Spilling My Knowledge

[StartedAt18]

I want to know what works for you? Any situation that you see on the simulcast screen or on the racing form that works quite often.
-I'm going to rant about my knowledge

First off I have my own system on winning percentages.
0+2+2+4+4+6+6+8
Fav. 32%
2nd. 24%
3rd. 18%
4th. 12%
5th. 8%
6th. 4%
7th. 2%
8+ 0%
--------
100%

If the favorite is 5/2 or higher, do not bet him unless there are 10+ horses in the field. Rarely do you see a favorite paying off $7.00 or $8.00 to win.

The favorite gets third only 15% of the time, don't waste your time putting him third unless you have a 5th choice of higher on top to start of a trifecta or superfecta.

A trick to the game is knowing when the favorite is going to win. If the favorite is even money or less? There is about a 70% chance he will be 1st or second. If he looks good in the book, bet an exacta, or a pick 3, if he doesn't? Forget about it. One thing I look for is when there is a huge favorite in the race 3/5 and there is a 3 to 1 and a 5 to 1 in the race and everyone else is over 10 to 1. I bet $20 pers Favorite with / 2nd, 3rd and I come out ahead quite often. But you have to know when to put yourself in that position. This method works all day.


*Pick 3's*
-When a long shot wins, put the two favorites on the second leg of your pick three. You will see that a long show is always followed by a favorite, even in an exacta. Do you ever notice when the last leg of a pick three is paying $275 on a $1 ticket and the 2nd lowest pick 3 is paying $845? I feel sorry for whoever started the pick 3 with that long shot. Most pick 3's are chalk or end up paying nothing because the chalk wins the last leg. The only time they pay anything is when the first 2 favorites do not win 1 out the 3 legs in the pick 3. I think pick threes are useless unless you are spending less then $15 on a $1 ticket. Now if it's breeders cup day, or any of the tracks listed below? You will get paid!

-After the favorite comes the long shot?
Pretty interesting here.. You really need to notice this next time you go to the track. After that 20/1 wins a race, you will see that the race after or before had an even money or less. I can give you an example. 2005 Kentucky Oaks, Jerry Bailey wins with "Summerly" I believe the horse was 9/2, for the Oaks/Derby double, Giacamo wins at 50 to 1
2006 Lemons Forever 42 to 1 wins the first leg of the oaks? Derby Double? Favorite.. Barbaro.

-These Tracks are a different type of animal. Good Luck if you want to win!
Churchill Downs, Turfway Park, Prarie Meadows, Woodbine, Kentucky Downs, Colonial Downs

-Night Tracks? They are all about starting the front running favorite last and having him close for 3rd or 2nd. Cheap, inconsistant horses that will never make over 30 grand in their life, don't waste your money.


-This works
Horses that show early speed and are shortening the distance, you need to get all over them. Especially! Especially! if you are in a 7 furlong race. First thing that you do is look for a horse that has ran 1/16 and started the race in the lead. You will make some bucks, let me just tell you. A guy that hit the Monarchos kentucky derby superfecta for $3.00 told me that. It works. For a 6F race, look for a horse that shows speed in a 7 furlong race. For races that are 1Mile, look for a horse that's ran 1 1/4

-Don't over spend on a race. Pick 1! just 1 horse on top and not 2,3 or 4. If you're going to play a tri, look at the program and elminate those 15, 45, 20 to ones that should be in the race. It's a waste or money and a horrific return if you try to cover your bet all the time.

Other Tips
-Every 5lbs off a horse = to a 1 second difference in his time.
-If you bet every race, you will lose. Any system that you try will fail in the end. Leave when you're on top, or after a bad beat.
-A 5 or 6 year old horse going on against younger competition, you have to put him in your exacta or trifecta.
-Breeding is only for first time starters or first time at a distance.
-You just lost at the wire? Very bad beat, what do you do? Take a break! You have to let your emotions chill. If you can't chill out, you really need to leave or you are setting yourself up for failure.


