Picks for the Belmont / Has to "B" Bob and John or Bluegrass Cat "

[BeatTheChalk]

The circle can not break now. It is just logical that one of the Bees will
win this hand. Bob's workouts are simply incredible. Bullets all over the
place. I think Bob and John will be a short price tho. Oh .. Bob and John
has theee highest Beyer of any of the horses 107.

[joe]

:confused: Bluegrass Cat: ID=3.80__CD=1.00 Profile = 10-4-10-0-0 [24]... Bob & John: 3.00__CD=0.88 Profile=10-3-13-0-0 [26]...Jazil: 3.00__CD=0.89 Profil=11-3-14-0-0 [28]...Sunriver: 1.55__CD=0.44 Profile=9-1-14-2-2-...which seems to be the most well rounded profile of all the horse's running in the BELMONT...Going back over the last ten Belmonts, the horses above fit there profil best ,out of all the runners so far...I also like a horse with the most time between races in this case. If history repeats it self again one of these horses above should "WIN" the BELMONT again.?...

[shammy]

my picks are Steppenwolfer, Jazil and i dont know who i will use in my tri yet. Good luck all!

[Bignick63]

One of the more important angles to arise through the last several versions of The Belmont Stakes has been that the most recent Belmont winners have also run in the Kentucky Derby. The logic behind this angle clearly states that the grueling Derby effort adds a lot of conditioning to a horses current form cycle, (regardless of their Derby finish), so with their Derby efforts behind them and the 5 weeks of rest in between starts to The Belmont, this solid performance angle has been brought to life. Therefore, give a little more of an edge when weighing all the factors for this years Belmont contenders that have also started in this year’s Kentucky Derby: Bob and John, Deputy Glitters, Jazil, Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer. :cool:

belmont selections and analysis
www.nickborg.com

[xfile]

If the track is off, which looks like the case, I'd have to go with a reverse Wood Memorial exacta = Jazil/Bob and John :cool:

[TommyCh]

In checking the three New York dailies, Weather Channel and the National Weather service, it looks like Saturday is going to be a nice day with 40 percent chance Friday. Privman in DRF was inflammatory about the weather, only because it was raining when he wrote the story. So it looks like the track will be moist, but what does that mean at Belmont? How well does that track drain?

[joe]

:confused: High Finance ID=4.00--CD=1.20 profile=6-0-4-0-0, not likly to get 1-1/2 , Double Galore ID=3.50--CD=0.94, profile=7-3-8-0-0, off close maiden win , Sacred Light ID=4.60-- CD=1.07 profile= 6-3-5-0-0, not likly to get 1-1/2 miles, can these horses be throwouts? ... :confused: ...

[joe]

:confused: PACE makes the race.?...the Belmont is a little slower, pace, then the KY. Derby and Preakness, it favors the pace or off the pace horses more than the closers, i think it all depends on the PACE....what will it be for this BELMONT???

[NY BRED]

to beat the chalk:

you are going to be close with your selection of the "b" word

unfortunately, you should be zeroing in on your user name(first initial)
or, inmho, the jockey's name such as bejarano on sun river .


this horse truly looks like a belmont winner, and while most people would argue
j.v could have been on either mount, sun river to me looks like the now horse
especially with the post and odds appeal at about 4-1

[kenwoodallpromos]

My pick is Bob And John- won grade I in the slop, can get the job done.
Place- Bluegrass Cat can finih better than Step.
Show- Steppenwolfer.
The only other horse I see by the PP's that is proven at over 121 lbs. is Oh So Awesome- but on the turf. He will be my 4th place horse.
Jazil is not good enough, and some of the others are not proven in graded stakes and will not improve fast enough.

[Fred]

If the track is dry I am going with Deputy Glitters. He has the best bris speed number off his third race back. I am throwing out the Wood (sloppy) and Derby (post) and some trouble. Nice work on Tuesday and jock change to E Prado.



Freddy

[Richard]

I dont believe that the ML for either Blue or Bob will hold up.I fully expect both to be bet below their respective ML.

[LemonSoupKid]

my picks include Steppenwolfer across the board, Jazil to show if it's at wet track, and a Bluegrass Cat/Jazil/Steppenwolfer tri box for little money

good luck guys

LSK

[Jeff P]

posted by joe - i think it all depends on the PACE....what will it be for this BELMONT???

Now THAT's a great question!!! Here's how I see the pace unfolding for this year's Belmont:

Horse(s) I think are going to be sent from the gate:

High Finance, Eibar Coa
Double Galore, Mike Luzzi
Bluegrass Cat, John Velazquez


Horse(s) I think are going to sit behind the pace and stalk:

Deputy Glitters, Edgar Prado


Horse(s) with enough late kick to close and be dangerous at the end:

Sunriver, Rafael Bejarano

Those are my contenders. I'm throwing out all of the others.

Horses who set the pace and then have something left turning for home are always dangerous - no matter what the race or distance. This year's Belmont is very interesting to me because of the rider assignments. Each of the riders on the three horses in this year's Belmont that I think are going to be sent from the gate are all very adept when it comes to one thing: Each has a proven talent to gun for the lead from the gate and then get a horse to relax once it makes the lead. This is a quality that a lot of riders simply don't have. And for my money, a horse on the lead with something left turning for home is always dangerous.

Because of the rider assignments on the speed horses, I don't expect a speed duel to develop in this race. Instead, I expect the pace to be sensible. And if the pace scenario unfolds the way I expect it to, I predict the pacesetter will be very tough to overtake in the stretch.

