Preakness May Be One For The Ages

[Shamin2nd]

I'm envisioning Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Sweetnorthernsaint three across at the top of the stretch... Any chance Barbaro gets knocked off?

[toetoe]

The only variable that occurs to me is BD's rider. Either he's been very unlucky lately, or he's been riding scared. I judge him only from a parimutuel standpoint. I'm not exactly pleased with Desormeaux, either. I think all three colts/geldings may be peaking a week from Saturday, which is good.

[NYPlayer]

I'm envisioning Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Sweetnorthernsaint three across at the top of the stretch... Any chance Barbaro gets knocked off?

Barbaro might still have one more peak effort left in him before he tails off. The Preak is only 2 weeks after the Derby. That kind of sets him up a bit, but I don't think I'm going to be too keen to bet against him. I think this talk of him winning the TC is off base though.

SNS and BD are the horses that would do it, but I won't bet SNS again ulness I get 10-1 (maybe that'll happen), but I may actually need higher odds. I'm not sure he can make an adequate recovery in only two weeks. I like him better for the Belmont. BD is a tougher read.

[toetoe]

Two weeks' rest is short, but I always wonder whether running on vapors in the KD bodes well for the Preakness effort. After all, every horse is either coming into form or going off form, to some degree. Barbaro should retain his form, relatively speaking. No great advance and no big bounce. I think 'Saint will make a big positive move, but if he doesn't, Barbaro may romp. That may be what we've seen the last three years --- horses holding their form while the competition just couldn't hang. Smarty looked awesome, but was runnerup RH10 really a runner at that point?

[LemonSoupKid]

my usage of Dr. Z's (with my TI-81 calculator programmed) system has been 5-5 this year on Derby preps, and had NO recommendations for the Derby. I'll be all over it on the 20th, rest assured

LSK

[JohnNUtah]

He just wiped out a 20 horse field by a bigger margin than any horse in many, many years, 50 to be exact as I recall. Plus, he did it with ease and was never asked for his best, just that one nudge at the head of the stretch which destroyed the others.

One of the oldest rules in this sport is NEVER bet a horse to do something he hasn't done before, in this case that means lose a race! All of this talk of him losing is silly, get on board and enjoy it. After all the talk about Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, etc., you finally get to enjoy a real race horse who has NEVER lost ( I think Alex was the most overrated horse in many moons-never once beat older but he is worshipped in many circles, in large part for his nearly falling in this race last year).

I expect total devastation of the field this out by Barbaro, gonna try to load up on the exotics. I think Bro Derek may be the key for the tri, looks best for the place spot to me.

JMHO and good luck to you all.:)

[pandy]

Win or lose, Barbaro will be an enormous underlay in the Preakness.

Pandy

[JPinMaryland]

One of the oldest rules in this sport is NEVER bet a horse to do something he hasn't done before, in this case that means lose a race!

How many times has Barbaro run a 24.3 final fraction?

He wont do that next time, and probably never again.

You know who would be interesting in this one would have been Afleet Alex who had one hell of a closing kick.

[LemonSoupKid]

that hasn't raced with less than a month layoff? by that criterion, John, throw your boy Barbaro out

I think Barbaro is very good, but I remain skeptical. The other horses entered aren't proven yet to be inferior in any way, in my estimation.

LSKid

[Observer]

As much as I'm enjoying the success of Barbaro & his trainer Michael Matz .. I still remain skeptical .. because I think back to Fusaichi Pegasus .. I didn't believe in him .. until his Derby .. I remember how he looked going to the winner's circle .. like he hadn't even raced (with the exception of the dirt that coated his body) .. and let's not forget he was purchased for $4-million as a yearling! But then the Preakness happened .. and I was snapped right back to reality!

For me, it's hard not to like Barbaro, especially because of his trainer .. but strange things have happened in the Preakness before .. and I remember times when horses that ran poorly in the Derby were the ones who did best in the Preakness. Of course, I hope that's not the case this year!

[Ron]

Horses don't win every time out.

[twindouble]

Horses don't win every time out.

Just when you and I bet them. :rolleyes: This is a crazy game, but I love it. We have to rely on so many things we have no control over to make a buck. The jock, trainer, the weather and so on, not to mention the unforeseen that can happen in any race. Even some of the information we get is faulty, have to read in between the lines or attempt to apply some common sense. It would be nice to have a truly great horse come about, it's been so long it's depressing in a way.


Good luck,

T.D.

