Who are you watching among Midatlantic trainers ?

[Bathless]

interesting...mr.speedfigures himself, jerry brown said on his own board on thorograph.com that there was nowhere where the trainer factor was more dominant than the midatlantic states. and the the track where this applied most of all was delaware park. i'm inclined to agree.I'm just getting back into the game after taking a break in October 05 and I'm in the process of putting my Trainer Watch List together for the summer. Since I play the Midatlantic tracks exclusively (MTH PHA DEL CNL PIM -- in that order), I'm interested in what others look for with trainers on this 'circuit', where horses easily ship from track to track everyday. I say let's throw in PEN and CT for completeness. I am inclined to omit NYRA, because it's one of a handful of elite circuits, but several NYRA-based trainers run quite a few in NJ and DEL. I'll post some of my ideas in the next few days.

Who are the Midatlantic trainers you follow?

Most importantly, WHY ???

[Doc]

Alan Goldberg - based at Colts Neck Training Center in NJ, wins at a high percentage with horses coming off long layoffs. Ignore the workout times that are listed for his horses for Colts Neck, they don't mean anything and are probably not accurate. Has been using Eddie Castro as his go-to rider.

John Dunn - based at Philadelphia, small outfit, high percentage trainer, ships to win everywhere.

Steve Mick - based at Philadelphia, very high % trainer, can pop with a price horse or chalk, ships to win. Very good first off the claim.

Good luck!

Doc ;)

[Bathless]

Steve Mick - based at Philadelphia, very high % trainer, can pop with a price horse or chalk, ships to win. Very good first off the claim.

Thanks for the heads up about Mick, Doc.

I like him A LOT first off the claim in sprints, but not as much in routes. But I've got him at 12 (6 2) second after the claim in sprints AWP $5.97 $2ROI $2.98. As for popping with a price horse, he shipped into MTH a couple of years ago and I caught him with GRATITUDE ATTACK at better than 10/1. Horse was coming out of a DEL Stakes he had no chance in (vs. PRIVATE LAP and MAX FOREVER, if the grey cells are right). I think he came back 3 weeks later with the same critter and won again! Also better than good with layoff sprinters and his winners repeat about 1/3 of the time.

Bookoo solid guy who goes right onto my Watch List.

BTW, does anyone have the skinny on another PA guy, Todd Beattie? On Saturday at MTH, my buddy pointed out a 40% win rate for this guy in 2006. Any details? I know he runs a bunch at PHA, but he's primarily a PEN trainer, n'est pas?

Also, wasn't MAX FOREVER a 1/2 or full bro to a real superstar? I'm thinking GHOSTZAPPER or SPEIGHTSTOWN. I guess I could look it up, but....

[Bathless]

I've been following this guy forever. Back in 1994, the year of the BULL, Small kept a small string at MTH for the summer; among them was CONCERN. During the meeting, my buddy and I caught several $20+ winners from Small that followed a pattern: a maiden showing one or two mediocre-to-poor efforts in sprints, then stretched out onto the grass. The winners were all sired by DANCING COUNT (some might have also had BROAD BRUSH in their pedigree) and ridden by Tracey Brown. Don't remember her? Few do. Real good looker, too. We were almost giddy, because here was Dickie Small winning races, we were onto him, and the crowd was not. BTW, I never saw the man bet a nickel and he's easy to follow -- not many 6'3" guys around with a straw hat and a bow tie.

One afternoon, Small had a maiden filly named BEADED MOCASSINS entered in a grass race at MTH with the same pattern. I couldn't even sleep the night before. I see my buddy coming into the paddock and he's shaking his head and hands me a chart from the Form. Turns out, unknown to us, Small ran the filly the day before at PIM or LRL. She won and paid about $30. This was before the Internet, before online results charts, before online entries, and before anyone ever dreamed of watch lists.

I've been trying to catch Small with the same pattern ever since, with little success. Make that no success. Either the race came off the grass or the critter lost, sometimes both.

Today, there are no more DANCING COUNTs (he died -- I think Small owned him with his family) and Dickie's MO is quite a bit different. He doesn't ship around as much. But he's still the Maestro. And he's adjusted. So must we.

He wins at a solid 20+% clip overall, even better with MSW maidens, but not so hot with maiden claimers. He never claims any, but he's dynamite with his layoff routers. 1st/2nd/3rd off layoff shows 27/25/35% respectively. That's solid, folks.

His winners repeat about 36% of the time, he wins 22% on stretchouts and a remarkable 45% second-time-long. He hasn't been winning when he puts them on the grass anymore -- probably due the stock he's running and the loss of DANCING COUNT -- but clicks at better than a 26% rate going turf to dirt. Overall, he's significantly better with 2-turn horses, but his ROI is not positive in many areas. Be careful and pick your spots.

Joz Santana is his go-to rider, but Luis Garcia was more profitable. Problem is I don't see Garcia on many lately for Small. Also, don't be afraid when you see Victor Molina aboard for the trainer.

Small is not winning at his usual rate right now, but his critters are hitting the board. So the not winning will end -- it's inevitabe.

