Commission

[Valuist]

If you want to see a horse whose rider had no interest in winning a race, watch a replay of the opener from Belmont last Saturday. If the stewards had any guts, they would've fined Mike Smith, who rode a horse called Commission. Smith had the horse on the rail w/plenty of room to operate in the stretch; he gave the horse one brief love tap then put away the stick.....a vigorous hand ride? No way. He rode the horse out like a "handily" winner. Commission was out of the camera view late in the race but when he crossed the finish line, Smith was already standing straight up in the irons. All this and he was beaten about 3 lengths. Have to wonder how close he could've been with a little effort on the part of the pinhead.

[Ron]

You watched that race so you know something is going on. What IS going on? What do they have planned for him next time? Commission was kicking ass by this time last year.

[Valuist]

If you didn't see the race or the replay your input is completely meaningless.

[godtomsatan]

Why do I have to sign up for individual tracks for RaceReplays? :bang:

[Jeff P]

Actually, Mike has been riding like this for most of 2006. I first picked up on it at the Gulfstream meet. His preferred style now seems to be: keep them completely away from the front end during the early part of the race - and never ever ask them to run in the stretch. It makes me wonder if something's happened to him - maybe it's something physical. He certainly seems to have lost the will to compete.

I thought it might be interesting to run some stats. Here's what I have in my own database for all Mike Smith mounts for each of the past two years.

Jan 2006 through May 2006:

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor
Filters Applied:
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2006\Q2_2006\pl_Rider_SMITH.txt)
Rider: SMITH M

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 419.20 526.50 445.40
Bet -628.00 -628.00 -628.00
Gain -208.80 -101.50 -182.60

Wins 24 67 94
Plays 314 314 314
PCT .0764 .2134 .2994

ROI 0.6675 0.8384 0.7092
Avg Mut 17.47 7.86 4.74


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -28.90 52.00 0.4442 4 26 .1538 2.0128
2 -17.40 62.00 0.7194 5 31 .1613 2.1102
3 -48.90 82.00 0.4037 3 41 .0732 0.9573
4 -25.40 62.00 0.5903 3 31 .0968 1.2661
5 -59.00 106.00 0.4434 3 53 .0566 0.7406
6 12.80 94.00 1.1362 3 47 .0638 0.8351
7 -31.00 64.00 0.5156 1 32 .0312 0.4089
8 51.00 44.00 2.1591 2 22 .0909 1.1894
9 -30.00 30.00 0.0000 0 15 .0000 0.0000
10 -22.00 22.00 0.0000 0 11 .0000 0.0000
11 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
12 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000




And all Mike Smith mounts for calendar year 2005:

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor
Filters Applied:
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2006\Q2_2006\PM\pl_Complete_History_2005.txt)
Rider: SMITH M

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 1021.30 890.70 940.10
Bet -1232.00 -1232.00 -1232.00
Gain -210.70 -341.30 -291.90

Wins 85 158 228
Plays 616 616 616
PCT .1380 .2565 .3701

ROI 0.8290 0.7230 0.7631
Avg Mut 12.02 5.64 4.12


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -69.40 210.00 0.6695 32 105 .3048 2.2086
2 1.40 164.00 1.0085 20 82 .2439 1.7676
3 -32.80 152.00 0.7842 10 76 .1316 0.9536
4 -12.90 152.00 0.9151 9 76 .1184 0.8582
5 -56.00 126.00 0.5556 4 63 .0635 0.4601
6 47.00 140.00 1.3357 6 70 .0857 0.6212
7 -70.20 124.00 0.4339 2 62 .0323 0.2338
8 -30.40 74.00 0.5892 1 37 .0270 0.1959
9 -50.00 50.00 0.0000 0 25 .0000 0.0000
10 -24.00 24.00 0.0000 0 12 .0000 0.0000
11 -14.00 14.00 0.0000 0 7 .0000 0.0000
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 100.60 2.00 51.3000 1 1 1.0000 7.2471
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000

The top section of each database query shows all Mike Smith mounts for the time period of the query. The bottom section shows the data broken out by odds rank.

