TMM's Fulcrum and The Preakness

[zazzle]

I don't want to be accused of calling a race perfectly after it's run, but I'm surprised that none of the TMM users on this board mentioned that Bernardini was the Fulcrum in the race, set at 110.3. And he was a fulcrum at a price, who was fresh, and won a grade 3 race without the whip!
Of course I was wishing for a Barbaro/ Bernardini exacta, but the saver exacta was 8/1347. BD had only one good PPf rating and the program considers it abberant, a good call. The program did make a bad call, stating the race was speed of speed, Diabolical, and when you took him out it went pressured, that seemed quite possible with Like Now and Diabolical in there.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm a tad confused. Have you turned back to more traditional methods of handicapping a horse race?

[46zilzal]

he didn't know it was a grade three, he just ran.

[thebeacondeacon]

I don't want to be accused of calling a race perfectly after it's run, but I'm surprised that none of the TMM users on this board mentioned that Bernardini was the Fulcrum in the race, set at 110.3. And he was a fulcrum at a price, who was fresh, and won a grade 3 race without the whip!
Of course I was wishing for a Barbaro/ Bernardini exacta, but the saver exacta was 8/1347. BD had only one good PPf rating and the program considers it abberant, a good call. The program did make a bad call, stating the race was speed of speed, Diabolical, and when you took him out it went pressured, that seemed quite possible with Like Now and Diabolical in there.

It is far fetched to say that TMM's "Speed of Speed" pace position analysis of the Preakness was a "bad call", when the circumstance of Barbaro's accident took three of the early horses out of their running styles.

I cannot speak for any other TMM handicappers. However, Bernardini appeared to be a positive fulcrum horse due to his running style and odds, even though his PPF was substantially below that of the top horses. This should have earned him an underneath position in most Master Magician exotic structures. Again, Barbaro's accident appears to have been the proximate cause of Bernardini finishing on top, even though his record shows him to be a very talented, fast track horse.

And no...we cannot say, at this point, that this hypothesis will be either proven or disproven in the Belmont.


thebeacondeacon

[zazzle]

PA I orginally stated that I use two data files and four programs, but the horary and dowsing complimented my work.

[zazzle]

Bernardini's PPF after Barbaro's 5 is in a cluster of four horses 1 1 0 0
One of the 4 is a need to lead and 2 of the four have possible issues meeting the fulcrum.
BD's PPF is aberrant, if you take the abberancy off he is a 6 but his closest to that is a -2. The 6 in which he ran uncontested shouldn't be used, unless he's 10/1 or more.

[thebeacondeacon]

Bernardini's PPF after Barbaro's 5 is in a cluster of four horses 1 1 0 0
One of the 4 is a need to lead and 2 of the four have possible issues meeting the fulcrum.
BD's PPF is aberrant, if you take the abberancy off he is a 6 but his closest to that is a -2. The 6 in which he ran uncontested shouldn't be used, unless he's 10/1 or more.

I gave Brother Derek his 6 PPF because of his form angles and the fact that he was reversing Barbaro. Also, his PPF trend seemed to improve with added distance. Not that he was bettable at 3-1, but he clearly appeared to be the best horse in the race, on paper.

Unfortunately, he ran up behind the stricken Barbaro and had to be taken back and around to the outside. So, we will never know what he could have done in the Preakness, had he been able to make the lead early.


thebeacondeacon

[toetoe]

TMM --- The Master Magician? :confused:

[RXB]

Bernardini is a monster.

Brother Derek doesn't even have dreams of running a race like that.

[zazzle]

Yes The Master Magician

[Tom]

Bernardini is a monster.

Brother Derek doesn't even have dreams of running a race like that.

Must be halloween came early -

1. Sinister Minister - a MONSTER!
2. Barbaro - a MONSTER!
3. Bernadini - a MONSTER!

If only we knew who the next monster was going to be before the race.
There doesn't seem be a second win for the monsters this year.

[headhawg]

Must be halloween came early -

1. Sinister Minister - a MONSTER!
2. Barbaro - a MONSTER!
3. Bernadini - a MONSTER!

If only we knew who the next monster was going to be before the race.
There doesn't seem be a second win for the monsters this year. :lol:

Good thing there are an unlimited number of handicapping bandwagons to jump on otherwise I don't know what some people would do with themselves.

[RXB]

I never made any claims about Sinister Minister being a monster. In fact, I was rather outspoken against his Derby chances. Barbaro ran a better race in the KD than I expected and was definitely a very good horse, but I wasn't 100% sold.

With Bernardini, you can officially put me on the books that he is a rare individual. He is a bred to be a champion, he is one of the finest looking animals that you're going to lay eyes on, and he just blew the Preakness field away in his 4th lifetime start, on the heels of wiping out his competition with utter disdain in his two previous races.

Of course, there's no guarantee (these days, especially) that a horse will stay sound, which is unfortunate. But if Bernardini stays sound, I think he will be very tough.

[garyoz]

Bernardini is a monster.



http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown06/news/story?id=2456866

The Monster skips the Belmont....hope he makes the Travers, a great bet against. He'll probably duck that too and end up in the Pa Derby. He has his black type.

BTW, I'm not convinced that TMM isn't a cult. But I think that has been stated before.

[The Hawk]

He can certainly go undefeated for the rest of his career...as long as in each race for the rest of his career the prohibitive favorite breaks down before they hit the first turn, and "the monster" goes on to enjoy a perfect stalking trip behind a three-way duel.

[toetoe]

I just bought a great game on the TMM site. It's called Dungeons And Horses. :D