[cash2]

good thread. agree with all three of doc's picks. learned the hard way about mick . backed off after playing him first off the claim and watched them romp. i pay attention to the claiming trainers,ritchey lake pino vaders wolfendale etc. most important to me is who they claim from. not an original approach but it can still pay dividends. a few years ago when brent sumja was at del, tim ritchey took four off him and three came right back to win while the fourth ran second. might have won but it was a closer on a real speed track. the best guy to claim from was ronnie houghton. he had good stock but i think he just went out to the pasture and threw a bridle on. Banjopicker, a nice horse for steve krebs was a houghton claim. i can remember a trifecta at the pha where all three horses were either first or second off the claim from houghton. bernard houghton who i believe to be the son is doing the training now. still worth following.

you asked for trainers. here are some obscure ones. edward english w a fts usually a mcl. got this from bain. phenomenal record. usually a homebred. the sire he stands may be getting older so don't know about this.

ken furlong. good with the babies. just won a 2f race at 9-1 at del on monday. has a nice turf mare, walkin in da sun, that throws runners.

paul conrad. sometimes takes over a jayeffbee horse from alan goldberg and runs at the pha. good angle at the pha for years. first time out for conrad on this move.

carlos soto. really obscure. good horseman who can move a horse up. had a first time soto horse pay $70 late last year.

a little angle i'm working on is teams. looking for guys who collude. never claim off each other, may share a barn or owner, enter horses out of conditions or in odd spots so that the race will fill,then one may scratch or better yet, keep the horse in a dull try. don't think i should name names here as this is a public forum. PA might think i'm accusing somebody of dishonesty . not my intention. just how the game is played. not so sure on this anyway.

[Bathless]

most important to me is who they claim from

Yup. I don't bet many even money shots, but when Mike Pino took one from Tom Pavlick about 2 years ago, I knew the critter would move up 8 lengths easy. Total serenity. Started me on my own 'who did he claim from' campaign.

I know about Conrad and Jayeff B, but I don't have much on either Soto or English.

But Furlong -- 39/1, 17/1, 17/1 again. YIKES !!! Thanks, Cash. Will investigate.

One guy I'm working up is Scott Volk. Rehabs banged up old veterans, then --
KABOOM !!!

[Bathless]

Some results of horses running 1st after a claim from the following trainers.
Numbers are claims, wins, places and some Avg. Win Payouts.

Robbie Bailes 16 5/2
Ryan Beattie 4 3/1
Hubert Cave 3 2/0
Ed Coletti 9 3/1
Joe Delozier 7 3/1
Doc Fisher 7 4/0
Mitch Friedman 8 3/1
Paul McClelland 17 5/2
Mike Matz 6 3/2
Keith LeBarron 13 5/1
King L. 16 5/2
Tim Hooper 25 7/5 (mostly Michael Gill horses?)
Pete Klesaris 13 5/8
Bob Klesaris 51 10/10 $15.74
Steve Klesaris 31 7/7 $11.01
Leslie Glazier 6 3/0 $25.60
Dom Galluscio 37 9/1
Don Reeder 16 4/3 $21.25
Peggy Pruitt 8 5/1
Mike Pino 101 20/17 $14.94 (Surprising)
Graham Motion 16 5/3 $13.52
Jerry Thurston 16 5/0 $11.96

Note: this data is somewhat incomplete. Knowing who made the claims is also a big part of the puzzle. But there it is....

If you're like me, you thought the way to play the game was to wait until Pino claimed one, then bet it. Better to wait until he has one taken away. Much more profitable.

[betchatoo]

Bathless:

I'm amazed at your generosity, sharing this info that you took the time to put together. Thank you

[cash2]

great list! thanks. i still see tracy brown at delpark once in a while. last year i think she was working over at the fair hill training center. still looks good!

[Bathless]

I'm amazed at your generosity, sharing this info that you took the time to put together. Thank you

Don't thank me yet. The game changes from day to day. ;) Besides, the exercise is causing me to refresh my memory about a lot of this stuff and I've just gotten several great ideas from others.

But a light bulb just went on.:jump:

Thinking about Small's stretchout/switch to the grass pattern reminded me of something I just read at: horsestats.blogspot.com

A fellow who calls himself statsman writes about an even sprint running line to look for in a stretch-out horse. I'm wondering if that wasn't what I was seeing with Small's maidens 12 years ago. Unfortunately, I don't have any 12 year old Forms lying around. Or fortunately, 'cause they'd stink to high hell by now. Anyway, read it, but do so carefully. Statsman is not claiming that horses with this running line win 20% (or whatever) of races. What he is saying is that in races won by a horse paying over 15/1, a large % were won by a horse stretching out for the first time and showing an evenly run sprint in the prior race. At least that's my interpretation. In any event, big difference.

I'm just starting to look for these. I thought I had one at MTH on Saturday, but I passed when the trainer didn't show any strength with the move. A Pletcher stretchout won at a short price and they're still trying to find my critter. Probably want to look for a stamina-oriented pedigree, too.

[Bathless]

The numbers for Pete Klesaris are wrong.

Should be 13 5/3, not 13 5/8. 13 5/8 is scary.

[Stevie Belmont]

Goldberg is great when running a horse on the grass for the first time after it has run on dirt only. Almost 30%.

[Bathless]

i still see tracy brown at delpark once in a while. last year i think she was working over at the fair hill training center. still looks good!

