Horses that aren't racing to win, insights?

[Koko]

Gary Voegele, who wrote "Payoff" in the seventies, was one of few authors I've seen who've openly pointed out the fact that many horses aren't running in a given race to collect the purse money. That trainers are constantly using races to both: a. darken their horse's form to get a better price down the road and b. to use a race to find out his condition, rather than attempt to do so through workouts.

I'd like to hear this concept expounded on by those of you in the know at least somewhat.

Why does a race help a trainer determine a horse's condition better than a workout, is it because it brings out the effort and competitive juices out of a horse much more than a workout against even a single opponent?

Why not use races as workouts almost exclusively rather than workouts? The benefit would be the additional ugly, form darkening races on a horses record, hopefully giving better prices when he is ready to fire. Is the downside of using races for conditioning the cost, the risk of injury, why not do so more often?

[46zilzal]

Why not use races as workouts almost exclusively rather than workouts? The benefit would be the additional ugly, form darkening races on a horses record, hopefully giving better prices when he is ready to fire. Is the downside of using races for conditioning the cost, the risk of injury, why not do so more often?
ever go back to the stall with a horse after a race? Many are exhausted, they often get cuts, run down in the fetlocks, some don't eat or lift their legs for days after.

Conditioning via works leaves enough gas in the tank to run later on. Easy choice, not the only one, but easier on the horse.

[Ron]

Like a heavyweight boxing match

[kenwoodallpromos]

I consider a horse that keeps the same lengths back of the leader throughout as being tested.
Some bettors think there should be a "WM" in the PP's!

[Koko]

Voegele's two last race profiles that indicated that a horse may now be fit for their next race were what he called plus and minus races.

He looked for horses that showed smooth performances that either started fast and fell off after the second call typically or horses that started rather slowly and gained ground later in the race. His theory was that these races were typical of situations where trainers were either testing a horse to see how fit he is, or knowing he's fit but wanting a workout rather than an attempt to win a race out of the horse's class as well as a chance to form darken using that race.

[46zilzal]

I consider a horse that keeps the same lengths back of the leader throughout as being tested.
Some bettors think there should be a "WM" in the PP's!
or just unable to keep up to the pace of the leader.

[Tom]

Speed / fade is a very powerful angle and points out many winners. Anyone who thinks every horses is out to win every race is nuts. Just look at any random DRF and tell me how so many horses suddenly improve by 5-10-20 lenghts in two weeks? If they ran thier race every race, all you would have to do is use the past running line at today's distance and hammer out a fortune.

[the_fat_man]

Speed / fade is a very powerful angle and points out many winners. Anyone who thinks every horses is out to win every race is nuts. Just look at any random DRF and tell me how so many horses suddenly improve by 5-10-20 lenghts in two weeks? If they ran thier race every race, all you would have to do is use the past running line at today's distance and hammer out a fortune.

While there are some trainers that are good at manipulating their horses, even the most limited stint on the backstretch quickly makes evident that a whole lot of things have to go right for a horse to win AND they usually don't. How many times have you bet a horse that was much the best but didn't win cause it got into trouble or got the wrong pace setup or was screwed cause something unexpected happened in the race.
How many of these situations appear as if THE TRAINER IS GIVING IT A RACE. Let's face it, Joe BLow wants to darken the form of his horse so he can score but he doesn't want to make it too obvious cause he'll have to answer to the stewards. So, if you're out there looking at charts for speed/ fade angles, or late runs, good luck.



I think the only way to handle this issue is to watch the races closely and learn the habits of the local horses. Which means watching races and following the locals for quite a while (at least a few months). Races taken individually are not quite representative/comprehensive.
Learn to appreciate race setups and how events in a race can make it impossible for a horse in a certain position to win. These needn't be monumental events. It's incredible how little things in a race can throw a horse off his best effort. A horse has a particular comfort zone; when thrown off even a little, it won't perform as well.

And once you get familiar with the styles of the local(s horses)
you'll have an advantage
cause
you'll see things others won't.

Then again, this will require MUCHO WORK

so off to chart perusing we go

[Overlay]

While there are some trainers that are good at manipulating their horses, even the most limited stint on the backstretch quickly makes evident that a whole lot of things have to go right for a horse to win AND they usually don't.

I'm not saying that races aren't used for conditioning purposes. But to me your comment points up that if a trainer has a horse in a spot where it figures to be competitive for the win based on known form, he wouldn't be likely to forego that opportunity for a possible objective down the road when any number of the "things" you referred to that are working for the horse today might no longer be so favorable. I also think it's useful in that regard to view the horse's chances in any particular race in terms of probabilities rather than saying that the horse is either definitely going to win or definitely not going to win, depending on the trainer's intentions.