In 2005 he won almost 14 percent of his starts. So far in 2006 he's a 7 percent rider. It's not just a case of him getting poorer quality mounts. In 2005 he won 30 percent of his starts when he was on the race favorite. So far in 2006 he's only winning at a 15 percent clip when he's on the race favorite.

I don't have data for all tracks everywhere in my own database. But I do have almost all race dates for NY, FLA, KY, and SOCAL. My gut tells me I have enough data on hand to call it like I see it. Mike has definitely tailed off.

-jp

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[StartedAt18]

Yea that was some crap. Commission was closing great, Mike Smith wanted no part of the money. The horse was waiting for Mike Smith to shift to 4th gear but Mike Smith kept the horse steady in 3rd gear the whole race. That horse could've easily gotten up for show.

[skate]

valuist;

well at least you had a price, i was surprised.

but hey , you were never in the race, and if i owned the horse "commission", id be happy with Smith.

hit him twice, one was a good whack, while others in fr4ont went away from the rail, the #5 took to the rail and he was in front of your horse , but still well off the leaders.
did you have him for forth?
otherwise you'd have him try to make up 5 bl in bout 50 yards.

and did you read, really, the "ron" post?

hang in there

[Valuist]

He was beaten 3 3/4 lengths. I would have to think he could've made it close had the rider let him run at all in the final 3/16ths. The other alternative is that Smith didn't stiff, he just quit. Totally gave up. When the horse reached the finish line he was already standing straight up, and he wasn't about to clip heels w/another horse. I don't mind seeing a rider quit after their horse has dueled hard and has no chance to be on the board, but that wasn't the case here. Just inexcusable. Yeah I did have money on him. I also didn't start this thread until a couple days after the race, when I was able to see the replay a few times.

[tholl]

Could'nt resist: (from DRF Q&A with Andy Beyer)

nokool: Q: Andy,Can Smith win it again with Flashy Bull your thoughts?
Andy Beyer: You've got to be kidding. I'm not sure Smith could win if he were on the reincarnation of Secretariat. He was riding so poorly at Gulfstream this winter that the strongest handicapping angle at the meeting was "Mike Smith off."

[Turntime]

I watched the replay 4 times and have to agree with skate's impression. Smith was riding him strongly through the turn, shook the reins at him at the head of the stretch, gave him a good whack approaching the eighth pole and ... no response. It doesn't appear he could have made up enough ground to get a better placing. The most shocking part of the ride is that Smith guided Commission to the rail(!), completely out of character for him.

I think the soft 1/2 mile fraction really hurt his chances as he was forced to move into a quick third quarter (made up 4 1/2 lengths into a quarter run in .23.51) which apparently took away his closing punch.

[Valuist]

I watched the replay 4 times and have to agree with skate's impression. Smith was riding him strongly through the turn, shook the reins at him at the head of the stretch, gave him a good whack approaching the eighth pole and ... no response. It doesn't appear he could have made up enough ground to get a better placing. The most shocking part of the ride is that Smith guided Commission to the rail(!), completely out of character for him.

I think the soft 1/2 mile fraction really hurt his chances as he was forced to move into a quick third quarter (made up 4 1/2 lengths into a quarter run in .23.51) which apparently took away his closing punch.

LOL. Agree on him going to the rail. A bad spill or two and its amazing how much more appealing the wide trip is for some riders. His body language looked like he was going to run up on heels yet nobody was there.

But you also said "took away his closing punch". He was making up ground late under total restraint the final 1/8th. I'd say the "whack" Smith gave him was around the 3/16ths pole and he had nobody in front of him on the rail. Maybe he wouldn't have gotten there anyways but it clearly wasn't 100% effort on Smith's part.

[sniezer]

All I saw was a tired horse and a rider who didn't force the issue after getting no response from the whip. Was calracing correct that Commission's last race was in August of '05? If so, maybe his instructions were to not beat the horse up first start after a long lay-up.