Hey, cash, give her a big wet one for me. Tell her Bathless says hello. She'll remember. :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Bathless]

Stevie, I noticed the URL. Do you know Bobby H? I went to HS with his pop. Didn't know him; he was 3 years behind me, I'm sad to say.

[Stevie Belmont]

Some Monmouth Trainers who do well

Ned Allard-Smart trainer, has horses ready when shipped.
Kelly Breen- Last years meet leader.
Danny Lopez- Horses always well meant.
Tim Hills- Always among the leaders, good horseman.
Vicki Oliver- Always has some nice turfers
Greg Sacco- Continues to get better stock
Jason Servis- Had a big year last, should do well again
Pete Walder- Smart, always dangerous off the claim
Alan Seewald- Gets his share
Jamie Woodington- Good trainer, gets horses ready
Willard Thompson- Oldie with plenty of J Breds always
Norman Pointer- Solid on turf
Kevin Sleeter- Great with young J Bred Stock
Ben Perkins Jr- Always comes up with good horses
Joe Pierce- Usually has a good meet
Ed Broome- Horses get ready in Florida and do well here
Jimmy Ryerson- Has some ready to go, good horseman

[Doc]

Just a little more info on two trainers mentioned above:

Carlos Soto - Never has more than 3 horses in his barn at a time, very sharp and crafty who often pays a big price...capable guy who learned his trade in Cuba. Pay attention whenever you see him...which isn't often.

Paul Conrad - Was an assistant to Goldberg during the Safely Kept years...almost obsessive in his attention to detail in his barn...Goldberg sends him horses that can't cut it in his program, usually well-bred types bought by Jayeff "B" Stables or bred by them. The fillies they're looking to make into winners before retiring them for breeding. The colts they're usually looking to get claimed. Conrad won't run unless his horses are ready. Usually money in the bank.

Doc :ThmbUp:

[cash2]

Doc, does this ring a bell with you.? a few years ago, i seem to remember soto dropping in a claim for himself for about 10k. the horse broke down during the race and i assume soto got stuck. that's a lot of dough for a small operator to eat and he seemed to vanish for a while. glad he's back. while i'm yakking, i've always wondered why richard vega imploded. i remember when he was money! the game keeps changing.

[Bathless]

2 winters ago, we were playing PHA from Freehold and Conrad rolled in NECROPOLIS, a first-time starter who cost $2M. Since he cost more than every other horse on the entire card combined, we bet him, he rolled and paid around $10, I think. The critter won an allowance in Goldberg's name, then never did any good after that. I think Jayeff B bred him, so that was probably a buy back price. I remember him because I haven't cashed too many nice tickets on Jayeff B stock. Goldberg gets bet.

I know of Conrad, but I can't say that I remember seeing him as the trainer of record for anything in a while, at least not in this neck of the woods.:confused:

[Bathless]

How horses perform 1st after being claimed away from these trainers:

Phil Aristone 36 3/1
Christophe Clement 11 0/1
Pat Farro 35 3/6
Ben Feliciano 12 1/2
Stan Hough 9 0/0
Mike Hushion 21 0/4
Allen Iwinski 33 1/3 (not currently active, but interesting)
The Chief 13 1/1
Steve Krebs 13 1/2
Bruce Levine 32 1/5 (whew)
Cal Lynch 13 1/1
Stephen Mick 11 0/1
Lupe Preciado 15 1/3
Ramon Preciado 26 1/4
Tim Ritchey 21 2/0
Bob Seeger 36 3/4
Jane Vayders 29 1/6 (hmmm)

The WHYs:
Moving to a weaker barn?
Bad stock?
Hmmmm?

Discovering why looks like a lot of work and probably still wouldn't be definitive. It might be enough to just know who.

[CapperLou]

Just want to thank you guys for trainer info--things change as mentioned earlier, but this will still help a lot.

Angles like these seem to be perhaps the only way to stay on top anymore. Once too many players get their hands on a good software program that actually can point out winners--down go the mutuels and you with it.

So, spot plays like these may be the only way when there is value to actually be profitable.

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. I'm just starting to play again also after taking a break since last October.

[Doc]

Doc, does this ring a bell with you.? a few years ago, i seem to remember soto dropping in a claim for himself for about 10k. the horse broke down during the race and i assume soto got stuck. that's a lot of dough for a small operator to eat and he seemed to vanish for a while. glad he's back. while i'm yakking, i've always wondered why richard vega imploded. i remember when he was money! the game keeps changing.

Yes, this does ring a bell with me. Soto dropped the slip for a horse trained by Ned Allard who was dropping way down in class. It was a sloppy track, and the horse broke down going into the first turn. Fortunately for Soto, he had some type of claim insurance, which prevents you from taking a bath when incidents like this occur.

Do you remember a horse called Chico T? That was Soto's big horse for a while, he won a lot of money with him.

I think Soto vanished for a while because his horses either were claimed away (Cubanero, for one, he was claimed by Steve Mick and now is running up at Penn National) or were retired due to soundness issues.

I don't know what the deal is with Richard Vega. He was a powerhouse for a while, now rarely wins. Come to think of it, he hardly runs any horses anymore. I'm thinking he had money issues (re: went broke), but I don't know that for a fact.

Doc

[andicap]

I just want to say this is one of the most informative threads I've seen here for a long time.

So I'll add an angle to watch for in NY Bruce Levine, 2nd off the layoff -- hit several already this meet. Was 2nd yesterday and lost only because of the pace. (Belmont 2nd).

