Common Blunders Some Handicappers Make

[wes]

http://www.cynthiapublishing.com/MitchellArticles/dm20000821.htm

Common Blunders Some Handicappers Make
by Dick Mitchell



wes

[cato]

Most common blunder: Bet too many races !

[46zilzal]

Most common blunder: Bet too many races !
often the case with most of us

[Overlay]

My addition to the list would be:

Focus only on picking the winning horse or combination, with no consideration of whether its odds are higher or lower than its actual chance of coming in.

[BlueShoe]

Certainly agree that playing too many races is my own personal bugaboo,and that of many a player as well.Taking a flyer on a race that we have no business being in and should walk away from is,in my opinion,the cause of the lack of being a winner at the track for many a player.Have often thought that I should play 1/3 as many races as I do,and on the races I do play,bet 5 times as much.My ROI surely would go up.Now,if only I could stick to this---.

[Sailwolf]

Certainly agree that playing too many races is my own personal bugaboo,and that of many a player as well.Taking a flyer on a race that we have no business being in and should walk away from is,in my opinion,the cause of the lack of being a winner at the track for many a player.Have often thought that I should play 1/3 as many races as I do,and on the races I do play,bet 5 times as much.My ROI surely would go up.Now,if only I could stick to this---.


Every since I play at home, the number of races passed has increased at least 500%. (ie at the track pass 1 race. Now pass half the card at each track.)

At the track, you cannot do much of anything else but play each race. At home, you get up from the screen and do something else.:ThmbUp:

[bigmack]

Amongst those that feel playing too much brings down your roi and express you'd be better off playing less - what is the typical style of play that you utilize?

Win - exacta - ?

I've found many players throw loot around at many given situations and pay little attention to what their expectations are for their efforts. To come to the game with some level of experience and to adhere to a definative levle of daily/monthly profit can be of benefit.

Many players simply throw dough around and hope for the best. Early on in my entry into the game I could be up a large sum and by the end of the day I gave much of it back. And then I graduated from that class.

In my play and experience it's of utmost importance to have a level of expectation from the game, reach it, and either step away or take a peek at further play but risk little in the way of the gains of the day.

For some it might be $100/day for others larger amounts.

[ironeyes]

well said bigmac... it is indeed one of best approaches towards the game

[ryesteve]

Actually, I would completely disagree. The problem some people have is that when they're doing well, they start to feel ominscient and begin making foolish bets. The thing to do is continue playing the same way you always do. Scaling back because you're ahead is no better than getting overly aggressive and sloppy because you're "playing with the track's money"

[MONEY]

My most common Blunder is that sometimes I think I know what I am doing.

[speculus]

I am indebted to Dick Mitchell for introducing me to money management. Before that I used to think that if you are a good handicapper, you can do without money management.

I believe there was a time in Dick's handicapping life when he very strongly believed betting his top two picks for win was THE best strategy (I could NEVER get myself to agree to this AS A RULE), but later, in one of the mails he added, "the best--provided the higher odds pick wins more often."

Having said that, the two biggest common blunders I have seen handicappers make are:

CHASING LOSSES. They may do so on only one senseless day, but the ill-effect of such action can last a season, or in some cases, even for a lifetime.
CHANGING OPINION before betting. If you have done your handicapping well, listening to others/rumors/inside info and letting it affect your betting is another most common blunder. I think only physicality inspection and/or too low odds are the factors that may justify a re-assessment of handicapping decision.

[Dave Schwartz]

The biggest mistake that horseplayers make is that they try to improve their results by improving their handicapping instead of their wagering.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[JimG]

If you are handicapping and playing races and having a good day, it is very easy to let the feeling of "can't miss" creep in and result in poor money management and decision making (increasing wagers, playing more per race, etc.) If this describes your current psychological makeup, then setting a winning limit is not a bad idea at all.