For The Chalk Players
-Big deal, you hit a lot of races, but you'll never win in the end. You can continue to play Favorite with/2nd,3rd4/4567 You'll hit often because Favorite / 2nd Favorite exactas accounts for 10% of all exacta's. Big deal, your return for a $1 ticket will be between $18-$55 Betting the favorite will cause you to lose at a slow and painful rate. Oh yea.. I keep hitting all these racest, but I'm not winning. lol


Why is it that.... Your last bet is always your smartest bet of the day? I know for sure you last bet isn't some superfecta at lonestar or a tri at belmont. It's a win, place or an exacta bet. But why your last bet always your best bet of the day? It's the bet you take your time on, you concentrate, you actually go and sit down and study the race... instead of standing up all day. You skip 2 races at Calder and 1 at Pimlico to find this smart bet. Lol You know you have no more money to play with... this is your last hope. Whelp.. if everybody was in this state of mind when the doors opened, you would walk out the door a winner more often.

Don't play every race, pick your spots, know when to leave and when to take a break.


Ok I think I'm done. I'm sure I left stuff out but that's what I know. I use statistics to make my bets, that's bout it.

I'm looking to learn something new from this website.

[kenwoodallpromos]

According to your % chart, the fav wins 32% of the time- the 3rd, 4th, and 5th fav win a combined 38%.
So if I have the fav at say 3-5 odds, and the 3rd at 6-1, the 4th at 10-1, the 5th at 12-1, is betting $2 on all 3 a good play?

[Turntime]

Kenwoodallpromos:

It's a bad play if that's your only criteria. It's a reasonable play if you think the favorite is vulnerable.

[Jake]

*Pick 3's*
-When a long shot wins, put the two favorites on the second leg of your pick three. You will see that a long show is always followed by a favorite, even in an exacta. Do you ever notice when the last leg of a pick three is paying $275 on a $1 ticket and the 2nd lowest pick 3 is paying $845? I feel sorry for whoever started the pick 3 with that long shot. Most pick 3's are chalk or end up paying nothing because the chalk wins the last leg. The only time they pay anything is when the first 2 favorites do not win 1 out the 3 legs in the pick 3. I think pick threes are useless unless you are spending less then $15 on a $1 ticket. Now if it's breeders cup day, or any of the tracks listed below? You will get paid!

-After the favorite comes the long shot?
Pretty interesting here.. You really need to notice this next time you go to the track. After that 20/1 wins a race, you will see that the race after or before had an even money or less. I can give you an example. 2005 Kentucky Oaks, Jerry Bailey wins with "Summerly" I believe the horse was 9/2, for the Oaks/Derby double, Giacamo wins at 50 to 1
2006 Lemons Forever 42 to 1 wins the first leg of the oaks? Derby Double? Favorite.. Barbaro.



The probabilities favor low odds horses over high odds horses, but they are not conditional from race to race. A short price horse is not more or less likely to win just because a longshot won the prior race, whether this is a win contender or a Pk3 contender. I play longshots with favorites in both 2nd and 3rd legs unless they are bad favorites; I'm naturally trying to catch a second or third longshot in the remaining legs, but it's always a case of looking at the probabilities to the expected odds. Additionally, if you have the legitimate favorites covered in the remaining legs of a live ticket, any scratched Pk 3 contenders remain in play.

Jake

[JackS]

Sat18- I think your a little delusional. All odds begin with the first bet. In the case of a 1/1, 20/1, 1/1 and assuming the odds are correct, your expectation of hitting the first two legs are 40-1. However if you win the first leg your 20/1 remains 20/1 and if you hit this 2nd leg, the true odds on the final leg is 1/1.
Before the first leg is run your expectation is 80/1 but the outcome of each leg effects your expectation of the next leg so with each success your chances of winning improve. Win the first two legs and your chance with your 1/1 shot is fifty-fifty in the last leg.

[StartedAt18]

Check this out....

2nd race - Belmont Park - May 27, 2006
3 Wahran (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6497442&sap=HPR) Pablo Morales
16.60 - 6.20 - 2.70
3rd race - Belmont Park - May 27, 2006
6 Valid Notebook (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6816959&sap=HPR) Javier Castellano
- 4.20 - 2.30 - 2.10 -
4th race - Belmont Park - May 27, 2006
1 Run Red Run (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6813265&sap=HPR) Michael J. Luzzi
- 10.20 - 6.50 - 5.20
$2 Pick 33-6-1 (3 correct)258.50
Chalk wins the after long shot.




6th race - Belmont Park - May 27, 2006
4 Raceland (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6873831&sap=HPR) Norberto Arroyo, Jr.
- 16.40 - 7.70 - 4.60 -
7th race - Belmont Park - May 27, 2006
1 My Dynomite (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6829367&sap=HPR) Edgar S. Prado
3.10 - 2.20 - 2.10 -
8th race - Belmont Park - May 27, 2006
1 Honey Ryder (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6091874&sap=HPR) Garrett K. Gomez
- 4.80 - 3.50 - 2.50

There was no Pick 3 in the 6th race.




11th race - Calder Race Course - May 27, 2006
12 Heavenly Reward To (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6132624&sap=HPR) Abel Castellano, Jr.
20.00 - 8.40 - 4.80 -
12th race - Calder Race Course - May 27, 2006
8 Matchbook (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6877166&sap=HPR) Jeffrey Sanchez
6.00 - 2.80 - 2.40

Daily Double. Second Favorite wins 2nd Leg.





7th race - Delaware Park - May 27, 2006

2 Mood Indigo (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6538561&sap=HPR) Stewart Elliott
21.00 - 10.40 - 5.40
8th race - Delaware Park - May 27, 2006
7 Unbridled Belle (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6880710&sap=HPR) Ramon A. Dominguez
5.00 - 3.00 - 2.40
9th race - Delaware Park - May 27, 2006
9 Ruba Dub Dub (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6154421&sap=HPR) Mario G. Pino
10.00 - 5.60 - 3.40

Again.. chalk wins after long shot.
$2 Pick 3





3rd race - Hollywood Park - May 27, 2006
4 Genuine Talent (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=7146482&sap=HPR) Paul Atkinson
29.20 - 10.80 - 7.20 -
4th race - Hollywood Park - May 27, 2006
10 Bransfield (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6819074&sap=HPR) Victor Espinoza
6.80 - 3.80 - 3.00 -
5th race - Hollywood Park - May 27, 2006
2 Cascade Rain (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6803741&sap=HPR) Patrick A. Valenzuela
17.40 - 4.80 - 2.60
Espinoza wins with the favorite after the long shot.
$1 Pick 34-10-2 (3 correct)



573.302-4/7-9 (3 correct)476.60
9th race - Pimlico - May 27, 2006 12 Please the Crowd (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6539102&sap=HPR) Kyle Kaenel48.4022.0011.60
10th race - Pimlico - May 27, 2006

1 Dynamic Deputy (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6578591&sap=HPR) Luis Garcia3.202.202.60
11th race - Pimlico - May 27, 2006

5 A Firm Bridge (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6218045&sap=HPR) Jonathan Joyce9.406.004.00


There's that 3/5 after the long shot. It has worked every race BUT! Churchill because that's a totally different animal.





1st race - Louisiana Downs - May 27, 2006

1 De Sis (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=4963242&sap=HPR) Donnie J. Meche47.0013.007.40
2nd race - Louisiana Downs - May 27, 2006

1 Election Year (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6836034&sap=HPR) Jose L. Verenzuela9.803.603.20

D/D pays: $178.00 Jose Verenzuela was the 2nd Favorite in the race.






3rd race - Louisiana Downs - May 27, 2006
6 Halo Enclosed (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=4076290&sap=HPR) Lonnie Meche28.6015.2011.20
4th race - Louisiana Downs - May 27, 2006

2 Explosive Ball (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6874120&sap=HPR) Cody Meche9.804.803.00
5th race - Louisiana Downs - May 27, 2006
WOW! You think the pick 3 is going to be huge! 3rd favorite wins the second leg. Umm no..

5 I'm to Lucky (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6506923&sap=HPR) Donnie J. Meche3.802.202.10
Chalk wins the 3rd leg.
$2 Pick 36-2-5 (3 correct)441.00







7th race - Louisiana Downs - May 27, 2006
4 Saucey Tiger (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6471046&sap=HPR) Jose Riquelme22.406.603.808th race - Louisiana Downs - May 27, 2006
6 Plea for Lee (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6847853&sap=HPR) Carlos Gonzalez2.802.402.109th race - Louisiana Downs - May 27, 2006
3 Exploit Exposed (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6442331&sap=HPR) Tracy J. Hebert5.003.603.20
$2 Pick 34-6-3 (3 correct)234.00







This system didn't work but 4 times today. That was race 6 at Louisiana was followed by an 11/1 and first 3 races at churchill downs! That was crazy $16,000 Pick 3. But But.. the forth and 5th race was followed by CHALK! 14/1 / Chalk / Chalk only payed $2 Pick 34-2-9 (3 correct)106.00


I'm not crazy. I know this stuff man lol. Racing is fixed. Your best chance at winning is to handicap and bet to win to win, oh and getting the heck out of there when you're up. If you like a long shot and you know he has a great chance of winning.. play the pick three with him, but the favorite in the 2nd leg by himself or the third by himself, you almost can't fail. If you hit one, go home lol.

[Jake]

My mistake for answering your thread. I actually thought you were serious for a moment. I'm guessing that there's probably nothing new you can learn at this site. I think you have it all covered.

[ryesteve]

I use statistics to make my bets
If you really did, you wouldn't have typed 90% of what you did...

[Zman179]

I don't know about spilling your knowledge, but you've definitely lost your mind.

[Suff]

I don't know about spilling your knowledge, but you've definitely lost your mind.

In my experience , horse players by and large, are a very strange lot. This fellow is more the rule the exception.

I include myself in the rule catergory

[Koko]

I'm sorry waiter, but you've apparently mistaken our order. We asked for a plate of Knowledge not Ignorant Unsustantiated Bullshit.

[Tom]

Must be spring - the nuts are out! :sleeping:

[46zilzal]

this is why Will Shakespeare wrote the play "Much Ado About Nothing"

[Koko]

It's always nice to see the next generation of great detectives plying their trade.

[Tom]

Elementary, my dear Koko!
(Oh, Watson, the needle!)

[46zilzal]

I'm sorry waiter, but you've apparently mistaken our order. We asked for a plate of Knowledge not Ignorant Unsustantiated Bullshit.
There is NO one way to put on your socks. There is certainlly no ONE way to 'cap a horse race. I have seen many a little old lady make a killing just following names. There is NO LOGIC to that, yet for a certain few races it works. We have "quick picks" of random numbers and there are some people who do well there.

It's find to differ and substantiate YOUR take on the entire thing (back it up with the logic you use), but others do well the way they look at it and it is right to them.

NO RIGHT, NO WRONG, ONLY DIFFERENT.

[toetoe]

I admire the thread starter for laying it out there. The generalizations are hard to exploit, but he got the ball rolling. Let's try to whittle it down for him a bit.

Longshot in first leg: Bang him to win, for sure. Why have 40 or 50 going in a pick-three without pocketing some win dough? No one I know would parlay that money on the very next race, yet people have longshot money locked up in the serial bets all the time. Mid-priced horses give the best value, I think.

I'd like to hear strategies for The Grand Slam at Belmont. Some people on here apparently swear by it. Am I missing out on a good opportunity? By the way, Pinnacle do not offer it. :(

[PaceAdvantage]

NO RIGHT, NO WRONG, ONLY DIFFERENT.

Baloney. There are most certainly wrong ways. I should know. I've experienced many if not most of them....

[46zilzal]

Baloney. There are most certainly wrong ways. I should know. I've experienced many if not most of them....
re-phrase it: there are no rights no wrongs in methods that have proven to work sometimes, only different ones.

you missed the line about substantiating your point of view.

[BeatTheChalk]

Another Great posting. I, of course, could never type that many words in
a row - without a mistake :bang: :lol:

[Koko]

*Pick 3's*
-When a long shot wins, put the two favorites on the second leg of your pick three. You will see that a long show is always followed by a favorite, even in an exacta. .

You do have some remarkable knowledge that all of PA would love for you to share, StartedAt18. Specifically, I'm referring to your amazing technique for putting in Pick3 bets between the 1st and 2nd legs. You must show us how to place those bets after longshots win the 1st legs, I think that might help my ROI just a bit.

[dav4463]

The favorite wins about a third of all races so odds are the favorite will win one leg of the pick three. There are no conspiracies to put two longshots with chalk or one chalk at the end of a pick three. It just happens that way sometimes.

[StartedAt18]

I'm not trying to say I know everything. I'm just talking about patterns that I see everytime I go to the race track. You know.. when you like the #1 horse, you have to put 23 for second, cause that always comes in. Whenever an 11 wins, there's always a seven 2nd or in the money. The jockey who's putting all his into urging the horse at the stretch, that's the one that's going to win. The jockey next to him is urgin the horse with one hand and maintains the horse in 3rd gear. I never thought there would be this manny haters in this forum. I know I know.. when I go to the track there are people that want to convince me that their horse is going to win. If it wins, they scream and yell out "I'm the greatest" or something lol. I'm not trying to tell you how to play I'm just letting you know what works.






Today's Long Shots! It works once again.

1st race - Arlington Park - May 28, 2006
4 Don Salomon Eduardo E. Perez 68.20 21.20 5.60
2nd race - Arlington Park - May 28, 2006
4 Nine Chimes Shane Laviolette 8.40 3.60 2.80 2nd Favorite M/L
$2 Daily Double 4-4 254.80
3rd race - Arlington Park - May 28, 2006
3 Low Creek Rafael Mojica, Jr. 8.80 3.80 3.00 M/L Favorite
$1 Pick 3 4-4-3 (3 correct) 1,364.00

6th race - Arlington Park - May 28, 2006
2 High Pay Jose C. Ferrer 18.20 8.00 5.20
7th race - Arlington Park - May 28, 2006
3 Big Rushlet Christopher A. Emigh 12.20 4.00 2.40 3rd Fav M/L
8th race - Arlington Park - May 28, 2006
4 Chic Dancer Christopher A. Emigh 6.60 4.40 3.80 2nd Fav M/L
$1 Pick 3 2-3-1/2/3/4 (3 correct) 278.20


1st race - Belmont Park - May 28, 2006
7 Wonderful Gold Kent J. Desormeaux 37.60 15.00 7.30
2nd race - Belmont Park - May 28, 2006
1A Theatrical Glory Edgar S. Prado 3.10 2.90 2.10 Fav M/L

2nd race - Calder Race Course - May 28, 2006
2 Sizzlin Victory Roger Moore 19.40 7.00 3.60
3rd race - Calder Race Course - May 28, 2006
1 Dueling Sword Manuel Aguilar 7.60 4.40 3.60 *10 horse field* 3rd Choice
4th race - Calder Race Course - May 28, 2006
4 Aomi Carlos Olivero 5.40 3.20 2.60 M/L Fav.
$2 Pick 3 2-1-4 (3 correct) 338.60


7th race - Calder Race Course - May 28, 2006
6 Banda Victoria Abel Castellano, Jr. 25.00 9.80 5.40
8th race - Calder Race Course - May 28, 2006
3 Folk Festival (GB) Juan C. Leyva 12.60 6.20 2.10 2nd Fav M/L
9th race - Calder Race Course - May 28, 2006
1 Personal Prince Manoel R. Cruz 3.80 3.00 2.40 M/L Fav.


6th race - Philadelphia Park - May 28, 2006
6 Knock Again Joanne McDaid 21.80 7.60 4.60
7th race - Philadelphia Park - May 28, 2006
3 Inapinch Jorge I. Duarte, Jr. 6.00 4.60 3.20
8th race - Philadelphia Park - May 28, 2006
4 She's Fancy Free Anthony S. Black 4.20 3.20 2.40
$2 Pick 3 6-3-4 (3 correct) 157.40


5th race - Finger Lakes - May 28, 2006
4 Blast Off Michael A. Davila, Jr. 45.60 25.40 14.20
6th race - Finger Lakes - May 28, 2006
4 Haileys Hero Parker R. Buckley 4.70 2.50 2.60
7th race - Finger Lakes - May 28, 2006
2 Mighty Annie R. Jose David Osorio 2.80 2.60 2.40

6th race - Monmouth Park - May 28, 2006
7 Perfect Look Jorge F. Chavez 25.80 12.20 6.60
7th race - Monmouth Park - May 28, 2006
3 Unhitched Jose Lezcano 15.80 7.80 5.40 M/L Favorite!
8th race - Monmouth Park - May 28, 2006
5 Dreamabull Joe Bravo 4.80 3.40 2.80
$1 Pick 3 7-3-5 (3 correct) 232.20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


According to your % chart, the fav wins 32% of the time- the 3rd, 4th, and 5th fav win a combined 38%.
So if I have the fav at say 3-5 odds, and the 3rd at 6-1, the 4th at 10-1, the 5th at 12-1, is betting $2 on all 3 a good play?


A: In my opinion, it the favorite is 3-5, he's going to win at about 50% chance. I wouldn't waste my money betting the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6 choice unless there was a field of 10+ horse or if you have higher odds on the 4th and 5th choices. I wouldn't make the bet because your return would be like a $10 show bet on a second favorite. Not worth the risk.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

************
The probabilities favor low odds horses over high odds horses, but they are not conditional from race to race. A short price horse is not more or less likely to win just because a longshot won the prior race, whether this is a win contender or a Pk3 contender. I play longshots with favorites in both 2nd and 3rd legs unless they are bad favorites; I'm naturally trying to catch a second or third longshot in the remaining legs, but it's always a case of looking at the probabilities to the expected odds. Additionally, if you have the legitimate favorites covered in the remaining legs of a live ticket, any scratched Pk 3 contenders remain in play.

Jake



A:Trust me, you're going to waste your money more often than not if you continue to put long shots after the favorite. Granted.. you will hit that big one one day because of your style of play but the odds are not in your favorite for that to happen often. Believe me, I post what happens after a long shot wins everyday and I will get the same results. Next time you go to the track, just look at the pick 3 pay offs after the long shot has won a race. You will see that the favorite pays soooooooo much less than the second and third choice. It almost feels like it's fixed to happen that way. Now.. if the pick threes are all about the same, that favorite is not going to win, but more than likely he will win the 3rd leg. I'm talking about if there is a $100 or less difference in the $2 pick three pay offs with the 1st, 2nd and 3rd choice.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


*********
There is NO one way to put on your socks. There is certainlly no ONE way to 'cap a horse race. I have seen many a little old lady make a killing just following names. There is NO LOGIC to that, yet for a certain few races it works. We have "quick picks" of random numbers and there are some people who do well there.

It's find to differ and substantiate YOUR take on the entire thing (back it up with the logic you use), but others do well the way they look at it and it is right to them.

NO RIGHT, NO WRONG, ONLY DIFFERENT.
*********

A: I agree! I know some people that play their kids birthday, or the badge id number from work lol. Everybody plays a different way so that they can get their high off of horse racing. When their strategy wins, they show everybody! call up people, scream go crazy ya know. lol




Oh by the way.. I type 65 WPM that's why I type so much.


Pick 3 long shot.

Let's say I like the 5 horse 12 to 1 This is how I would play the pick 3.
That would cost me $9

5/Fav/1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
5/2nd/1st, 2nd, 3rd
5/3rd/1st, 2nd,


People that want to get high all day put more horses for the second and third leg just so they could feel good and hit the darn race lol. I used to be one of those people until I looked at equibase everyday and wrote down every race to see when the favorite got second and third in the trifecta. I've hit 30 trifectas in one day atleast 10 times. *yeah I used to stay at the track a good 7 hours and played every race!* After winning so many races and not seeing such a huge return, I tried to learn how to pick my spots. Ever since then I've been doing pretty good. Well anyway.. did the same thing with pick 3's that I did for tries and found out that they were really similar. If you want to hit a lot of pick three's just play 12/12/345 you will hit atleast 5 races by 5pm EST that is. If you do that every race you'll lose. If you know when 2 favorite are going to win consecutive races, then you'll win.

[JackS]

Sat18- You had to handicap to get your 12/1 in the first leg which is a very nice hit. Here's the question- Why wouldn't you handicap the next two legs rather than rely on the publics choice? If your choice is the same as theirs, so be it. But if you do not agree, why not play what you like at any price?
The theory that seems so simple to you now will steadly seperate you from your money.
To prove to yourself that you can or can't , you will have to pick the longshot and the favorites that will follow. Most of us here at PA do not believe you will be able to do this. Try it on paper for a week and I think you might agree that you actually saved money by not playing into the parimutuals.
Of course if you dissagree, you can post a weeks worth of longshot/fav/fav everyday for all to see, but also remember, these picks MUST be posted prior to the running of each race.

[StartedAt18]

Everyone was saying it was crap that the favorite always wins after a long shot. I was showing the stats to people to show that it does win after the long shot. If the long shot is 20 to 1 or over, the favorite will when the 2nd leg for sure! I'm not saying I hit all those races, I haven't been to the track all week. If I liked a long shot? I play to Win & Show, then I waste 9 bucks on the pick 3. I'm just saying.. next time you like a long shot, play the pick 3 with the favorite, it works, it always does.


Why wouldn't you handicap the next two legs rather than rely on the publics choice? If your choice is the same as theirs, so be it. But if you do not agree, why not play what you like at any price?

If I like a long shot, it's because I handicapped the race. I don't guess that a long shot is going to win any race that I am betting. I focus my money on Win only, and if the horse is over 5 to 1 then I also bet Win and Show. I see what you are saying but when something works, you shouldn't change it. When you do change it, that's when you shouldn't have changed it, so why change it anyway? Either way, there is still a chance of losing and I can accept that so I do it anyways.

This whole Thread has been about patterns in horse racing. I don't know if I'm the only one that sees these things or people just don't want to admit that there are patterns. I wonder if people think that some of these races aren't fixed. I remember when Prado was at Pimlico, he won on the 6 horse and as he was leaving the winner circle, he took out a fat wad of 100's and paid a guy for making a bet for him. Lol. Oh and the article about churchill downs last year that talked about how they would clip the noses of the favorites so that it would mess up their breathing during a race, and they would finish out of the money. - Oh my favorite, 2000 arkansa derby I believe, the 10 horse was 50 to 1, the jockey lifts his whip up in the air and down falls the little black box lol. Ok I'm done, that's enough for me and this thread. The name of the game is "Sh** happens" bleep bleep bleep that's all folks.

[speedking]

[QUOTE=StartedAt18]I'm not trying to say I know everything. I'm just talking about patterns that I see everytime I go to the race track. You know.. when you like the #1 horse, you have to put 23 for second, cause that always comes in. Whenever an 11 wins, there's always a seven 2nd or in the money.

All these years and I never realized how simple it all is. Just wait until I like the 1 horse and place the 2 and 3 underneath, then when I like the 11, I can place the 7 second and third and tap out on the tri. How do you decide when to use the 1 or the 11? Does that come to you in a dream?

speedking

[speedking]

This whole Thread has been about patterns in horse racing. I don't know if I'm the only one that sees these things or people just don't want to admit that there are patterns. I wonder if people think that some of these races aren't fixed. I remember when Prado was at Pimlico, he won on the 6 horse and as he was leaving the winner circle, he took out a fat wad of 100's and paid a guy for making a bet for him. Lol.


Another startling handicapping nugget. Look for the jockeys with the big bulge in their silks. Must be those fat wads of 100's. Whoops, no pockets my friend. Don't think I'll be looking THAT closely.

Fixed races, numerology, jockeys doing business in the winners circle and riding with " fat wads of 100's". This is getting better all the time. :D

speedking

[DanG]

On behalf of Florida I would like to apologize for allowing one of our patients internet access…

Signed;

Started riding the “short-bus” at 18:lol:

[ryesteve]

Everyone was saying it was crap that the favorite always wins after a long shot. I was showing the stats to people to show that it does win after the long shot.
You're not showing stats, you're showing selected anecdotes, some of which don't even prove your point (ie the 2nd ML fav isn't the favorite)

Here is a stat. Let's see if you can tell the difference. At the Belmont Spring meet, the average win price so far has been $11.85. There have been 22 winners who paid $20 or more (not counting two who won the last race of the day). The average win price of the winners in the races following those 22 $20 winners has been $13.73. See? Not the favorites... and the payouts are even higher than the norm.

[Jake]

Steve,

You're a glutton for punishment! Numbers only confuse this guy. Once had a dog like him. He kept chasing park cars until one finally ran over him.

[Jake]

Steve,

You're a glutton for punishment! Numbers only confuse this guy. Once had a dog like him. He kept chasing park cars until one finally ran over him.


Allow me to apologize for these remarks. They are personally unkind, and that wasn't my intention. Short odds horses are more likely to win after either a longshot or short price wins, as a natural function of their odds. Races are independent events. You don't need to resort to numerology or the old "turn" theory to understand relative probability. Short odds horses aare suppose to win more often than long odds horse. This is so elementary that it's hard to believe that you actually play the races. If I didn't know better, I would think that this is Tom in disguise "puking" everyone.

[headhawg]

If I didn't know better, I would think that this is Tom in disguise "puking" everyone.I hope you meant "punking". 'Cuz if he's "puking everyone"...well that's just plain gross.

[Jake]

I hope you meant "punking". 'Cuz if he's "puking everyone"...well that's just plain gross.

Actually, I did mean punking, but give the direction of this thread, I may be correct with my original remarks. Thanks for the head's up.