HOLLYWOOD PICK 6 SAT

[bigmack]

Was fortunate enough to have 5 of 6 on Sat though it took a large ticket to yield. Had one guy in my group fight vigorously for the deuce in the 3rd and as we couldn't include all possibles you have to throw out some.

He actually made a case for her to come from off the pace, which I never saw in a million years.

Someone or group had all 6 for 1.5 mil.

In others opinion, are most P6 tickets played by syndicates?

[betovernetcapper]

Is the guy still in your group? That has to be a tough loss.

[JustRalph]

I cashed on that horse. I just thought the field was so bad that if that horse was going to get well.......... now was the time.

I waited until the last minute to place my bets. Couldn't believe anybody else in that group would be able to stay up. It worked out. if that would have cost me the pick 6, I would have been either really pissed or maybe not so. That was a tough race..........bunch of dead ones. Mine was a flyer.

[Ron]

In others opinion, are most P6 tickets played by syndicates?

No.

[bigmack]

I cashed on that horse. I just thought the field was so bad that if that horse was going to get well.......... now was the time.

I waited until the last minute to place my bets. Couldn't believe anybody else in that group would be able to stay up. It worked out. if that would have cost me the pick 6, I would have been either really pissed or maybe not so. That was a tough race..........bunch of dead ones. Mine was a flyer.
I've heard the case for the hoss from another. May I ask how you figured that deuce as a contender?

[JustRalph]

I've heard the case for the hoss from another. May I ask how you figured that deuce as a contender?

Go back to the race he ran on 2 Feb 06. If he runs anything near that, guess what? He kills the group he was facing.

I also liked the fact that he was with a new trainer, 2nd out after the claim.
The new trainer is 71% in the money in this situation. Although it is a very small sample size. 29% winners in the same scenario. If you use that paceline from 2 Feb 06 and run it thru my program (Equisim) you find the horse has more than a fair chance, and this race was ripe for a meltdown up front. Almost all E types. No real bona fide late closers etc. This horse didn't run back to my paceline that I picked, but he ran pretty good. Like I said earlier, this race was ripe for a surprise. I waited and waited until the last minute and tossed 20 to win and place on the horse just as a flyer. If I had been playing a pick six (which I never do, btw) I am pretty sure I would have been in a real pickle on whether or not to leave that one on the ticket. I rarely get as good a picture of the "race shape" as I did on this one. But it just seemed ripe for an improver to steal from the back.

I made some very serious changes in the way I look at some races in the last week. I realized that I was not "seeing them" the way I should. I concentrated really hard on race shape and I had one of my biggest weekends yet. It was nice to pick some nice ones this weekend. The fact that they came from the back of the pack is what is different for me. That horse in the last race at Churchill today was one of those races where I just sat there thinking I was losing my mind. The horse goes off 14-1 and he has the highest speed ratings of anybody in the field and runs pretty consistently. He has a 118 in March (Bris number) and nobody else is near that. But he is first on Turf? This horse made it look easy. He waited way late to push the button, but I don't think the horse was even winded........

[JustRalph]

That horse in the last race at Churchill today was one of those races where I just sat there thinking I was losing my mind. The horse goes off 14-1 and he has the highest speed ratings of anybody in the field and runs pretty consistently. He has a 118 in March (Bris number) and nobody else is near that. But he is first on Turf?

Ok, I confused that horse with another I played today........he wasn't first on turf. My error.............

http://www.columbuscool.com/yucatan.jpg

[bigmack]

Go back to the race he ran on 2 Feb 06. If he runs anything near that, guess what? He kills the group he was facing.

I also liked the fact that he was with a new trainer, 2nd out after the claim.
The new trainer is 71% in the money in this situation. Although it is a very small sample size. 29% winners in the same scenario. If you use that paceline from 2 Feb 06 and run it thru my program (Equisim) you find the horse has more than a fair chance, and this race was ripe for a meltdown up front. Almost all E types. No real bona fide late closers etc. This horse didn't run back to my paceline that I picked, but he ran pretty good. Like I said earlier, this race was ripe for a surprise. I waited and waited until the last minute and tossed 20 to win and place on the horse just as a flyer. If I had been playing a pick six (which I never do, btw) I am pretty sure I would have been in a real pickle on whether or not to leave that one on the ticket. I rarely get as good a picture of the "race shape" as I did on this one. But it just seemed ripe for an improver to steal from the back.

