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View Full Version : $1000.00 to bet on the Belmont


timtam
06-06-2006, 01:32 AM
A guy I know won a contest at our local off track racing facility and he

has $1000 to wager on the Belmont alone. He can make any kind of bet he

wants so he's waiting to see how many horses in the race and then he's

gonna wheel all the horses in the trifecta. Is this the best strategy to use

cause its the one I advocated ? Does anyone else have a better and more

productive wager? Please help

kingfin66
06-06-2006, 01:49 AM
Much depends on the field as you stated. Does the $1000 all have to go into one pool, or can it be spread among several types of bet? You can spread a lot for a grand. I would say, either try to hit a homerun, or take the opposite approach and play it safe. Safe would a show bet on the favorite. If you hit it, even for $2.20, you get +$1000 back. I'm assuming your friend cannot just take the cash?

timtam
06-06-2006, 01:56 AM
it looks like he will get a percentage of his take . He has to write down

all the bets on a piece of paper 15 minutes before post time. I hope to

get more details as the week progresses.

kenwoodallpromos
06-06-2006, 03:08 AM
Favorite to show.

rastajenk
06-06-2006, 08:22 AM
At a mile-and-a-half? I don't know about that.

The all-all-all tri in an eleven horse field cost $990. Since it's found money, and he's not digging into his own account to make the bet, that's probably not a bad idea. He may get a smallish payoff of $100 or so, but he's in for the big ones, too. I think that's probably the way to go.

Tom
06-06-2006, 10:44 AM
If he needs the dough, I agee with Ken.
A k note is a k note.

StartedAt18
06-06-2006, 12:06 PM
$1000 on Jazil to show. lol that horse has a ridiculous closing kick.


I would never spend $1,000 on a $1 tri. Hellz naw. Maybe box 7 horses for $4 tri = $840 Or use the top 5 choices in like a $5 or $6 Trifecta. Then some exactas..

kenwoodallpromos
06-06-2006, 02:18 PM
Make as safe as bet as possible, then bet it later on his choice of races!

skate
06-06-2006, 05:12 PM
"K" note does nothing


so ok you started with ziltch and you still got your ziltch


really now

geesus, at least go for something

ryesteve
06-06-2006, 06:29 PM
o ok you started with ziltch and you still got your ziltch

No, he's starting with $1,000, not zilch. Doesn't matter whether he won it in a contest or pulled it out of an ATM, he's still got $1,000 in his hand. Throwing it away on flyers makes no sense.

banacek
06-06-2006, 06:33 PM
If he keeps the money he wins, I'd bet all the horses to win (lowest take) according to their odds. Then he should get back $800-850 guaranteed which he can do what he wants to with.

Tom
06-06-2006, 08:49 PM
Now that's smart thinking!

Zman179
06-06-2006, 10:23 PM
Well, the $1000 is a free bet. What I'd do is try to find a horse to show that could pay $5 or better. Yeah it's risky, but if I hit I wouldn't have to sign a W2G as opposed to a $1 tri.

BetHorses!
06-06-2006, 10:31 PM
I'll give him $900 and then tell him how to bet the $1,000 for me.

skate
06-07-2006, 04:17 PM
rysteve;

and others;

when i say he is starting with Ziltch it should become clear that i am not saying "a really real time Ziltch".
but in trying to cut to the point, then ok either keep the $1000, if that means something or go for something that REALLY means something.

But gads all mighty, whatever could become (keep in mind that you are telling me that $1000 is all you have or there abouts) of the chance that you could actually acquire something $, you have a chance to get ahead and yet you will place a little bet on show which will givwe you a little More $$$. and you'll still have nothing with your little show bet.

i don't care how you spell out this situation, my bottom line is "you have a chance to acquire and yet you still want to go no place with that chance."

some take risk
others stay put and keep complaining about their situation.

go from $1000 to $1500, you still have nothing, so, ok fine keep your $1000, let someone else grab the pot (like me).

skate
06-07-2006, 04:22 PM
this reminds me of the time.

this guy hits a Pick six for $256

i felt embarrssed for the guy, i mean unless your in kindergarden, ok fine, nice hit Buddy.


gees

banacek
06-07-2006, 04:23 PM
I don't disagree with trying to make it a lot more with the $1000. I would just try to get most of the $1000 out of it and then bet on a race I really like. I can go for broke on a $25000 claimer that I have a solid opinion on, rather than go for broke on a race they are forcing me to bet on.

skate
06-07-2006, 04:29 PM
hey ya see this sort of thing all the time


gal hits for a jackpot of $20..00 in dimes or whatever and the rush is exotic

hey, i'm not an ambassador of good- will.

there is entertainment and then there is making money. i try for both.

ya just wanna have fun, fine.

skate
06-07-2006, 04:40 PM
ok ok ok i can sure see all of that , ie going for it later, yes sir.

but in the scheme , let us be upfront with "really going for it later", and i'm not trying to pick on anyone and im not trying to be overly "big deal approach" type of person here, what i really try to say (try to make a point) is that people while betting should , and must have the mind- set to "go for it".
or it most likely will not come to you

you go to the track, you gotta have enough to make a difference

or just have a nice day, that's ok also

ryesteve
06-07-2006, 05:21 PM
go from $1000 to $1500, you still have nothing
I'd be very happy to make that much profit on a race I most likely would have absolutely no opinion about.

I still think you're looking at this differently than any other bet decision, merely because it's "contest" money. But if I'm wrong and you really do spread $1000 on exotics in every race you bet trying to hit something huge, then I'll stand corrected.

point given
06-07-2006, 06:06 PM
Interesting concept on how to bet the guys $1000. I gave it a little thought and came up with this play. See what ya think .

Use 3 favs as a Super key, in the 2nd spot use 5 horses and all and all for the 3rd and 4th spots. This costs $280 per super bet for $840. The other $160 could be bet in tri's.

Since the Super usually has a nice payoff on big race days, the guy might hit for $5-10K. The super is usually too expensive for most to spread with, but with the $1K, it gives him some leverage.

ryesteve
06-07-2006, 07:42 PM
Use 3 favs as a Super key, in the 2nd spot use 5 horses and all and all for the 3rd and 4th spots. This costs $280 per super bet for $840. The other $160 could be bet in tri's.
Is this how you're going to bet the race yourself?

BetHorses!
06-07-2006, 07:52 PM
This is what I don't understand. Why does everyone think small. Bet the dime on a 20-1 shot, bet 2 horses 500 win each at 5-1 or better-- take a chance, gamble a little. Stop the safe crap and stop with the favorites on top. Make it where if you hit you score for $10,000 plus

ryesteve
06-07-2006, 09:44 PM
... and what I don't understand is why people are suggesting that this guy bet the race and try for some pie-in-the-sky b.s. The race shouldn't be bet any differently than you'd bet any other race. If you people bet every race the same way you're suggesting this guy bet his thousand, you wouldn't have been able to post those suggestions because you would've had to hock your computers years ago

Hank
06-07-2006, 09:44 PM
Bet the race on your handicapping opinion,like any other race simply scale the wager way UP to use the 1k.:ThmbUp:

kenwoodallpromos
06-07-2006, 11:58 PM
... and what I don't understand is why people are suggesting that this guy bet the race and try for some pie-in-the-sky b.s. **************The race shouldn't be bet any differently than you'd bet any other race. If you people bet every race the same way you're suggesting this guy bet his thousand, you wouldn't have been able to post those suggestions because you would've had to hock your computers years ago.
Good luck if you bet every race the same way- I do not. I think that happens in progressive betting.
We were asked about only this race because the thread starter says he has to bet it all on 1 race- not spread it out over every race and make the exact same bet in every race. If I was asked about that I would not have resonded because I do not do that.

ryesteve
06-08-2006, 12:20 AM
.
Good luck if you bet every race the same way- I do not
In other words, sometimes you wager logically, weighing your risk and potential return, and other times you just haphazardly bet exotic combinations trying to make a killing?? Good luck if you bet that way... I do not.

hdcper
06-08-2006, 01:09 AM
I think it really depends on what size bettor this individual is. If he generally bets large sums of money on the horses, just play the $1000 like any normal bet (basically a free bet).

However, if he is a small player a $1000 day at the track is a nice way to spend Belmont day. Obviously betting every horse in the race to win using a dutching technique will bring back at least a $850 payoff, but in that case take Bethorses offer of $900 (reducing the track take to just 10%).

In a way this might be like taking insurance on a $100 bet when you hold Blackjack and the deal shows an Ace. If you generally make $100 bets go with the odds and pass on the insurance. But say you are a $5 or $10 bettor, and have made a $100 wager. In this situation, taking the insurance insures you of a guarantee 10 to 20 times return above what you normally would win on any one hand. For this type of player, a bird in the hand certainly offsets the fact that buying insurance is a losing proposition.

Anyway, whatever he does, best of luck,

Bill (Hdcper)

garyoz
06-08-2006, 08:52 AM
I think the $1,000 will be taxable as ordinary income. He should takeout cash to cover the taxes then send the rest in--I'd send in Superfecta's and/or Trifectas.

