Picking your Brains-Consistency

[douglasw32]

Consistency---Best way to rate a horse on it ?

[stu]

Ideally one would use the standard deviation from the average finish position. The horse with the smallest deviation is the most consistent.

I probably wouldn't do this since the sample size (number 0f starts for each horse) is too small

stu

[traynor]

It would also imply that every horse is all out to win every race, so the result of the calculation "means something." Alas, that may not be true. Or even close.
Good Luck!

[Tom]

I look at consistency as situational.
A horse horse has 34 starts at NYRA, with a record of 34-0-3-1
He ships to Finger Lakes and has a record of 3-2-1-0
If he next runs at FK, I look at hims a highly consistent horse. If he runs at NYRA, he is a proiven loser.

A horse has a dirt record of 15 1-2-2 and a turf record of 9 -4-3-1.
Today's surface determines his consistency.

A horse shows 10 PP races - 4 claimers and 6 allowance. In the climers, he has 2 wins at $35K and a place at $50K.
In the allowance, he is oh for with a place and show. Which do you use?
depends on today's race.

Another angle of consistency is that I look for horses that show a 67% in the money record at today's track - this is very useful in filling exotics.

Not sure if you are familiar with Sartin stuff, but the X-O (*) designations for good, bad, neutral races helps clear up the confusion of mixed PPs.
Brohamer had a technique I find bery useful - draw a line through anyy paceline significantly different from today's race.
Say it is a dirt route for $25,000 today. Crossout any sprint, andy turf, andy allowance, perhaps any sloopy track......focus on the races that are left.
You can do this somehwat with Formulator, Handicapper's Daily, or BRIS/TSN PP programs and thier filters.

[stu]

Y'all,

Wouldn't one want to avoid a consistent horse since it is more likely to be an underlay than an overlay?

The line of thought is that consistent horses are obvious to the typical player and thus will attract more attention in the wagering pools.

The contrarian players would profit by finding positive situations with inconsistent horses.

Stu

[kenwoodallpromos]

Trainer 10%; over 50% ITM on PP's; last 2 races ITM; no more than 2 layoff of 2 months or more showing; no skipping or stretching out timewise of races or works recently.
The quick version is to just look for patterns in the ITM finishes and excuses in the 5th or worse finishes and "oddball" races.
But consistency only wins races if coupled with current race suitability- otherwise a longer odds horse can figure in the particular current race.
Like oddballl horse Oh So Awesome should be a throwout but must be cionsidered for 1 1/2 miles.

[Overlay]

Despite the distortion created by the increase in state-bred races between 1979 and the mid-1990's, Mike Nunamaker found that average earnings-per-start (as figured by Quirin, based on the current year if the horse had started six or more times, and the last two years otherwise) had retained its effectiveness as a combined measure of consistency and class to that point, with the added benefit that it was not necessarily as obvious as a simple count of in-the-money finishes, or other similar measures. Is anyone aware of more recent/updated data for average earnings based on larger samples? (In his last revision of the Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing, Ainslie stated categorically that anyone who continued to use average earnings as a consistency/class measure was doomed wherever state-bred races were regularly run, but I would tend to doubt that.)

[Turfday]

Irrespective of state-bred races or not, there is no continuity of purse structure on the Southern California circuit. Purse structure and purse earnings for the same, exact class of horse can fluctuate from race meet to race meet.

As an example, the purse for a $20,000 claiming race or a non-winners of a race other than at Hollywood Park is may not be the same at Del Mar. The Southern California race meets join together. Are the horses any different, say, in early July at Hollywood Park than they are in early August at Del Mar? Although they may be running at the same level in the same class, the answer is no.

Moreover, if business is up (handle), the horsemen benefit from added purse money either during the meet or it is distributed retroactively. Thus, horses that earned a win or placing when handle is up are the beneficiaries of added purse earnings to their record.

Speaking without knowledge of how this works elsewhere around the country, I think it's obvious to surmise that average earnings per start is not an effective combined measure of consistency and class for the reasons mentioned above.