So, who gets the lead and sets the pace?

I think it comes down to whoever wins the break.

Duh.

Of the three speed horses I have High Finance with Eibar Coa as the quickest from the gate, Bluegrass Cat with Johnny Velazquez as the second quickest, and Double Galore with Mike Luzzi as the third quickest. Whichever horse breaks best among these three gets the lead. I predict that the riders of the other two horses who fail to make the lead will rate just off of the leader. To summarize, I predict the leader will be one of the following three horses, depending on the break:

High Finance, Eibar Coa
Double Galore, Mike Luzzi
Bluegrass Cat, John Velazquez

What about Deputy Glitters and Edgar Prado? He's also a pretty quick horse. I think Edgar has a more patient style as a rider. I therefore predict Edgar will not be sending from the gate. Rather, I predict Edgar will give Deputy Glitters a nice stalking trip from fourth.

Turning for home I expect the other two speed horses that couldn't make the lead to try - and fail - to overtake the leader. They will then tire and not finish in the top three places - although one of them could wind up in fourth place and round out the spuerfecta.

I expect Deputy Glitters and Edgar Prado to overtake the two speed horses that failed to make the lead and continue on to a second or third place finish.

I also predict Rafael Bejarano to rouse Sunriver into making a strong late run. But because of the sensible pace set in front of him, I predict his run will fall short. I predict Sunriver will have to settle for a second or third place finish.

Can this be right? Am I really predicting this year's Belmont will be won wire to wire? Apparently I am. And I predict that the horse who wires this year's Belmont field will be one of the following three horses:

High Finance, Eibar Coa
Double Galore, Mike Luzzi
Bluegrass Cat, John Velazquez

Do I know which one of those three it's going to be? Umm... no. But if the race unfolds the way I think it will... and there are no scratches... and no jockey changes... and the grounds crew doesn't do anything different in the way of track maintenance... that's a lot of ifs I know... I should know right after the break.


-jp

.

[Guided By Voices]

If High Finance wins, who takes the lead for 3yo HOY?

[Guided By Voices]

BTW, I am not an exotics player.

x2 Win on High Finance
x3 Win on Hemingway's Key
x4 Win on Deputy Glitters

Good luck!

[betchatoo]

My contenders in order

Steppenwolfer: Seems to have improved with each added distance. Eligible to take one more step forward in this race

Deputy Glitters. Beat the favorite, Bluegrass Cat pretty easily 3 races back. His next race was in the slop and then he had a rough trip in the Derby. Could have a big day at a big price

Oh So Awesome: Dark horse at big odds

Bluegrass Cat: Has done nothing wrong, just a major underlay

Underneath I'll use High Finance and Sunriver

[NYPlayer]

The horse I'm pretty Sure i'm gonna bet is Step. This horse might just be ready to make a forward move. He's raced very consistently as a three year old, and put together string of solid races. Maybe the 5 weeks rest will trigger a better performance.

Blugrass cat looks like the best horse in here, but has a tendency to bounce off his good efforts. He ran well in the Derby after bouncing in the Wood, but can he match it or go forward? That's kind of iffy. Sunriver also has raced well (better top figure than my first choice), but he looks ready for a bounce.

good luck to all.

[JackS]

Pencil quick figs-
1. Bob and John
2. Sunriver
3. High Finance
4. Deputy Glitters
5. Oh So Awesome
6. Sacred Light
High Finance Proved to have the top figs here but seems to be woefully under raced at the level he will face today. Under the top two with a saver only. Potential for greatness maybe, but will probably have to come later.

[fmhealth]

1- Bob & John--Only Grade-1 winner in the race. Looked like a monster before the Derby. As pointed out earlier, Derby horses usually have a conditioning edge in this race. Looks to have the right style & "race shape" to pounce entering the stretch.

2-Bluegrass Cat--Has as many wins at BEL as the rest of the entries combined. Tough, well-conditioned and sitting on another strong race. PLETCHER!!

3- Sunriver--Pletcher!! Likes the track, good post. Ran down a loose on the lead lone speedster last time.

My bets will be a per & Tri box with the above & a win bet on B&J.

[kenwoodallpromos]

FM Health- can you expand on good vs. bad post in thios race?

[betchatoo]

Rain last night at Belmont means I'm adding Bob and John to my list

[Guided By Voices]

It may have rained last night, but it is a dry and windy day today.

[fmhealth]

Ken, PPs are obviously not an overly important issue in a race of this length. I simply prefer a runner that will hopefully save some ground into the 1st turn. As you know, many days when there is a marquee race, the maintainance crew really gets cranking. Have seen this result in many inside favoring trips.

In any event, best of luck.

[Slower]

I hear you "fmhealth", a day late and a dollar short. I liked "Bob & John" but they threw the race by running on top with a horse that has never done that in his 10 race career. I guess nobody wanted to go out so "Bob & John" had no other choice. I liked "Jazil" and had him in the wrong position in my make believe exotics.

Slower

[Ron]

BAZIL WINS!

[46zilzal]

I hear you "fmhealth", a day late and a dollar short. I liked "Bob & John" but they threw the race by running on top with a horse that has never done that in his 10 race career. I guess nobody wanted to go out so "Bob & John" had no other choice. I liked "Jazil" and had him in the wrong position in my make believe exotics.



Bob and John's form was getting earlier and earlier and this one was doomed to go to the front and subsequently burn out.