Barbaro -- If you owned him...

[highnote]

If you owned Barbaro, what would your next move be with the horse?

If he was mine, I'd retire him to stud and try to syndicate him for $100,000,000. He's undefeated on turf and dirt and a KY Derby winner.

There is no Triple Crown bonus. The next two races have meager purses compared to his value at stud.

I doubt that you could insure him for $100,000,000 -- maybe for $50,000,000.

Nope. If he were mine, he would live a life of leisure and pleasure.

[GeTydOn]

Don't his owners already live the life of leisure and pleasure?

[PaceAdvantage]

Nope. If he were mine, he would live a life of leisure and pleasure.

Well then, why race horses in the first place? Jeez....there is a little something called COMPETITION that certain people enjoy.

If most of the owners in the industry had thoughts like this, the sport would be deader than dead....

[46zilzal]

flash in the pan sires are not in demand as much as those RACE PROVEN. An animal that has been to war and done well is what you are looking for, not some relative unknown with 6 lifetime starts.

[OTM Al]

Epsom Derby if I thought he could beat that other horse I bred....A Kentucky/Epsom double would be unprecidented. Of course it appears that the layoff time was to give him extra freshness for the whole TC route, so that's what he will be doing. Would love to see him come back in the VA Derby as his first back (provided he does end up running all 3)

[PaceAdvantage]

flash in the pan sires are not in demand as much as those RACE PROVEN. An animal that has been to war and done well is what you are looking for, not some relative unknown with 6 lifetime starts.

Dynaformer is a flash in the pan sire? Tell that to the folks shelling out 100k a pop.

[46zilzal]

exceptions to every rule you know that, but one needs a race record to help

[Valuist]

Supposedly they are considering the Arc for this fall.

[KirisClown]

If he was mine, I'd retire him to stud and try to syndicate him for $100,000,000...

In a time where top horses stay on the track way to long and very rarely retire, I agree...

Let's hope a retirement announcement is already in the works...

[46zilzal]

Supposedly they are considering the Arc for this fall.
for this guy? that might be very embarassing. Much better than this one have gotten destroyed there. This colt deserves better than "pipe dreams."

[cj]

for this guy? that might be very embarassing. Much better than this one have gotten destroyed there. This colt deserves better than "pipe dreams."

Which "much better" horses are you referring to here? Worse horses than him have won the Arc.

[Doc]

I would definitely skip the Preakness, point for the Belmont, then give him some time off before starting to train seriously for the Arc. There's no need to destroy an animal by running back at Pimlico in 2 weeks.

Doc

[cj]

How does running back in two weeks destroy an animal!? He didn't even have a tough race in the Derby.

[the little guy]

Which "much better" horses are you referring to here? Worse horses than him have won the Arc.

I would take my chances that he could at least handle Westerner who was second last year.

My guess, if they are serious about the Arc, would be next year. I would never knock them for being sporting especially after the lack of " sporting " we have seen the last few years.

I just hope they still have those lamb chops for sale out by the paddock when we go to see him win the Arc...be it this year or next.

[Hank]

Did you have Barbaro in the derby?I could sense your confidence wavering a bit,I hope you did.I arrived at the derby alive to him twice in the pick 4,so instead of the win bet I was planning I wheeled him top and bottom in the exacta, I also keyed him in the tri and super, if bluegrass cat runs out I've got the tri and the super,but hey I not crying with a loaf of bread under my arm.

[RXB]

Before things get too carried away with this Arc nonsense:

1. No Dynaformer horse has ever won a Grade 1 race beyond 10 furlongs, jump races excepted. Only one, Critical Eye, has won a single Grade 2 race beyond 10 furlongs.

2. No Dynaformer horse has ever won a Group 1 or Group 2 race at any distance in England, France or Ireland.

3. The utter superiority of European horses over North American horses at 12f should be obvious to everyone.

[Hank]

Every fact you stated is true,and I'm not saying Barbaro could or could not win the arc, but great indivaduals make a mockery of stats.The euro milers are also much the best,but a Lure comes along and dominates them.

[Joe L.]

If you owned Barbaro, what would your next move be with the horse?

