King Beyer's latest

[cj]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/15/AR2006051501492.html?sub=AR

[speedking]

What a revolutionary concept he has brought to the masses. The inside horses will save ground and not travel as far! Amazing!

[cj]

I've harped on this for years here. It is just plain silly to take those outside posts.

[Overlay]

Perhaps cavalry charges like the Derby would be an anomaly, but when Winning at the Races came out in 1979, the only statistically significant correlations that Quirin found between post position and winning probability were positive ones for post position 1 in dirt sprints of six furlongs or less (1.22 impact value) and two-turn dirt routes of 1 to 1-1/8 miles (1.44 impact value) on tracks that were at least one mile in circumference, and for post positions 1-3 in two-turn turf routes of 1 to 1-1/8 miles (cumulative impact value of 1.34).

[twindouble]

What a revolutionary concept he has brought to the masses. The inside horses will save ground and not travel as far! Amazing!

He didn't say anything close to what your inferring.

Quote; It is a racing truism that "the rail is the shortest way home," and a mountain of statistical evidence proves that outside post positions are undesirable in races run around two turns.

[Valuist]

I'm convinced that in the trainers test, the test all trainers must pass to get a license, there is a question that involves post position selection for the Derby.

Q: You are a Derby trainer and have a runner. Its your turn to select a post and your choices are:

a) post two
b) post five
c) post eleven
d) post nineteen

Most trainers answer "D". According to the test, that answer is correct, on the grounds that the horse will have to travel further, and thus achieve greater cardiovascular benefit.

[speedking]

He didn't say anything close to what your inferring.

Quote; It is a racing truism that "the rail is the shortest way home," and a mountain of statistical evidence proves that outside post positions are undesirable in races run around two turns.

I don't know what you mean. The entire article is based on the fact that the inside horses will save ground and the outside horses will lose ground. That is not merely a racing truism, but common sense.

speedking

[twindouble]

I don't know what you mean. The entire article is based on the fact that the inside horses will save ground and the outside horses will lose ground. That is not merely a racing truism, but common sense.

speedking


I didn't get the impression he was announcing some break threw in handicapping.

[the little guy]

I didn't get the impression he was announcing some break threw in handicapping.

Sometimes I just can't take it....




breakthrough

[Wiley]

The point of the article is that most trainers have not figured this out and continue to line up to the perception that an outside post will give their horse a chance to stay clear of trouble. Yes this can be true in a big field race but at the same time in a race with similar paced types like this Derby, BD was most assured a wide trip around both turns because he was not fast enough to clear the field and many others inside of him had a similar running style so a logjam to the first turn was a guarantee for the marginal E's and EP types.

I don't know the stats on post position and the Derby but I think at one time a horse running out of post 1 at CD in the Derby did need to come out a bit just to clear the inner rail, if they ran a straight line they would go straight into the inner railing, so this is why post 1 used to be a problem post in the Derby. Don't know if that is still the case.
I am guessing post 1 in the Derby has a lower impact value then those noted by Overlay from Quirin's study.

[JustRalph]

Sometimes I just can't take it....

breakthrough

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[twindouble]

Sometimes I just can't take it....




breakthrough:lol:

Come on now, give me a break. I have made some progress, believe it or not. I will take note though.

[Tom]

Any db guys out there able to verify this controversial idea? :bang:

[kenwoodallpromos]

For me the article was interesting for the most part, especially the quote about Brother John having run his best race, whatever that leaves in the tank for the TC.
The Post is not just read by 20 year handicappers, so maybe right in the middle of the Derby/Preakness he may catch a few who this is new to.

[speedking]

The Post is not just read by 20 year handicappers, so maybe right in the middle of the Derby/Preakness he may catch a few who this is new to.

I'm guilty as charged on that count. The sarcasm was not entirely called for.

speedking

[rastajenk]

Maybe it's time to re-examine the concept of picking your own post in the first place. I think the novelty wore off after the first couple of years, kind of like inter-league scheduling in baseball. I'd rather see my faves stuck on the outside by a random draw over boneheaded decisions by their connections.

[blind squirrel]

i think BEYER makes a valid point.all week long we've
heard hall of fame nominee ALEX SOLIS{0 for ever in ky derby]
whine that the race was lost at the post draw.

why didn't he voice his opinion to HENDRICKS and take 1 or
3?....stop making lame excuses!

[Valuist]

Maybe it's time to re-examine the concept of picking your own post in the first place. I think the novelty wore off after the first couple of years, kind of like inter-league scheduling in baseball. I'd rather see my faves stuck on the outside by a random draw over boneheaded decisions by their connections.

I think most trainers and owners would agree with that. Unfortunately, money rules everything and the Eastern Seaboard Programming Network is involved.

[Turfday]

We both recognize that Quirin's study was done pre-1979 in order to publish it then. It's close to 30 years ago.

I have these comments regarding his impact values regarding post position. Not to mention that track surface change.

Did he take into account FIELD SIZE? If not, how can of us rightfully and accurately assume that post one in a six-horse field has the same impact value as post one in a 12-horse field?

Moreover, that same post one in a six-horse field at one particular track may not at all have the same impact value as post one in a six-horse field at another track.

My point being is that different field sizes change the dynamics of a race. Period. Comparing six-horse fields to larger fields is like comparing apples to artichokes.

Personally, my very, very completely unscientific "research" has shown that as field sizes shorten (dwindle), post position becomes less and less important.

I trust that very few on this board will believe me or will take heed to the following:

As an overall generality at North American tracks in field sizes of 11-12 horses fields at the most commonly run distance of 6 furlongs, the horses breaking from posts five and six perform below expectations in relation to their odds.

Not the rail, not the outside.

The horses in the middle are more apt to be bumped or sandwiched at the break and they have to contend with horses from the inside moving slightly off the rail and horses outside of them angling in towards the middle or the rail. Hence, they are also more prone to getting shuffled back.

At Southern California tracks, tracks I follow, public perception is the at a flat-mile, there is an edge to the horses drawn inside. Wrong. In big fields of nine or ten horses, despite the "quick run" into the first turn, horses drawn in the nine and ten posts perform as well as and in most case better than their expected odds.

[JustRalph]

i think BEYER makes a valid point.all week long we've
heard hall of fame nominee ALEX SOLIS{0 for ever in ky derby]
whine that the race was lost at the post draw.

why didn't he voice his opinion to HENDRICKS and take 1 or
3?....stop making lame excuses!

I don't think he raised his voice because it is not his place. When do you think he should have done it? Bring it up to Hendricks in front of the owners? or how about one of the strategy sessions the owner and Hendricks has, and Solis is never invited? I think you are over thinking how much input he had.......I bet Hendricks never asked either........

[kev]

This from a HTR report:Qualifying to test, horse had a 7 or 8 Quirin speed pt, horse was ranked #1 in fr1 or ev paceline mode 5. Horse had the ( * ) designation for likely lead runner.

Horse broke the furthest outside post.
Dirt sprints: 414 horses qualifying 130 winners 31%

Horse broke the furthest inside.
Dirt sprints: 366 horses and 112 winners 31%

Any post post-position 2,666 horses and 609 winners for 23%

Horse broke the furthest outside post.
Dirt routes 389 horses only 64 winners for 16%

The inside post in dirt routes 405 horses 108 winners for 26%

[Tom]

Try that test when the field size is >15.

[TurfRuler]

How many...how how many....how how how many....how many...outside horses won on the inner track at Aqueduct? At all distances?

[blind squirrel]

I don't think he raised his voice because it is not his place. When do you think he should have done it? Bring it up to Hendricks in front of the owners? or how about one of the strategy sessions the owner and Hendricks has, and Solis is never invited? I think you are over thinking how much input he had.......I bet Hendricks never asked either........


what do you mean it's not his place?who's riding the horse?at the INDY
500 don't you think BOBBY RAHAL discusses race strategy with DANICA
PATRICK?..i know many people{BEYER}think jockey's are "pinheads"but
they do have an impact on a race.

[Overlay]

Bob Selvin,

I don't have the data I need at hand right now, but I'll comment on your post tomorrow. (In the meantime, though, thank you for your observations.)

[Indulto]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/15/AR2006051501492.html?sub=ARCJ,
Thanks for the link.

I got a kick out of Beyer's boosting his competitor, Brown, by granting him ground-loss guru status.

Are your Derby figures for Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Sweetnothernsaint available yet?

[twindouble]

My point being is that different field sizes change the dynamics of a race. Period. Comparing six-horse fields to larger fields is like comparing apples to artichokes.Quote; Turfday;

I agree, plus taking into account the running styles of horses that are competing today coming out of large fields into short fields or the other way around also considering their prior post position, verses today's. Not withstanding the fact that some horses are more apt to have troubled races in large fields, not likely in short ones.

In other words your confronted with a very different race even if the some of the same horses are entered with in a shorter field going shorter distance, like a mile 1/4 to mile 3/16.


T.D.

[JustRalph]

what do you mean it's not his place?who's riding the horse?at the INDY
500 don't you think BOBBY RAHAL discusses race strategy with DANICA
PATRICK?..i know many people{BEYER}think jockey's are "pinheads"but
they do have an impact on a race.

What I am saying is, they didn't ask................and if he isn't asked? How do you suppose he brings it up? And if he did, would it over-rule the owner ? Nope.........

[Tom]

How many...how how many....how how how many....how many...outside horses won on the inner track at Aqueduct? At all distances?

I did just 2-turn routes, inner dirt track, 2005/2006 season:

Number races - 317
Number outside post winners - 39 12%
Number outside post win/place - 78 24%

Tough to blindly throw out of exactas

[cj]

CJ,
Thanks for the link.

I got a kick out of Beyer's boosting his competitor, Brown, by granting him ground-loss guru status.

Are your Derby figures for Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Sweetnothernsaint available yet?

Try this link (http://www.pacefigures.com/prk0520.htm).

[toetoe]

"He didn't say anything close to what you're inferring."

It sounds very close, to me.

tlg,

I'm assuming you did NOT have to look up the spelling. :ThmbUp:

[Overlay]

In response to the last post by Bob Selvin (Turfday):

As additional information on Quirin’s data, judging from the way he presented it, he apparently considered the size of the track to be the controlling variable. The only stipulations he specified for the findings where one or more inside post positions were found to have a statistically significant advantage were that the post position data for dirt sprints was drawn from dirt tracks that were “one mile in circumference”; the data for dirt routes was drawn from dirt tracks that were “at least one mile in circumference”; and the data for turf routes was drawn from races of 1 to 1-1/8 miles that typically started in front of the stands, and were run around two turns. He did not reveal the actual track or tracks from which he drew his samples, nor did he comment on whether there were any irregularities in the applicability of his findings owing to varying field sizes. As he presented the data, race distance and track contours were the only factors examined.

His sample broken down by field size was as follows:

Dirt Sprints (2,516):

35 five-horse fields
106 six-horse fields
167 seven-horse fields
183 eight-horse fields
139 nine-horse fields
779 ten-horse fields
380 eleven-horse fields
727 twelve-horse fields

Dirt Routes (2,233)

5 four-horse fields
21 five-horse fields
137 six-horse fields
210 seven-horse fields
596 eight-horse fields
435 nine-horse fields
414 ten-horse fields
154 eleven-horse fields
261 twelve-horse fields

Turf Routes (487)

1,461 total starters from post positions 1-3
1,450 total starters from post positions 4-6
1,043 total starters from post positions 7-9
278 total starters from post positions 10-12

[CryingForTheHorses]

I've harped on this for years here. It is just plain silly to take those outside posts.

I agree the rail is the shortest way home with a speedhorse going long,IF he makes the lead and can keep it..The rail is also the shortest way home for a sprinter. The only disadvantage either type of hrse can have is when the rail is deep and you see horses winning in the 3 path..Very easy to get bogged down on the rail with a closer.The best trip is when a horse can keep clean and out of trouble.

[46zilzal]

The 88 Breeder's Cup: not a single winner came off the rail at CD. Some riders picked up on early in the card and exploited it: Laffit with Is It True over Easy Goer, but then some missed it: Julie Krone took the speed Forty Niner to the rail and he finished out.

[Tom]

Try this link (http://www.pacefigures.com/prk0520.htm).

I really like what I see for Like Now.
Bro D looks like a classic regression pattern - top, within 2 of top, out.
X-X-0, or something like that.

[Tom]

I agree the rail is the shortest way home with a speedhorse going long,IF he makes the lead and can keep it..The rail is also the shortest way home for a sprinter. The only disadvantage either type of hrse can have is when the rail is deep and you see horses winning in the 3 path..Very easy to get bogged down on the rail with a closer.The best trip is when a horse can keep clean and out of trouble.

I can say for sure I have never, ever, seen the 20 path deep and tiring! :D

[JustRalph]

I can say for sure I have never, ever, seen the 20 path deep and tiring! :D

at Beulah park the 20 path is on a local highway.......... :lol:

[Tom]

at Beulah park the 20 path is on a local highway.......... :lol:

I used to drive it a lot when Honda was a customer - I always found it "speed favoring" ;)

[KingChas]

DRF Comment Line-Brother Derek 9W

I having trouble with this when I watch the race from ground level I agree somewhat.But when I watch the view from above I disagree.Looks like only the start before he moved in.Is this an optical illsusion or what?I'm not debating the horse was wide , just how wide? :confused:

[Valuist]

Mid to late 80s at Hawthorne after the weather got below freezing. The optimal paths would be the 8 path and OUTWARD. Sometimes 6 or 7 different horses would lead in the stretch and usually who was widest would win. They finally figured out how to get rid of that insane outside bias.

[toetoe]

46z,

I'm confused. I thought you were saying that no winner eschewed ("off") the rail, i.e., every winner stayed on the rail. Then the JK reference made it sound as if you meant "came from an inside post." :confused:

[46zilzal]

46z,

I'm confused. I thought you were saying that no winner eschewed ("off") the rail, i.e., every winner stayed on the rail. Then the JK reference made it sound as if you meant "came from an inside post." :confused:
all the winners ran in the 3 path or wider

[toetoe]

Thank you. :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

The 88 Breeder's Cup: not a single winner came off the rail at CD.

If I remember correctly, both Personal Ensign and Alysheba won w/wide closing moves in the stretch.

[Tom]

1988,,,,uh, aren't we going back a little too far for a track profile?

[JPinMaryland]

DRF Comment Line-Brother Derek 9W

I having trouble with this when I watch the race from ground level I agree somewhat.But when I watch the view from above I disagree.Looks like only the start before he moved in.Is this an optical illsusion or what?I'm not debating the horse was wide , just how wide? :confused:

He's prolly 7 or 8 w. last time I saw the video, but I havent watched too carefully. What does your third sentence mean, by the way? "..only the start before he moved in." What??

[KingChas]

JP, meant from the airiel view,Of course coming out of the gate he was real wide.I'm talking after the 1st 100 yds or so shall I say he tucked :D into 9 wide.After the first turn from the air he seemed 5+6 even possibly 4 wide until the stretch.From the regular ground shot he looked a lot wider.
Hence the air shot optical illusion question.That's all. ;)

[cnollfan]

As an overall generality at North American tracks in field sizes of 11-12 horses fields at the most commonly run distance of 6 furlongs, the horses breaking from posts five and six perform below expectations in relation to their odds.



Agree. A friend of mine and excellent handicapper calls this a "pinch bias."