Speed Figures!

[jotb]

To all,

After reading the treads relating to speed figures, I am more confused than ever. I was thinking about devising my own speed figs but this seems like a difficult task. I have been following this sport for over 30 years but all this talk about speed figures on this forum makes me feel like I'm learning a different language. It took me x-amount of time to compile a large enough database sample to devise accurate speed figs. I have about 5000 races in all and started studying each class level seperately breaking everything down to each specific group. Believe it or not, 5000 races may not be enough sampling. Since I feel a bit overwhelmed with all of this at the moment, it might be best to put this aside for another day. LOL

Joe

[Dave Schwartz]

Jotb,

Well, you've made a great discovery. It takes a massive amount of races to make good figures, at least a year of each track and usually two or three.

However, if you are serious about it and want some guidance, let me know and I will help you.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[JustMissed]

I am a new player and am asking this question for information and not to be critical but am curious as to whether the current speed figures calculated by Beyers, BRIS & others could be inaccurate so much so often as to warrant the additional work needed to come up with your own speed numbers. i.e. If a 91 spd horse beats a 82 speed horse, what difference would if make if the 82 horse should have been an 84. If two horses are very close together in speed figures you can't make your decision based on speed alone away, so what difference does a point or two mean anyhow?

Handicapping is so dynamic, I don't see how you can hang your hat on any one thing and walk out ahead.

When I am at the track I try to sit or stand around the players who I know are cashing big tickets so I can overhear what they are talking about. They are usually talking about the horse's condition, the jockey, the trainer, the post position, how the horses ran the last race, what class they won against and so forth. When I do hear them mention speed figures it is usually something like"Yeah, he ran a 91 & 92 at Belmont but but he'll be lucky to do 87 here."

The one thing I never hear them discuss is how they make up their bets.

There are two old guys I sit next to occasionally on Saturday morning who always play Calder. They tell each other what they bet on after the race is over. It is not unsually for one of them to say"I had $20 on #3 to win & a $6 exacta on the 3/4. "
When the old guy comes back to his seat with a fist full of twenties I have to admit I am very envious. I don't know what handicapping method they are using but I have never heard them discuss making up there own speed figures. I guess they just use the ones printed in there DRF. ;)

[jotb]

Hello Dave,

Thank you for taking the time to reply. I have collected ALL the New York race results since late 2000. The largest sampling would be 3 seasons on the inner dirt at Aqueduct. I thought this should be sufficent to work with. Each distance on the inner dirt has a specific amount of race conditions. Of course, the longer the distance the less amount of conditions and races so in order to obtain accurate pars for each class and distance, I believe you need plenty of races to work with. I have a limited amount of experience with computers and programs so I find it difficult to work with this large database. All this data is in Microsoft Access. I started to work with all the 6F races on the inner dirt breaking it down to class levels, gender, age and homebreds. What was interesting to me, was that many final times within a specific class level were totally out of whack. For instance, the bottom in NY is a MD CLM 25K and there were about 30 races that were run over the last 3 years on the inner dirt for Males 3UP. The times ranged from 11 flat to 14 change. That is quite a difference for that class level. My question is, do you eliminate some of the times that are out of the norm or should you use as part of the average? Another observation I made was in the route races. On Aqueduct's inner track, races that had a distance of 8.5F had faster 1st quarter times than races that had a distance of 8.0. The only conclusion that I could make of this was, where the gate is postioned for each route race. The 8.0 races are closer to the first turn than the longer races. I guess the times are quicker the 1st quarter mile for longer races because the horses are in full stride before the first turn. I thought this was logical reasoning but I could be wrong. Please feel free to express your opinion on this. Thank you in advance,

Joe

[anotherdave]

From all the speed figures I have seen, I believe that nothing replaces doing your own for your main track or two. The BRIS ones are not bad, but there have been some serious errors that I have profited from because I do my own day-by-day track variants. When BRIS says it is a 16 and it is a 12, that messes things up pretty bad. On the topic, is there any good software out there that would allow me to input my own variants? Hopefully just once (by date), so any horse running on that date at that track will be automatically adjusted. Or, failing that, by inputting for each pace line. Thanks.

AD

[Dave Schwartz]

Joe,

There is no easy solution and both of the other two commentors are correct; one says, "Why bother?" because it is so much work and the other says, :It gives you greater insight."

The question becomes, "Is it worth it to you?"

The plan of attack is multi-faceted.

First, you must develop an understanding of the class structure at your track. That is, you must be able to answer questions like "How much faster is a $20k claimer than a $15k claimer?" and a "NW1 is equivilent to what claiming class?"

Then you begin adjusting each race according to the class level adjustments you developed in the first step.

It is kind of a catch-22... you need the class structures in place to build the pars but the pars are necessary to understand the class structures. That is why you keep tinkering and after awhile you get a feel for it.

Do not get mired too deeply in the idea that you can simply average the times and get anything that makes sense. It is a mixture of science and art. There is no other way.

If you wish to discuss it for a few minutes, give me a call next week and we'll set a time that will work for both of us.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Triple Trio]

When I am at the track I try to sit or stand around the players who I know are cashing big tickets so I can overhear what they are talking about. They are usually talking about the horse's condition, the jockey, the trainer, the post position, how the horses ran the last race, what class they won against and so forth. When I do hear them mention speed figures it is usually something like"Yeah, he ran a 91 & 92 at Belmont but but he'll be lucky to do 87 here."

FWIW, many top players don't go to the tracks and prefer to watch their computer screens either at home or at a Las Vegas race book or whatever. So the comments you hear at the track may be biased towards certain types of players who prefer to see some horse flesh. As a matter of fact, the very top players that I am aware of, have heard or read about (either in the US or elsewhere in the world) don't go to the races at all.

I am not saying that the comments you hear from the winning players at the track are poor advice, it's just that you need to be aware of the biases.

[karlskorner]

I think you are mixing apples and organges. The people you are talking about (top players) are playing dozens of tracks at a time and satisfied with a small return. There is no way they could play at a single track and push the gross amount of monies they wager, through the mutuals. Off hand I would say that the people JUST MISSED is talking about show a better return on their smaller investments.

Karl

[jotb]

Hello Dave,

Thank you and yes I would like to discuss this further with you next week. Please furnish me with your phone number, day and time that is good for you.

Thank you in advance,
Joe

[Dave Schwartz]

Jotb,

I can be found (most days, evenings, and occasionally into the wee hours of the morning) at HorseStreet.com.

Here is a link to our contact page:
http://www.horsestreet.com/contactus/index.html

If you'd call (or email) on Monday, we can set a time for Wednesday or Thursday.

Dave

[jotb]

Hello Dave,

Thank you for the immediate reply. I will contact you early next week so that we can speak further. I have been on your website this evening and was quite impressed. Extemely informative and interesting. Just wish I understood more about computer handicapping.

Best regards,
Joe

[Tim]

Originally posted by jotb
Just wish I understood more about computer handicapping.

I know that song.

[Aussieplayer]

Jotb,

Make sure you also check out the forums at Dave's web site to gain some idea of how his product works - which incorporates par times etc., which is what you're interested in.

He's also a nice fella, despite what Dick tells everyone :D

Cheers
AP

[Dave Schwartz]

Jotb,

Yeah, forget what Dick says.

Dave