Getting Lucky

[NEhandicapper]

I’ve read through some of the posts in a prior thread discussing the issues of too much handicapping information. While reading the thread, I thought the subject of luck would be discussed. I enjoyed the discussion on viable handicapping factors, but I thought a discussion bringing luck factor to light would be entertaining. I’ll start off with a story about my first signer.

When I first started playing horses, I spent a significant amount of time at the Turf Club (An OTB chain in Philadelphia run by the park) as my baptism of fire. I got caught up in the simulcasting and tried to follow too many tracks. Throughout the day I was placing some trifecta bets and decided to box one of the Turf Clubs program picks and went right to the machine and placed the bet since post time was a minute away. When I got back to my table to watch the race, I soon found out that I placed a wager using a different tracks picks. I could not beleive I did such a dumb mistake, how could I of written down the wrong track picks? I remember looking at my ticket, and then the monitor seeing the horses in my three horse box were going off at 20-1, 5-1, and 30-1. As the horse reached the starting gate, I was a bit upset that I threw away $12 for such a lousy bet that had a little chance of hitting - in fact, since nature called, I decided to hit the restroom instead of watching the race.

I was shocked when I came back from the restroom and saw the probable winners were the three horses I boxed. I was even more shocked when the race became official and the price for the $1 tri was $1800! Not bad for being a complete idiot. It took me a few more years to accomplish hitting these types of payoffs at a rate of about two a year; which may not seem much, but I do not wager much money and keep my combinations very low, and I have more success playing pick 3’s and 4’s. But I still have to depend on a little luck to get me the signer. Anyone else have any luck stories?

[WJ47]

I believe in luck! :) Unfortunately most of mine is bad luck lately. I think some people are luckier than others. People spend millions of dollars each year on lucky charms! I think its possible to get into a funk where you actually create bad luck for yourself, like a self fulfilling prophesy.

LOL, like when you're alive in a pick 4 and you see the payoff to your pick is going to be HUGE! And you just know that something is going to happen to mess it up. So you're watching the race and the horse either gets a bad ride or falls over the rail or the jockey falls off.

The worst bad luck I had this year hasn't been at the track though. We bought our first brand new vehicle, a black Nissan Titan. We were so careful with it, parking in the farthest spot in the lot and keeping it nice. When it had 900 miles on it, the windshield cracked. When it had 1200 miles on it, the battery needed replacing. When it had 1500 miles on it, the windshield cracked again. At 2000 miles, the steering wheel had to be replaced. At 2400 miles, it needed another new windshield. At 3000 miles, the stereo needed to be replaced and when it hit 4000 miles, the brakes and rudders went. In the meantime, there were also 2 recalls. Then on the morning of Superbowl Sunday this year, I heard a huge crash at about 6am. I went outside to investigate and my neighbors 20 foot trampoline had flown over his 8 foot privacy fence, over our fence, and smashed into our Titan. It was damaged on almost all of its panels, scratches and dents everywhere. So it has 5400 miles on it and gets hit by a trampoline. Talk about terrible luck, its like this truck is Christine from that Stephen King movie or something. LOL, needless to say, no more new vehicles for me. I'm going to get beater cars for the rest of my life. When I called the police dispatcher to report the accident, I thought I heard her laughing in the background! And worse, the neighbor's insurance company wouldn't cover it, they said it was an act of God!

Sometimes, when I get shut out of a race and the horse I liked loses, I feel like "I got away with one". But most often, the reverse happens, if you get shut out, the horse will win at huge odds. If you get the bet down, he'll lose like a dog!

[kitts]

I do not have an amazing luck story to offer. I once believed that one made their own good luck but I have modified that one. Luck is a factor but there is not much one can do to modify or improve it. Now and then I do experience maximum confidence. I may go back and increase my bet or add a few more exotics. My memory tells me that these situations with amazing insight all resulted in success. Maybe I am wrong there, too. I just love the game!

[ceejay]

Luck is by definition random. It happens. Add up a bunch of random #'s and what do you get? ZERO

I hit a ($1800?) P4 because Powerscourt was unjustly DQed in the Million for "interfering" with the 3rd place finisher.

[OTM Al]

I generally refer to such occurances not as luck but as, ahem close your ears kiddies, F%$$ing up in reverse. I wish I did it a little more often rather than in my standard straight forward form :)

[csperberg]

Talk about bad luck stories, here are my top 3 from a little over the last year.


early in 2005 I was handicapping a pick 6 at Santa Anita. I had a very very limited bank roll of $32 fest from the weekend. I know most would say thats not enough to play the pick 6 with. Anyway I had my pick laid out 1x2x1x3x1x3 for $36 and just couldnt find one of the horses to throw out and feel comfortable. I mentioned to my wife it would be nice to have an extra $4 to place this wager. She didnt want to give it up since she already had given me what she felt was enough money over the weekend, and didnt understand how much a pick 6 can pay off. Needless to say I had to sit and watch as what would have been only a $36 investment come home to a decent pay off of around $38,000.


Now these other 2 come from earlier this past May. I was bored and decided to try out some new methods of handicapping. I was not playing with any real money at the time and just posted my selections online over a 3 day period. I was only posting a few races from a few tracks, I was using free PP's found on the net. Anyway over a that 3 day period I missed out on scoring on 2 supers that paid nearly $6,500 each, not to mention the tri and exacta pay off for those either. In the end, if I would have had money to bet with, I would have walked away with over $13,000 during that 3 day stretch with little investment up front.


