Help creating odds line

[Handiman]

Hi guys,

I could really use some help. I have written a program that ranks contenders by my power numbers. It lists the top 5 horses. I am having alot of success with the program. Like to day at Mountaineer, I played 5 races and in 3 races the top 4 finisher's were in my top 5. Superfecta and tris would have been hit, along with another nice tri in another race.
I've been getting these kind of results over multiple tracks. I don't have much money right now to bet large tickets. I'm home recuperating from open heart surgery just a month ago. So the coin has been pretty slim.
Now I know how to make odds lines under normal circumstances, ala Dick Mitchell and some other authors. But my problem is that my power numbers are pretty close. So an odds line presents the 5 horses with odds that are all close together. It's not unusall for the 1 to 5 spread fit within 30 to 40 points of each other, top to bottom. The spreads between the top and bottom rated horses just doesn't provide large enough spread to cover necessary odds spread.
Any input on how I can create an odds line based on this limitation would really be appreciated. I can make an odds line using impact values in another program I wrote, but this one works better.....just need to create odds line.

Thanks in advance.

Handiman :)

[Dave Schwartz]

Send me an email... we can set an appointment and I will give you some help.


Dave Schwartz

[socantra]

Handiman,

Dave's undoubtedly your best bet, but I'd also reccommend you take a look at Dick Michell's "Thoroughbred Handicapping as an Investment" if you can find a used copy.

socantra

[Dave Schwartz]

... which I just happen to have a couple of copies of. <G>

[gm10]

Hi guys,

I could really use some help. I have written a program that ranks contenders by my power numbers. It lists the top 5 horses. I am having alot of success with the program. Like to day at Mountaineer, I played 5 races and in 3 races the top 4 finisher's were in my top 5. Superfecta and tris would have been hit, along with another nice tri in another race.
I've been getting these kind of results over multiple tracks. I don't have much money right now to bet large tickets. I'm home recuperating from open heart surgery just a month ago. So the coin has been pretty slim.
Now I know how to make odds lines under normal circumstances, ala Dick Mitchell and some other authors. But my problem is that my power numbers are pretty close. So an odds line presents the 5 horses with odds that are all close together. It's not unusall for the 1 to 5 spread fit within 30 to 40 points of each other, top to bottom. The spreads between the top and bottom rated horses just doesn't provide large enough spread to cover necessary odds spread.
Any input on how I can create an odds line based on this limitation would really be appreciated. I can make an odds line using impact values in another program I wrote, but this one works better.....just need to create odds line.

Thanks in advance.

Handiman :)

try a multinomial model to get the probabilities of winning (play with the weights in the model to obtain a decent spread)
then

odds = 1/probability - 1

[xfile]

What I've done for years that works VERY well for me in a similar spot that you have is to use a simple re-sort of the morning line odds. :cool: