Belmont Winner JAZIL

[charliedogs]

Belmont Winner could have Won the Derby.



What a statement I am making! That’s right after running the Kentucky Derby final through my computer program and allowing where the horses were (lengths out at each pole, off the rail, position and wide conditions) I came up with a horse that will win the Belmont Sakes in a 4 horse photo.



If this horses would have had the Post Positions (4, 6, or 7) he would have Won the Derby in a winning time of 2:00.98 (By a head) over Barbaro 2:01:01.



Here are his factions ¼ (15 Lengths out – 25.3) ½ (17 Lengths out – 49.2) 6F (8 ¾ Lengths out – 1:13.00) 1m (7 Lengths out – 1:38.4) 1 ¼ (9 ½ lengths out – 2:03.00) His ¼ mile splits (*25.3 (*note start 18” inside of rail) – 23.4 - 23.8 – *25.40 (*note 4 wide into stretch) – 24.60).



Now most of you are staying what about my Horse (Bluegrass Cat Post 13, Steppenwolfer Post 2, Brother Derek Post 18, Sweetnorthsaint Post 11, Point Determined Post 5, Bob and John Post 7) I believe Sweetnorthsaint, Point Determined and Bob and John all had good post.



Now who the hex did I leave out that ran in the Derby but is not in this list. JAZIL,

Jazil who had the second highest GSV score of 74.96 in the Derby. Jazil who finish 4th and ran 13 lengths (2.46) faster then his GSV score.



Now if he had the second highest GSV score why did he finish 4th? He ran from the worst Post Position you can ever run from in the KentuckyDerby, Post #1 in a field of 15 or more. Post #1 starts 18” inside of the rail. After watch this race 5 times JAZIL who breaks in the back had no chance of moving with all the tiring horses coming over to the rail. His post breaks as follow (1/20/19/17/6/4)



Using my computer program, this would have been his splits in the same 3 post (4, 6, and 7) (¼ -24.4) (½ - 23.6) (3/4 – 23.6) (1m – 24.4) (1¼ - 24.16). His final time of 2:00.16 would have beaten Barbaro by head at the wire.



For 1 ½ miles his final time would be 2:26.02, no matter who’s in the race.



Now why not Bluegrass Cat who rally from the back just like Jazil, well did he really rally. No he was never that far back; in fact he was less then 5 Lengths off the pace at any giving time, he had nothing left.



How about Steppenwolfer another closer from the back, after 6F he ran evenly never closing any ground. If you look at the race Ark-Derby for Steppenwolfer and the Wood for Jazil, tell me what you think about who’s a real closer. (Pole for Pole).



My order of finish,



1st #8 JAZIL

2nd #4 BOB AND JOHN

3rd #9 BLUEGRASS CAT

4th #2 SUNRIVER

[kenwoodallpromos]

So are you blaming the jockey for Jazil only closing enough to ITM and not to win, or the horse itself? VG he ain't- VG actually won a few he closed on! LOL!!
Good luck. I would not mind getting beat by that one- it would be exciting!

[BenDiesel26]

While you might be right about Jazil in the Belmont, according to my numbers Barbaro was coasting in the Derby as well as his previous race. He won with ease. I don't think any horse in the triple crown this year is on his level. Interesting thoughts on Jazil. I know I am a newbie but I just had to put this in there because I am kind of hammered right now and can't decide b/w all of my Belmont contenders.

[fergie]

Interesting output you have there. However, we are not all privy to your info. Please share-- What software program are you using? What success have you encountered? What tyes of races does it best predict? What is GSV?
Thanks, Fergie

[charliedogs]

GSV stands for "Genetic Strength Value". It is a numerical score developed by George William Smith, known for his pedigree analysis skills that led to two recent Eclipse Champions, Farda Amiga and Vindication; European Horse of the Year, St. Jovite; and connected to hundreds of stakewinners.

After you input all the information, Horse, Sire, Dam, His Stake races, time, distance, slope. A detail report will tell you if this horse can get their in time to win the race. It's an old speed rating system and it works better then most programs. George Smith is the best I ever seen. The program at this time is not for sale. If a horse is bred and his GSV rating is lower then his sire and dam, most of time you will produce a claimer.

Good Luck,

[kenwoodallpromos]

While you might be right about Jazil in the Belmont, according to my numbers Barbaro was coasting in the Derby as well as his previous race. He won with ease. I don't think any horse in the triple crown this year is on his level. Interesting thoughts on Jazil. I know I am a newbie but I just had to put this in there because I am kind of hammered right now and can't decide b/w all of my Belmont contenders.
I thnink you are doing fine in admitting you cannot decide. One of the biggest money burners is "having" to pick one.
I bet much fewer than I pick. This one I would have to box several and not flat bet only one!
I will probably key on Bobn and John and box with Step, BC, and OSA in trifectas, but not bet a lot.

[fergie]

Damn if you weren't right! Jazil ran one heck of a race. He deserves to be the Belmont champion, and you called it. Congratulations.:) :ThmbUp:
Fergie

[kenwoodallpromos]

Congrats Charliedogs!
WHich of the top finishers had 5 or more weeks off?

