The advent of Beyer figures

[Claim digger]

I have read many a complaint from speed handicappers that the publication of Beyer figures in the DRF dropped the prices on their high speed figure horses and made it more difficult to make money. If that is really the case then it appears to me that the pubication of the figures would correspond with a decline in the average payoff as handicappers have access to more information at a lower cost.

My question is does anyone know of any research done to determine if indeed the publication of the Beyer figures has led to lower payoffs for winner, or an increase in winning favorites. I would expect that there would be a "improvement" in handicapping around 1992 and a decline in the number of high paying winners after that date.

"Eat your betting money, but don't bet your eatin' money"

[Jaguar]

Claim Digger,

Racing prices stay at a win/loss equilibrium, and have done so since the 1930's. That is to say, that favorites have continued to win at a 32-36% rate based on a national average.

The reasons for this are two-fold.

First, most races fall into the claiming category. As I learned from reading the late, great handicapper, Ray Taulbot, claimers are usually sore from being raced to often. Taulbot estimated that in any given claiming race, 30%- or more- of the entries are physically inhibited to one degree or another.

This means that in most claiming events there is a high degree of unpredictability. This theory is easily borne out by analyzing claiming races with a good A. I. program which rates the consistency of individual horses, and which looks for patterns among the entries in a given race.

My studies(based on the computer program I use) rate the
statistical stability and predictability of most claiming races at between 47-55%. This means that if I were to bet these races, I would get a shellacking, which is why I don't bet on claimers.

In contrast, I find that allowance races fall into the 70-77% range of predictability. (Of course, within that context, the program will occasionally find a stickout- a key horse- which is my "Damn the torpedoes, Gridley, full speed ahead!" signal. {Admiral Farragut at Mobile Bay}.

Second, the dissemination of information concerning horses past performances- years ago via the "Telly"- or "Telegraph", as the DRF used to becalled- and nowadays via the internet, picks services, etc.- has served to educate everyone simultaneously and to the same extent.

In other words, "We don't got an edge."

Since racing is just a spot game(wait for the best horse in the



most predictable race) we only bet when we have the best of it, when we know we're going to win, and we never bet below even money.

Because, after all is said and done, a horse player's profit comes from being able to step up after a loss, and from being able to play the exotics when the exactas are over $13, and the triples are over $120. ----If a horse player doesn't follow these guidelines he's going to have a miserable ride home thinking about how he's going to explain where the rent money went.

This is the greatest game in the world, but it's a money game, not a horse game or a betting game.

I wish someone had explained all this to me years ago. Sadly, I had to figure it out the hardway, many thousands of hard-earned dollars later.

To quote a sharp handicapper and darned good programmer, Curtis Martin: "As long as the odds are set by gamblers, and not by handicappers, the best handicappers will get the money."


All the best,

Jaguar