question for CJ

[JPinMaryland]

I was wanting to ask you this since the Wood was run. What pace figures did you give Jazil? I could not find them on your website but maybe that is because I am an idiot and do not know how to navigate it.

I thought his run in the Wood would be a good test of your theories because if I understand them, he should not be rewarded for closing into a tiring pace. WHich brings up all sorts of questions: Was the Wood pace really tiring? If so is Jazil's late run an illusion? or is that 24.7 in the slop really impressive? It is impressive enough to be better than Bob/JOhn's score?

thx.

[cj]

Jazil had terrible overall numbers. Here is his Wood:

Aqu 9.0 sly | 116 93 80 91 | 96| 89

So, Wood was 116 early, 93 speed figures. Jazil was 80 early, 91 speed figure, and he earned a late pace rating of 96. His overall Performance figure of 89 was very, very weak.

Here was Bob and John:

Aqu 9.0 sly | 116 93 115 93 | 82| 102*

[classhandicapper]

The problem with evaluating deep closers numerically is that they will almost always earn low pace figures. Those low pace figures negatively impact their Performance Figures. However, they can win races with those low PFs because if they are consistent about the low pace figure, they will generally be consistent with the higher speed figure.

I prefer looking at their speed figures and evaluating whether or not there's enough speed in the race for them to deliver their typical speed figure.

The interrationship between the pace and speed gets very tricky.

Even a speed horse that has the highest performance figure is vulnerable in the average field. If the average pace for the class is faster than the most efficient way for the horse to run (the pace the typical winner runs), that average pace will cause the front runner to run a slower speed figure than PF. He'd earn the same PF, but it would be in a losing effort to some horse with a lower PF that rated and earned a faster speed figure.

[cj]

You can see I don't penalize deep closers much for low pace figures. Just look at his speed figure and his performance figure. It is definitely one of the things I do that I think is unique compared to others. Some of the 2 point difference was because of weight, not the pace figure.

[keilan]

The problem with evaluating deep closers numerically is that they will almost always earn low pace figures. Those low pace figures negatively impact their Performance Figures. However, they can win races with those low PFs because if they are consistent about the low pace figure, they will generally be consistent with the higher speed figure.

I prefer looking at their speed figures and evaluating whether or not there's enough speed in the race for them to deliver their typical speed figure.

The interrationship between the pace and speed gets very tricky.

Even a speed horse that has the highest performance figure is vulnerable in the average field. If the average pace for the class is faster than the most efficient way for the horse to run (the pace the typical winner runs), that average pace will cause the front runner to run a slower speed figure than PF. He'd earn the same PF, but it would be in a losing effort to some horse with a lower PF that rated and earned a faster speed figure.

While I agree with much of what you have written I think speed and pace figures become less and less important as the “route distances” increase especially in full fields. What I have noticed is that there is a huge distinction between 8f and 81/2f on either surface, once full fields start approaching 9 panels and more, breeding and energy dispersion become substantially more important imo.

[JPinMaryland]

I think CJ's evaluation is logical given his theory. It was hard to figure Jazil, especially what to make of the Wood.

I know CJ had Pt. Determined as the best closer, at least he said that at some pt. That horse can finish fast, although I am not sure he is so good in traffic. Has your evaluation of him changed much? I know he did not have a very good race on sat.

I had a hard time putting Jazil and Steppenwolfer in the same exotics so I wound up leaving them both off :bang: steppenwolf seemed a plodder and Jazil comes from a mile back but very fast. Somehow they both managed to grab a piece of the exotics on Sat. Did you evaluate Steppenwolfer as any better than Jazil?

[the_fat_man]

I didn't bet the derby but Jazil was one of two horses whose effort I had an interest in watching. The other was the freak, and any chance he had was pretty much wiped out by foot problems.

I posted quite a bit about Jazil's effort in the WOOD. It was basically discounted. Let's try again.
Yeah, he closed against dead horses. That's not to be contested. However, some qualifications are in order:

1) he was ON THE RAIL, and I do mean on the RAIL, until midway past the 1/16th pole, at which time he swung out, outside the path of KE and then B&J, and basically exploded through the lane. I thought after watching the headon that, if he got off the rail immediately after cutting the turn entering the stretch or went wide on the turn entering the stretch, following Scanlon's Song, he wins for fun.

Tried to make sense of his trip:

In his previous races he didn't run from that far off the pace
so perhaps he:

didn't like running in the slop
didn't like it being kicked in his face
Jara kept him inside, as everyone else was wide(r)

I certainly didn't expect him to come from dead last in the derby but I did expect him to run a bit

Now, I was also interested in the race immediately after the WOOD, the Carter (I believe)

I was disappointed in Sir Greeley's race. He hung terribly in the lane.
I didn't like the way Gomez finished on him (terrible effort)
and
the winner ran fast early and very slow late
(Greeley was wide and the winner was off the rail, as well.)

