dccprez
05-08-2006, 02:15 PM
There are some things that I remeber after the fact almost every year, post Derby. They're nothing "special" or "revealing" - just certain concepts that I tend to overlook (or ignore!) when I do my Derby 'capping. This year seems to offer a clearer "pallet" for recognizing them and to finally make a concerted effort to remember and use them in the future. (Because hey, I over-cap the Derby and I think that there are a lot more of "me" than there are people willing to admit). So let us use some of MY stupidity to put some obvious observations into the strange pool-of-thought that we use when capping the big races (and if nothing else it'll be a little fun);
1. Horses that are coming up to the race in very good shape, are likely to run well. By extension, if that horse, from all indications, is coming up to a race is VERY good shape - and by all indications better than most or all of the others - it will run VERY well and likely win; (This was Barbaro who, by all measures and observations, was amazingly fresh and sharp while at CD the weeks prior to the Derby). So use that horse!
2. Don't make "excuses" for a horse you like - if that horse has been running slower than other contenders then he probably IS slower. If it has been running poorly then he probable will continue to run poorly.
3. A front-running or pace-pressing horse that ends up way outside will be at a disadvantage. Period. If it isn't named "Spectacular Bid" or "Secretariat" it probably won't win.
4. A horse that wins at Keeneland, loose on the lead, by multiple lenghts, is not going to repeat that performance at CD AND, if said horse is going to meet other horses that are at least as fast and as classy, he will most likely shoot his wad before they get to the 1/4 pole. (Fortunately I didn't get bitten by that bug this time but there are any number of people who did get sucked in.)
5. In this day and age of information sharing, "Wise Guy" horses should be renamed "Common Knowledge Alternative Option That We Would Like To See Upset the Real Favorites Horses". There was NOTHING "wise guy" about AP Warrior (who was called the "wise guy horse" in a number of articles that I read) - well before the race everyone who followed the sport knew that he was well bred, well meant and was possbily "sitting on a big peformance". The fact that he had lost ground in the stretch of every race was curiously omitted...
6. "Big Time" closers USUALLY clunk up for 3rd or 4th, not 1st no matter how hot the pace is.
7. Really good, really neat little horses, who have done little wrong, BUT have run confirmedly slower than other contenders, AND get stuck way outside, like them as much as you like they still aren't going to win. Period. (See "Lawyer Ron" and his past performances and then this will make more sense. Hey, all the info was there. Done nothing wrong. no complaints, very good little horse, but things were just stacked against him. Wish I had realized that...)
8. Win, lose or draw, sit back and rejoice when a 20 horse stampede does NOT result in a breakdown, catastrophic wipe out, injury to horse or jockey
9. It is ALWAYS better to have a group of friends and family over the house to watch the big race (and use it as an excuse to have a big cook-out, bon-fire, Mint Julep consumption contest) than it is to watch it alone or at an OTB.
I had a BALL on Saturday even though I didn't win much. I hope you all did as well. See you in two weeks when we try to get Mr. Barbaro thismuchcloser to a possbile long-overdue Triple Crown!
1. Horses that are coming up to the race in very good shape, are likely to run well. By extension, if that horse, from all indications, is coming up to a race is VERY good shape - and by all indications better than most or all of the others - it will run VERY well and likely win; (This was Barbaro who, by all measures and observations, was amazingly fresh and sharp while at CD the weeks prior to the Derby). So use that horse!
2. Don't make "excuses" for a horse you like - if that horse has been running slower than other contenders then he probably IS slower. If it has been running poorly then he probable will continue to run poorly.
3. A front-running or pace-pressing horse that ends up way outside will be at a disadvantage. Period. If it isn't named "Spectacular Bid" or "Secretariat" it probably won't win.
4. A horse that wins at Keeneland, loose on the lead, by multiple lenghts, is not going to repeat that performance at CD AND, if said horse is going to meet other horses that are at least as fast and as classy, he will most likely shoot his wad before they get to the 1/4 pole. (Fortunately I didn't get bitten by that bug this time but there are any number of people who did get sucked in.)
5. In this day and age of information sharing, "Wise Guy" horses should be renamed "Common Knowledge Alternative Option That We Would Like To See Upset the Real Favorites Horses". There was NOTHING "wise guy" about AP Warrior (who was called the "wise guy horse" in a number of articles that I read) - well before the race everyone who followed the sport knew that he was well bred, well meant and was possbily "sitting on a big peformance". The fact that he had lost ground in the stretch of every race was curiously omitted...
6. "Big Time" closers USUALLY clunk up for 3rd or 4th, not 1st no matter how hot the pace is.
7. Really good, really neat little horses, who have done little wrong, BUT have run confirmedly slower than other contenders, AND get stuck way outside, like them as much as you like they still aren't going to win. Period. (See "Lawyer Ron" and his past performances and then this will make more sense. Hey, all the info was there. Done nothing wrong. no complaints, very good little horse, but things were just stacked against him. Wish I had realized that...)
8. Win, lose or draw, sit back and rejoice when a 20 horse stampede does NOT result in a breakdown, catastrophic wipe out, injury to horse or jockey
9. It is ALWAYS better to have a group of friends and family over the house to watch the big race (and use it as an excuse to have a big cook-out, bon-fire, Mint Julep consumption contest) than it is to watch it alone or at an OTB.
I had a BALL on Saturday even though I didn't win much. I hope you all did as well. See you in two weeks when we try to get Mr. Barbaro thismuchcloser to a possbile long-overdue Triple Crown!