I have a friend who won a Lexus in a charity drawing--turned his taxes into a mess for that year. He had to claim the sticker price on his taxes (or so he told me).

kenwoodallpromos
06-08-2006, 04:17 PM
In other words, sometimes you wager logically, weighing your risk and potential return, and other times you just haphazardly bet exotic combinations trying to make a killing?? Good luck if you bet that way... I do not.
My mistake- I did not understand that you were talking about either straight bets vs exotic bets. I do not consider all exotics as haphazard if the % says it is an overlay.

point given
06-08-2006, 07:04 PM
Is this how you're going to bet the race yourself?

The question was "How would you bet the $1000. on the Belmont Stakes". And I might just do as I said with it , 3 favs on top, 5 for 2nd, all, all supers. As others pointed out, it all depends on this guys comfort level, financial situation, etc. I myself, in my situation, would probably do the supers, but scale back on the number of horses; then do some safer type bets to hedge and try not to loose the whole $1K, if the supers don't pan out. What would you suggest to the guy ? I must have missed your reply.

ryesteve
06-09-2006, 12:06 AM
I do not consider all exotics as haphazard if the % says it is an overlay.
Exactly. What's haphazard is the nature of some of the suggestions being offered here.

ryesteve
06-09-2006, 12:14 AM
What would you suggest to the guy ? I must have missed your reply.
My suggestion? I'm never going to have a strong opinion on a race involving 3yo's going a mile and a half for the only time in their lives. Betting $1000 would require a strong opinion... so my strategy would be to just avoid losing it, so I'd have it later to put towards races I can confidently profit from.

BetHorses!
06-09-2006, 12:42 AM
My suggestion? I'm never going to have a strong opinion on a race involving 3yo's going a mile and a half for the only time in their lives. Betting $1000 would require a strong opinion... so my strategy would be to just avoid losing it, so I'd have it later to put towards races I can confidently profit from.


Fair point but if I said to you here's $1,000 bet the stakes and if you win keep it all and if you lose don't worry about it. Still just trying to avoid losing it? Why not just take a shot to score out at no risk?

ryesteve
06-09-2006, 08:55 AM
Fair point but if I said to you here's $1,000 bet the stakes and if you win keep it all and if you lose don't worry about it. Still just trying to avoid losing it? Why not just take a shot to score out at no risk?
I don't see how being told "don't worry about it" means no risk. Does that mean you get the thousand back if you blow it all? If that's the case, then yeah, that would obviously change your approach.

BetHorses!
06-09-2006, 09:40 AM
I don't see how being told "don't worry about it" means no risk. Does that mean you get the thousand back if you blow it all? If that's the case, then yeah, that would obviously change your approach.

The $1,000 is a gift its not your money just like the contest.

The way I read it is this guy now has $1,000 that he must bet and he gets to keep the profit -if he loses he has nothing. The "don't worry about it" in my analogy means its my money that I am giving to you to wager, if you lose it you do not have to pay back if lost. Essentially, I am giving you $1,000 on the condition it must be wagered on that race. Now are you going to ATTEMPT to turn that $1,000 into a small profit or a big one?

ryesteve
06-09-2006, 12:02 PM
The $1,000 is a gift its not your money just like the contest

This is getting needlessly philosophical and/or semantic. How is a "gift" not "your money"? When someone gives me a gift, it most certainly belongs to me at that point.

Let me try to get back on track... my only issue is with people making *indiscriminate" suggestions, of which there were a lot. Constructing a ticket just based on ML or odds is no better than buying a lottery ticket. I didn't see suggestions of the kind, "Deep closers are always overbet in the Belmont, so I would box exactas that exclude Jazil", or "Sunriver and Bob and John look much the best, so I would key tris with these two on top".

skate
06-09-2006, 01:35 PM
bethorses;



This is what I don't understand. Why does everyone think small. Bet the dime on a 20-1 shot, bet 2 horses 500 win each at 5-1 or better-- take a chance, gamble a little. Stop the safe crap and stop with the favorites on top. Make it where if you hit you score for $10,000 plus

exactly, exactly exactly, thank you.

i've myself (god i hate this) have done nothing but improved since the day when i was looking for the absolute "everything considered" type bet.

Now, i sure do look very fondly for the Big Odds horse that has a good shoot.

i get responses like, ya, but you gotta cap the race etc. , well no poop sherlocks.
hey,
then look and only play when you get the Big Odds horse.

why? because it brings you (my friend) into "the right habit" of betting.

ok don't or bet. save the $1000, or get serious.

skate
06-09-2006, 01:53 PM
ryesteve;



I'd be very happy to make that much profit on a race I most likely would have absolutely no opinion about.