However, if you data mine (like I suspect ryesteve and others here do), then whether you or winning or losing at the time should have no bearing on how you play. Your bets are laid out...you check the tote for value...and continue playing in the same methodical manner. It takes many years of winning and losing and a certain mindset to remove emotion regarding how you are currently doing from affecting bets in the immediate future. One way to help accomplish this mindset is to keep betting records and know whether you are a strong player in the long run. If you know what pct. winners and/or roi to reasonably expect in the long term, then you should not get too high or too low regarding the current short term trend.

I find myself in complete agreement with Dave S. regarding the point that from my experience most losing players I have met need to work more on their betting strategies and money management, not their handicapping.

[ratpack]

Can't remember which book I read it in but if you are way ahead then maybe it is time to go for the big score with the tracks money.

I hear what your saying about haphazard bets but if you are way ahead and you had a planned prime bet coming up that you were going to bet $50 to win on that horse, it might not be a bad idea to see if you can make a bigger score.

[Overlay]

It takes many years of winning and losing and a certain mindset to remove emotion regarding how you are currently doing from affecting bets in the immediate future. One way to help accomplish this mindset is to keep betting records and know whether you are a strong player in the long run. If you know what pct. winners and/or roi to reasonably expect in the long term, then you should not get too high or too low regarding the current short term trend.

Keeping my handicapping and wager sizing as objective and statistically-oriented or quantitative as possible also helps me in that department, while at the same time making it easier for me to analyze and adjust whatever part of the handicapping model isn't performing as expected if results turn negative.

[TurfRuler]

I still suffer from my own personal pschic pergatory since I have not been to a racing/betting facility since November of 2004. I've even had thoughts that it was only last year ('05) that I wagered real money.

[Jeff P]

posted by Dave Schwartz - The biggest mistake that horseplayers make is that they try to improve their results by improving their handicapping instead of their wagering.
posted by JimG - I find myself in complete agreement with Dave S. regarding the point that from my experience most losing players I have met need to work more on their betting strategies and money management, not their handicapping.
posted by ratpack- I hear what your saying about haphazard bets but if you are way ahead and you had a planned prime bet coming up that you were going to bet $50 to win on that horse, it might not be a bad idea to see if you can make a bigger score.
posted by Overlay - Keeping my handicapping and wager sizing as objective and statistically-oriented or quantitative as possible also helps me in that department, while at the same time making it easier for me to analyze and adjust whatever part of the handicapping model isn't performing as expected if results turn negative.
Money Management/Discipline...

What if the player takes a set amount of money and uses it to create a playing bankroll? What happens if the player then determines ahead of time a reasonable percentage of bankroll to play on each race? Further, what happens if that percentage of bankroll is based on the strength of each play as determined by the individual player's own betting records? And what happens if the player, after carefully reviewing his or her own records, sees that certain types of plays are historical net losers and then avoids those play types going forward? Taking things a little further, what happens if the player sets a few goals along the way in terms of predefined playing sessions? For example, when the bankroll reaches X size then the objective for that session has been achieved. Y dollars are removed (or added) and the next set of session objectives are set and play continues until they are reached.

Is this starting to sound at all like a disciplined approach?

If the player has an edge doesn't this type of disciplined approach enable the player to grow a tiny starting bankroll into a larger one? And then through repetition - theoretically at least - grow that larger bankroll into something substantial?

I happen to think one of the biggest blunders almost all players make day in and day out is not having (or not following through with) a well thought out plan for growing a small bankroll into a larger one.


-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

I happen to think one of the biggest blunders almost all players make day in and day out is not having (or not following through with) a well thought out plan for growing a small bankroll into a larger one.

YES! YES! and YES!

Many if not all people starting out in this game make a huge mistake by betting way too much. Even many seasoned veterans are guilty of same.

It's that whole machismo thing at work....:bang:

[speculus]

Can't remember which book I read it in but if you are way ahead then maybe it is time to go for the big score with the tracks money.

Many people make the mistake of getting bolder and betting bigger when they feel they have amassed good profit levels.

The truth is, in this game, only those who have a track record of consistently being flat bet winners should be adopting the "getting bolder with profit" strategy. For someone who has touched decent profit levels, but has a flat bet loser profile, the best way is to skim off the profit and restart with a conservative bankroll.

