Bernardini not running in Belmont

[bigmack]

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown06/news/story?id=2456866

[cj]

It is a shame really. Here is a horse that could win 2/3s of the Triple Crown, probably without breaking a sweat, and they pass. Makes it a better wagering event I guess.

[bigmack]

. Here is a horse that could win 2/3s of the Triple Crown, probably without breaking a sweat

In relation to his numbers or the field he'd face? I haven't done numbers from the Preakness. Were his strong?

by the by...
I knew little of Casteau, Bel - but a Google Earth zooms on what appears to be a charming town. How did Allied Command Op's choose that locale?

[JustRalph]

I knew little of Casteau, Bel - but a Google Earth zooms on what appears to be a charming town. How did Allied Command Op's choose that locale?

I had orders to that area at one time. I was approached by several senior NCO's that told me the area was picked after WWII because it had the best "Houses" if you get my drift. They practically were drawing me a map of the "stars" homes when my orders got canceled.

[JustRalph]

Damn that edit timeout.

I think Bernardini being out may make for a serious betting opportunity. I wonder what trainers are now considering entering some new up and comers?

[toetoe]

I'm praying for a field of twelve. Bernardini will live to fight another day. Saratoga, maybe?

[Light]

No doubt Bernadini's connections were impacted by Barbaro's misfortune.

[PaceAdvantage]

No doubt Bernadini's connections were impacted by Barbaro's misfortune.

I'm not sure how that would play into their decision? Either the Belmont was in their plans, or it wasn't. I don't see how Barbaro's injury would alter such plans.

[toetoe]

You mean they were influenced, and now don't want to chance it? I disagree. He did run a pretty nice race, but I don't think it was so good that he must bounce. That Beyer seemed high to me. The oddball distance makes it hard to pinpoint. I just think 'Saint was staggering home, and third and fourth were nowhere. I think 'Saint is the one that needs a break.

[toetoe]

I'm with PA on this one, I think.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Which of those mentioned have the most wins under their belt? I seem to remember a few who have just a couple.

[Light]

I'm not sure how that would play into their decision? Either the Belmont was in their plans, or it wasn't. I don't see how Barbaro's injury would alter such plans.

There were no plans.After the Preakness win Bernadini was a maybe for the Belmont pending discussions with the owners.

[classhandicapper]

Passing could be a reflection on the declining value/prestige of winning the 12F Belmont these days.

There is so much emphasis on speed, breeders may put more value on the speedy miler types that can stretch out and get 9F-10F. They may be less interested in the more even paced stamina types that occasionally win the Belmont by default.

Passing could also be a reflection on the trend towards spacing races.

If you assume that Bernadini would have a better shot at the Haskell/Travers and ultimately the Breeder's Cup by giving him a break at some point in his campaign, this looks like a good time to do it.

I'm not so sure I agree that you have to space races the way trainers do these days (as long as you don't abuse them in the mornings), but that's the current thinking. Everybody wants a 5 race campaign with 3 peaks instead of a 10-12 race campaign with a few seconds, thirds, and wins etc....

If he was my horse, I'd run him. I think you have to strike while the iron is hot. Every time you pass a big race with a fit sharp horse you risk losing an opportunity because of a subsequent injury during training. Furthermore, no one has ever proven conclusively to me that spacing races produces more peaks. Even if it does, no one has proven that fewer races and slightly more peaks earns more money and increases the probability of a major victory relative to more starts and opportunties to both earn money and win a Grade 1. Plenty of peaking horses get bad trips or face other peaking horses and don't get the job done.

[Ron]

If he was my horse, I'd run him. I think you have to strike while the iron is hot. Every time you pass a big race with a fit sharp horse you risk losing an opportunity because of a subsequent injury during training.

Is he a fit sharp horse? I'm not sure that we know that for sure.

[Murph]

Seems to me the conditions of the Belmont wouldn't suit any runner making his 5th lifetime start. I expect his fine effort in the Preakness took it's toll and he'll need some more time to recover. Start thinking about how you like him against the older runners.

Murph

[JustRalph]

I think it is a good plan. lay him off now and wind him up in time for the Breeders cup. Makes sense.

[classhandicapper]

Seems to me the conditions of the Belmont wouldn't suit any runner making his 5th lifetime start. I expect his fine effort in the Preakness took it's toll and he'll need some more time to recover. Start thinking about how you like him against the older runners.

Murph

Does 12F suit any of today's horses? ;)

I used the like the way the Triple Crown horses were handled years ago. They ran in the TC series, then they got a nice vacation to gear back up for a late summer or fall campaign.

If he is healthy and sharp, it's a small risk to skip the race. If he gets hurt in training later this summer, they may have blown a chance to win another Classic Grade 1 (what looks like a weak one at that) and to say their horse won 2 of 3. I guess I'm questioning this whole time to recover theory. As long as the trainer doesn't work him to death between races (like Baffert for example), I think they can run more often - just like they used to in the past.

I guess if you have to skip one though, the 12F Belmont is the one.

[Valuist]

CH-

I agree. You've got a live horse, why not strike while the iron is hot? He missed the Derby, which is by far the most stressful of the 3 TC races.

Another thing: over the years it seems like horses who've been running in the TC races find it very hard to "dial it up" later in the year. They often fall behind the late developing 3YOs who come out of nowhere.

[toetoe]

I think without a limit of 14 or so, the Derby is the one to skip.

[Tom]

The Travers and BC will go farther to enhance stud fees than a Belmont devoid of any importance this year. I thinking after his light campaign, and big explosion in the Preakness, a rest would go far for this guy. Hey, big horses at three only have 6-7 races in them anymore - gotta save someting for later on.

[bpiets]

;) Looks like 'i' was right in 'stating' that each of the 'TRIPLE' would be won by a different 'nag'......But 'it's' a Shame that 'it' happened this way.....

[Ron]

;) Looks like 'i' was right in 'stating' that each of the 'TRIPLE' would be won by a different 'nag'......But 'it's' a Shame that 'it' happened this way.....

Pure genius.

[bpiets]

Pure genius.
:p Yup....but 'i' did think that Barbaro had a good chance and had both Both of the 'b' horses on top in 'my' tri's....only 'i' did not count on what happened....and lost a 'bundle'..... :bang:

[JPinMaryland]

speaking of stud fees...Do any of these races other than Ky derby really increase any stallions fee? It seems to me that once a horse gets to this stage (top 20 or 30 graded earnings) that his stud fees are going to be determined by two things: his pedigree and what he produces in his first several years at stud.

Neither of these the horse has much control over.

Perhaps the one who has the most to gain from winning the Preakness or Belmont is the horses sire?

[chrisg]

I'm not sure how that would play into their decision? Either the Belmont was in their plans, or it wasn't. I don't see how Barbaro's injury would alter such plans.

I wonder if they thought they were going to win the Preakness. I thought he would be no better than 2nd, but no worse than 3rd. What surprised me is that they didn't throw the Godolphin colors on him.

I wouldn't think they'd miss an opportunity like that to add another GI to the Godolphin collection, but they did.

[Steve 'StatMan']

If they were patient enough to wait with him, and skip the KY Derby, they're going to be patient enough to skip the Belmont Stakes. Got a lot of classics this summer and fall at more appropriate and meaningful distances. With the others left by the wayside, 3yo Of The Year honors could be in the future.

[kenwoodallpromos]

First time I ever heard a scratched nose keeping a horse out of a TC race!!LOL!!
I guess scanning the graded stakes horse may be getting commonplace.

[PaceAdvantage]

First time I ever heard a scratched nose keeping a horse out of a TC race!!LOL!!
I guess scanning the graded stakes horse may be getting commonplace.

?Que?