pinnacle matchup picks 06/02/2006

[formula_2002]

A lot easier playing against a 2%-3% vig!



track race name line line
BEL R4 6F LOG JAM -103
BEL R4 6F PECONIC BA -113 play

BEL R7 7F KLEPTO CAT 101
BEL R7 7F KELLY KS P -117 play

CD R10 0 9 WINLOCS GL -161 *play
CD R10 0 9 RESOLUTION 145

CD R10 1 5 IMPRESSED 107
CD R10 1 5 LUCKY TRAI -123 play

CD R6 5F HIGH HERIT -136 *play
CD R6 5F DRAMATIC S 120

CD R9 6 WW CONQUIS -140
CD R9 6 MY KIND OF 124 play

HOL R5 8 HELMSMASTE -104 play
HOL R5 8 SNOWY RIVE -112

HOL R6 5 SPRINGSTRE -173 *play
HOL R6 5 AMIGA MIA 157

HOL R7 8 HAKA GIRL -124 play
HOL R7 8 SANTA FE 108

[ryesteve]

Interesting that a lot of these lines have shifted in your favor:

Peconic Bay: -113 to +147 (wow!)
Kelly Ks Pleasure -117 to +100
Lucky Train -123 to -111
High Heritage -136 to -116
Haka Girl -124 to +100

I guess a lot of people are expecting your "regression to the mean" to start happening today :D

[formula_2002]

Interesting that a lot of these lines have shifted in your favor:

Peconic Bay: -113 to +147 (wow!)
Kelly Ks Pleasure -117 to +100
Lucky Train -123 to -111
High Heritage -136 to -116
Haka Girl -124 to +100

I guess a lot of people are expecting your "regression to the mean" to start happening today :D




I like the newer lines, so I calculated again.
two sets of plays today!!

track race name line line
BEL R4 LOG JAM -158
BEL R4 PECONIC BA 142 play

BEL R7 KLEPTO CAT -105
BEL R7 KELLY KS P -111 play

BEL R9 FIXCALL 183 play
BEL R9 SIGH YOU -199

CD R1 WINLOCS GL -186 *play
CD R1 RESOLUTION 170

CD R1 IMPRESSED -105
CD R1 LUCKY TRAI -111 play

CD R6 HIGH HERIT -120 *play
CD R6 DRAMATIC S 104

CD R9 WW CONQUIS -156
CD R9 MY KIND OF 140 play

HOL R5 HELMSMASTE -115 play
HOL R5 SNOWY RIVE -101

HOL R6 SPRINGSTRE -220 *play
HOL R6 AMIGA MIA 204

HOL R7 HAKA GIRL -109 play
HOL R7 SANTA FE -107

[formula_2002]

IN THE 1ST SET OF PLAYS;
1 win, 4 plays, $429 loss, $644 played

IN THE 2ND SET OF PLAY:
1 WIN, 4 PLAYS, $310 LOSS, $514 PLAYED

Oh that mean, mean!!

[ryesteve]

If nothing else, consider the comparison of the two sets to be an illustration of the benefits of line-shopping :)

[formula_2002]

If nothing else, consider the comparison of the two sets to be an illustration of the benefits of line-shopping :)

Here is how I look at it, any "overlay is an overlay".

If I like a beast at -150, I love him at 150.

Both are overlays, it's just that you can make more mistakes at 150 and not get hurt as much at -150..The 150 plays has larger margins.. :)

I just went through a few weeks of plays and must say that my "system" , with at 58% hit race and a 9% profit could be all luck.
You see it's easer to be luckly with a 2 1/2% vig compared to 18%.
That why I'm a craps player (1.41% vig)!!