Night racing

[jeebus1083]

Who here bets at night?

If you do, what methods do you use that work for you when betting night tracks?

Do we emphasize J/T combos? Form cycles? The toteboard?

I'm a sucker for betting at night, and would like to have a better grasp at what I'm doing! :)

[JustRalph]

Who here bets at night?

If you do, what methods do you use that work for you when betting night tracks?

Do we emphasize J/T combos? Form cycles? The toteboard?
I'm a sucker for betting at night, and would like to have a better grasp at what I'm doing! :)

I bet them the same way I do during the day..........maybe I am the fool......but what the hell difference does it make?

[jeebus1083]

Tonight I played Penn National, and made assessments of form cycles using the BRIS speed figs and Microsoft Excel. I used the horse's last 6 races (if there were few PP lines for maidens, maybe last 3 races), plugged in the speed fig for each performance and found the average speed fig. I equated that to the graph that Excel made, and determined that the avg. speed fig was the horse's PAR. I then would decide if the horse was capable of exceeding his PAR or was due to regress. Doing that resulted in narrowing fields down to 2 or 3, which makes for good P3 or P4 wagers. I collected a DD, and 3 P3s through the 1st 8 at Penn, and I'm alive with 3 horses in the Late DD. Not saying that this system is sure-fire, as racing involves a lot of luck, but as far as using this for the multi-race wagers, it seems to be profitable for me tonight.

[toetoe]

Speedy surfaces at BM and Hol, which run tomorrow night.

[Tom]

First thing I do differently is turn on a light!

[jeebus1083]

First thing I do differently is turn on a light!

HAHA :D

In all seriousness, my approach to tonight's action seemed to work marvelously. It seemed to help me point out overlays at certain prices (two examples from PEN tonight: In Race 5, a 12-1 that I included on my Race 4-6 P3 ticket was nosed out, which would have made for a better payout, but you take what you can. In Race 8, I had a 5-1 stalk and pounce for the win over an odds-on Scott Lake horse). These were horses that didn't necessarily have the looks of a winner, but after graphing their last 6 figures and averaging them, I was able to visually see where there could be potential improvement or potential bounce. After factoring in the other important elements of handicapping, a wager was in order. The way my Excel program worked, it led to $1 P3 spreads, and the rest is history.

[trying2win]

Tonight I played Penn National, and made assessments of form cycles using the BRIS speed figs and Microsoft Excel. I used the horse's last 6 races (if there were few PP lines for maidens, maybe last 3 races), plugged in the speed fig for each performance and found the average speed fig. I equated that to the graph that Excel made, and determined that the avg. speed fig was the horse's PAR. I then would decide if the horse was capable of exceeding his PAR or was due to regress. Doing that resulted in narrowing fields down to 2 or 3, which makes for good P3 or P4 wagers. I collected a DD, and 3 P3s through the 1st 8 at Penn, and I'm alive with 3 horses in the Late DD. Not saying that this system is sure-fire, as racing involves a lot of luck, but as far as using this for the multi-race wagers, it seems to be profitable for me tonight.


--Another bragger ....YAWN! Give me a story about some of the learning, trial and error you went through before you became a long-term winner. Now that would make for some interesting reading!

--If I'm not mistaken, I think it was in one of Joe Takach's articles where he said something to the effect, that even if you're a long-term winner at the track, you're going to have a lot more losing days than winning days at the track. Right on Joe! That's why threads like the one on 'DEALING WITH LOSING' I find, are more relevant with what really happens with most of us handicappers out at the track. The losing streaks always seem to last longer than the winning streaks...lol. Enjoy the winning streaks while they last, because you'll envitably hit that 'brick wall' where no matter what you do in your handicapping, you lose...and the losing streak has begun...and during that losing streak, sometimes you feel like you're cursed!....then one day you hit a big payoff once more....HOORAY!...FINALLY!...and you're smiling and happy days are here again.

--Of the PA members who allege they are long-term winners playing the horses...I estimate that about 20% of them are telling the truth. This is a higher percentage than the norm you'd find amongst racetrackers in general. My intuition leads me to believe who amongst the PA members are long-term winners at the track. Just by their intelligent posts, packed with wisdom and brilliant insights into what it takes to be a profitable player, fills me with awe, inspiration and admiration. Congratulations to the truthful long-term winners, you earned it.

--BTW, I don't think it makes a difference whether you play the races during the afternoon or evening, your handicapping should be the same.


T2W

[Murph]

HAHA :D

In all seriousness, my approach to tonight's action seemed to work marvelously. It seemed to help me point out overlays at certain prices (two examples from PEN tonight: (CLIP.....IT) The way my Excel program worked, it led to $1 P3 spreads, and the rest is history.

Hi jeebzz, I will validate your opinion with mine. I have been a night capper since I started and have noted some differences from playing at night and then on the occasional weekend card. The first thing I learned was that Friday night winners at Turfway would often fail on Sunday afternoon.

It turns out that a double class jump is often too much to overcome. Night races and night tracks are run at a lower purse level in general. Our figures ("pipsqueak" as they may be) point to less consistency from runners in every main factor. In most races below 8k claiming, winners and times don't carry the same predictive value and trainer-owner-jock win%'s don't always pick up the slack. I feel that if you want to play "night" tracks that you need to find an edge in additional information. There is plenty to be had and you can often build your edge by paying closer attention than most of the people you can see betting with you.