[bigmack]

KY Derby Barbaro Post 8
Preakness Bernadini Post 8
Belmont Jazil Post 8


Where is that numbers guy on this board to figure this out?

[kenwoodallpromos]

KY Derby Barbaro Post 8
Preakness Bernadini Post 8
Belmont Jazil Post 8


Where is that numbers guy on this board to figure this out?
Are all 3 8's the crest of the tracks?
Rail supposedly was slow early today at Bel.

[NoDayJob]

1st #8 JAZIL

2nd #4 BOB AND JOHN

3rd #9 BLUEGRASS CAT

4th #2 SUNRIVER

Good call!

[Suff]

1st #8 JAZIL



Props...:ThmbUp:

[charlieparks53]

charlie dogs thanks to you, you made my day, and weekend, I used the 8 on top to the 29411, in the 2nd and 3rd holes. Great call. If you go to Del Mar this year I owe you drinks. Thanks again.

[Tom]

Seems to be a lot of Charlies here today?

[cnollfan]

Great pick, and nicely done on the minor awards too.

[Stevie Belmont]

Congrats on Jazil. Horse had a shot, no doubt and did it. 4 of the top 5 finishers raced well in the derby and showed up again. No reason not to find a way to bag that try. The $14 win price on Jazil was great. Bluegrass Cat before the race looked super.

[Slower]

I never even considered the "crazy 8's theory" or is it the eight ball in the third pocket. Certainly a much simpler system of determining the triple crown winner and why didn't I think of it? My dog only barked four times so I bet on "Bob & John". Actually I'm a "Talk to the horses" guy and "Jazil" was one of the ones who declared he would win. It went like this:

1 "Platinum Couple" 30/1 says, "I'm just glad to be here among all these stakes horses and some of the ladies may pick me for my beautiful gray coat."
2 "Sunriver" 4/1 says, "You are looking at class, Sonny, because me and my uncoupled stablemate, "Bluegrass Cat" are the only Belmont stakes winners in this race. I just won the "Peter Pan" which is a local stepping stone to the Belmont. Just keep the track dry because sloppy is just a name I'm bred for but I don't like it at all."
3 "Hemmingway's Key" 15/1 says, "I'm a stone closer , man and strictly in this race to get lucky and sneak into the 3rd or 4th position. The only thing going for me is my trainer, Nick Zito, and my jockey, Jeremy Rose.
4 "Bob and John" 5/1 says, "I'm one of the ones that will win this race, understand? Remember a Belmont winner, "Commendable" won the 2000 Belmont after finishing 17th in the Derby just like me. Bob Baffert, my trainer won the Belmont the next year too with "Point Given". I'm a stalk/pounce guy, the perfect type for this race course and a little rain suits me to a tee. I'm ready to roll, Baby!!
5 "High Finance" 12/1 says, "Catch me if you can and you probably will because I never ran over a mile and don't even belong with these stake horses but if "Bernirdini" can win the Preakness, why can't I win the Belmont? I lull those slow horses to sleep and they got too much work to do in order to catch me. Sounds reasonable in theory if the race was shorter.
6 "Oh So Awesome" 20/1 says, "I love the grass but it's my connections which are more awesome than me. I only had one dirt race and came in 3rd in the slop. I've raced longer distances than any of these guys but always on grass."
7 "Deputy Glitters" 15/1 says, "Just don't rain or I'm sunk but Edgar Prado is my jockey and he knows when to turn on the gas. I got hung out in the Derby but I got a new gear when it's time to run so I should improve on a dry surface."
8 "Jazil" 10/1 says, "Don't count me out Baby because I was no disgrace in the Derby 4th and right there in the Wood Memorial. I'll move with "Deputy Glitters" and I think I can go the 12 furlongs better than him.
9 "Bluegrass Cat" 3/1 says, " I'm the favorite which means the people are right 33 % of the time. I got the best trainer and jockey and came in 2nd in the Derby. I should win and although I never ran in the rain, I'm bred to love the surface. I'll sit tight right off the speed and go when my jockey says, NOW."
10 "Double Galore" 30/1 says, "When that gate opens, I'm out like a shot and will show "High Finance" a thing or two about speed. Not sure about the distance but I'll Be there early to wear out the other speed. Rain isn't my cup of tea by breeding and I have never run in it.
11 "Steppenwolfer" 9/2 says, "I ain't talking! They said I was a stone closer but that morning line tells you those handicappers respect me for what I am, a good race horse. The distance suits me and I speak English fluently. I love to be ignored.
12 "Sacred Light" 15/1 says, "Our Father, who art in heaven, blind these other horses so I got a chance.
That's what the horses say and I leave it up to you to interpret their winnie winnie.
Oh me, I'm going with some trifecta and exacta bets depending a lot on whether it rains or not.
I've indicated the horses that don't mind rain so that should be a guide for you. It's certainly time for a great trainer like Pletcher to come through big time and you have to pay close attention to the best jockeys. That being said, it helps to know what the horses think and that's my special gift. Yep, you gotta be a horse's body part to accept what I'm telling you is the truth.
Slower