[Doc]

I just thought of another trainer I follow - David Geist. Based at Penn National, he had a string in Florida this winter, got 20 stalls at Monmouth for the meet, and he's very good with claimers and older runners. Right now he has a 32/202 (18 percent) winning rate, and I've seen him put over a lot of decent-priced horses.

Somebody asked about Todd Beattie earlier in this thread. Beattie is extremely dangerous shipping first-time starters in to Philadelphia...high win rate and they don't always get bet down. He has a farm he trains the babies on near Penn and he gets them accustomed to shipping before they make a trip to Philly or Monmouth or wherever for that first start. If he's got a first-time starter entered someplace other than Penn, you can bet he thinks a lot of the horse.

Doc

[Valuist]

How horses perform 1st after being claimed away from these trainers:

Phil Aristone 36 3/1
Christophe Clement 11 0/1
Pat Farro 35 3/6
Ben Feliciano 12 1/2
Stan Hough 9 0/0
Mike Hushion 21 0/4
Allen Iwinski 33 1/3 (not currently active, but interesting)
The Chief 13 1/1
Steve Krebs 13 1/2
Bruce Levine 32 1/5 (whew)
Cal Lynch 13 1/1
Stephen Mick 11 0/1
Lupe Preciado 15 1/3
Ramon Preciado 26 1/4
Tim Ritchey 21 2/0
Bob Seeger 36 3/4
Jane Vayders 29 1/6 (hmmm)

The WHYs:
Moving to a weaker barn?
Bad stock?
Hmmmm?

Discovering why looks like a lot of work and probably still wouldn't be definitive. It might be enough to just know who.

Are these numbers the numbers of starts followed by wins and seconds (in first race away from these barns)? I'm think you know the "hmmmmm".

[Bathless]

Are these numbers the numbers of starts followed by wins and seconds (in first race away from these barns)? I'm think you know the "hmmmmm".

Precisely. As far as 'hmmm', well....

BTW, excellent info from Doc on Beattie and shipping. Why run for $17K when you can go for $38-46 and win, eh? There were a few others famous for doing that, but I'm getting a memory check.

[Bathless]

Here are some trainers I watch for in various situations. Besides winning at 25% and above, all show a positive ROI and generous Average Win Payouts (i.e., north of $10).

MSW races - Jann Anderson, Patrick Biancone, Tom Bush, Ron Cartwright, Ed Gaudet, Clifford Sise.

Maiden Claimers - Bush, Cartwright, Joe Delozier, Carlos Garcia, Ron Glorioso, Mike Hushion, Bruce Levine, Maria Pascual, Tim Salzman, Nick Zito. Also, Butch Reid and Juan Ortiz are very hot with Maiden Claimers at the moment.

Maiden Turf - Jann Anderson, Paul Fout, John Kimmel, Lisa Lewis, Linda Rice, Cathy Robinson.

Turf Routes - Bruce Alexander and Tom Albertrani. Also, Tim Walsh has had some success with a small barn and 2 or 3 grass horses.

Turf Sprints - Eddie Broome, Linda Rice and Mark Shuman. I also like Benny Flea in these events, but he's cooled a bit.

Dirt Routes - Ron Alfano, Doc Fisher, Glorioso, Tony Reinstedler, Dickie Small.

Dirt Sprints - . Ken Furlong, mentioned previously in this thread, is interesting. Haven't seen Paul Conrad in the entries or Julio Cartagena (former Jim Crupi assistant, who might be running them at Chucktown). Ernie Cranfield is also sneaky good, but isn't running many lately. Tough category to consistently excel in and pay generous mutuels, e.g., Richard Dutrow, Biancone, Frankel, Hushion, Lake, Levine, Mick, Pino, Vaders(hmmm), Wolfendale.

Stretch Outs - Cartwright, Chris Grove, Bob Mosco, Ham Smith. Also, Tim Walsh from a small sample. Haven't seen him around; seems like he only runs in the summer and fall. I'll watch for him at CNL.

Second-time Long - Mike Gorham, Chris Grove, Bruce Levine, Patrick Reynolds, Linda Rice, Jimmy Toner. Small(45%) and Ferris Allen(40%) are deadly, but their average mutuels are around $5.20.

Cutting back in distance - Ned Allard, Bill Anderson, ET Garcia, The Chief, Mike Pino, Cynthia Reese. John Servis. Also Richard Dutrow and Bruce Levine at shorter prices.

Turf to Dirt - Mike Pino, Vicki Oliver, and Don Reeder all have AWPs of $12+. Because this seems to be a popular handicapping move with the public, good mutuels are hard to come by. I've found 27 trainers who win at a better than 25% rate with at least 4 wins, but most show 5 or 6 wins (I just rolled 2003 out of my 'current' database). Ferris Allen is the most prolific with 14 wins and 10 seconds in 55 tries, AWP $7.44.

1st after Claim: Sprints - Richard Dutrow, Kelly Breen, Scott Lake, Jerry Thurston, and the Wolf Man all hit better than 30%; only Thurston makes the $10AWP club. Hitting at a slightly lower rate (>25%) but with much better mutuels are Pat Farro, Tim Hooper, and Steve Krebs. Hooper did most of his claiming for Michael Gill. Thurston is interesting, because he's pretty much claiming them for himself -- so he's got stones and he's good -- hasn't missed too many meals as a result.