I am convinced in my gut that there must be a way to prove this mathematically, but frankly I have not yet applied my mind to it. Is there anyone on this board who already has the proof of what I am proposing? I should be delighted to read the confirmation that what I am saying is true.

[Tom]

The biggest mistake that horseplayers make is that they try to improve their results by improving their handicapping instead of their wagering.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz


Wow boy!
Bow, bow, bow!

You said a mouth full.

What is the sense of a few more wininers every wek if you mis-play them.
I can't remeber how many times I went to the track wtih three solid bets, they all won, and I came home losing!
Or my pick hits for $30 and I lose because of all the exactas I boxed.

[Tom]

One of the stupidest blunders I make, and this has happened a couple of times, is when betting on BrisBet, I have four or five tracks on the super tote, and I make the bet at the wrong dang track! Boy, does make you feel stupid.

[Red Knave]

One of the stupidest blunders I make, and this has happened a couple of times, is when betting on BrisBet, I have four or five tracks on the super tote, and I make the bet at the wrong dang track! And the ONLY time you get the winner, is when you realize your mistake and cancel the bet.
Right?
:rolleyes:

[BlueShoe]

Besides the aforementioned betting too many races,another common blunder all of us sometimes make is betting more on your losers than you do on your winners.Many has been the time when I have bet,say,$10 on an "action" play and see it win,and then bet $50 on a "prime" selection that "cant lose",at a short price,and then watch it finish up the track.Am very slowly coming to the conclusion that my action bets that go off at good prices,like 5-1 and up,outperform my short priced prime plays.More record checking and testing is in order.

[spilparc]

Besides the aforementioned betting too many races,another common blunder all of us sometimes make is betting more on your losers than you do on your winners.Many has been the time when I have bet,say,$10 on an "action" play and see it win,and then bet $50 on a "prime" selection that "cant lose",at a short price,and then watch it finish up the track.Am very slowly coming to the conclusion that my action bets that go off at good prices,like 5-1 and up,outperform my short priced prime plays.More record checking and testing is in order.

I love Andy Beyer's books and his writing style, but the one thing he ever came up with that I think is complete nonsense is this idea of "action " bets vs "prime" bets.

If it's worth your time to walk up to the window and bet your money, then that is a prime bet--in other words all bets are prime bets.

Distinguishing between bets you're serious about and bets that are just for fun is in my opinion an excuse for compulsive gambling.

Bet when you have the best of it, and if you can't do that you probably have a gambing problem.

[JackS]

I believe Dick Mitchell and others have often commented that players play into races that their really unqualified to make any judgment about. This includes me and probably most others.
My lack of organization does not distinguish between races I'm good at and the "types" I'm not. My day at the races plan is to play every race weather I know what I'm doing and even if I don't know what I'm doing. My method relys on two factors- skill and luck. These two factors can result in a positive ROI but imagine if the player would actually take the time and discover for him/herself exactly where true skills lay.
Compulsive gamblers are relatively rare here at PA (IMO). They rely on tips and various Martingales coupled to only a fundamental understanding of handicapping. When they aren't playing the horses, they're at the slots or card table, then on the way home, a quick stop to pick up some Lotto tickets. In general, I believe this type of gambler doesn't last long. Not only does he go broke, but everyone associated with him (family, friends , creditors) recognise the problem even if he doesn't.
I think most members at PA rank as (relative to bank roll) small losers,break even or small winners. Small winners can be somewhat of misnomer when viewed over a long period of time.

[JohnGalt1]

Prime vs. action bets---In an old handicapping book I think by Bob McKnight, he wrote that if a bet isn't worth making at $100 then it's not worth making at $2.

I bet the same to win in every race. When going good I increase the amount in slight increments. When suffering through second-itis, as I am going through now (I wish I was a place better sometimes.) I gradually lower my bets.

A craps player named Sam Grafstein said when you're losing dollars, bet dimes, because when you start winning again dimes will turn into dollars.