Well, Sir Greeley won opening week at Belmont, with a very nice ride by Coa, running down the loose Dutrow horse.
He was himself again.

Which got me to thinking that Jazil's late run was even more impressive than I originally thought.

Of course, I didn't really pay attention to his trip while watching the derby live. Tried to view an online replay the other day and it was just ridiculous.
Much too lazy to trip 20 horse fields.

[JPinMaryland]

I thought he was running very far back in the Fountain of Youth but that may be because he bled and did not fire at all. Did you read any interviews or anything about that race about that? I tend to doubt it since the horse wasnt on many radar screens at that pt.

it seems his standard strategy is to come through on the rail. I thought he was on the rail in the FoY but cannot tell from the only tape I have, that head on view of COrinthians DQ move...

[the_fat_man]

I thought he was running very far back in the Fountain of Youth but that may be because he bled and did not fire at all. Did you read any interviews or anything about that race about that? I tend to doubt it since the horse wasnt on many radar screens at that pt.

it seems his standard strategy is to come through on the rail. I thought he was on the rail in the FoY but cannot tell from the only tape I have, that head on view of COrinthians DQ move...

My point was that the rail is not the place to be GENERALLY in the slop.

Here's his running line in the FOY:

9-3 3/4, 8-5 3/4, 9-5 3/4, 8-9, 7-7 1/4

in the WOOD

8-13, 9-20, 9-18. ...

You really need to check the charts/watch the races a bit closer

he bled in the FOY; it's common knowledge

[JPinMaryland]

I know it's common knowledge. What is your pt? My pt. was that there probably werent many interviews in print that had to do with where he was runnning and what the reason was. That is because at that pt. no one had him on their radar screens.

Your earlier pt. was that you thought that him being far back was out of the ordinary, however I thought that is where he was deliberately placed in the FoY. You cite his running line in the FoY but you dont really have a comment as to whether he was back there out of design or because he bled. So I am not sure what you're getting at there.

Also, I said I thought he was running close to the rail in the FoY but I cannot tell from the video I have. I did compare it to the chart but I still cannot tell. Do you have any thoughts on this? Or should I just take your advice to watch races more closely?

I appreciate any help I can get, thank you.

[the_fat_man]

I know it's common knowledge. What is your pt? My pt. was that there probably werent many interviews in print that had to do with where he was runnning and what the reason was. That is because at that pt. no one had him on their radar screens.

Your earlier pt. was that you thought that him being far back was out of the ordinary, however I thought that is where he was deliberately placed in the FoY. You cite his running line in the FoY but you dont really have a comment as to whether he was back there out of design or because he bled. So I am not sure what you're getting at there.

Also, I said I thought he was running close to the rail in the FoY but I cannot tell from the video I have. I did compare it to the chart but I still cannot tell. Do you have any thoughts on this? Or should I just take your advice to watch races more closely?

I appreciate any help I can get, thank you.

Well, if you check the archives, you'll find a number of posts where I mention he was on the rail until very late.

There were a few posts, here and on some other forums, where people were going to use him in their exotics, thinking that the race would fall apart.

As for the FOY, he's 2 path 1st turn, at least 2 path BS, and enters the stretch in the 2 path. Without the headons, this is the best we can do.

It appears, given the derby, that he's, now, a one run late closer. So, he's running his routes the way he previously ran his sprints.

He was on the rail in the derby as well (1st and 2nd turn, at least)

I wouldn't get too excited about him, however
he made the last move in the derby

steppenwolfer (for example) had a wide(r) trip
ran earlier and still outfinished him in the stretch

[JPinMaryland]

okay I understand what you are saying...Earlier you said that in previous races he did not run that far from the pace. But looking at his PPs he is in last or almost last in every race but ALW in feb. That's the other pt. I was trying to make. Have another donut! :jump:

[Figman]

JAZIL will be getting another jockey for the Preakness. The owners of JAZIL think the jockey they had for the Derby wasn't "good enough!"

Fernando Jara gave JAZIL a great ride in the Derby and the owners are "all wet" in thinking JAZIL would have been closer with another rider.

[the_fat_man]

JAZIL will be getting another jockey for the Preakness. The owners of JAZIL think the jockey they had for the Derby wasn't "good enough!"

Fernando Jara gave JAZIL a great ride in the Derby and the owners are "all wet" in thinking JAZIL would have been closer with another rider.

That's news to me.

Per an article on Pimlico.com :

'The Preakness now has six confirmed starters: Barbaro, Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, Like Now, Bernardini and Hemingway’s Key. A decision will be made on Lawyer Ron later this week. Bob Baffert is considering running Bob and John and/or Point Determined.'

My assumption was that Jazil's connections were targeting the Belmont.

Nothing like making up stuff as we go along.:bang:

[JPinMaryland]

Is SUnriver not a possibility in this? I heard he is working great. A media guy I know from MD says that they are going to get 13 or 14, dunno if he's just shooting from the hip or knows more.