[JPinMaryland]

What exactly did happen to FuPeg in the Preakness, I remember being so impressed by the Derby but then I just forgot what happened the rest of the way? Speed duel?? :confused:

[JohnNUtah]

LOL, you may be right! I agree that he will be a big underlay in the win pools, if I play this race it will be in the exotics only. I may just go fishing that day instead.

[gregrph]

my usage of Dr. Z's (with my TI-81 calculator programmed) system has been 5-5 this year on Derby preps, and had NO recommendations for the Derby. I'll be all over it on the 20th, rest assured

LSK

LemonSoupKid- A little off topic, but WOW! Another Dr. Z fan? I've haven't heard of anyone else using his system.I used to do pretty well with it but the last year or so, I've seen profitable plays with good returns busted down to unplayable in the last minute or two before post time. I like using the "Live Tote" feature at brisbet.com and checking the percentages before using my calculator for my amount wagered. When I take my calculator to the track, people look at me strange!
Greg
PS Any other Dr. Z players here?

[Hank]

a colt by the name of red bullet is what happened to fu peg.The bullet ran a big one and fu peg ran good to be second,he just got outrun, no excuses.

[rrpic6]

What exactly did happen to FuPeg in the Preakness, I remember being so impressed by the Derby but then I just forgot what happened the rest of the way? Speed duel?? :confused:

I remember saying to myself "uh-oh, he's pretty wide" when they ran past the stands the 1st time in the Preakness. i kept my binoculars on FuPeg the whole race and could not understand why Desormeaux never dropped him closer to the rail. If it was a $5000 Claimer at Mountaineer, I'd say he stiffed him. Being 8 wide for a 1 3/16th, he should have been last, yet continued to rally and ran a game 2nd. The final time of that race was only average, 1:56, so blame the pin-head.

[Tom]

Empire Maker, Smarty Jones, Fu Peg,,,,Arazi!
Stienbrenner's horse last year. Afleet Alex.

Seems the better they look once, the quicker they retire.

If Barabo runs three more races, I'll happy.

If only they bred them like Forego anymore.:bang:

[Overlay]

If only they bred them like Forego anymore.:bang:

Of course, Forego couldn't pass all that talent on, either. Plus being a gelding may have had something to do with his sustained performance level, aside from the economics of being raced longer due to no breeding potential.

[JPinMaryland]

Okay so what happened in that Bold Forbes/Honest Pleasure duel? Was Winning Colors/Easy Goer something like that as well? I wonder if this years Preakness will be a duel such as that.

[PaceAdvantage]

Okay so what happened in that Bold Forbes/Honest Pleasure duel? Was Winning Colors/Easy Goer something like that as well? I wonder if this years Preakness will be a duel such as that.

Winning Colors/Easy Goer??????????????

[toetoe]

BF and HP set it up for Elocutionist. WC's foe was Forty Niner. Was that Risen Star's year?

[Overlay]

Correct, and then Risen Star also went on to win the 1988 Belmont Stakes as one of the many horses since 1978 to capture two out of the three Triple Crown races.

[Overlay]

Okay so what happened in that Bold Forbes/Honest Pleasure duel?

On page 24 of Winning at the Races, in conjunction with his discussion of the role of early speed in determining race outcomes, William Quirin offered the following comments on the 1976 Triple Crown races:

"There were two major contenders: Honest Pleasure, the favorite, and Bold Forbes. Both were intense front runners that seemed to resist any attempts at rating. Everybody knew that the two might cook each other in a suicidal duel for the early lead, setting the race up for a less talented horse with stamina.

"Realizing this, jockey Braulio Baeza tried to rate Honest Pleasure behind Bold Forbes in the Derby. His tactics failed -- Bold Forbes was able to relax and set a reasonable pace, and had enough left to hold off Honest Pleasure's repeated challenges in the stretch.

"It was a different story in the Preakness. Baeza changed tactics, and pushed Honest Pleasure into the speed duel expected in Kentucky. After running the fastest six furlongs in Preakness history, both horses paid the price, and Elocutionist roared past them in the stretch.

"Having tried it both ways, and failed, Honest Pleasure skipped the Belmont, leaving Bold Forbes as the only speed horse in the field. Running uncontested in the early stages, the little grandson of Bold Ruler opened a long lead. He would need every inch of it. Although tiring badly in the stretch, the game Bold Forbes managed to hold off the late charges of Great Contractor and MacKenzie Bridge, and win at a distance probably beyond his capabilities under normal circumstances."

[KingChas]

Winning Colors/Easy Goer??????????????