I made some very serious changes in the way I look at some races in the last week. I realized that I was not "seeing them" the way I should. I concentrated really hard on race shape and I had one of my biggest weekends yet. It was nice to pick some nice ones this weekend. The fact that they came from the back of the pack is what is different for me. That horse in the last race at Churchill today was one of those races where I just sat there thinking I was losing my mind. The horse goes off 14-1 and he has the highest speed ratings of anybody in the field and runs pretty consistently. He has a 118 in March (Bris number) and nobody else is near that. But he is first on Turf? This horse made it look easy. He waited way late to push the button, but I don't think the horse was even winded........
That's what my partner said about the Jan5 race and it was a big effort I'll give you that. However, as we work with TPR's if I took the best from each of the field she still is back a ways for me. The trainer angle is of interest and I didn't see that it was the second race after a claim although I'm less than enthusiast about Andrew Harris and his record at Hollywood.

She's (the horse) been so off form for a while that as previously mentioned I had to throw some out. It was just painful busting out so early in the ticket. Early as in the first of the P6. Anywho JR thanks very much for your take. It's of interest to get an outsiders view. All the best.

[Sailwolf]

In others opinion, are most P6 tickets played by syndicates?

My understanding is Barry Meadow would say yes. If anything, in one of his newsletters, he stated for an effective chance (more than 5%) at hitting the pick 6, a ticket would have to be cost over $5,000.

Too rich for my blood.

I like the "poor man's pick 6" (pick4)

[bigmack]

Where do you zoom in on P4's sail?

[bigmack]

No.
You've got some splaining to do Ron. What's your book?

[Sailwolf]

Where do you zoom in on P4's sail?



4 races and only a dollar (instead of 2 dollars) just like the .10 superfecta.

(I think it is amazing I could be betting on Hong Kong racing right now and watching the race - You bet.com)


last pick 4 (6-3-06) at Hol paid almost $10,000

[bigmack]

4 races and only a dollar (instead of 2 dollars) just like the .10 superfecta.

(I think it is amazing I could be betting on Hong Kong racing right now and watching the race - You bet.com)


last pick 4 (6-3-06) at Hol paid almost $10,000
The card @ HOL was brutal today. We were lucky to get away with the 4 in the 10th. Other than that it was a tough, tough card there today.

[Sailwolf]

The card @ HOL was brutal today. We were lucky to get away with the 4 in the 10th. Other than that it was a tough, tough card there today.


Will Sunday be as interesting? Especially since PA downs has the 8th to think about a bet.

I hope so, since I won a couple like the 10th. (had a chance at 9-1)

[Turfday]

nm

[bigmack]

TD

Any link to the source?

[betovernetcapper]

The 1.5 millon Pic6 was won by someone in Nevada with a $195 ticket.

[BMeadow]

"Barry Meadow would say yes. If anything, in one of his newsletters, he stated for an effective chance (more than 5%) at hitting the pick 6, a ticket would have to cost over $5,000."

Not correct. Depends on the chances to win of each leg.

Assume that horses win in proportion to the amount bet on them. Here's a sample calculation, much simplified, with each selection's predicted tote odds and the percentage of time horses with these odds win:

1st leg: 62%=====8-5 (32%), 7-2 (18%), 6-1 (12%)
2nd leg: 42%=====1-1 (42%)
3rd leg: 68%=====5-2 (24%), 4-1 (17%), 4-1 (17%), 7-1 (10%)
4th leg: 77%=====3-1 (28%, 4-1 (17%), 5-1 (14%), 8-1 (9%), 8-1 (9%)
5th leg: 60%=====2-5 (38%)
6th leg: 80%=====3-1 (21%), 3-1 (21%), 4-1 (17%), 9-1 (8%), 10-1 (8%), 16-1 (5%)

This ticket would cost $720 and would have a 6.5% chance of hitting.

This calculation in no way would recommend this particular ticket (or NOT recommend it, either). I would never play a ticket with no price horses on it, so among the various things I do is eliminate any ticket which has nothing but favorites and second choices on it. In addition, there are many other factors to consider (e.g., size of carryover, number of races I think offer some value, potential favorites to play against, etc.). It's also extremely rare that I would play one big ticket, instead using A's, B's, and C's to put more money on horses that are either (a) more likely to win (b) also more value than some other horses.

All this is explained in detail in my booklet Secrets Of The Pick 6.

Barry Meadow (trpublishing.com)

[bigmack]

I've heard of your proclivity toward the P6 or in the very least to sell systems towards its regard but breaking down the % possibility within each leg seems almost foolhearty to advocate.

[PaceAdvantage]

I've heard of your proclivity toward the P6 or in the very least to sell systems towards its regard but breaking down the % possibility within each leg seems almost foolhearty to advocate.

I don't think Mr. Meadow sells any Pick 6 "systems." Have you seen the products offered on his website? I don't think any of them would qualify as a Pick 6 system, do you?

[bigmack]

No

[charlieparks53]

Bob Selvin never heard of him, is he another tout sheet or something. How good is he.