Question about Superfecta and The Derby

[Conquer]

Given the gigantic payout of the superfectas during the Triple Crown races, is it even possible and if so how much would it cost to box the whole field?

Assume it cost $20K, you would win like 90 grand.

I know it may be a stupid questions, but this is the ignorance of a newbie here :)

[rrpic6]

The field had 20 horses, so to box the field would be 20 times 19 times 18 times times 17 times 2=$232,560. Since the pool contained 8.7 million dollars this year, theoretically you could have shown a profit by doing just that.

[LemonSoupKid]

and when the top 2 favorites come in, you get a nice $150,000 loss

[KingChas]

I'm not following your advice on betting patterns LSK.On the other thread you boast of your triple crown show betting.You are risking $1000 to win $200.I would feel safer playing the poker machines at the local club for that. :confused:

Nothin Personal Sir-(IMHO) ;)

[twindouble]

I'm not following your advice on betting patterns LSK.On the other thread you boast of your triple crown show betting.You are risking $1000 to win $200.I would feel safer playing the poker machines at the local club for that. :confused:

Nothin Personal Sir-(IMHO) ;)

I have yet to see anyone being successfull attempting to buy the race, ESP in the gimmicks like the super, that show bet isn't as risky Key wheels are much better to cover more horses. Plus I think investing that kind of money your also better off in the picks, 4,5,and 6.

T.D.

[LemonSoupKid]

First off, of course no one is successful buying a race. Giacomo-Closing Argument comes 1 time in a century in a big money race and people act like it'll happen again in 50 years. It won't. People always are over-affected by long prices.

It was actually $300, King Chas. And here's the real issue: Would you take a 30% return on your money if your horse had a 99% chance or better of being successful? Of course you would. The only way Smarty doesn't come top 3 is if he breaks a leg. And that wasn't going to happen. What people do who don't have big sacks in these examples is two-fold: they worry and therefore don't win easy money. Interestingly enough, my calculated expected return on that race was exactly 30%.

LSKid

[KingChas]

I don't buy races and I don't bridgejump.The risk of either is not worth the profit. ;)

And if you want a sure thing I have a $50.00 exacta box ticket
still in my posssession..................Go For Wand\Bayakoa

[toetoe]

Conquistador,

A great question and one too few handycrappers ask before even deciding whether to play the Stooperfecta. Consider:

(n + 1) / (n - 3) - 1 = increase in combinations between n and (n + 1).

A field of twelve has 12/8 as many combinations as a field of 11. 50% more!!!!

A field of 20 has 20/16 as many as a field of 19. 25%.

20: 116,280 combos. Very rare.

12: 11,880 combos. Slightly more than 1/10 as many as a field of 20.

[Conquer]

What does bridgejumping mean?

[Red Knave]

What does bridgejumping mean?It refers to what a bettor might do if he bet the rent, car payment and grocery money on a cinch to show and then watched it lose. Also used to describe a race where that happens. Where there was an extraordinary amount bet to show on a horse that finished out of the money so that the show prices on the in-the-money horses are much higher than they should be.