So within a little over a year I basically let over $51,000 slip by simply because the funds just were not there :mad:. The handicapping was there and everything. So the moral of the story is having a bank roll really helps if you want to actually win money..lol :lol:


Another woulda coulda shoulda but didnt story, which I am sure everyone has plenty of those. I know they dont hold any real merit, but when you put it down on paper and its just because its a bank roll issue it makes it alot harder to swallow, especially since none of the tickets actually required a big bank roll to play. These are not the woulda coulda shoulda stories about how you should have played a ticket. It would be alot differnt if I said I handicapped a pick 6 and didnt have the couple hundred or thousands to play it, this was only for $36. The supers would have only cost $48 to box my top 4. So they were affordable plays for almost any budget.


Missing the pick 6 score made me sick to my stomach and even my wife after watching it come home. It may be a long time before an advatage like that comes around, if ever again for that cheap of a pick 6 ticket. The supers yeah would have been nice to nail those scores since the best single pay off in the 2 years I started betting the horses is only a $594 on a $1 increment. They didnt make me as sick to my stomach though because I know there is a way better chance to nail a few big supers or tri's than nailing a pick 6.


Anyway thats my story on luck or lack there of in my short horse racing adventures. I am sure I am on my way to telling many more as well..lol.

May everyone get that lucky break they deserve sometime in their life, I am sure most of us could use it.

[Mike at A+]

Here's my luck story (actually it has happened several times):

I use BrisBet mostly to make my bets and several times when I have a busy day of chores ahead of me, I put in a few hundred bets and then go about my daily business without watching the races. Many times, as I am in "bet mode", my wife will come in and ask me something that usually ends up distracting me and I forget if I had put in my last bet correctly. I know I could click "Show Today's Bets" but sometimes that takes a long time to come up on the screen. So I play it safe and make whatever bet I am not certain if I already put in.

Now, here's the amazing part - the first FIVE times I did this and ended up making the same bet twice, it WON. The sixth time, it lost but several times after that, it won again. Nothing huge but always a pleasant surprise.

[John]

" Lucky let me tell you about lucky "

" If I bet on a 2 horse race. My horse comes in 3rd "

Joe E. Louis

[mikekk]

Had a Good one at Emerald Downs last year. 6F race with 2 speedsters, neither particularly brave. I decided to take the best closer, figuring these 2 would duel each other into defeat. Also made an exacta-as-place bet, keying my closer top and bottom with the speedsters. As they left the gate, one speedster had been bet down to 6-5, the other was sitting at 4-1; my closer was a juicy 13-1.

The plan worked well off the top...the 2 speedsters were going at each other, well ahead of the field. Problem was, my key horse was a good 15 lengths out of it when they hit the turn, and the speedsters weren't stopping.

Halfway down the stretch, the 6-5 pulled away from the 4-1; my closer wasn't in the picture. Then, luck happened. The 6-5 came over on the 4-1, who had to check HARD. Then he (the 6-5) straightened course, and rambled to the wire. My closer, who had no hope of doing anything but filling the tri, managed to get past the 4-1 a step before the wire.

INQUIRY!

Down goes the 6-5; up comes my 13-1. Whoo! A juicy $28.80 payoff.

But it's better! 6-5 goes down to 3rd; 4-1 comes up to 2nd. Exacta pays $228.00

I think my Karma needs replenishing...but it sure made up for a lot of missed photos!

Mikekk

[KingChas]

I can remember (at least) three lucky scores.

Monmouth Park-mdn turf-while ago (15yrs?) Betting on pedigree alone I played a $5 exacta box on two decent priced horses.My horses were all alone in 2nd & 3rd about 10 lghts behind the winner :confused: with 100yds to go.The damm horse jumped the inner rail giving me a $250 ex 2.5 times. :D

Santa Anita-no program,no form.8 horse race very sloppy.watching post parade I saw only two horses that didn't look like they were tiptoeing on ice.
keyed them in the triple w/ all $12---paid $5k(IRS).Why didn't I play the $2 trip? :D

Now for being real lucky.Had a $50 win bet on a decent priced horse at Churchill Downs.He finished 2nd.Winner was Dq'd and I won.The jock that was Dq'd....Pat Day...now that's lucky! ;)

[StartedAt18]

I got a good one. It was about 4 years ago. First of all, I don't know what the hell I was thinking! There were 7 horses in the race at Laurel and I boxed 7-1-2-3 for the trifecta. 7 was 1/9 odds. 1,2&3 were between 10 & 18 to 1. I'm watching the race thinking how stupid I am for making this bet. As they hit the last turn the 7 was winning comfortably and 2/3/1 were right behind it. Tell me why the 7 goes wide on the turn! 2 and 3 end up passing him and when they get to the wire the freaken 1 passess the 7 for 3rd. I'm screaming cause I'm the only one at Rosecroft crazy enough to have the 7 out the money. Anyway.. The trifecta payed $1600 on a dollar and that's how I got my sony computer that I have now.

That's the name of the game.. SHHH happens.

[speculus]

Luck is by definition random. It happens. Add up a bunch of random #'s and what do you get? ZERO
I hit a ($1800?) P4 because Powerscourt was unjustly DQed in the Million for "interfering" with the 3rd place finisher.

"It is the mark of an inexperienced man not to believe in luck." Joseph Conrad

"The smarter you play, the luckier you'll be." Mark Pilarski