.
On to the Preakness of course! :ThmbUp:

[highnote]

Well then, why race horses in the first place? Jeez....there is a little something called COMPETITION that certain people enjoy.

If most of the owners in the industry had thoughts like this, the sport would be deader than dead....

I agree that competition is fun, but in my financial position I would enjoy the money that comes from selling shares in a stallion syndicate more than I would enjoy the stress of watching my horse race and risk a life ending injury with every stride.

Of course, if I had several billion dollars per year in oil income then racing him would probably be more fun than the money.

[lsbets]

How many people are so wealthy that they can turn down 50-60 million dollars in the spirit of some good competition? As much as I'd like to hold it against an owner for going to stud as soon as the dollars get ridiculous, I can't. The billionaires buy baseball and football teams. For the vast majority of horseowners, a $50 million syndication is a large percentage of their overall net worth.

[46zilzal]

Which "much better" horses are you referring to here? Worse horses than him have won the Arc.

referring to U.S. based animals, TOM ROLFE for one

[46zilzal]

3. The utter superiority of European horses over North American horses at 12f should be obvious to everyone.
you know why? They PROIVIDE a GRADED stakes platform in order to establish where sources of stamina come from PROVEN on the race track. N. A. does not

[Valuist]

[QUOTE=RXB]Before things get too carried away with this Arc nonsense:

1. No Dynaformer horse has ever won a Grade 1 race beyond 10 furlongs, jump races excepted. Only one, Critical Eye, has won a single Grade 2 race beyond 10 furlongs.

2. No Dynaformer horse has ever won a Group 1 or Group 2 race at any distance in England, France or Ireland.


How many Dynaformer horses run over there? He's an American based stallion; I'm sure the majority of his offspring have run in North America. Secondly, there really aren't many Gr 1s or 2s at distances beyond 10 furlongs in this country. If a son of Elusive Quality can come within a few inches of winning the Belmont Stakes, I would think a Dynaformer could win at that distance. If Dynever isn't such a hanger, I'm sure he could've gotten the distance in a Gr 1 or 2. Perfect Drift also.

[Ron]

How many people are so wealthy that they can turn down 50-60 million dollars in the spirit of some good competition? As much as I'd like to hold it against an owner for going to stud as soon as the dollars get ridiculous, I can't. The billionaires buy baseball and football teams. For the vast majority of horseowners, a $50 million syndication is a large percentage of their overall net worth.

I don't think there is much difference between 50 and 100 million.

[PaceAdvantage]

[QUOTE=RXB]How many Dynaformer horses run over there? He's an American based stallion; I'm sure the majority of his offspring have run in North America. Secondly, there really aren't many Gr 1s or 2s at distances beyond 10 furlongs in this country.

Excellent points. Mr. Taleb would be proud....

[RXB]

The record speaks for itself.

There are 19 Grade 1 & 2 stakes longer than 10f this year in North America. Dynaformer has been standing stud since '90. One G2 win at those distances.

The prime distance for Dynaformer is 9f. (That was his best distance as a runner, by the way.) Up to one furlong on either side of that is okay, depending on the mare. Any greater deviation is usually trouble. He has a very tight distribution for winning distances.

And since most of the public believes that Dynaformer horses like long distances, they often bet them down in those 11f and 12f races. Bad idea. Not only do you get question marks for the distance, you also tend to get relatively low odds, too.

[PaceAdvantage]

And since most of the public believes that Dynaformer horses like long distances, they often bet them down in those 11f and 12f races. Bad idea. Not only do you get question marks for the distance, you also tend to get relatively low odds, too.

Dynaformer shinaforma.

Barbaro ran the fastest last quarter mile in a Kentucky Derby since Secretariat. This after sticking fairly close to a quick pace.

If he was sired by Carson City, it probably wouldn't make a difference at this point.

[cj]

Film Maker is by Dynaformer, and she won the G2 La Prevoyante Handicap at 1 1/2 miles in addition to running second in the BC F&M Turf at 1 3/8 miles. Dynamite Lass won a G3 at GP this year going 1 7/16 miles.

Looking through the records of his progeny, I didn't see very many starts at all at greater than 10f. Who were these bet down Dynaformer horses at 11 and 12f?

[Valuist]

This is from Lauren Stitch's column in Thursday's DRF:

"Barbaro is by 21 year old Dynaformer, one of the dwindling number of STAMINA sources in this country. Dynaformer is by Roberto, and like most of Darby Dan Farm's horses, Roberto was bred for the classics. Dynaformer is out of Grade 1 winner Andover Way, who is by His Majesty, another STAMINA influence. Unlike today's breeders, who embrace speed as the end-all, Darby Dan, like other prominent breeders of that era, strived to improve the breed and recognized that a balanced blend of stamina and speed was the recipe to produce classic winners. Barbaro has this balanced blend of STAMINA and speed. Inheriting an ample amount of STAMINA from his sire, Barbaro gets a solid dose of speed from his damsire, Carson City."

I would consider Stich a pedigree expert.

[JohnNUtah]

Mark this down; A Dynaformer WILL win Group 1 races everywhere in the world. A Dynaformer WILL win races at 12 furlongs in Europe.

[RXB]

Hasn't happened yet, and his foals have been racing for 14 years.

[dccprez]

We could go on about Dynaformer and distance all day I suppose, but THIS is what I would do with Barbaro IF he wins the Preakness;

Next - BELMONT STAKES (naturally). Let's hope he wins. Then rest and a comeback race in the HASKELL, followed by the TRAVERS. If he wins out then he'll have an unprecedented sweep of the major GR1 races for 3 YO's (we could split hairs here - is the Fla Derby as "big" as the Ark Derby or Blue Grass or Wood? Maybe not, but the FlaD is a GR1 at 1-1/8 so we're close enough).

Consider that he may possibly end up meeting Godolphin's boy, (Discreet Cat?? I don't recall...) in one or both of those races as he is currently based at BelPark...

Now maybe it gets more interesting - AND I am reaching because I don't have the Belmont fall schedule memorized so bear with me... Post Travers you could go back to Turf in the Man-O-War (or is it the Joe Hirsch?) which also matches him up with older horses for the first time, OR the more "standard" Jockey Club Gold Cup route which accomplishes the same thing.

Finally the Breeder's Cup - where he'll quite possibly see Electrocucionist, Brass Hat, Lava Man, FLower Alley and other big boys.

Pull of THAT campaign and make a seat for him at the table for All Time Greats. Even come close and we're starting the Hall of Fame debate five years from now. Unfortunately - and FAR more likely - is that if the TC falls into place I'd say that June 10, 2006 will be the last time we see Barbaro on the track in a competitive sense.

At least I can dream...

[Indulto]

... THIS is what I would do with Barbaro IF he wins the Preakness;

Next - BELMONT STAKES (naturally). Let's hope he wins. Then rest and a comeback race in the HASKELL, followed by the TRAVERS. If he wins out then he'll have an unprecedented sweep of the major GR1 races for 3 YO's (we could split hairs here - is the Fla Derby as "big" as the Ark Derby or Blue Grass or Wood? Maybe not, but the FlaD is a GR1 at 1-1/8 so we're close enough).

... Post Travers you could go back to Turf in the Man-O-War (or is it the Joe Hirsch?) which also matches him up with older horses for the first time, OR the more "standard" Jockey Club Gold Cup route which accomplishes the same thing.

Finally the Breeder's Cup - where he'll quite possibly see Electrocucionist, Brass Hat, Lava Man, FLower Alley and other big boys.

Pull of THAT campaign and make a seat for him at the table for All Time Greats. Even come close and we're starting the Hall of Fame debate five years from now. Unfortunately - and FAR more likely - is that if the TC falls into place I'd say that June 10, 2006 will be the last time we see Barbaro on the track in a competitive sense.

At least I can dream...dccprez,
Pleasant dream.

Matz's statements to the press indicate that the Triple Crown is their objective. That would be confirmed by his competing in the Preakness as there is no point in running with only two weeks rest if they weren't also going to run in the Belmont following a 2nd leg victory. Winning the Triple Crown would certainly elevate the colt's stud value to the stratosphere, but maximizing it would require also displaying superiority over turf specialists as well as the ability to defeat older horses on both surfaces.

As a Triple Crown winner, he would have nothing to gain by running in either the Haskell or the Travers. The Arc would indeed be a triumph, but how prepared would he be to compete this year on that course with that pace style? A more realistic goal would be the BC Turf. Ideally that would follow a victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

It would not surprise me, but would especially please me, to see Barbaro proclaimed Horse of the Year as a three-division champion. If he's that good, and there are no tears being shed for breeders, the horse should be campaigned in Europe as a 4YO to eclipse any challenges to Horse of the Century honors once the Arc supremacists have been appeased. Who wouldn't want to breed to that potential?

BTW would the Sprint Division championship also be possible by winning the one-turn G1 Cigar Mile with impressive early fractions against a credentialed competitor?

[46zilzal]

the Arc? this one hasn't shown to be that good yet.

[46zilzal]

actually when was the last one to go from NA to France to even try it? I can recall some sucess in Ireland but never at Longhamps. Even the sprinters back up there.

[Valuist]

I remember Kitten's Joy was being pointed for it. I think they changed their mind after Powerscourt blew him away in the Million. I don't think Kitten's Joy wanted to go more than 1 1/4 miles.

Has there been anyone as good as Barbaro to go over there?

[highnote]

A mile and a half on turf on another continent against the best mile and a half turf horses in the world is asking a lot of any horse. I'd love to see them try it, though.

[classhandicapper]

How does running back in two weeks destroy an animal!? He didn't even have a tough race in the Derby.

That's a great question!

With all due respect to bounce theory, years ago I did multi year study on every horses that ran on the NY circuit. I was looking for patterns in the days between races, work outs, how well the horses ran in their last start etc....

Every single stat pointed to the opposite of current conventional wisdom. That is, if a horse ran a winning effort in his last start, the quicker he came back the better he did statistically from both a win percentage and ROI point of view. The best category was coming back in less than 10 days. Even 5 days or less was excellent.

More time off actually helped horses that ran a poor race in their last start!

My conclusion was that the shorter the time frame between a horse's last start and today the more likely his form hasn't changed much between his last start and today (good or bad).

I'm not saying there aren't instances where a horse is overworked, overraced, had an especially tough race etc.. and needs a longer rest. I'm saying that attempts to project that may be more complicated than people think.

IMO, if the trainer is competent and he's willing to wheel the horse right back, I think it's usually a very good sign. If the horse was drained, he would probably know and pass.

Personally I think if Barbaro doesn't win Saturday it will be because he gets beat by a horse that ran better or because he doesn't run as well as in the Derby for reasons other than only having two weeks off. This is a fresh horse early in his campaign. The Derby wasn't especially stressful even though it was very fast.

It may be a minority view, but that's the way I see it.

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by cj
How does running back in two weeks destroy an animal!? He didn't even have a tough race in the Derby.CJ,
Who said anything about destroying the horse by running with “only” two weeks rest?

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t just over 4 weeks the previous minimum spacing of races for Barbaro? Matz is very patient. My point was that he wouldn’t modify his successful modus operandi unless his goal was in fact the Triple Crown.
Originally posted by classhandicapper:
With all due respect to bounce theory, years ago I did multi year study on every horses that ran on the NY circuit. I was looking for patterns in the days between races, work outs, how well the horses ran in their last start etc....

Every single stat pointed to the opposite of current conventional wisdom. That is, if a horse ran a winning effort in his last start, the quicker he came back the better he did statistically from both a win percentage and ROI point of view. The best category was coming back in less than 10 days. Even 5 days or less was excellent.

More time off actually helped horses that ran a poor race in their last start!

My conclusion was that the shorter the time frame between a horse's last start and today the more likely his form hasn't changed much between his last start and today (good or bad). CH,

I’d be interested in more details on your study, in particular the total sample size for horses coming back in less than 10 days, number of repeat winners, graded stakes participation, and whether the horse had achieved a new top figure of some sort in the original race.

I’m not saying your conclusions are wrong, I’m just wondering how they apply to top quality horses generally, and to this situation in particular.

Was it distance that defeated Smarty Jones in his bid for a Triple Crown or was it the spacing of his races and the fact that he achieved new tops several times in the course of his 3YO prep races (and his best SHEETS figure in the Preakness)? Smarty won two legs in the course of two weeks but not all three in the space of five weeks. He wasn’t going to skip the AK Derby with that special bonus, but maybe that big performance in the Rebel took something out of him for the TC campaign.
IMO, if the trainer is competent and he's willing to wheel the horse right back, I think it's usually a very good sign. If the horse was drained, he would probably know and pass.

