the past I was willing to put in that kind of time and work but not now. I use to look like I had been digging for coal. The DRF ink would smudge in those days I had to go out and get the late paper at 10:00 p.m to get the days results.

I don't bet as heavy as I once did and I am willing to have a few less winners but I always want to take a swing for the fences in at least a couple of races a day when I am at the track. My main interset now is breeding on the DAM side I have "Modern Conduit Mares" thanks to postings on this board.

Oh by the way , some of my best friends are trip handicapping.Ha ha ha!!

[bellsbendboy]

Hey Tom I would not portend to tell someone how to do their own research but might suggest keeping different stats for the nine foot and the eighteen foot courses. The bias would certainly be more relevant. I am still looking for ANY article on the movement!!!

Andicap Your sample size is rather small and the nine foot rail at the biggest track in the states is not the best example of the tenet. I played Belmont Memorial day, posted the chalky late pick 4, and I remember the rail on both courses was at 18ft and all five winners were on the pace from the bell. Hard tracks do promote spped holding better, and I live in one of the most remote parts of Tennessee, so I am familiar with hillbilly's..Sgt Carter is another matter.

Fatman Cappin is grunt work indeed. The nola.com/forums/startinggate site is where I do most of my posting.

Judge Everybody wants the stats! Uncertain what vcash is? BBB

[robert99]

BBB,

My interest would be more on the lines of any logical explanation as to why this might happen. If the rails are zero, then that turf near the rail may have been chewed up and the bends being at their tightest are so not so good for a front runner on the rails to keep its advantage as it slows. If the rails are out their maximum, then ground is likely to be better and bends obviously less tight (marginal?), but closers now also have these advantages of better ground and can keep going better on the wider turns to make catching the front runner more easy. The front runner needing to make it gains before the finishing straight and hold on to a rapidly diminishing advantage as the closers chase its heels.

[Bruddah]

Rail distance, trip, grass height, moisture, wind, weight, breeding etc. However, no one has mentioned the obvious, distance and pace of the race. These two determine whether a horse can carry his speed over 7-8-8.5-9 furlongs. (JMHHO) :)

[bellsbendboy]

Rob 99 capping the 6 at CD saturday . wil get back to you. BBB

[Tom]

Rail distance, trip, grass height, moisture, wind, weight, breeding etc. However, no one has mentioned the obvious, distance and pace of the race. These two determine whether a horse can carry his speed over 7-8-8.5-9 furlongs. (JMHHO) :)

Loose cannon!
Pace? Pace? We don't need no steenking pace!
:lol:

[delayjf]

For what it is worth, I recall an inteview with Chris McCarron who was in agreement with BBB. his theory was that as the rails moved out and the turns become wider, they also become easiler to negotiate especially for front runners on the rail.

[RaceIsClosed]

Sometimes speed holds on the turf, sometimes not! Can anyone give me a handle on this? Thanks. BBB

The answer is very obvious, but I'd be giving away a very profitable betting angle if I reveal it.

What to do?

[John]

The answer is very obvious, but I'd be giving away a very profitable betting angle if I reveal it.

What to do?

Raceisclosed, There are a lot of Turf angles.Angles because dirt and turf are not the same.

I like to share.

My research on Turf is this on " first time Repeaters ".

...Horses that win there first grass start do very well when they come
right back on the grass, as the following statistics reveal.


number of horses 147, number of winners 50. wpct 34%. in- the- money
59.2%. return $2.47 for every $2.00 bet

And horses that lose there first start "with honor" -finishing within a
length of the winner - do even better when they come right back on the turf.

number of horses 85. number of winners 31 wpct 36.5%.
in-the-money 64.7%. return is $2.62 for every $2.00 bet

Best of luck

John

[RaceIsClosed]

Raceisclosed, There are a lot of Turf angles.Angles because dirt and turf are not the same.

I like to share.

My research on Turf is this on " first time Repeaters ".

...Horses that win there first grass start do very well when they come
right back on the grass, as the following statistics reveal.


number of horses 147, number of winners 50. wpct 34%. in- the- money
59.2%. return $2.47 for every $2.00 bet

And horses that lose there first start "with honor" -finishing within a
length of the winner - do even better when they come right back on the turf.

number of horses 85. number of winners 31 wpct 36.5%.
in-the-money 64.7%. return is $2.62 for every $2.00 bet

Best of luck

John


Your sample sizes are relatively small, but the ROI sounds about right, as the public is going to underestimate those monsters who win through their conditions once put on the grass.

It sounds academic, but an unbeaten horse has unlimited "impirovement" potential since we don't know how much it hasn't shown yet.

Horses who run second often like getting an easy check as they gain experience.

[Dave]

I'm pretty sure the horses don't actually get the checks.

[bellsbendboy]

His article in the racing form regarding speed holding on the turf is missing the point! He charts races from June 7 thru the 14th. Admittedly it is a small sample of 12 races (he counts 11), but he is confused as to why speed holds/folds.

Eight of the races the rail was out! The winners: wire to wire, essentially wire to wire, wire to wire, wire to wire, wire to wire, essentially wire to wire, from mid pack and from mid pack. The latter two featured a hot pace and a 2-5 stopping, and a Darley Stud cull, that lugged in the entire stretch or would have won by a pole.

Four races were contested from the hedge; last to first, from 6th, from dead last, and from way back. Two of these paid over $40.

Anybody see a pattern here??? BBB

[The Judge]

I refuse to admit that rail placement causes wire to wire winners. In this example it is corret 100% even thou its only 12 races its remarkable.

Do you own a yacht if so can I go for a sail.

How do you know the rail placement and how far out were they. How do you know the rail placement if you are'nt at the track?

[John]

Your sample sizes are relatively small, but the ROI sounds about right, as the public is going to underestimate those monsters who win through their conditions once put on the grass.

It sounds academic, but an unbeaten horse has unlimited "impirovement" potential since we don't know how much it hasn't shown yet.

Horses who run second often like getting an easy check as they gain experience.

Raceisclosed, I am sure what I posted can be improved on.

Do you have something [ an angle ] that will help me... When I play pick - 3 or pick - 4. I mostly get beat by the turf races. I have convinced myself that I should buy all for that race in my pick-3

Any input from you will be appreciated.

[Tom]

I refuse to admit that rail placement causes wire to wire winners. In this example it is corret 100% even thou its only 12 races its remarkable.

Do you own a yacht if so can I go for a sail.

How do you know the rail placement and how far out were they. How do you know the rail placement if you are'nt at the track?

Rail placement is in the DRF charts.

[The Judge]

It's after the fact, it's in the charts. What about before the race is run and I am not at the track how can I find out about the rail placements? Not that I need to know where the rails are placed or anything like that mind you because I am not going to bet that way mind you. I just want to know for curiosities sake. :)

[Tom]

It's after the fact, it's in the charts. What about before the race is run and I am not at the track how can I find out about the rail placements? Not that I need to know where the rails are placed or anything like that mind you because I am not going to bet that way mind you. I just want to know for curiosities sake. :)

NYRA posts it one thier webpage every day, with the changes.

[bellsbendboy]

Many sites (brisnet, equibase, drf and the tracks themselves) omit the placement and many services (thorograph etc.) do not print it as well.

As an emailer said "to make money in this game you have to do something different". I cannot recall Steve Klein, and many, many other "personalities" ever mentioning the turf rail. In fact the skeptics this forum are out in force. Good cappin. BBB

[Tom]

If the tracks don't post that info in the morning, how can you use the method? If you are not at the track, as Judge suggests, how can you tell?

BTW, I know it is Tuesday, but I found not one track offering this info. I know NYRA does it, but who else?

I email TVG and asked to to have them work that into the noon show that is supposed to be a pre-game for the day but usually ends up two talking heads feeding each other' egos. With all the crap they yap about, I suggest they add actual information! :rolleyes:

Hey BRIS - you guys that listen here to make sure no one actually gets a free chart - how about YOU guys stepping up and getting out this information? Supposedly, you are in the data business and this....never mind - what the HELL was I thinking?

[Dave]

I'd be willing to keep an open mind on this angle, but how do you feel this impacts fig handicapping?
are closers speeding up, slowing down -- what about horses on the front end?
it's got to be one or the other.
it's certainly possible, but I'm probably 95% figs, and from talking up thorograph, it sounds like you use figures, yourself.
Ragozin holds up great on turf, but if rail placement was determining the final times for half the field, the figs would be undecipherable white noise.

it's something I'll keep an eye open for, though, even if I'm not much into pace.

[Dave]

ps

if you watch any of the live track feeds, they might mention the rail placement, but that's really not a very convenient alternative.

[speculus]

Hey Tom I would not portend to tell someone how to do their own research but might suggest keeping different stats for the nine foot and the eighteen foot courses. The bias would certainly be more relevant. I am still looking for ANY article on the movement!!! BBB

Really? I think one of the good discussions on "rails out on turf" topic took place on precisely this forum, and may be viewed at http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=21412&highlight=speculus

[bellsbendboy]

Most tracks post where the rail is the day of the show. A few put it into their past performances after the type of race (Delmar, Louisiana Downs) but the point is looking back in the pp's how do you know where the rail was, for the race run a month ago?

I read the physics class from the thread a year ago and it is too much. Boil it down to horses run faster on straights, and there is "more straight" when the race is on the hedge. Closers flourish and speed stinks. BBB

[KingChas]

Like I have been saying for years, put the temp rail out 25 feet and the gate 100 feet back from the light in a 1 mile or over race and you have a completely different set of figures.

Sucker Bets?
http://www.theyareatthepost.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=705

[The Judge]

I never used smilies before nor any of the nice add on's that P.A has so I'm experimenting. They might not be in the right place for a while.

[Tom]

Most tracks post where the rail is the day of the show. A few put it into their past performances after the type of race (Delmar, Louisiana Downs) but the point is looking back in the pp's how do you know where the rail was, for the race run a month ago?

I read the physics class from the thread a year ago and it is too much. Boil it down to horses run faster on straights, and there is "more straight" when the race is on the hedge. Closers flourish and speed stinks. BBB

You have to know the day of the race - looking, back, at this time, you need to keep chart notes.
DelMar and LA put rail position in the PP's? Not DRFor BRIS-I assume?

[Dave]

I'd be willing to keep an open mind on this angle, but how do you feel this impacts fig handicapping?
are closers speeding up, slowing down -- what about horses on the front end?
it's got to be one or the other.
it's certainly possible, but I'm probably 95% figs, and from talking up thorograph, it sounds like you use figures, yourself.
Ragozin holds up great on turf, but if rail placement was determining the final times for half the field, the figs would be undecipherable white noise.




^^^ ??

ps

if horses run faster on the straight, and there is more straight when the rail is on the hedge, then why don't the front runners run faster?

also, if it is a case where only the closers run faster, are you making the case that they still make a big run on hedge-rail days only to fall just short?

[Tom]

There was an articel about temp rail placements - I thought I remembered it.
Karlskorner posted a link to it earlier this year. I bumped the thread up. It's called Turf Rail at Gulfstream.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=3608

[Dave]

ok, am I mistaken, or does that article exactly contradict the original premise of this thread?

[Tom]

The only way to resolve this is with real data.
I'm working on it for Belmont and Hollywood.

[Dave]

could you plz include prices?

[Tom]

Here is a start:

Hollywood Park
This meet
Turf routes

Rail at 0 feet:

28 races 4 led at 2nd call, 3 were in second place (25% 1-2 at 2C)
Prices: $3.60, 3.80, 8.00, 24.20, 15.00, 15.20, 3.20

Rail at 10 feet:

15 races 5 led at 2nd call, 1 was in second place (40% 1-2 at 2C)
Prices: $10.40, 9.40, 5.00, 3.40, 6.20, 19.60

Rail at 15 feet:

25 races 5 led at 2nd call, 5 were in second place (40% 1-2 at 2C)
Prices: $7.40, 8.40, 3.40, 10.60, 7.00, 10.00, 6.60, 3.60, 6.00, 16.80

Rail at 20 feet"

4 races 1 led at 2nd call, 1 was in second place (50% 1-2 at 2C)
Prices: $4.20, 9.20

If you combine 10/15/20 feet, you get 44 races, 11 led, 7 in second place at 2C 41%)

OK, small smaple, but it will grow daily. But there might be a tend there that rails out might be helping early speed. Still too early to say anyhting definate.

[Tom]

In that same sample. here is how clsoers fared:

Rail at 0: 19 out of 28 were 4th or worse at 2C (67%)
Rail at 10: 8 out of 15 were 4th or worse at 2C (53%)
Rail at 15: 12 out of 25 were 4th or worse at 2C (48%)
Rail at 20: 2 out of 5 were 4th or worse at 2C (40%)

Even with small samples, the data suggest as the rail goes out, the percentage of closers drops.

I hope to be able to have several years of data for Belmont/Saratoga in next couple of days. Pouring over the stacks and stacks of Sim Weekly in the basement!

[bellsbendboy]

The tenet works best at midwest tracks. Here is a link of how strong the bias is at Churchill. www.bloodhorse.com/viewstory plain.asp?id=6951 BBB

[karlskorner]

As Dave said earlier " the Sheets hold up great on turf ". Why ? Because they hand time from the gate, not the light. Is the gate set back 10 feet from the light or is it set back 120 feet from the light ? Does it make an overall difference in how the race is run ? Tell me how far the gate is set back and I will give you the time of the race. Same applies to dirt races.

[KingChas]

karlskorner: Is the gate set back 10 feet from the light or is it set back 120 feet from the light ? Does it make an overall difference in how the race is run ?

Karl you are right on.I think some on this thread are thinking we are off thread about the gate settings on the turf.Read (SA sucker bet) turf link I put up.How does this apply to early speed folding?A lot of early/lone speed turf horses are life or death to hold on as the line approaches.10 or 120 more little feet make a big difference in a sport settled by the length of a nose. ;)

[KingChas]

Sometimes speed holds on the turf, sometimes not! Can anyone give me a handle on this? Thanks. BBB

Enough of this foolery.

BBB your answer is Pace."Pace makes the race" :eek:

[Tom]

As Dave said earlier " the Sheets hold up great on turf ". Why ? Because they hand time from the gate, not the light. Is the gate set back 10 feet from the light or is it set back 120 feet from the light ? Does it make an overall difference in how the race is run ? Tell me how far the gate is set back and I will give you the time of the race. Same applies to dirt races.

Karl, are we talking two things here?
You mention the gate back from the light, I was talking about temp rails out. Do they vary the gate behind as well? This would definatley have an effect on how fast those babies are running when they trip the light. I don't know if I have seen your gate distance referenced other than at SoCal.

[bellsbendboy]

Horses run faster on straights. When the race is on the hedge the pace is faster. Closers relish both the faster pace AND not having to lose major ground.

When the rails are out, the pace slows. Closers must now make up lengths, while losing ground, often into the fastest fractions of the race.

The jig is indeed up! Handicappers who do not take into account the configuration of the turf course tear up more tickets than those that do. BBB

[karlskorner]

As I have been saying for the past couple of years, set the rail out 25 feet and put the gate 100 feet back from the light, a mile race easily turns into 1 mile and 16 in distance covered. I am far from familar with all the tracks, but at CRC or GP you may find during 1 turf race the rail is set out at 25 feet and the gate may be set back 40 feet and 100 feet back for the next turf race. As I have said over and over again the "set back" has to be considered in both turf and dirt races. The " sheets " have been hand timing both turf and dirt from the gate for the past 35 years, so they must be doing something right or wouldn't have lasted this long at $35.00 a pop. For the hell of it Wal-Mart sells a cheap stop watch. On your monitor hand time from the gate opening and compare with published times. Guess the set back ( 60 feet ) and compare the 1/4 and 1/2 times and finish times. Build a data base with this information and see what you come up with. All part of the puzzle.

[bellsbendboy]

Your point about the time of a turf race, is well taken, although perhaps a bit exaggerated.

As far as figures go, riddle me this one!

A Md Spt Wt (all things equal) with the rail out, at Churchill goes in some 1:38 and change.

The same race, on the hedge will shade 1:36.

Why?

If you think the sheet guys got this one figured; think again. After an inquiry, Jerry Brown, of Thorograph wrote me "we get the data from the tracks but don't print it; it is in the charts." Time only matters when your taking pills indeed. Good cappin. BBB

[Dave]

The tenet works best at midwest tracks. Here is a link of how strong the bias is at Churchill. www.bloodhorse.com/viewstory (http://www.bloodhorse.com/viewstory) plain.asp?id=6951 BBB


link (http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=6951) corrected.

so, you don't seem to want to answer my question, but from your more recent posts, I can infer that they all slow down when the rail's out, and just the speed slows down when the rail's in because the hotter pace causes them to fold late (which is how a hot pace helps closers)?

early speed seems kind of screwed on this deal.

this is a serious question -- I'm not trying to knock your angle, just reconcile it w/what I see when I handicap.

tom(?) --- maybe you want to abandon hollywood in favor of cd?
also, maybe add post positions in your data (if it's not too much trouble?)

[Tom]

I tried about 12 times, but that code, font thing just won't work,
If you can decifer this, great, but I 'm done trying to copy anything.
I tried copying from Excel and Word, putting between the codes, changing the fonts, and every time it comes out different.
Basically, at CD, outside rails favor outside closers.

[karlskorner]

First of all when I mentioned the "sheets" I was referring to Lenny Ragozin's work not Jerry Brown's, which is a piss poor imitation of the "sheets". With regard to your riddle, if the race was run in 136 on the rail at CD and 138 with the rail out, it's obvious they just ran a further distance. Do the math, C=(pi)* d and d = c/ (pi). Tell me how far the temp. rails were set out and how far back from the light the gate was set and I'll tell you the distance they ran. From where you are sitting, count the "down rails" from the light to the gate ( use 10 feet ) and you will know how far back the gate is from the light, you will be surprised, add this to the additional distance run when the temp. rails are set out and you will have the actuall distance of the race, appllies also to dirt races. Along with this tell me how the ground crew handled the turf the morning of the race, did they roll, did they mow, approximately how high is the grass, all part of the riddle. Some day we will discuss the tractors and how they can screw up your day. Watch what the tractors are doing during the race day, are they moving sand from or to the rail or better yet are they going "clockwise", that will screw up the so-called bias on the dirt.

[delayjf]

As I have been saying for the past couple of years, set the rail out 25 feet and put the gate 100 feet back from the light, a mile race easily turns into 1 mile and 16 in distance covered. I am far from familar with all the tracks, but at CRC or GP you may find during 1 turf race the rail is set out at 25 feet and the gate may be set back 40 feet and 100 feet back for the next turf race. As I have said over and over again the "set back" has to be considered in both turf and dirt races. The " sheets " have been hand timing both turf and dirt from the gate for the past 35 years, so they must be doing something right or wouldn't have lasted this long at $35.00 a pop. For the hell of it Wal-Mart sells a cheap stop watch. On your monitor hand time from the gate opening and compare with published times. Guess the set back ( 60 feet ) and compare the 1/4 and 1/2 times and finish times. Build a data base with this information and see what you come up with. All part of the puzzle.

As I see it, whether the gate is forward or back from the beam, the "timed" distance of the race remains the same. What can be affected are the early fractions (mainly the first fraction due to the running start) and the final time IF a rabbit jumps out to a quick early lead and starts the timer well a head of the field - and then dies. In this case, If the winning horse was several lengths behind when the timing of the race began, his final time will appear slower than it should.

Unless the sheets adjusts for the actual distance from the gate to the finish, then I don't see how their hand held times are any better than electronically timed races. Where I think they have an advantage is if / when the electronic timer malfunctions.

[bellsbendboy]

Tom I'm sure it was an oversight; rails out never favors outside closers. According to DRF, with no regard of rail placement, at Churchill, this meet posts 1-6 have won 193 out of 208 races. My stats say that only two horses (both stakeswinners in allowance races) have gone wire to wire when racing on the hedge.

Karl The race is slower when the rails are up because "more" of the race is around turn(s). Their is some run up, but tracks do not card races at one mile and then run it at a different distance. I find dirt much more complex and realize I have much to learn. For instance, on humid Friday afternoon Churchills main speeds up dramatically. As far as TG vs the sheets, you are the only person I have heard who thinks the sheets are superior. I am told there will be a contest between the two covering Saratoga and Delmar. BBB

[karlskorner]

You may wonder where do I gather this information ? The report from the maintenance crew today at CRC ( I am going to assume other tracks give this information )
What is the condition of the main track ?
The main track is Fast
What did you to the the main track this morning ?
We will use the floats and packing harrows on the main track today. We graded the main track yesterday, we are at 4 1/4 inches deep. We will put 3-4 loads of water, may be 5 if it does not rain, on the main track today and water as needed throughout the day. WE ROLLED THE TURF COURSE TUESDAY AFTER THE RAIN, CUT AND VACUMED YESTERDAY AND WILL PUT UP THE RAIL TODAY.
What is the condition of the turf course "
The turf course is firm
Where is the temporary rail set on the turf course today ?
15 feet from the hedge

[bellsbendboy]

All CDI tracks have similar websites and contain the info you cite. Last Saturday, Stephen Foster day, the Churchill track maintenance report contained the word "conditioned"?

I do not know what Butch meant but the rail on the main was quicksand. I look everyday for that word. BBB

[karlskorner]

Exactly the point I have been trying to make. Since most of the computer programs are based on the 1/4 and 1/2 times or pace as they are called. There is the "time" of the race as published and than there is the "time" of the actual distance the race was run.

[robert99]

Exactly the point I have been trying to make. Since most of the computer programs are based on the 1/4 and 1/2 times or pace as they are called. There is the "time" of the race as published and than there is the "time" of the actual distance the race was run.

Karlskorner,

This "error" has always baffled me when reading all the speed and pace tomes - they pontificate all sorts of theories but do not use the right race distance, nor the right race time. Why cannot the starting gate be placed a universal constant distance from the light beam, or better still why not use the opening of the starting gate latch to trip the light beam timing instead of the first horse that happens to pass it?

[robert99]

Karl The race is slower when the rails are up because "more" of the race is around turn(s). Their is some run up, but tracks do not card races at one mile and then run it at a different distance. I find dirt much more complex and realize I have much to learn. For instance, on humid Friday afternoon Churchills main speeds up dramatically.
BBB

Bellsbendboy,

Agree, the proportion of turn is higher when the rails are out, However, the race is longer unless gates adjusted and distance to beam included with that adjustment. Also, a wider turn is not so hard on a horse at speed and does not slow it so much. Closers are running a little slower on the turns. I would say that the pace is higher with the rails out but the race time is longer because the race is longer in distance.

If a dirt track has been watered early and the day is humid, then the water in the dirt takes longer to dry out , so holds the dirt top surface together by capilliary action - so is fast. If the top dries out and becomes loose it is slower.

[karlskorner]

And when all is said and done "TIME" is only one of the four corners of the puzzle we are all trying to solve

[Tom]

BBB- no, the data is what I posted.
I'll try again tonight, but I posted postiion at the second call, which, in routes, is the 4 furlong call.

[Dave]

As far as TG vs the sheets, you are the only person I have heard who thinks the sheets are superior. BBB


I would suggest a hearing aid.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would suggest a hearing aid.

Dave, these kinds of responses aren't a benefit to anyone. In fact, they are prohibited by the terms of this board. In case you missed those terms when you registered (they were presented to you right before you clicked the I AGREE button), I'll provide the link again:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/TOS_PrivacyStatement.html

[bellsbendboy]

Dave No offense taken. But if your using just the sheets and not taking into account where the rail is, your throwing away good money.

Robert The gate is adjusted/moved in order to keep the race at the distance it was carded.

Tom Go to the Churchill website. Click insider. Click charts. Post the turf winners running position, then I will post where the rail was each day. BBB

[Tom]

BBB, I have the charts and they show running positions and rail placement.
I will try to post again today, but after the races.;)

[karlskorner]

Your answer to Robert "the gate is adjusted/moved in order to keep the race at the distance carded". Are you stating that a carded mile race ( 5280 feet ) along the rail the gate can be adjusted/moved should the temp. rail be out 25 feet causing the distance along the rail to become 5437 feet. Are you suggesting that they move the gate "in front of the light" to make up for the additional 247 feet caused by the temp. rail in order to keep the race at the distance carded ?

The placement of the gate whether it be for turf or dirt is at the discretion of the ground crew

[bellsbendboy]

Karl Your question confuses me. What I will say is the when the race is on the hedge the gate is moved up the stretch, creating a longer (straight) run to the first turn. Accordingly the pace is faster which favors closers.

Conversely, when the rail is out the gate is moved closer to the turn, thus slowing the pace, making it difficult for closers who must now lose ground as they attempt to rally into the softer fractions.

The beam, light and even time of the race are largely irrelevant. So if you are using the sheets and not using the (past) configurations, you are a step behind the good cappers. BBB

[RaceIsClosed]

Your answer to Robert "the gate is adjusted/moved in order to keep the race at the distance carded". Are you stating that a carded mile race ( 5280 feet ) along the rail the gate can be adjusted/moved should the temp. rail be out 25 feet causing the distance along the rail to become 5437 feet. Are you suggesting that they move the gate "in front of the light" to make up for the additional 247 feet caused by the temp. rail in order to keep the race at the distance carded ?

The placement of the gate whether it be for turf or dirt is at the discretion of the ground crew

5437 - 5280 is 157 feet, not 247.

I'm sure this is somewhat important, but horses can compensate for it the way they would when they ship from one circuit to another.

Closers do well on the turf because in exchange for the ground loss, they are removed from the traffic and are far less likely to have to check or steady. The ideal trip, of course, is when a horse can sit off the pace on the rail, slither into contention by the first half of the far turn, and rather than cornering on the second half of the turn, they just let the horse carry itself wide, where it then explodes down the lane.

[karlskorner]

slither

[delayjf]

Can anyone tell me if the timing beams are adjusted when the rails are moved??

[Tom]

If the gate is ahead of the beam then the first horse loaded would trip it from behind, thus the times would really be slow! :D

[Tom]

Turf routes - this meet



Temp rail 0 feet
# races....29
1-3 2c......8
4> 2c.....21
PP1-3......14
PP4>.......15

Temp rail 15/22 feet
# races....27
1-3 2c......9
4> 2c.....18
PP1-3......10
PP4>.......17



File attached:

[Dave]

ok, I hate to do this, since you're doing all the work, tom, but if it's easy to do, could you give us the total field sizes in each rail category -- or maybe going fwd, if you keep this up?

ps

another angle of interest might be to seperate the 10+ horse fields into their own category for the pp breakdowns.
so, you'd have 4 cat's.

oh, and cudos for getting the code to work.

[Tom]

I didn't get it to work - I used ... to seperate the numbers!;)

[Dave]

good old ..........