Hey PA they mighta dueled in the breeding shed? :lol: :lol:

[Tom]

Winning Colors/Easy Goer??????????????:lol::lol::lol:


It was Easy Goer, Saturday Silence!:rolleyes:

[KingChas]

Easy Goer finished on top by a couple of inches! :D

Sorry couldn't resist! :lol:

[LemonSoupKid]

LemonSoupKid- A little off topic, but WOW! Another Dr. Z fan? I've haven't heard of anyone else using his system.I used to do pretty well with it but the last year or so, I've seen profitable plays with good returns busted down to unplayable in the last minute or two before post time. I like using the "Live Tote" feature at brisbet.com and checking the percentages before using my calculator for my amount wagered. When I take my calculator to the track, people look at me strange!
Greg
PS Any other Dr. Z players here?

If used properly, it is a GREAT GREAT system to reaffirm YOUR bets. What people forget is that the betting public approximates the odds to a T. That is, an even money horse wins 50% of the time. 2-1s win 33% of the time. That's why I'm cautious for underlay/overlay comments, because outside of the derby, i think it's difficult to expose win market inefficiencies, generally because in the long run they don't exist. The only truth is that longshots are overbet, and favorites are underbet ...

I've won every year in the Preakness and Belmont due to my handicapping as well as calculating the expected return for show bets on those races, and putting huge money on them. For example, the easiest 30% I ever made was the SHOW bet on Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont (he paid more to show than to win!). It was a sure thing. The Gs I put on that were probably the best investment I've ever made.

It should be interesting to see how the bettors react to Barbaro, Brother D, and SNS in the Preakness ... if it's there, Z will expose. Easiest money in sports.


LSKid

[JPinMaryland]

Yes it was Risen Star as well as Forty Niner, thanks for the correction. Didnt Majestic Prince and Arts and Letters bump each other in the stretch? I think Baeza (A/L jockey) said that they would neve take anyone down at Pimlico so he was pissed. Another fellow was telling me about Ridan and Greek Money in the '62 Preakness, Greek Money coming through along the rail while being elbowed by Ycaza, IIRC.

[gregrph]

For example, the easiest 30% I ever made was the SHOW bet on Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont (he paid more to show than to win!). It was a sure thing. The Gs I put on that were probably the best investment I've ever made.

It should be interesting to see how the bettors react to Barbaro, Brother D, and SNS in the Preakness ... if it's there, Z will expose. Easiest money in sports.


LSKid

LSKid- Unfortunatly, Last Sat and next Sat (KD day and Prekness day), I will be working until 6pm:( I DID get in a nice exacta box one the derby they day before and won a nice payout. I got home just in time to watch the last 3 horses load into the gate and the race. I'm off the day of the Belmont and will be able to watch the online toteboard for possible Dr. Z plays. I LOVE the system and read the book at least once a year!
Mine is falling apart, I tried to look online for a new/updated one. Seems it's out of print and the going price is $90.+ I'll keep using the one that I have, thanks! Good luck next week.
Greg

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
You're dead wrong.
You are.chickenhead,
Ever since you last changed your avatar, you've been breaking me up! What was the basis for selecting that particular one?

[chickenhead]

no real meaning, just thought it was a nice pick.

Its a Czechoslovakian Wolf Dog, a mix of Carpathian Wolf and German Shephard. Neat dogs; very smart, athletic, a little too idiosyncratic for most. I'm thinking of getting one.

[KingChas]

I've won every year in the Preakness and Belmont due to my handicapping as well as calculating the expected return for show bets on those races, and putting huge money on them. For example, the easiest 30% I ever made was the SHOW bet on Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont (he paid more to show than to win!). It was a sure thing. The Gs I put on that were probably the best investment I've ever made.

It should be interesting to see how the bettors react to Barbaro, Brother D, and SNS in the Preakness ... if it's there, Z will expose. Easiest money in sports.


LSKid


Bridges have been known to burn down! :)

[KingChas]

And sure thing horse's have been known to break down! :(

[Tom]

And more than Fred Astair have "tapped out!":lol:

[Shamin2nd]

Barbaro is rightfully the favorite and horse to beat...DUH. He's the most lightly raced and he was absolutely the best horse on KyDerby Day.

But superhorse? A couple things to consider; Superhorses beat horses like Keyed Entry and Sharp Humor by more than a jump as he did at GP, and the Preakness will be run much more similar to Barbaro's GP races than the calvary charge we saw in Louisville...

Also, considering that Brother Derek AND SNS were probably compromised before the KY Derby even started because they were forced to change styles, and that (quick or not) Barbaro had the best trip of ANY of the top 10 finishers including either of his two main Preakness threats, again, I look for one hell of a race...