My edge factor for playing Turfway night cards and harness racing "in the dead of winter and in the middle of the night" is the weather. Where I live the weather changes daily and most often at night. If you tag your charts with a detailed weather note and when weather affected the running of a night race you will find some Sunday jumpers. Sometimes you will make unique observations and sometimes the weatherman will be betting your plays. For example I like to gauge the wind speed and direction by the flags. The cameramen at Turfway often focus on the flags esp. when conditions are severe or if they have changed during the card. Keep a record of your plays for a long time and you will soon know the differences between night and day. I consider a long time every day for the current meeting, 60 days or so will be about 400 races, at the track and go from there.

Short answer to your question - Consider only factors that improve ROI at the lower purse races - and then play close attention to track conditions at night. You're welcome to research factors for any tracks you play on our website, try the past performance database and play the percentage edge with your added info. You can do allright.

Murph

[jeebus1083]

--Another bragger ....YAWN! Give me a story about some of the learning, trial and error you went through before you became a long-term winner. Now that would make for some interesting reading!

--If I'm not mistaken, I think it was in one of Joe Takach's articles where he said something to the effect, that even if you're a long-term winner at the track, you're going to have a lot more losing days than winning days at the track. Right on Joe! That's why threads like the one on 'DEALING WITH LOSING' I find, are more relevant with what really happens with most of us handicappers out at the track. The losing streaks always seem to last longer than the winning streaks...lol. Enjoy the winning streaks while they last, because you'll envitably hit that 'brick wall' where no matter what you do in your handicapping, you lose...and the losing streak has begun...and during that losing streak, sometimes you feel like you're cursed!....then one day you hit a big payoff once more....HOORAY!...FINALLY!...and you're smiling and happy days are here again.

--Of the PA members who allege they are long-term winners playing the horses...I estimate that about 20% of them are telling the truth. This is a higher percentage than the norm you'd find amongst racetrackers in general. My intuition leads me to believe who amongst the PA members are long-term winners at the track. Just by their intelligent posts, packed with wisdom and brilliant insights into what it takes to be a profitable player, fills me with awe, inspiration and admiration. Congratulations to the truthful long-term winners, you earned it.

--BTW, I don't think it makes a difference whether you play the races during the afternoon or evening, your handicapping should be the same.


T2W

Hey if you don't have anything positive to say, don't say a word at all. I was just posting a form cycle strategy that I utilized that's all. It just so happened that I tested it with real money and I happened to do OK. If you want, I'll do this for Hollywood Park tonight, as I'm curious of what it will show when I'm playing a class/form track, how it will effect my handicapping, etc. As a matter of fact, I will even post my plays in this very thread, with some analysis. How about it? ;)

[JustRalph]

Hey if you don't have anything positive to say, don't say a word at all. I was just posting a form cycle strategy that I utilized that's all. It just so happened that I tested it with real money and I happened to do OK. If you want, I'll do this for Hollywood Park tonight, as I'm curious of what it will show when I'm playing a class/form track, how it will effect my handicapping, etc. As a matter of fact, I will even post my plays in this very thread, with some analysis. How about it? ;)

yes, but the form cycle strategy you posted had nothing to do with "night" racing specifically. you start a thread about night racing and then you really didn't discuss it in your form cycle analysis. Just a little odd, yes?

I don't think there was anything innovative about your form cycle strategy, but where does it fall in relevence to the thread? Maybe I missed something, fill me in.........

[socantra]

yes, but the form cycle strategy you posted had nothing to do with "night" racing specifically. you start a thread about night racing and then you really didn't discuss it in your form cycle analysis. Just a little odd, yes?

I don't think there was anything innovative about your form cycle strategy, but where does it fall in relevence to the thread? Maybe I missed something, fill me in.........

Innovative or not, form cycle analysis assumes more importance at lower class tracks, which is where most of the night racing takes place.

Few of these horses are overly talented or consistent. Anything that gives a possible picture for analyzing form beyond race to race performance might well give you a leg up.

Seems relavent to me.

socantra...

[thebeacondeacon]

yes, but the form cycle strategy you posted had nothing to do with "night" racing specifically. you start a thread about night racing and then you really didn't discuss it in your form cycle analysis. Just a little odd, yes?

I don't think there was anything innovative about your form cycle strategy, but where does it fall in relevence to the thread? Maybe I missed something, fill me in.........

He specifically tied it into night racing, based upon his observation that poorer, less consistent horses run at night and, therefore, need a specific kind of form cycle analysis.

Hollywood and/or Bay Meadows, tonight, will be an interesting test of his hypothesis, because the quality of their Friday night fields is usually consistent with their weekday afternoon runners.

thebeacondeacon

[skate]

ya but gee wiz, can't ya see that he's packing wisdom and insite?

easy on somebody with all dat.

i'm glad i finished my coffee, thanks

[JustRalph]

I don't get it.......... you guys are referencing class? not the "night racing" portion of it. If they ran the same races in the daytime, you would cap them the same way, no? Due to where they are running.........

OK, I won't argue apples to oranges etc........and I get your link that these class of horses run mostly at night.................

[jeebus1083]

Hollywood Race 1-3 with DD and P3 plays posted in Selections forum.

[socantra]

Sorry, I was thinking of tracks like Evangeline, Mountaineer and Penn National, where they always run at night. I definitely think form cycle analysis is important there, and that the method of play varies somewhat from playing major tracks which run in the daytime, due to the quality of horse involved. It is not the night but the quality of horse.

As far as tracks which run one nighttime card a week with the same horse population that runs in the daytime, the only difference that I can think of is that we used to do well when Remington Park ran one night a week by givng a slight plus to the horses who had previously run at night. It is a different experience.

socantra