[socantra]

All I saw was a tired horse and a rider who didn't force the issue after getting no response from the whip. Was calracing correct that Commission's last race was in August of '05? If so, maybe his instructions were to not beat the horse up first start after a long lay-up.
Same here. Claimed out of a race at Belmont where it was vanned off, then one bad race at Saratoga and nine months worth of feed and vet bills. The horse also tired in its only other return showing from a long layoff.

I agree Mike Smith has been having problems, and would probably have a lot more trouble getting mounts were he to start flogging tired horses for no particular reason.

It looked like a test/workout to me.

socantra

[the little guy]

It's also worth mentioning that Commission was claimed from Christophe Clement for $40K after winning two straight races for $50K.

He was a laimo bad claim returning off a 10 month layoff.

[skate]

oh yes;

i agree with the "long time off" being a question (one year).
but since i didn't see the PPs and w.o. i left that for later.

it may be helpful to see the Past PPs and wo. all that i saw was the race.

i myself would look toward being correct, but the Biggest factor on this board would appear to be "break an incorrect inclination".

i would love, i mean Love, to have someone give me One (just one) simple point that i could add or subtract from my capping.

hey hey , i'm just talking bout capping
and 1 point.

[Valuist]

One last comment: when you're beaten double digits, it doesn't look bad when the rider doesn't beat up the horse.

When you are beaten less than 4 lengths, the rider looks very foolish when he can't even give a legitimate hand ride to the wire.

[Jeff P]

posted by Skate - i would love, i mean Love, to have someone give me One (just one) simple point that i could add or subtract from my capping.

hey hey , i'm just talking bout capping
and 1 point. I tried my best... really I did. I'll try it again. Is Mike Smith on your horse? Subtract one point. Keep on subtracting one point until he starts riding better than 7 percent winners.

-jp

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[socantra]

One last comment: when you're beaten double digits, it doesn't look bad when the rider doesn't beat up the horse.

When you are beaten less than 4 lengths, the rider looks very foolish when he can't even give a legitimate hand ride to the wire.

Well, at least the "pinhead" as you call him, probably had the sense not to bet the horse.

socantra

[Valuist]

God I'd hope so. If I was a participant in a pari-mutuel event in which I gave a half-assed effort, I wouldn't bet on myself either.

[skate]

ok Jeff;

i'm embarressed now. don't read my other post, please, nothing personnelly.

but hey, i do believe (i missed you trying) that what you say is factual, but i am coming from the direction (which does not make me right) that if i were to follow what you say about Mike, could you promise me that i'll not miss out on my BIG biffer for the Year.

i had a guy, long ago, keeps telling me (a little joking) to never play an even number with an even number horse, odds are they will not come back to back. and i'll give him this much, we walk up and down the race boards for that day and the day before, he was correct almost every time. the odd number horse came in (top three) much higher %.

and this is very tough, but, i changed my horse bout a month later from MY F... #10 to his #9, ya, lost a nice tri.

but i'm gonna look for Mikes results. i have to add, i'm not a jockey looker, cept for one guy.
also, i don't play odd - even number anymore either.

oh oh oh, i gotta say, i didn't knoiw that Mike was at 7%, gees.

[Jeff P]

And just a few minutes ago in BEL R6... the 2-1 race favorite BIANCA DIVA with Mike Smith aboard finished off the board and up the track.

-jp

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[skate]

the fact that he was 2/1 would most likely get me ooff the horse.

but if that same horse was 12/1, i may consider the play and i would not get off just because Mike was up.

don't make me toss a horse just cause mike is there.
give me "a" mike at 12/1 and he could lose 4 or 5 and i'm still ok..

[Jeff P]

posted by Skate - but if that same horse was 12/1, i may consider the play and i would not get off just because Mike was up. Exactly. But with Mike on I figure I'm looking at a vulnerable favorite. No value. Time to either pass or look elsewhere.

-jp

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[GMB@BP]

anyone here who played bianca diva in that race should be shot.......with no trial