2nd after Claim: Sprints - no one in the $10 AWP club; only Kathy Demasi near $9. Richard Dutrow, Lake, Mick, Pino and Wolfendale all excel. And it's pretty much the same cast of characters who are winning 3rd after a Claim in sprints.

1st after Claim: Routes - only one $10 Club member here. The guy never misses and his AWP is over $30. I'm dropping it at that. Let's see if anyone comes up with it. Other good guys are Gary Contessa, Richard Dutrow (45%, including his assistants' wins during his 2005 suspension), Pino, Tim Ritchey(42%), Jason Servis, and Peter Walder.

2nd after Claim: Routes - Dutrow, Dom Galluscio, Ritchey, Jason Servis, Walder and Wolfendale are all excellent. Leah Gyarmati is 4-5 with an AWP of $11.32, but that's not many claims and it's not too recent. Dutrow, Ritchey, Vaders, and Wolfendale have all won better than a third of their races 3rd after a claim. After getting the big horse last year, Ritchey hasn't been claiming many lately.

Hurry-backs (8 days or less):Sprints - DCap(40%), Lake, Dutrow and Shuman are the main men, but all AWPs are in the $5.40-7.80 range.

Hurry-backs: Routes - Ferris Allen, Lake and Frank Turchi are very good. Freddy Velazquez just joined the club. The King of this move, though, is Don Reeder (37.5%). Don was winning at nearly double that rate a year or more back, but the last one I saw to bet was a nice juicy $20+ payout with COUGAR'S DEN over a year ago. There were several before that. I keep looking, though. I also like Reeder going Turf->Dirt, as mentioned above.

Repeaters - there are 50 or so guys hitting better than 25%. At 30% and up, with the $10AWP: Paul Bonaventura doesn't run many, but has a real nice touch at keeping them in form -- I've hit more than a few at nice prices; also Diane Day and Katy Voss. Also watch for Bruce Alexander, Jimmy Jerkens (Son of Chief), Danny Lopez, Mick, Ramon Preciado, Ritchey, Small, Thurston, Jimmy Toner, and John Rigattieri in MD (I understand he NEVER loses at SUF). I also heard that Lopez never loses when he's the fave and he also owns the horse, but I've never verified that.

[Valuist]

Some good stuff on there, Bathless. I'm doing a similar study on the trainers in NY, KY and Chicago. I think this type of info gives one a better idea of who's not playing on a level playing field. We all have our suspicions but this is at least some sort of proof. I'm also tracking the change in speed figures when horses leave a particular trainer's barn.

[Doc]

Wow, fantastic info, Bathless. You jogged my memory on some other trainers I always watch, including Cynthia Reese and Clifford Sise. Thanks for posting it!

Doc :jump:

[Bathless]

You've got to look at trainers at DEL. When I researched the NJ tracks, I found 30-35 trainers winning fully half the races. At DEL, I think you can count them on your fingers:Lake, Ritchey, Pino, Wolfendale (who's cold), Steve Klesaris (who's en fuego), Thurston, Tony Dutrow. Zimmerman is gone, but Ron Alfano just joined the club and Sheppard, Pascual, Gorham and Matz always have to be respected. Throw in Pletcher and John Servis, who now keeps a string there, and, without crunching the numbers, I think I probably just accounted for more than 40% of all winners at DEL. I consider it a good day when I find a single play at DEL, and if I do, I'll also look at the races before and after, because of the rolling doubles.

I think the MD trainers are the guys to watch and I think the current PIM meeting is holding up pretty well, despite Beyer and others throwing dirt on MD racing. I'm always promising myself to pay more attention to MD, but I prefer PHA and, especially, MTH. I think MTH is much deeper, trainer-wise, although I notice, after compiling all this stuff, that DEL and MD trainers dominate these niches I follow. I rarely bet NY; I follow it mostly because lots of NY trainers ship to NJ and Dutrow, Levine, Pletcher and a few others keep strings there. For the most part, I play around these guys, who get heavily bet.

[Bathless]

Some of my old favorites -- Joe Pierce being a great example -- no longer win like they once did. These guys slow down their operations, lose owners, and sometimes lose their eye. Sonny Hine and John Zimmerman died. Iwinski quit training (except for turf racing, I don't think he had any holes in his game).

Have to identify the up and comers. And who will know what to do when he gets the good horse, like Servis and Ritchey did? Those guys became overnight successes after training for 20+ years. I'm not that optimistic about Kelly Breen, who worked for Big Ben Perkins probably 12-15 years ago. He won a MTH title, but has Perkins rubbed off on him enough ?? Anyway, who's out there? Who are the sharp assistants ready to make the move?

A Ben Perkins, Sr. tale:

One day, he claimed a filly for New Farm, who bred a lot of nice animals and also spent a ton of $$$ at the sales. The claim was somewhere in the $16-25K range. When I heard the announcement, I said 'WHAT ???'. I checked that night to verify that I heard it correctly. Then I started wondering why. Perkins never, ever claimed horses and neither did New Farm, who certainly didn't need any more, since they probably had about 150 of them. Possible broodmare? I didn't know. I got my answer not 5 days later. Perkins moved her up aggressively into a Classified Allowance, few in the joint bet the filly, and she romped. And all I was holding was... :bang:

My favorite claim to this day. And why I always look at hurry-backs.

[Bathless]

I mention Volk previously because Brad Thomas had a lot of praise for him and my buddy cashed a nice ticket on PUSHED last fall at MTH. According to Brad, Volk's M/O is supposed to be the rehabilitation of banged-up stock. He doesn't necessarily claim them -- but he winds up with them.

After examining the results from a bunch of his runners, not much jumps out, except this guy gets no respect at the windows, even when his horses perform well. Volk claimed PUSHED from Jane Cibelli and got 2nd in his first out at 10/1 in an Alwc/OClm NW3X. He stepped him up next out to Alwc/OClm NW4X and he won at 8.4/1.

He had another named BISCAY APPEAL. Won an open $7.5K claimer at AQU and paid $7.60. Two weeks later, Volk stretched him out and he ran 3rd at the same level. Two weeks after that, he cuts him back to 6f, his winning distance, same level, and he wins again, paying $17.40 this time.

So all I could really come up with is that his critters don't get bet, even if they're showing decent form. Guy wins about 15% overall, is much better with sprinters (19%), and, when they're ready, runs them back in 2-3 weeks. And, FWIW, does real well in straight 3YO races. In fact, just placed in the Woodlawn S. on the grass with 3YO EXTRA BEND. Go-to jock is Pimentel, but that will change, since Julian is riding at DEL this year and Volk hasn't ventured down there in a while.

Jane Cibelli is interesting (in a way), although I haven't seen her name since last fall. I think she once worked for Willard Thompson. I've got her with 124 starters and only 4 wins (3.2%). But I remember cashing a really nice Place ticket on one of her critters, probably last year. Anyway, sure enough. From 124 starters, 25 Seconds !!!

Anyone have more on Volk ???

[Doc]

Hey Bathless, a couple more to add to the guys that don't win like they used to are "Stormin'" Norman Pointer and Bob Durso at Monmouth, both of whom had heart surgery earlier this year. You can see the changing of the guard there...I used to love to bet Juan Serey when he was going great guns...now he can't find the winner's circle to save his life. I used to get a big charge out of seeing Serey and all his help (most of them were his relatives) wearing the same blue coats with the stablename across the back going to the windows. He won with some improbable horses, that's for sure.

Young Ben Perkins is still a force to be reckoned with, especially first-time out. Last year at Mth. you could even get a decent price on some of his horses, because a lot of the money would be siphoned off to Todd Pletcher firsters.

I was at Mth. opening day and all of Jim Ryerson's horses looked fantastic. I mean, their coats gleamed, they came into the paddock prancing, their manes and tails were groomed to a "T", and he found the winner's circle, too. He gets overlooked a lot, but I like to bet him.

Doc :ThmbUp:

[Bathless]

Doc, Benny is pretty fair stretching them out, too. I find this ironic, because I think it was the only thing his dad didn't do so well. I always played against Big Ben's stretch-outs and don't ever remember getting stung. But that could have been because New Farm was breeding for speed in those days.

I knew Durso had the bypass; didn't know about Pointer. There's a trainer I could never wrap my brain around, and he probably beat me about 100 times as a result.

Ryerson is a trainer who has shown he knows what to do with a good horse -- and under very trying circumstances, too. He's had pretty good stock the last few years. Has been kicking butt with his 2YOs. Do you know if PARK AVENUE BALL is still in training?

[Valuist]

One more name to add: Larry Jones. I think this is the first year he's been based out east. He's usually at OP, PrM and Ellis.

[Doc]

Bathless: Here's the skinny on Park Avenue Ball (courtest of Equibase) -

8th race - Calder Race Course - April 29, 2006
Race Name: Ponche H. Off at: 4:01
Race Type: Stakes Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Value of Race: $94,000 Distance: Six Furlongs
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast Winning Time: 1:11.48
PgmHorseJockeyWinPlaceShow
3 Nightmare Affair (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6771542&sap=HPR) Eddie Castro 4.00 3.00 2.10
4 Kaufy Machine (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6497720&sap=HPR) Jose Lezcano 5.80 2.40
2 Park Avenue Ball (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6660454&sap=HPR) Christopher P. DeCarlo 2.10
Also ran: 5 - Universal Form (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6117807&sap=HPR) , 1 - Paradise Dancer (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=5350618&sap=HPR) , 7 - Miracle Man (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6473465&sap=HPR) Scratched horses: Lucky Frolic (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=6506848&sap=HPR)

[Bathless]

First race back?

[Doc]

Yes, first back. He showed speed until the head of the stretch, then faded down the lane. Overall, a good effort.

Doc

[cash2]

hey what a great thread this has turned into! thanks a ton bathless for sharing all this. some of it i knew, a lot of it i didn't, and a lot of it was "suspicions confirmed!" not much to add as you've covered the ground pretty well. julio cartagena. he may have hung it up. his daughter keisey is training now. jerry thurston you mentioned. good claiming trainer, horses run well fresh, points for delaware.

steve klesaris. don't be afraid to bet the droppers from this guy. steve likes to take the trash out. at the beginning of the del meet he may be making room for the babies. last year at the end of the meet it was the klesaris klearance sale. we'll take the fat purse, you can have the horse. steve's real mo is to look for that 2 year old prospect that he can resell at a hefty prospect. eg, Booklet and Buckle Down Ben.

take another look at bob seeger. his game seemed to really pick up over the past year. (of course, capanas off may have had something to do with that!)
i ran a formulator query on him for the past 12 months at the pha. interesting... male horses only he was something like 20% winners with a plus roi of 24%. i've always liked what i call the seeger bottom dropper. horse is either hitting a new lifetime low or (preferably) the lowest level to which it can be dropped. dull previous race is a plus.

hey Doc, i remember Chico T. very game, a useful horse as they say. you seem very well informed about the pha, so let me run by you what little i know about richard vega. a few years ago he got ten stalls at del and he ended up in the same barn as a friend of mine. remembering those glory years when you could just bet every vega horse and make a flat 20% profit, i asked him about vega. he's crazy was his first reply but then he mentioned that vega's assistant was one of the barrera brothers (yeah laz and oscar. how many of them were there?) anyway this guy was pretty sick and he did say that he didn't know how long he would be around. turns out he wasn't around very long and neither was vega who cleared out before the meet was halfway over. always wondered if the barrera brother was responsible for whatever success the barn had. kind of instructive as to how quickly fortunes can change in this game

[hurrikane]

this is the first real trainer thread in a long long time. At least one that isn't talking about trainers cheating.

Lots of good names up here, some I have never heard of. very impressive.

Bath is right though. It changes fast and you have to keep on top of it. That may be why the trn angles are profitable. Most don't have the energy to keep on top of things.

One thing I'm doing a lot of research on right now is sex. Not me...the horses. Seems there is a big difference in the way males and females respond to training and it's looking like certain trainers are good with some and not with others.....

[Bathless]

take another look at bob seeger. his game seemed to really pick up over the past year.

Give me some old time Rock and Roll. That kinda music just soothes m' soul....

Like Norman Pointer, Seeger usually leaves me scratching my head. And you're right -- he has picked it up.

Sprinters or routers, first off the claim his numbers are nearly identical, but miserable. Seeger rarely wins. His claims start to improve from there. Second race, identical improvement (sprt/rte), and you can get decent mutuels (with a $2ROI @$2.50) second time out.

I looked at about 35 of his claims. Lots of 5ths and 6ths in that first race. In some cases involving 'better' claimers ($16K for Philly), the first spot was often an allowance race, where the horse was usually overmatched. This was followed by a claiming race where his horses were more competitive; some won. Overall, especially with bottom claimers, most were dropped into a lower level of competition in the 2nd race. There were only two exceptions I could find, i.e., going up in class, and the payouts were generous, naturally($18-22). These were allowance wins.

Nothing else that jumps out about Seeger, except maybe he's solid in turf sprints (but not so good in grass routes), wins about 1 in 4 going turf to dirt, but has a fairly dismal record in alwc, alwc/OClm, and stakes. As a rule, stick to claiming races with Seeger, unless some other handicapping factor tells you a horse has a strong chance to win an alwc event. These trainer stats don't operate in a vacuum.

(of course, capanas off may have had something to do with that!)There was a time when Santagata off was the most powerful move in all of sports.:D Lately, Seeger's winners have been with Pennington or Mello aboard.

[Stevie Belmont]

Park Avenue Ball is getting ready for Monmouth. He has worked recently. The race at Calder was a good conditioning race. Ive liked this horse from the first day I saw him break his maiden. He beat Whos The Cowboy that day, and I though he was good in the defeat. Both have turned out to be solid horses.

[Valuist]

Larry Jones may open a few eyes today at Pimlico. He's got three live horses in the stakes: Wildcat Bettie B, Gasia and Josh's Madelyn.

[Doc]

Bathless, I haven't seen Willy Barrera (Vega's assistant) around lately, maybe this is why he hasn't been winning. I just think he doesn't have many horses, though.

A trainer who has been heating up at Philly is Armand Correnti...son of old-time trainer Tony Correnti.

Valuist, I love betting J. Larry Jones. He popped with Hello Liberty in a NY stakes recently, and he really knows how to spot his horses.

[Bathless]

Vega has only run 1 horse in the last month - HIGH MARKS. Won 2 of 2 in $4K conditioned claimers. His (or Barrera's) horses usually did well off the shelf, but I'm going from memory here.

[Bathless]

John and Jason's brother-in-law has a string at MTH this summer. I recall him coming up maybe 10 or 12 years ago, but then disappearing after a couple of weeks. My info on Plesa is limited, but he looks to be pretty solid, overall.

He won a few races last spring and fall at BEL, and ran 1 or 2 with about a third of his starters at last year's SAR meeting (lots of seconds).

I mention him because he ran 2 last weekend at MTH and both hit the board at big odds. Might be a sign that he's come north with some ready horses. He just might not have NY-level horses, but they could fit just fine in NJ. Worth watching.

Anyone know Plesa from FLA?

[CapperLou]

He always did well in Florida and was highly respected here. When he decided to try some in New York--I agree--he was probably over his head considering his stock.

Now then, New Jersey is a horse of another color where Plesa is concerned; I would think. I'm going to keep a close eye on him at MTH--I will not be too shocked if he does well at this meet.

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Thanks for all the info in this thread--have learned a lot about the PHA trainers and the shipper specialists etc.

[Bathless]

Larry Jones may open a few eyes today at Pimlico. He's got three live horses in the stakes: Wildcat Bettie B, Gasia and Josh's Madelyn.

Wildcat Bettie B was a pretty easy winner of the Miss Preakness.

Just caught the post-race interview with Larry -- Jim Nabors in a cowboy hat.

[Bathless]

Someone mentioned the Houghtons. I'm starting to get dizzy from this stuff, so the reference might be in this thread or it might be in the female trainer thread.

Well Bernie just went on my Watch List. In the 13th at PIM today, he saddled WHAT A WARRIOR, who won by neck at nearly 18/1 over the Small-trained 6/5 fave. WAW is a 3YO gelded son of CROWD PLEASER out of a LORD GAYLORD mare and his feet hit the ground for the first time in Maryland. This was Houghton's 4th Maiden Turf winner in 6 tries, with one 2nd. That's a pretty good job of picking your spots. WAW ran 2nd last out, beaten 1/2 length by the even-money fave from JayeffB/Goldberg/Bravo at ATL, an effort which the bettors' dismissed/ignored today.

Another thing about Houghton's 4 wins: Santagata rode 1 of them, the only sprint winner. The other 3 were all Santagata OFF.:D

Houghton has been running about 75% of the time at PHA, but lately has been splitting his time between PHA and DEL. I checked the condition book at those tracks and turf racing begins at both next weekend. If TBH shows up in the entries in a Maiden Turfer, he will get my attention. Watch out for those funky 7 1/2 furlong turf races at PHA; they start about 2 jumps from the turn.

[wonatthewire1]

Have a tough time catching this one's winners...his runners that "look" in form to me don't run and those that look terrible on paper do well > when I figure it out, that will be reversed! Another guy who is in a similar vein (at least with me) is Ed Coletti, I'll catch a couple of good long-shots then nothing for 6-7 months until the streak happens again.

Betancourt has had a good first half of the year and it looks like Ron Dandy is sticking with Philly this year rather than heading back to Boston for the summer.

A couple of trainers that I've had good luck with in the past but they've gone really cold: Riviezzo, Andrea Gonzalez, and Randy Allen.

In prior summers, I've had success with Pam Shavelson who seems to point to the summer meet. Watch it if she ships to DEL or MTH, the horse is well meant.

[Tom]

This is one of the best threads in awhile...thanks, guys!

[cash2]

geesh bathless, i keep thinking i'm done with with this thread and you just keep showing up. i mentioned the houghtons but it was in reference to ronnie the dad who i thought was a great guy to claim from. had good stock but never really cranked them up. i could be mistaken but i do believe that ron houghton actually did win a grade 1 turf event maybe 25 years ago. bernie could be a whole different ballgame. thanks i'll keep an eye on him. as i said that farm has always had potential runners.

interesting aside... the houghtons don't run many claimers at del anymore. a few years ago ronnie houghton came up to mike pino and said "so, gonna take everything i've got?" shows you why the fields at del are so small. all these guys living on their day rates don't want want to lose their barn to the sharks.

great thread, but only a matter of time till the troll showed up. coca cola and bush's beans? gimme a shasta and vankamp's, just as good and half the price. good to know that the guys living under the bridge are going first class.

[Bathless]

interesting aside... the houghtons don't run many claimers at del anymore. a few years ago ronnie houghton came up to mike pino and said "so, gonna take everything i've got?" shows you why the fields at del are so small. all these guys living on their day rates don't want want to lose their barn to the sharks.

There's a good side to it. A friend made a bad claim a while back and wanted out, but nobody at MTH would touch the filly. Put her in a van and took her to DEL. Van was empty for the ride back. Haven't heard of the filly since.

[RaceIsClosed]

The Mid-Atlantic game is ruled by trainers, and to some extent, the jocks. Delaware is the worst, though a lot of NYRA trainers have set up shop there and do well. Some of them even run at Pha now.

Generally, there is a crew of "A" and "B" trainers who are threats to win at a price as long as one of their "betters" isn't also in the race. Each trainer tends to carve out a niche that doesn't conflict with the others, and most of the "B" trainers win only when the "A" trainers aren't present, or if the "A" trainer wants to yank a 3-5 shot and let one of the "B" guys win at 20-1.

If you follow trainers, you'll also do much better in the Mid-Atlantic if you tie it to pace handicapping rather than speed figures, as these horses rarely run their best, and tend to do so only when it's financially justified (i.e., nice purse or long odds).

[hurrikane]

I agree RIC. trainers have been running the mid atlantic since I started. I'm getting that feeling about Texas too.

Anyone playing texas trainers?

[cash2]

posted by race is closed

most of the "B" trainers win only when the "A" trainers aren't present, or if the "A" trainer wants to yank a 3-5 shot and let one of the "B" guys win at 20-1.

this was posted about delaware park. and a specific example of the of the latter part of this statement would be...???

[Bathless]

Here's a guy who would win maybe one race a year. The fact that he was the trainer of a horse made the handicapping process just a little easier -- just mark a big X through the horse.

But from his last 4 starters at PHA, Victor has 2 wins and 2 seconds, 3 of them at odds of 10/1 or higher.

What's going on? Did Victor get religion or something? :confused: