Overlay Talk/4 Quarters of Horseracing

[GR1@HTR]

Ok, this is my situation...A strange one...

But to cut to the chase, if I have only one overlay...I suck.
2 overlays I do well betting them both.
3 overlays I do much better betting all 3 than the above.
4 overlays (limited sample) I do better than all the above.

In summary, the more overlays I have in the race among my top 4 choices the much higher my ROI. If I have only 1 overlay in the race then I have made a bad line...

I realize this is very opposite of the norm...Am I sick and need help or does anybody else have similiar experiences?

[cj]

Looks like you do better the weaker you find the actual race favorite. Sounds like your problems are when the favorite is a contender on your line, reducing the number of overlays. Have you looked at the Prohibitive Favorite Filter? It has worked wonders for me when one of my contenders goes off heavily bet.

CJ

[JustMissed]

Isn't an overlay when your calculated odds are less than the public's or toteboard odds. If you've got four overlay's in your top four picks then I would say your calculated odds are wrong or you're the world's greatest handicapper.

I think 'overlay strategies' can be used wrongly by a lot of folks. I believe o.s. are useful in betting decisions only and have no merit in picking w/p/s horses. If the horse you picked doesn't win the overlay doesn't mean diddly.

I believe that overlay strategies work best when making choices of horses to bet among several probable winners or making up combinations in exotic bets or simply when making a decision as to bet or pass a race. If you think horse B will beat horse A just because it is a better overlay you, look out.

It is kinda like golf where a short putt never goes in-if you pick the wrong horse, you'll never cash a ticket, regardless of the overlay calculation.

JustMissed

[rrbauer]

GR:
Why is your "one horse" an overlay? Is it because your handicapping is making an overwhelming case for the horse and the other bettors don't agree? What is the situation vis-a-vis your horse, how it's being bet and the betting favorites? Does it occur more frequently in certain types of races?

I suffer from time to time from what I term "fixation". I become predisposed to a horse (for all of the handicapping reasons you could ever imagine!) and I allow all of those positive attributes (as perceived by me) to filter my perception of the rest of the field and downgrade their chances. So my idea of what the betting line should be (which is a quasi-subjective venture to begin with) is skewed by my bias.

The syndrome becomes dicey because once in awhile I'm right! And, as you're aware, we remember the times that we're right a lot longer and stronger than the times that we're wrong.

So because you have kept records and gained some insights about what is working, and not working, you can start taking a closer look at the "not working" piece to see what got you there and how you can either improve that piece or simply accept that it's a faulty byproduct of your approach and keep your money in your pocket when it occurs.

Do what you do best....

[Rick]

GR1,

My guess is that you're using too many factors combined in an overall rating. When several of the factors are highly correlated with one another the top horse tends to be too obvious and you'll overestimate it's probability of winning. When you have more overlays, the favorite probably ranks low according to your method so you're correctly eliminating a false favorite.

[BillW]

GR1,

Although your present situation sounds like it justifies investigation, a word of caution. Every handicapping style will produce differing characteristics relative to the filters described by Fierro. I think he presented them mostly to provide examples of the type of filters to employ rather than handicapping law. I don't think one should expect their handicapping to produce the same results with the exact same filters as he described in the book.

Bill

[Lefty]

Gr1, If you're winning, don't change a thing...well, maybe your socks.

[cj]

Originally posted by JustMissed
Isn't an overlay when your calculated odds are less than the public's or toteboard odds. If you've got four overlay's in your top four picks then I would say your calculated odds are wrong or you're the world's greatest handicapper.

I think 'overlay strategies' can be used wrongly by a lot of folks. I believe o.s. are useful in betting decisions only and have no merit in picking w/p/s horses. If the horse you picked doesn't win the overlay doesn't mean diddly.

I believe that overlay strategies work best when making choices of horses to bet among several probable winners or making up combinations in exotic bets or simply when making a decision as to bet or pass a race. If you think horse B will beat horse A just because it is a better overlay you, look out.

It is kinda like golf where a short putt never goes in-if you pick the wrong horse, you'll never cash a ticket, regardless of the overlay calculation.

JustMissed

JM,

Its quite easy to get multiple overlays in a single race. HATE the favorite. It obviously doesn't occur as often as we'd like, but it does happen. The key is to be right.

Monarchos return race at GP this year was a perfect example. If you didn't think he could win, as many good handicappers didn't, you were eliminating an odds on horse and ensuring overlays on the other 4 horses in the race.

As far as betting an overlay and not winning meaning diddly, I agree for a particular race, but overall, I disagree. Betting only the horse you think MOST LIKELY to win will cause many missed and quite lucrative oppurtunities.

CJ

[JustMissed]

Thanks for your reply. I agree with everything you said but think I need to clarify some of what I said.

I learned quite a bit of what little I know from studying Jerry Stokes' SECRETS OF HANDICAPPING', and his weekly lessons. He is a huge advocate of betting only overlays(which he terms "value plays"). At one point I was very confused about value plays til I finally understood that Jerry Stokes was simply saying "If you don't have enough value if your bet wins, don't risk any of your bankroll". Once I figured this out and understood how to play a KEY horse, the whole business started to make sense to me.

I truly believe that there are two separate and distinct elements to playing the horses.

1. Selecting the horses most likely to win or place or show.

2. Making up a bet on those selection.

I think both of these elements should be approached seperately and as I am becoming a better handicapper I believe the betting part may be more difficult and challenging than the selectiing part.

As far as what I said about betting a losing overlay-I was trying to emphasis my belief that before you place any bet you have to believe the horse has a chance to hit the board, regardless of the odds, or the value.

Obviously any player would take more risk on a horse that was a greater overlay but by difinition, and overlay is a horse that YOU think is a better horse(has a greater chance to finish)than the public thinks has a chance to finish, and consequently you, the bettor, controls the risk because your the one that calculated the odds.

Didn't mean to ramble so but I only posted so any new players might understand not to get the handicapping confused with the betting. If you think I'm wrong-please let me know.

JustMissed

[cj]

Originally posted by JustMissed

...As far as what I said about betting a losing overlay-I was trying to emphasis my belief that before you place any bet you have to believe the horse has a chance to hit the board, regardless of the odds, or the value...

JustMissed

JM,

I agree with most of what you said. Keep in mind, a horse you don't think is a contender would not be assigned a betting line, and thus could not be an overlay.

CJ

[Lefty]

An overlay is not necessarily a horse you think has a better chance than others only that its odds exceeds its chances. You might think a fav has a 30% chance but is only 1-1 and you might think your overlay has a 14% chance but is 9-1 a juicy 50% overlay, and yes that fav is going to beat you many times but if your horse is a true overlay you will win money.

[Aussieplayer]

GR1,

After reading the book I went and did some races, "traditional" style. Pick the contenders, asign the line, do it quickly. I found the same thing. It paid NOT to pass races with more than 2 overlays but to PLAY THEM ALL.
Currently I'm revisiting contender selection in four quarter speak, or re-looking at methods, if you like. Some handicappers play without an odds line at all of course, and something I am doing at the moment doesn't use an odds line (currently 80% hit rate), which I have already mentioned on the board. But there is built in value there somewhere, no matter what Dick tells you! :)

So in short, don't be concerned - that's what your records are for - to tell you what's right for you. And that was part of the message of the book too.

Cheers
AP

[steve fierro]

There are three boards that contain players and posts that I have nothing but respect for. They are This one, Homebased2 (HTR) and Netcapper (Gordon Pine). One of the key items I pointed out in the book is that a few "students" of the game would latch on to the concepts, embrace them and run with them. This is what's happening. There is a group of players that realize that the base 4 quarters strategies are the key. In answer to Gr's post (and someone else referred to it). Your fourth quarter records guide your path. Just as my records guide mine. The best analogy I can give is a restaurant that is always packed may not do well with certain menu items, while another one with the same menu items can't feed those same items to the customer quick enough. They are both successful but for different reasons. The best part of all this is that the book is getting players to talk about money instead of winners. I am in Heaven right now as I write this from the press box at Del Mar. I had not been here in 22 years. What a race plant. See you in the short line Steve Fierro P.S. to the board administartors. I hope it's okay to mention the other boards.

[andicap]

Don't you think you can promote Steve Fierro from a mere apprentice? I mean, he did write a book.



:D

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by steve fierro
There are three boards that contain players and posts that I have nothing but respect for. They are This one, Homebased2 (HTR) and Netcapper (Gordon Pine). One of the key items I pointed out in the book is that a few "students" of the game would latch on to the concepts, embrace them and run with them. This is what's happening. There is a group of players that realize that the base 4 quarters strategies are the key. In answer to Gr's post (and someone else referred to it). Your fourth quarter records guide your path. Just as my records guide mine. The best analogy I can give is a restaurant that is always packed may not do well with certain menu items, while another one with the same menu items can't feed those same items to the customer quick enough. They are both successful but for different reasons. The best part of all this is that the book is getting players to talk about money instead of winners. I am in Heaven right now as I write this from the press box at Del Mar. I had not been here in 22 years. What a race plant. See you in the short line Steve Fierro P.S. to the board administartors. I hope it's okay to mention the other boards.


Beg to differ, Steve. Heaven is when you just hit a 31.40 horse at MTH while sitting in your underwear with a big bowl of Dryer's Cookies and Cream in front of you!!

Glad to hear you're having fun!!

Bob

[Aussieplayer]

I'm not surprised that there is a group running with the ideas in the book. In my opinion, it is the best book on "racing as a business" that has ever been written - and I read handicapping books from all around the world.
After finishing the last page I had that sad feeling you get when you realise you've just finished an instant classic - because you want more pages to read!!

I honestly hope the book becomes a best-seller, and suggest that PA board members consider getting it.

Cheers
AP

[Tom]

Originally posted by Bob Harris



Beg to differ, Steve. Heaven is when you just hit a 31.40 horse at MTH while sitting in your underwear with a big bowl of Dryer's Cookies and Cream in front of you!!

Glad to hear you're having fun!!

Bob

I hope you are betting at home and not with Dick Schmidt at the track!:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

[hurrikane]

Steve,
nice to see you post. Picked up your book after meeting you at TCs 120 degree party in LV.
The biggest thing I got from your book was keeping more detailed records to track where you are good and where you need work.

Thanks for the insight...and do me a favor...jump in the Pacific one time for me!!

Greg

[ridersup]

Steve:

Don't know if you monitor this board or not but last night a friend of mine called from Maine. He indicated that he just bought your book 4 quarters of handicapping. He further indicated that in your book you gave an aknowledgement to one Aldo Pelligrini.

Im wondering if this is the same Aldo that runs horses at Tampa Bay and also in Illinois.

Could you drop me a line at sewist@hotmail.com

[zieglerjw]

are you insinuating you win 80% of your selected wagers !!you are a genius ,no doubt , or very, very selective!! I suppose you don't dare share your handicapping methods with others,so you can maintain good payoffs ..right?? I hope someday you will post some of your selections before the race(s) run so we all might get a thrill seeing your expertise in action ...