I still think you're looking at this differently than any other bet decision, merely because it's "contest" money. But if I'm wrong and you really do spread $1000 on exotics in every race you bet trying to hit something huge, then I'll stand corrected.

yes, sure, you can look at this type race as being "not the normal race". so stay away, but don't get yourself into the wrong habit. and that's what is wrong with the opinions of many, here. i get very bored with a "monoply type betting" situation. but if your trying to go "smeplace", then get yourself into the right habit. then things will become clearer, when you actually make your real bets.

you have (most do the same) brought into the situation a quote such as you made when you say ""spread $1000 on EVERY (why every) race you bet".
so what do i do to counter your quote, should i say, "you think every race is a monoply (contest type) bet situation and try not to make too much money and stay with a chalk-show -bet". ? fine, have fun.

what i'm saying is, develope a habit and you'll see, in time this will help the bottom line.

ryesteve
06-09-2006, 02:28 PM
get yourself into the right habit.
I'm not sure exactly what you were trying to say, but in my opionion, the right habit is making bets that I'm fairly sure have a positive expectation, not bets that will pay off with a windfall if by some chance they happen to come in. Advice preaching the latter and ignoring the former isn't helpful to anyone.

bpiets
06-09-2006, 02:50 PM
:) ;) :p Too often has handicapping let 'me' down due to 'poor starts'-poor jockey rides'-owners/trainers just giving 'thier' 'nags' a 'live-conditioner' with a future race in mind', etc....this InCludes grade 1-2-3 stakes races....so to 'let-the-money-do-the-TALKING' is not an option.....'i' can't Count the times where 'i' had the right exactors and triactors in the Wrong order of the ticket....at one time over a period of 4.5 months having bet $280.00 on tri's without the box 'i' Lost $4600.00 dollars and this is in the days when 'i' 'handicapped' and went to the track for SPACIFIC Races >>>ONLY<<< AND 'TRUSTED' >>ALL<<< the other factors that make up racing BLINDLY and without consideration....( Back in the mid 70's.)...And ALL those 'i' have known that actually won BIG and still do play NO'S....not play with what coulda/shoulda/woulda.....( the above statement is also true of pretty much every horse owner/trainer that 'i' have ever come across....and 'they' were lucky to have a different buisness to fall back on...and yes 'they' did ''pick'' a spot play or two just like EVERYONE DOES EVERY-SO-OFTEN'.....)...

bpiets
06-09-2006, 02:59 PM
$1000.00....R7-GORELLA....$250.00 TO PLACE
................R8-TOO MUCH BLING...$250.00 TO PLACE
................R10-SILVER WHISTLE/GREY SWALLOW....$25000 TO PLACE on each....
and any winnings on BOB AND JOHN with a look at 11 and 12 in tri's /ex's....depending on how 'they' ''look'' prior to the race....

kenwoodallpromos
06-09-2006, 03:04 PM
This will be a nice thread to redboard! :D

point given
06-09-2006, 09:52 PM
My suggestion? I'm never going to have a strong opinion on a race involving 3yo's going a mile and a half for the only time in their lives. Betting $1000 would require a strong opinion... so my strategy would be to just avoid losing it, so I'd have it later to put towards races I can confidently profit from.

The question is what would be your bet of the $1000. which must be bet on the Belmont Stakes race. It is all fine and dandy that you do not like the race, but the requirement is to bet the money on this race. I expect it would be a conservation of capital bet, from what you wrote. You want to bet it on future races that you have an opinion on, good, that is only possible if you still have it after your bet on the Belmont, which you must do. So , What is your bet ? What horse or horses in what amount ?

BetHorses!
06-09-2006, 10:05 PM
Here is what I would do

$200 EBX 7-9 = $400

$100 Ex 7/ 2,4,11 = $300

$100 Ex 2,4,11/ 7 = $300

ryesteve
06-09-2006, 10:37 PM
So , What is your bet ? What horse or horses in what amount ?
I'm liking the idea of an 8 horse dutch. Do you really need to know which ones I'd leave out?

badbert
06-10-2006, 02:05 AM
bet the 1,000 on #12 to win !!!

skate
06-10-2006, 10:31 AM
rysteve;



I'm not sure exactly what you were trying to say, but in my opionion, the right habit is making bets that I'm fairly sure have a positive expectation, not bets that will pay off with a windfall if by some chance they happen to come in. Advice preaching the latter and ignoring the former isn't helpful to anyone.

i just wish that i had some of your Wisdom and Insight.

somehow when i look up at the tote board, i know you guys are "out there for me".

thank you

ryesteve
06-10-2006, 10:40 AM
i just wish that i had some of your Wisdom and Insight.
I'll take wisdom and insight over wiseass sarcasm anyday. Thank god I was blessed with both :D