[PaceAdvantage]

But superhorse? A couple things to consider; Superhorses beat horses like Keyed Entry and Sharp Humor by more than a jump as he did at GP, and the Preakness will be run much more similar to Barbaro's GP races than the calvary charge we saw in Louisville...

Huh? Is Secretariat a superhorse? I think most rational people on the planet, and 99% of horseplayers would agree he was a superhorse.

Next, refresh my memory.....how many times did Secretariat get beat? Oh yeah, not once, not twice, but three times....

Now we all know Barbaro ain't no superhorse....YET....but to deny him that title based on the fact he ONLY beat another horse by a nose is silly....

[RXB]

Actually, Secretariat was beaten four times-- and lost a fifth race by DQ.

Even the mighty Brigadier Gerard, the greatest grass miler of all time and producer of the most spectacular set of Timeform ratings in history, was defeated once by Roberto. Run enough races and a horse is bound to lose eventually.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, I forgot about his maiden loss....

[46zilzal]

a shortcut in remembering the losses (sans DQ) is W M
Wood Whitney Woodward Maiden ...kind of a mneumonic

[Valuist]

Lets not forget the epic Sea Hero/Wild Gale battle :rolleyes:

[Shamin2nd]

Now we all know Barbaro ain't no superhorse....YET....but to deny him that title based on the fact he ONLY beat another horse by a nose is silly....I agree. Didn't at all mean to imply that Barbaro has been disqualified as a potential superhorse because of those the GP races I mentioned... All I'm saying is; he needs a couple more performances like the Derby before I'm willing to say he's head and shoulders above the rest of his main competition... Just not ready to call him a "superhorse" yet, even amongst this group, and annoint him the next Triple Crown winner.

[MadMax]

dumb question...

when is the Preakness?

[classhandicapper]

Win or lose, Barbaro will be an enormous underlay in the Preakness.
Pandy

Why do you say that?

I didn't key on him in the Derby, but IMO he was fairly obviously the horse most likely to run a big new top because of his preparation and WOs leading into the race.

IMO, most of the time that a Derby horse gets knocked off it's because his performance was a major upset unlikely to be duplicated, he benefitted from a very easy trip and wasn't as good as he looked, several horses that were better didn't fire or had very tough trips in the Derby but recovered in the Preakness, a new horse of substantial ability entered.

IMO, only the "trip" one is at play here unless you expect major improvement from Bernadini off his fast win against a very weak field. Both BD and SNS had rough trips. However, I would argue that even if one or both returns to top form it still might not be enough to beat Barbaro's best.

I think his probability of losing is very tied to his probability of bouncing. Given that many were expecting him to explode forward, I think that reduces the probability of a bounce. If he's even money or 4-5, I'm not so sure I'd bet against him even if I don't take it either.

[Overlay]

dumb question...

when is the Preakness?

It's always the third Saturday in May, two weeks after the Kentucky Derby. This year's running will be this Saturday, 20 May.

[MadMax]

It's always the third Saturday in May, two weeks after the Kentucky Derby. This year's running will be this Saturday, 20 May.

thanks so much!

[toetoe]

RXB,

Was BG really better than Mill Reef? I know BG beat him, but I wish they had hooked up more often. :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

RXB,

Was BG really better than Mill Reef? I know BG beat him, but I wish they had hooked up more often.
horse lost once in all his starts in top company and is legendary across the pond. fairly good credentials

[46zilzal]

if this race is ANTHING like SS-Easy Goer it will be outstanding. Those don't come around that often.

[RXB]

RXB,

Was BG really better than Mill Reef? I know BG beat him, but I wish they had hooked up more often. :ThmbUp:

Mill Reef was one of the finest horses ever; I doubt that Brigadier Gerard would've beaten him at 12f as it was a bit farther than he wanted (which didn't stop him from winning the one time he ran 12f, but it was not one of his best performances).

However, no other horse, ever, put up the consistently high Timeforms that the Brigadier did. At 10f, I think the Brigadier would've beaten Mill Reef; he ran several smashers at that distance. Of course, 12f is the true champion distance in Europe and that is why many rate Mill Reef as the superior horse, notwithstanding Brigadier Gerard's superior Timeforms and his victory when they met in the 2000 Guineas.

[RXB]

Since we were talking so recently about Mill Reef, it should be noted that he suffered a very serious breakdown during his gallops one day. It was touch-and-go, but he survived and became an outstanding sire.