My Official Preakness Analysis

[PaceAdvantage]

Let me start by saying that as I look at this race, the more I see question marks floating around in my head. I don't see this as a give away to Barbaro. I think Barbaro is going find the second leg of the Triple Crown a lot more difficult to win than the Derby.

Question marks: No workouts for Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint since the Derby?? Brother Derek threw a shoe in the Derby....did he injure his foot, and if so, how badly? Sweetnorthernsaint ran out of gas turning for home in the Derby despite an inside trip most of the way. The rail wasn't a terrible place to be Derby day. Yup, he had a bad start to his Derby and had to play a little catch-up early on, but then again, he was only 3.5 lengths behind the leaders after the first half mile, so how brutal was his trip, in reality? I'll give Sweetnorthernsaint one thing....his turn time was VERY fast, confirmed by his strong middle move into fast fractions. THAT was the brutal part of his trip.

Obviously, the key to the race is Barbaro. Duh! Undefeated, yes. Invincible? Hardly. No horse is invincible. Question marks surround this one as well. He's never run back quicker than 35 days, and now he's asked to run back in two weeks. I doubt this is going to be much of a problem, given who his trainer is....plus, unlike Brother Derek and SNS, Barbaro worked a quarter mile on Thursday.


By the numbers
Barbaro's Derby didn't come up as impressive as I would have thought on the numbers I use. That's the only race I rated him off of, and if he isn't dominant on those numbers, then I must have my concerns. Considering he just might be odds-on come post time, there's not much I can do with him. I am impressed by what he's accomplished, but I'm not impressed ENOUGH with the numbers in front of me to concede him the race and not wager against him. I think he will have a tougher time in the Preakness. Let's not forget, this horse's other two dirt races were CLOSE. He only won the Florida Derby by a half length, and prior to that, he only won the Holy Bull by three-quarters of a length. We've all seen horses run MONSTER races only to fall short next time out. Why is Barbaro immune? More question marks.....

I see a fairly contentious early pace. Not surprising given the fact that six of the nine in here are "Early" pace types. Like Now should get the lead, but I think Brother Derek sticks very close to him up front. Trainer Dan Hendricks is going to want to make sure BD gets back to the running style that brought home all those checks in California. Like Now won't get an easy lead, as I think Bernardini may mix it up near the front as well, so I am throwing Like Now out altogether....he just doesn't have the late numbers to survive an early battle at 9.5 furlongs.

I hope Sweetnorthernsaint won't try and be part of the early pace. I hope Kent Desormeaux does the right thing and sticks to Barbaro early, maybe 3 or 4 lengths off the pace. Despite Barbaro's impressive 24 and 1/5 final fraction of the Derby, I still believe SNS is the better closer given equal trips. I was very high on SNS going into the Derby, even though my official top pick in the Derby was Barbaro. Seeing the pace numbers as I currently do, and realizing in general what the tote-board will read for the Preakness, Sweetnorthernsaint seems like the right play at the right time.

As for bettable longshots, don't leave out Greeley's Legacy. Something about this horse's numbers impress me, even though looking at the raw past performances, there isn't much to cheer about. Did you see he worked HUGE last Sunday? Five furlongs in :58 and 3/5 at Belmont, best of 63 that day. Greeley's Legacy should benefit some from the expected contentious pace in the Preakness, and he has very good middle and late numbers. I rated him off the Lexington and the Gotham to get those numbers.

With all that said, I hope Barbaro wins. It's always awesome going to Belmont Park with a Triple Crown on the line, and I already have my tickets. If Barbaro is able to pull off the Derby-Preakness double, he will be a SUPERHORSE in my mind. Why? Because if he should win the Preakness, there is absolutely no way in hell, barring the freaky unforeseen, that he loses the Belmont.....absolutely no way....

To me, the Preakness, and NOT the Belmont, will be Barbaro's "Test of the Champion"

Official Preakness Selections:

Sweetnorthernsaint
Barbaro
Greeley's Legacy
Brother Derek

[46zilzal]

probably won't last but, Ramon Dominguez could do another Scrappy T on Diabolcal for the early lead with Brother Derek right off him, Barbaro and Bernardini settling in. Sweetnorthensaint is just too late unless this pace falls apart.

A close sustained presser gets this one: Brother, Bernardini, Barbaro

[KingChas]

Question marks: No workouts for Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint since the Derby?? Brother Derek threw a shoe in the Derby....did he injure his foot, and if so, how badly? Sweetnorthernsaint ran out of gas turning for home in the Derby despite an inside trip most of the way.


PA,I can't bet against Barbaro,But I can't bet on Barbaro,With the question marks on the two above as you stated.The only bet I will have is if you run this race on "PA Downs".Then it's an all or nothing option for me on Barbaro.
I will bet the undercard but I can't bet this race. :blush:

Best Preakness Bet For Me..........$2 souvenier ticket on Barbaro
Quite the hedger-HUH- :rolleyes:
Good Luck to all kick (.) ! :D

[JPinMaryland]

Two comments for Pace:

1) How can you leave out Like Now? Did you see the Lexington? He is dead game horse and will not quit in the lane. He may get outrun by the other ones but he will not quit.

I think you are too much into raw numbers. These horses are not running vs. a clock they are running against other horses. It's a funny thing, you can find a horse who's numbers are slightly less than another horse but put them on the same track, under the same pace, the same weather and they seem to be about the same. For people who are obsessed with numbers, you are liable to take a minute variation in a single variable and turn this into a must play or must toss proposition.

What is wrong w/ his (Like NOw's) Gotham? You are so big on SNS and Like NOw beat him there didnt he? He also beat the speed horse Keyed Entry at a distance more favorable to K.E. who obviously couldnt handle 10f at CD. Its not about numbers, Like NOw was holding off THREE other horses in the Gotham.

in the Lex. he was fighting Bear Character for what? Half a mile? They get into the stretch and he starts exchanging bumps with him and finally beat him to the finish. Meanwhile Showin Up has been coasting behind these two and finally creeps up for the win, much easier race for him. ALso cut into LikeNow's path a little, trapping him on the rail in the final strides.


2) quote: " I still believe SNS is the better closer given equal trips..."

Yeah but doesnt it concern you that this horse does not appear he wants to pass other horses in the stretch? Showing Up was fading in the stretch and SNS sort of just hung there...

Maybe you see something different here. Dead rail? Be interested in that.

Why am I telling you this? Pace, last time out you had the Karma for the derby. You had the information analysis part down, just didnt get to the acting on the intelligence part. maybe you still got it?

Look it's way past my bedtime but I've got a little time tomorrow morning to check this thread out before I head to Pimlico. Maybe in that time you will post the words of wisdom I need. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

I think you are too much into raw numbers.

I assure you, that isn't the case.

Maybe you see something different here. Dead rail? Be interested in that.

From what I can tell and from what others have said, the rail was an ok place to be Derby day....

SNS made an incredibly taxing middle move into fast internal fractions. His turn time in the Derby was the fastest turn time he has ever run. As the little guy stated in another thread, it's no wonder he had little left in the stretch. I'm willing to give him another chance.

[JPinMaryland]

Dont destroy the Karma, do you have any thoughts of a more....insightful nature? What do you pick up on Diabolical or the freak Bernardini? More interested in thoughts on the previous post, however. :jump:

[the_fat_man]

Now, we're finally getting into it.

After the events of the derby, I really don't want SNS or BD. I didn't want either going into the derby and they really did nothing to change my mind.
Neither can beat Barbaro. In fact, I won't even use them in my exacta (for 2nd)
Barabaro is the kind of horse that will always be in position to get a perfect trip. He has essentially the same setup he did in the derby, with less horses. SNS runs the same way; but he's not as good as the former and has a less than patient jock.

There are some interesting horses in the Preakness.

1) I think it's a mistake to discount Like Now. He beat SNS in the Gotham (whatever excuses the latter might've had) and he was dead game in the Lexington against Showing Up. Showing Up, IMO, probably put in the 2nd best effort in the derby and would be a clear 2nd choice if entered in the Preakness.

Like Now has the rail and he's proven to be game. Why can't he hold for 2nd?

2) Fired up the replay and was impressed by Bernardini's effort in the Withers. The horse accelerated nicely and finished in very good stride (jock lost the whip). For those who actually watch races and notice this kind of thing, let me repeat myself: I LOVED HIS STRIDE. He appears to potentially be a nice horse. Why does BD or SNS figure to get a better trip. More bluntly: why are they better? Bernardini can sit behind the speed (Like Now and/or Diabolical) and make the same move as SNS and Barbaro.

3) I needed SNS and Greeley's Legacy for a score in the Gotham. He ran well but I didn't like his trip. I expected him to be behind AOT, not ahead of him on the backside. Then he's too close, IMO, in the Lexington, and tries to make that ridiculous-wide-move-into-a-hot-pace and flattens out in the stretch in a race where they didn't really come back. This is a ONE RUN HORSE. If GL is with or immediately behind Barabaro, he's too close. He needs to sit just behind the stalkers and make ONE MOVE. He can't move early. He has to move after the stalkers. He can be second with a decent ride.


The 3 most impressive efforts to this point (no particular order) have been:

Barbaro's derby
SM's Bluegrass
Strong Contender's Bluegrass

Someone catch me up with Strong Contender. Why is he not in the Preakness?

[JackS]

My ranking 1. SNS
2.Bernardini
3. Bro Derek
4.Like Now
5.Greeleys Legacy
6.Barbaro
I like to warn everyone that this looks an awful lot alike my Derby rankings with Bernardini replacing Showing Up.
Not sure what I'm going to do with these numbers yet except that I won't be playing Barbaro on top.
If Barbaro wins, so be it. I was wrong in the Derby and could easily be wrong here.

[Tom]

I originally like Like Now a LOT.
But, looking back at the KEE race, I have to second guess myself - no KEE race is a reliable measure of anything, IMHO. It is an enigma track and nobody makes good numbers for it consistently (no offense to three really great figure makers) but I see far more horses not run back to KEE numbers than run to them, andI can't recall any who improve on the pace numbers. Don't know why, unless the have a wacked out timer, gate palcement isses, whatever - I will not use a KEE paceline at any track other than KEE. Thak GOD they are digging up that mystery dirt!

But, SNS had gate problems AGAIN today - got turned away when his van arrived! First, they screw up the PP draw, not they screw up getting the horses on track! I just hope all the horses get out of Pimlico alive!:eek:

But this has to be a bad opmen for SNS, plus I thought he looked horrible getting off the van - no expert, but he looked different enough to make me take notice. That leaves Broher D as my pick - with the 9 underneath in a few, on top one for a flyer. If he sits close and mkaes a run, he has a shot - if he goes out, a duel with the 1 will kill him.
I give Barbaro a good shot to win this, but at the odds, he can't be used on top but Iwill back wheel him to place.

This race is going in the "Have a fun day" catagory - no serious money on it, pure entertainment witha few shots for the moon.

The undercard, however.......taking off the rubber band.

Brother Derek2U on top:D

[LemonSoupKid]

In the interest of time and space (I do a whole write-up as well), I'll post my selections and then my wagering strategy:

7 Sweetnorthernsaint

6 Barbaro

5 Brother Derek

1 Like Now

4 Greeley's Legacy
8 Bernardini

Win Sweetnorthernsaint

Trifectas 7-6-5, 7-5-6, 5-6-7, 5-7-6

A boatload to show on the Dr. Z recommendation (undefeated this year, wins every year, call me with 5 minutes to post and I’ll tell you who to drop the hundreds on)

And … let’s try some $1 superfectas:



7-6-5-1 4-7-6-5

7-6-5-8 4-6-7-1

7-4-6-5 4-5-6-7

5-6-7-1

5-4-7-6

Lemon Soup Kid

ps - I know some are going to try and call BS on the Dr. Z thing. But it's the big money play for me. Unfortunately, I won't know until 5-10 minutes to post who I'll lay the money on. Maybe I can get someone to post for me ... good luck to all.

[Suff]

I have Barbaro by 10 lengths. Maybe 4 if one of the other mortals runs the race of his life.

This guy is old school. He'll take you on anywhere, any track, any surface.

Long, short, Grass, Wet, Fast...Doesn't matter. 6 wins, 5 different tracks.
When he wins the TC it'll be 8 wins, 7 different tracks, 6 different states, 2 different surfaces, and 3 different track conditions.

Enjoy boys.....we got our man. Barbaro in the 12th at Pimlico.

Bet the rent.

[Valuist]

The rail is definitely the place to be at Pimlico today. Some of the outer drawn horses (SNS, Bernadini) could be in for rough trips against the bias.

[depalma13]

SNS at 5-1 or higher he is a strong play. Getting 9-1 on him is a pure gift.

[Bruddah]

of SNS in the Kentucky Dereby (4:10 p.m. cst) The supposed bump he received, which took him out of his race, coming out of the gate, was a farce. If people are using this as his "tough trip" excuse in the Derby, this horse will definitely finish up the track in the Preakness. That's all it was, an excuse. I have seen hobby horses at Krogers receive tougher trips. (JMHO) :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

of SNS in the Kentucky Dereby (4:10 p.m. cst) The supposed bump he received, which took him out of his race, coming out of the gate, was a farce. If people are using this as his "tough trip" excuse in the Derby, this horse will definitely finish up the track in the Preakness. That's all it was, an excuse. I have seen hobby horses at Krogers receive tougher trips. (JMHO) :lol:

I didn't mention a bump anywhere in my analysis. I talked about exactly why I thought he had a tough trip. He made a tremendous move into hot internal fractions in the middle of the race. This was forced by his rough start, and Kent D. thinking he had to get up there at that point in the race.

The bump in and of itself was nothing. It was his slow start, lack of position, and Kent D. using him way too much in the middle of the race that made his trip tough.

[cj]

Any reason he wasn't checked out thoroughly by the vet after breaking through the gate? Maryland didn't help out racing any this weekend.

[wonatthewire1]

Seemed as though they were getting him back to the gate without hurrying. But I did notice that his mane was up while getting reloaded (upset?). But you're absolutely right, no reason not to have the vet check him over before the start.

[Two Bucks To Win]

Any reason he wasn't checked out thoroughly by the vet after breaking through the gate? Maryland didn't help out racing any this weekend.

It never does. Maryland racing is a joke and now I know why I would only bet 2 days a year on anything running there.

Very sad situation even though I won some money... I would rather lose and have them all come back safely then to watch something like that.

[WINMANWIN]

When you think about it, When a horse breaks thru the gate even In bottom level claiming races the Vet usually gives a LOOK-OVER. I doubt Magna wanted to REFUND MILLIONS. :blush: Another Blemish for the game. :ThmbDown:

[chickenhead]

Agree...doubt it would have made any difference, but there is a reason why they have those procedures, they should always get followed.

[Two Bucks To Win]

If anyone is watching TVG now they were discussing some curious events regarding Barbaro in the post parade before the race. Barbaro bucking like something in one of his rear legs was hurting or irritating him and Prado looking back at both rear legs.

[JackS]

Two Bucks- Interesting. Isn't it possible then that Barbaro's bust thru the gate might have been an involuntary reaction to pain? Sort of like accidentally touching something hot and jerking your hand away.

[bigmack]

PA

A superlative evaluation. I had not read it before now. As with your numbers I would have expected to see a grander number from Barbaro's Derby Performance. Though it was spelled out in pace to be formidable. A study of his visual performance outside the numbers was that of real drive. In your vast experience have you found that it's OK to step off the numbers a bit and go on soul and drive? Although I agree with 98% of your analysis.

Quick Q: I also figured BroD to push the pace and be at least a facture. What has happened to this horse in your O?

Thanks. Keep this charming vessel afloat - at times, it's a beut!!!!

[PaceAdvantage]

PA

A superlative evaluation. I had not read it before now. As with your numbers I would have expected to see a grander number from Barbaro's Derby Performance. Though it was spelled out in pace to be formidable. A study of his visual performance outside the numbers was that of real drive. In your vast experience have you found that it's OK to step off the numbers a bit and go on soul and drive? Although I agree with 98% of your analysis.

Quick Q: I also figured BroD to push the pace and be at least a facture. What has happened to this horse in your O?

Thanks. Keep this charming vessel afloat - at times, it's a beut!!!!


Stop it, I'm blushing! :blush:

Seriously, it wasn't all that superlative. I failed to see the winner as any major threat, Greeley's Legacy didn't run a lick, and SNS disappointed again. About the only thing I got right was Like Now's utter failure and the fact that Kent D. was bound to disappoint me....

Brother Derek? I don't know. He's a horse with the numbers, but he's never excited me. Maybe it's the bute? Maybe he was facing some really crap competition out there....after all, NONE of the California horses have had much of an impact outside of their playground, correct?

[bigmack]

Really PA you sail this ship in stormy seas at times but you get her home s&s.

Anywho, any credence you give to spirit/drive and all that stuff or just numbers? The preponderance of my opionions come from data though this last week I stepped into watching replays and they can say things data don't (or something like that)

[JackS]

In my estimation, SNS had the ability to win either the Derby or Preakness or both. Now it's time for our excuses. Either SNS was not at his peak for these two races or he's not the horse we thought he was.
Now the new dillema is weather he shoud be tried again in the Belmont if he shows up. Personally, I want to see the PP's before blindly playing SNS again.
If he figures this time and appears on the way up in his form cycle, I might actually give him this last shot. If something else looks better ,I might totally dismiss him.
Anyone else have some thoughts on this horse?
Positive or negative I would really enjoy hearing other opinions.

[Tom]

SNS was no next coming of anyone prior to that one big race, and at KEE of all places. And he has been a failuire twice since that fluke outing. Stick a fork in him he is done. Never use anything run at KEE as a baraometer of anything but chaos.

[Valuist]

I think you mean Haw, not Kee. I thought he ran a big race in the Preakness and I've been a detractor of his. He battled two wide through a fast pace this time and completely wasted Like Now. I was more impressed by his 2nd in the Preakness than his big fig Ill. Derby win.

[PaceAdvantage]

I see much to like about SNS, even throwing out his big win. SNS did hurt himself in the Preakness. I know, I know, how many excuses can you give a horse, right?

But I'm a sucker for this horse. I still think that given a rest, he can come back and be a major force later in the year.

[RXB]

By my numbers, Sweetnorthernsaint's 6f pace figure has improved in every one of his route races. So contrary to thinking that he's finished, I think he's on the rise. If he gets over the quarter crack without any trouble, and Bernardini doesn't show up, he would be the horse to beat in the Belmont. (Two large if's-- especially the latter.) I think he'll like the big course and the long distance / moderate pace.

His KD was, in my opinion, a combination of tying up a bit after the quick 6f workout, plus a not-so-good trip combined with facing a tougher pace than he'd seen previously. The Preakness was a pretty good showing; he went a little too fast early in pressing Like Now and then was run over by a horse who looks like he could be an absolute champ if he stays sound.

[PaceAdvantage]

Pre-race before the Derby, and again before the Preakness, I would hear that SNS did not look all that great. Is this something to put stock in, especially if he were to go in the Belmont?

[Tom]

Oh dam- I'm talking about Sinister Minister again!
Never mind.:blush:

[Tom]

Pre-race before the Derby, and again before the Preakness, I would hear that SNS did not look all that great. Is this something to put stock in, especially if he were to go in the Belmont?

I thought he looked horrible when he got off the van Saturday morning.

[DerbyTrail]

Saint won't be going in the Belmont...

And Tom, I don't know what horse you saw Saturday, but Saint hardly "looked horrible". Ridiculous.

[the_fat_man]

Damn, was in the middle of composing this when my browser shut down.

Slipped me a trojan, PA?;)

I, for one, pay very close attention to the physical condition comments of the forum members. Cause I know that they're really at a high level when it comes to the scrutiny of horseflesh.

In fact, horseflesh judging skills on this forum are second only to racewatching acumen. Uh huh.:lol:

I particularly appreciated the breaking down of Barbaro's stride immediately upon leaving the gate, by those very experienced in the art of the thoroughbred stride, in the attempt to convince us that he was hurting.

Well, hat's off, boys. I can barely pick up lead changes and level of urging by the jockey when it comes to online race video.

In other words, while trying to make a point, anyone is liable to say just about anything.

Hey, we have those without degrees claiming to be college graduates.

Why wouldn't those who have never actually been around a thoroughbred (like, working on the backstretch, for example) offer comments as to horses' condtion? I value it all. No information is bad information.

Yeah, it's all good.

[the_fat_man]

I haven't thought that much of this horse (SNS) since the Gotham

at root, he's a punk--- a talented punk but a punk nonetheless

now, that's bad enough in itself

but it gets worse

KD rides

so, even in races where the punk is good enough to win with a good trip

KD will almost always ensure that the punk will get a bad trip

that the punk will work more than he has to

that the punk will work harder than the horse(s) that beat(s) him

which, makes us think that maybe the punk is not really a punk
but just got a bad rep

Ask yourself, PA,

if the punk sits a perfect trip, along with Bernardini, (and lets BD do the premature pushing; I mean, Kent, what's the gain in gunning so BD doesn't get a jump on you?)

does he outfinish Bernardini?

If your answer is YES,
bet him back (and pray that KD is not aboard)

If you weren't impressed by the punk's DWIlike navigation of the stretch in the Preakness,

wait till he's entered in a field of bigger punks ---- maybe a race that includes BD, Sunriver, Private Vow, etc.

Send it in :ThmbUp:

[KingChas]

I thought SNS ran a better race than I anticipated.When I heard he was arriving the day (morning) of the race,my thoughts quickly turned to the Medaglia (BF) incident. ;)

[BIG49010]

I agree SNS ran better than I anticipated, and the race that Lewis Michael ran in the Peter Pan confirms that his race in the Illinois Derby was very good. A moderate pace, could give him a big chance in the Belmont, but my guess is you will have a 12-14 horse field in Belmont and no moderate pace.

Going into the derby I thought this was a very average crop of 3 year olds, I changed my mind after the derby, now I am changing it back.

[bigmack]

As he's reliant on the late run - size o' field and the Belmont bias at distance may play a factor for SNS, considered by some here as a "bum" and others as not having the oppourtunity to show his true colors. If the distance were long - real long, he's a shoe in.

[46zilzal]

Anyone else have some thoughts on this horse?
Positive or negative I would really enjoy hearing other opinions.
SNS's energy distribution numbers are a lot like Aflleet Alex and Birdstone and, if healthy, I would run him in the Belmont.

[JPinMaryland]

Gee I cant remember the last time Birdstone or Afleet Alex staggered down the home stretch...

[PaceAdvantage]

Gee I cant remember the last time Birdstone or Afleet Alex staggered down the home stretch...

SNS suffered a pretty significant injury in the Preakness, or haven't you heard?

[JPinMaryland]

Have not heard. Just got back from 2 days in PA, cleaning out my dad's old place. He's okay just not able to live on his own anymore.

I had to listen to freakin' FOX news on the radio just to keep up with Barb.s condition. No cable, no tv.

What happened to SNS??

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, I read a quote from Kent D., and a little later I received a PM from someone who was with the SNS crew the day of the Preakness. They both say that he grabbed a quarter pretty good two steps out of the gate. Kent D. equated it to "ripping your thumb off" but I'm not sure if he was exaggerating or not.

[KingChas]

Going into the derby I thought this was a very average crop of 3 year olds, I changed my mind after the derby, now I am changing it back.

Actually I think the Derby took a lot out of these horses this year.Seems like they are running on fumes.Talking about the tough Derby trips of SNS and BD.

Alas, no one mentions the rough derby trip of Flashy Bull who took a hell of a shot in the chest running full speed from BD's lost shoe. ;)

[JPinMaryland]

I saw that replay of Flashy getting hit with the shoe. OUch :blush:

[Suff]

I have Barbaro by 10 lengths. Maybe 4 if one of the other mortals runs the race of his life.

Bet the rent.

The Landlord hit the Roof when I explained where my rent was.

I told him...
"You think you have problems. I blew 2700 V-Bucks on him at Pace advantage...leaving me with a zero V-cash balance.

Howdayea think that feels!~ Huh! And your worried about a silly thing like a mortgage payment!"

"Try living with no V!"

:D

[Wiley]

Kent D. equated it to "ripping your thumb off" but I'm not sure if he was exaggerating or not.
Trombetta said it was like 'having a toenail torn off' (MSNBC) and played it off as an excuse for SNS loss - I think I saw the later comment in the Handicappers edge.

[RXB]

Saint won't be going in the Belmont...

Do you have some inside info on this?

I ask because, publicly, Trombetta has said that he won't make a decision until early next week. Depends on how SNS' foot has healed.

If Bernardini's connections were to take a pass on the Belmont, there's not much to beat. If I owned SNS, and his physical condition is fine, I sure wouldn't be passing up a shot at a $600,000 payday with a fit horse against weak competition, especially when the distance would seem to favour my horse.

[cj]

If Bernardini's connections were to take a pass on the Belmont...

Passing they are.

[RXB]

Thanks, cj.

If SNS' foot or any other condition prevents him from being ready, certainly his connections should take a pass, too.

But if he's fit and ready to go, they'd be fools to forego this opportunity.

[46zilzal]

ashamed if SNS doesn't get to run in the race his pace lines dictate he fits like a glove.

[46zilzal]

Trombetta said it was like 'having a toenail torn off' (MSNBC) and played it off as an excuse for SNS loss - I think I saw the later comment in the Handicappers edge.
remember from the evolution of the horse from Eohippus: three toes to one. They are essentially walking on one big toe.