Personally I think if Barbaro doesn't win Saturday it will be because he gets beat by a horse that ran better or because he doesn't run as well as in the Derby for reasons other than only having two weeks off. This is a fresh horse early in his campaign. The Derby wasn't especially stressful even though it was very fast. IMO Barbaro is not only lightly-raced compared to Smarty, but has more in the tank for his TC bid which I expect will be successful.

[classhandicapper]

Indulto,

I did the study in the late 80s and believe I still have all the results, just not where I live now. Remind me next week and if can find them I can give you more details.

It covered approximately 2 years of NYRA racing and was broken out in several ways - including class, sprints/routes etc.. I had all the data on a computer. When I found anything interesting among the higher level stats, I was able to dig into the details better because I had all the DRFs. Obviously I don't have the details anymore.

Here are some repeater stats that I do have available now.

5 days or less 23 of 81 won again 28.4%
6 - 10 82 of 560 won again 14.6%
11 - 15 145 of 753 won again 19.3%
16 - 21 77 of 619 won again 12.4%
22 - 30 60 of 416 won again 14.4%
31 - 45 31 of 226 won again 13.7%
46 - 60 6 of 62 won again 9.6%

It might make some sense to combine some categories to get a smoother view. After 60 days the stats were poor until you got to over 6 months and then they were OK again. I assume that group contained a lot of high quality horses coming back from scheduled layoffs.

Granted, this data is old and training methods have changed, but I'm not entirely convinced they aren't saying something important about what horses are capable of as opposed to what modern trainers think is best. They also don't tell you how long a horse will last if you get too aggressive about running him too often.

I recall the stakes/hcp stats being much more balanced from an overall perspective and the repeater stakes/hcp category was too small to be meaningful.

[toetoe]

Trying for the Arc is fine, if they are being sporting AND they admit it's a 200/1 shot.

[Indulto]

Trying for the Arc is fine, if they are being sporting AND they admit it's a 200/1 shot.TT,
Finally gotcha!

I was just taking a pleasant dream to its optimal conclusion with a little TIC thrown in. Being sporting is one thing, insanity is something else. If the horse actually finished his 3YO season as I suggested -- with no meaningful competition in sight -- it would be criminal to withhold his bloodlines from those lascivious lovelies lined-up behind the breeding shed.

Weep no more my ladies!

[toetoe]

Desulto,

Nice quote from Stephen Foster's "My Old Kentucky Home, Good Night." I have a copy of it in the original "darkies" version. Shall I destroy it? I've gone to confession already. Might that be enough? :confused:

[Indulto]

Desulto,
Nice quote from Stephen Foster's "My Old Kentucky Home, Good Night." I have a copy of it in the original "darkies" version. Shall I destroy it? I've gone to confession already. Might that be enough? :confused:TT,
Check with Msrs. Son-of-Bob and Well-fallen for appropriate use of the G-word. ;)

[highnote]

CJ,
Who said anything about destroying the horse by running with “only” two weeks rest?


I was worried about a Barbaro injury.

I'm beginning to think that you need to race a few times as a two year old and at least 3 or 4 times as a three year old. Racing helps build bone mass and strength.

Barbaro may have been too fast for his own good.

I'm speculating. Someone like McSnell would know better. But this is my gut feeling.

There was no TC bonus. Only a million dollar Preakness purse and Barbaro already won the most important race. I know the owners are sportmen and I commend them for that. But I think my first post that started this thread was the correct way to go with Barbaro -- retire him to stud and syndicate him for $100,000,000. What was the point in risking him. Plus, why not do a thorough vet check after he broke through the gate?

Wonder if he is insured?

Sad day for racing.

[toetoe]

I support the trainer 100%. This is another travail in his remarkable life. One thing I wonder about is his stride, a kind of Crystal Water-like pounding stride that is safe as houses on the turf. Maybe the dirt pounding was just a bit too much?

This is NOT, I repeat NOT to be construed as an argument in favor of Astrodirt. :bang: