Cheating

[MONEY]

This was posted on another blog today. I don't know if it's true. But if it is, Could something like this still be going on after that Breeders Cup fiasco?

late money coming into the Calder pools?
In 2004 I attended the DRF handicapping forum in Las Vegas. During one break the topic among several of us was the offshore rebate{computer} money coming into the wagering pools. Some of the players were quite frustrated with the odds changes after the gates had been open when the entries were just past the quarter pole. One of the reps from Autotote confessed that a big reason why we were observing so many drops in the odds on front runners were the 20-25 second delays in the pool closings. He believed that some big money players with computers were able to actually place a bet after the race had begun. Perhaps with a program that identified lone speed types that might stay on to win if they got the lead. Immediately I took note of the tracks where this was happening and where it wasn't. Calder seemed to be the worst among the tracks I followed. Tampa was the best. I found out subsequently that Tampa had stopped taking offshore money {at least at that time}. I will never...ever play another race at Calder. The takeouts on exotics are higher and they allow this unfair practice to continue. Beware of tracks where you see several significant track odds falling on front runners past the quarter pole. Particularly in New York or Kentucky because I do not know if they allow this practice. Please pass along these observations if you see it happening.

[cj]

I have no idea if this is true or not. I hope it is not, but I can't say I would be shocked if it is revealed someday to be happening.

For a sport with such a poor image, why not just lock the windows at post time? Or when the first horse enters the gate? Or get modern systems? I know that no solution is perfect, but for the health of the game, we really need to get rid of odds changes after the gate opens.

[Valuist]

I noticed that Arlington has new graphics. What's changed? You don't see the horse's odds at the bottom of the screen during the race. AP had several incidents back in 2003-2004 w/large odds swings.

[cj]

Yes, I saw that as well. I remember Hollywood doing it also, though I don't remember if they still are. Doesn't change the fact that people will notice their horse was 9-5 as they left the gate and Even money coming down the lane.

[Valuist]

Thats true but it looks really, really bad (and obvious) when you see the leader is 5-2 on the backstretch and when they hit the turn you see the odds shift to 8-5. EVERYBODY sees it then. Now, people are only aware of it when they go to cash and see their 5-1 shot pay $8.80 to win.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's not people betting after the race goes off. It's people like ME (only ME with a LOT MORE $$$$) waiting until the LAST POSSIBLE SECOND to send in their wagers, so that they can assess the latest possible wagering pool scenarios.

Yes, it's computerized betting (I HAVE DONE THIS), but it is NOT past posting. Because of the delays in the pari-mutuel system (which BADLY needs a technological overhaul) it will appear as past-posting.

Remember folks, about 20% of the people wager 80% of the $$$ in racing. Imagine if only 5% of those 20% are waiting to the last possible moment to bet. There WILL BE a noticeable effect on the odds when the next update flashes on the tote.

[cj]

Yes, it's computerized betting (I HAVE DONE THIS), but it is NOT past posting. Because of the delays in the pari-mutuel system (which BADLY needs a technological overhaul) it will appear as past-posting.


I actually agree, I don't think it is happening, but I wouldn't say it is an impossibility. Mostly because of the needed technological overhaul you are talking about. What is the harm in locking pools so they don't change after the bell?

[Valuist]

PA-

I still think you're playing with fire waiting to bet online w/one minute to post. I've been burned too many times w/Pinnacle trying to bet with 1 minute, even up to four minuites before post. I'm usually more interested in seeing a late warmup by the horse than some late and unpredictable shift in the odds.

[PaceAdvantage]

I actually agree, I don't think it is happening, but I wouldn't say it is an impossibility. Mostly because of the needed technological overhaul you are talking about. What is the harm in locking pools so they don't change after the bell?

I never meant to imply it was impossible. THE BC Fix Six proved it wasn't impossible.

However, I would hanker a guess that if there is past posting going on, racetracks are going to notice it....eventually....especially when people in the general population are making noise about the situation.

[Tom]

The only way to ensure it doesn't happen is to have foolproof measures in pllace. Racing is far too lax on many image issues.

[sjk]

I actually agree, I don't think it is happening, but I wouldn't say it is an impossibility. Mostly because of the needed technological overhaul you are talking about. What is the harm in locking pools so they don't change after the bell?

They did this a few years ago at several tracks. When you need to bet early it drags out the bet, load horses, race cycle. If you are betting a lot of tracks it makes it tough to bet and watch all the races. I would rather take my chances (slim) that there are past posters rather than deal with the delays.


They need to speed up the tote rather than slowing down the players.

It is my impresion is that a big part of the issue is that some tracks do not comingle the off track money until the very end. This is the height of stupidity. After a player has a few of his winner dramatically cut in price he would be very likely to write off the track for good. Imagine following a process that makes the winners madder than the losers.

[fouroneone]

I posted a speech a while back by the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald addressing this issue.

[Dave Schwartz]

They did this a few years ago at several tracks. When you need to bet early it drags out the bet, load horses, race cycle. If you are betting a lot of tracks it makes it tough to bet and watch all the races. I would rather take my chances (slim) that there are past posters rather than deal with the delays.

Actually, the issue is exactly as you described but the focus is in the wrong place.

They closed the pools at the track but not at the OTBs. The problem was not solved (i.e. the odds kept changing as the race progressed) and it caused delays.

The answer lies in shutting the pools off from money added from off-track sources when the gate opens.

In other words, off-track wager takers must close the "window" early or risk having to deal with rejected tickets.


As for past-posting... please. If there are humans involved they will find a way to steal.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[cj]

I'm pretty sure they were closing off track money at 1 mtp or post time, and leaving the track pools open.

[bigmack]

It is my impresion is that a big part of the issue is that some tracks do not comingle the off track money until the very end. This is the height of stupidity.

This is exactly what's happening.

[twindouble]

The last I heard, it's not late money coming in with odds changes well after the gate opens, it has more to do with delay in graphics and video. I brought the subject up to TLG and he said he was aware of the claim and would look into it further but had his doubts.

T.D.

[Pace Cap'n]

How do we know that there are not still some bettors hard-wired to the tote as was the guy in North Dakota a few years back?

[twindouble]

How do we know that there are not still some bettors hard-wired to the tote as was the guy in North Dakota a few years back?

Here again, I thought that was baned. No money can come in when the tracks cut the wagering off, I think when it's the first or last horse enters the gate. I'm not sure what the practice is at every track. So from what I understand there can't be any past posting. Not that there would be odds changes when all is factored in and it may appear to be coming in very late but that's like I said, it could be the graphics and video. Keep in mind I'm just putting together what I've read or heard of, that's why I asked TLG. I'm not saying I know exactly what going on but I'm sure the answer is out there. I didn't want to jump the gun and make false claims.

[Valuist]

I'll never forget an incident at AP in the mid-80s. A race went off but the machines didn't. A number of clerks started betting. Sure enough, the horse who was 30-1 when the race went of, grabbed the early lead and was pounded during the race. Back then, the graphics didn't show the horse's odds during the race. THe payoffs were posted: the 30-1 shot now pays $12 to win. A near riot ensues. Headline story on the local news. They did catch the clerks.

Lowered payoffs really aren't new. I used to think that they'd (somebody in mutuels) keep a window open and punch tickets after the race. Nothing too big to get caught. Just skimming off the top. That might sound paranoid but I'm still not 100%sure it hasn't happened. Can anybody really say for sure its not a possibility?

[twindouble]

I'll never forget an incident at AP in the mid-80s. A race went off but the machines didn't. A number of clerks started betting. Sure enough, the horse who was 30-1 when the race went of, grabbed the early lead and was pounded during the race. Back then, the graphics didn't show the horse's odds during the race. THe payoffs were posted: the 30-1 shot now pays $12 to win. A near riot ensues. Headline story on the local news. They did catch the clerks.

Lowered payoffs really aren't new. I used to think that they'd (somebody in mutuels) keep a window open and punch tickets after the race. Nothing too big to get caught. Just skimming off the top. That might sound paranoid but I'm still not 100%sure it hasn't happened. Can anybody really say for sure its not a possibility?

There was a lot of that going on in the early days, everything is electronic now, less apt to happen. Security at the track is much better now, ESP when it comes to past posting. I will say this, even though some got an edge with good breaking horses back then, that don't mean they won or even had a shot to win, the real money was made when "They" had their race. :eek: You or I sure as heck wouldn't know who what when where or why. Another thing that's very important, once you get thinking everything is fixed or crooked, you'll become a loser for sure. When thievery becomes so blatant we all would be aware of it, you can't fool good handicappers and horseman for long and get away with it. That's why I say the great majority of races are run honest.

T.D.

[bigmack]

It's tough enough to assimilate the amount of data to do this professionally but this late tote crunch is beyond irksome, it's time to revolt and ask the powers that be to have the 'final odds' by the time they enter the gate (or as close to the actual as possible)

[toetoe]

The perception problem is also with some wise horseplayers who forget the 8-to-1's that pay $25 after going UP during the race. When they move beyond the 486's and abaci they're using now, the problem may disappear. He!!, they can't even calculate a pick-four/pick-six with a dead heat in it! Sheesh! :faint:

[twindouble]

It's tough enough to assimilate the amount of data to do this professionally but this late tote crunch is beyond irksome, it's time to revolt and ask the powers that be to have the 'final odds' by the time they enter the gate (or as close to the actual as possible)

Bigmack; Correct me if I'm wrong, even if you have all the bets in 5 min to post, there will still be late money coming in, right? It's still last min money or some whale hammering a horse.


T.D.

[bigmack]

TD
Fair point. There's a number of us out here that wait for the last moment and 'the last moment' is always simply a moment in time deemed by the shut down of further bets. The clock ticks and there may be a number of individuals waiting to 'crush it' with a decision they've reached hours/minutes/seconds prior to the close of the pool. Oftentimes, I think when some have large loot involved we get a little miffed when the odds are jostling mid-race. I guess what I'd like to see in the least is for the odds to stabilize prior to the bell.

[twindouble]

TD
Fair point. There's a number of us out here that wait for the last moment and 'the last moment' is always simply a moment in time deemed by the shut down of further bets. The clock ticks and there may be a number of individuals waiting to 'crush it' with a decision they've reached hours/minutes/seconds prior to the close of the pool. Oftentimes, I think when some have large loot involved we get a little miffed when the odds are jostling mid-race. I guess what I'd like to see in the least is for the odds to stabilize prior to the bell.

Yes I know what you mean, there's something sinister about those odds dropping when they head for home. I really think we make to much of it, those odd are going to what they are regardless of when the shut off happens. I would hope to think no one can make a bet after the gate opens after all the scandals that have cropped up, racing don't need another and I think they are aware of that. I've been wrong before on that score.

T.D.

[bigmack]

I posted a speech a while back by the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald addressing this issue.
Where can I find this post?

[Valuist]

The perception problem is also with some wise horseplayers who forget the 8-to-1's that pay $25 after going UP during the race.

It happens but usually those that go up late are horses that are very "live" early in the betting. The horse who looks like they should be 7-1/8-1 and open up at 9-5.

[fouroneone]

Where can I find this post?


We operate a real time network, reliable, secure executions. A very big point of this is that we look at a $100 million bond trade the same as we look at a $10 bet to win on a horse. It is the same transaction. It takes the same energy. It takes the same time. If someone goes to a teller’s window and places a $10 bet, someone had to press a button, that data has to be transferred in sub-second time back to its relays, back through its simulcasting partners, and back out to the fans so they can see that the prices have changed in real time. We look at it as the same prospect. When we started building eSpeed, and when we started going through all the ways that we could use it, it was like a hammer that hit us in the head that we should be using this for a number of different initiatives in the world today. Me being a passionate fan of racing and then spending a lot of time with Joe Asher, who told me about the issues in the US, I said we should probably get involved in seeing how we could fix the network and we think we have some solutions for that.



Full transcript on everything from training to spread betting and betfair can be found here:

http://www.harnesstracks.com/2005_annual_meeting/horseracebettinginthe21stcentury.htm

[luckyguy]

what knocks me out is when i'm in line and these $2 bettors are jamming the windows at the last minute, boy is that a joke.

also i've calculated that on most days almost 40-50% of the pool is coming in from the time they start loading the gate until they hit the first call.

this makes waiting till the last minute irrelevant. the intelligent handicapper must make a decision or estimate on what odds he will accept and how the public will wager.

all the sheet players & big big bettors i know are betting late because they don't want the (public/suckers) to see their hand not because of any odds swings or betting coups.

in this game just like the stock market there are two kinds of crowds, (smart money & dumb money).

[highnote]

I doubt that past posting is going on. Licensed rebate shops (offshore or onshore) have too much to lose. They make their money from commissions. And they make a lot over the course of the year. Why would they risk losing the cash cow in order to make a few measly dollars from the anemic U.S. racing pools? Plus, they could lose money -- not every front-runner wins.

If past posting was going on it would have been discovered by now.

I don't hear anyone complaining about the higher odds they got on Barbaro in the Derby because some whale bet $500,000 near the last flash of the tote on Sweetnorthernsaint. Plus, for all we know, it could have been a lot of value players waiting until the last minute or it could have been money coming in from around the world.

I'm just thankful that people are still betting on horses.