Beyer on Barbaro

[Valuist]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12686630/

[Ron]

Damn Beyer, I actually like Barbaro and thought Barbaro had a chance at winning the Triple Crown. Now Barbaro has little shot.

[cj]

Beyer pretty much picked Barbaro to win the Derby, didn't seem to hurt.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Beyer wrote a nice articled based on a static look at the 2006 Ky Derby- and a positive one!
Not to take anything away from him, but I will look for the future article in which he discusses the 5-week layoff of Barbaro leading up to the Derby.
Maybe he will also discuss the presence or absence od Day, Baily, Frankel, and Lukas affects this years' TC races.

[blind squirrel]

Beyer pretty much picked Barbaro to win the Derby, didn't seem to hurt.

BEYER'S PICKS FOR THE DERBY:

1.A.P.WARRIOR
2.BARBARO
3.POINT DETERMINED
4.SWEETNORHERNSAINT

he did say he was the best horse in the
race.{turf}...."his dirt performances weren't
dazzling."

[cj]

He had to pick someone first, but here is what he actually said at DRF:

Q: Hi Andy-Time is almost up. Who do you think are the main contenders and how are you thinking about betting them? Andy Beyer:I'm going to put my emphasis on A. P. Warrior, Point Determined and Barbaro. I'll probably play the race with the premise that one of those three has to win. I'll throw out all the speed horses. I'll throw out Brother Derek. If I sue Sweetnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron, it will be in a very small way. And I hope I can guess correctly as to the identity of the 50-to-1 shot who is going to plod up for third or fourth place after the speed has faded.

He gets ripped when he doesn't get it right, but gets no mention at all when he does a decent job.

[Tom]

I wonder if he is planning to "sue" Lawyer Ron? :lol::rolleyes:

[Ron]

Well, A. P. Warrior was 18th and Point Determined was 9th. I'm not sure I would call that a decent job.

[cj]

The guy narrowed a 20 horse field down to 3 possible winners, and then said he was throwing out all the speed (Sinister Minister surely), Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthernsaint (3 of the top 5 choices I believe), none of which hit the board. Maybe next time he should give out the super straight to get a little credit.

[Ron]

"If I use Sweetnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron, it will be in a very small way. "


He didn't throw them out.

He basically picked 5 of 20.

[cj]

"If I use Sweetnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron, it will be in a very small way. "

He didn't throw them out.

He basically picked 5 of 20.

You sound like a Beyer hater for whatever reason. He was talking about using them in the lower slots of exotics, not in the top spot. And those others he threw out were from the exotics, not just the win spot.

[Indulto]

He had to pick someone first...
...He gets ripped when he doesn't get it right, but gets no mention at all when he does a decent job.CJ,
No argument, but it's hard to shed tears when the ripper becomes the rippee.

To put things in perspective, however, consider the "jobs" of his DRF peers, Hammersly and Crist. Hammersly had Barbaro right on TOP and had the longshot 3rd place finisher in his third spot. Crist didn't even mention Barbaro, but had the longshot 2nd place finisher as his third choice.

Neither of the two longshots had a triple-digit "Beyer" and Barbaro's "Beyers" were below those of several others.

Pardon me if I reserve my A B Kudos for the Cajun Beats and "Picking Winners."

I hereby nominate Hammersly to replace Illman in future DRF Chats.

I'm sure tlg will announce that Beyer, Crist, and Hammersly all boxed eachother's selections in the Trifecta and laughed all the way to the bank.;)

[Ron]

I'm not a Beyer hater. I usually take time to read what he has to say. I don't agree that "Beyer pretty much picked Barbaro to win the Derby". And my first comment was meant as a joke.


I think picking Barbaro was easy. My Mom picked Barbaro. Beyer said nothing about Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer.

He wasn't any more right than anyone else.

[cj]

CJ,
Neither of the two longshots had a triple-digit "Beyer" and Barbaro's "Beyers" were below those of several others.


I don't see how the figures assigned to previous races are related to whether he did a decent job handicapping the Derby.

He didn't get any credit when Charasmatic and War Emblem had the best last out number and paid boxcars. He was laughed at by many here and elsewhere for not betting his top figure. Seems he can't win no matter what he does, unless he picks his top last out figure and the horse wins. Only an idiot would pick the top speed figure every race and bet them, and Beyer is certainly no idiot.

I never said his analysis was great or the best I'd seen or anything other than "decent". But even that is too much for some to take.

[Valuist]

"If I use Sweetnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron, it will be in a very small way. "


He didn't throw them out.

He basically picked 5 of 20.

I didn't interpret it that way at all. I felt he basically wanted to take a stand against them. I'm sure he probably had several part wheel tickets for tris and exactas and anything involving SNS and LR would've been on saver tickets.

If I was Beyer, I would say why should I go on when all I do is get ripped? The guy has done more single handedly to promote horse racing than the NTRA ever has and yet he has far more critics.

And if you don't like who he picks, I would think you'd be glad because he will sway public opinion and you'd get a better price.

[Indulto]

I don't see how the figures assigned to previous races are related to whether he did a decent job handicapping the Derby.Point well taken, but Beyer's influence is based on the "figures that bear his name" and his handicapping opinions are employed to market the use of those figures as well as to provide DRF readers with his handicapping expertise.
He didn't get any credit when Charasmatic and War Emblem had the best last out number and paid boxcars. He was laughed at by many here and elsewhere for not betting his top figure. Seems he can't win no matter what he does, unless he picks his top last out figure and the horse wins. Only an idiot would pick the top speed figure every race and bet them, and Beyer is certainly no idiot. I never said Beyer was an idiot. I think I've made it clear that I think he is a bright, articulate, successful, writer, handicapper, businessman, and presumably bettor, who sometimes appears arrogant and insensitive in print.

Don't you think it's even possible that Beyer doesn't get the credit you think he deserves because many people don't understand or appreciate how -- given his success in all these areas which depend upon jockeys as talented in their own profession as he is in his -- he can appear so contemptuous of riders and continually denigrate them in print.
I never said his analysis was great or the best I'd seen or anything other than "decent". But even that is too much for some to take.
Your use of the term "decent" is appropriate. I do appreciate that your defense of Beyer as handicapper is both fair-minded and non-provocative.

[michiken]

With all the clout and publicity that Beyer has, what is there to keep him from publishing the horses he DOES NOT like while privately betting the one's he DOES like?

What keeps him and all 'pickers' honest?

[LaughAndBeMerry]

I have no idea why Beyer gets a bad rap. I think he's more responsible for bringing a generation of baby boomers into the game than anyone with his mid 70's and early 80's writings. I also happen to think he's a pretty damn good handicapper. Maybe not in the class of a Len Ragozin or Len Friedman as public figure types go, but a whole lot better than most.

JMHO.

LBM

[JPinMaryland]

Beyer is obviously a great writer and has done much to promote the game. I have to criticisms though:

A) I assume he makes or made a living at betting horses. Why on earth would a true gambler give away his picks in public print? This makes no sense to me.

I thought it funny that after Hammering Hank came out early in the week for AP Warrrior, suddenly many public cappers started jumping on that bandwagon. Like lemmings. Makes sense from their pt. of view: wait for one gguy to toss out a name then jump all over that one. THe less said the better.

B) Why are he and many of the other public handicappers encouraging people to play exotics? This seems like an obvious shill for the tracks.

If you can handicap one race fairly well, why would you risk it by handicapping more than one race to score a daily double? Wouldnt it be better to place all your analysis time/energy on one race and call that correct?

It makes no sense. If the argument is that you can score more with a pick Four or a superfecta, the counter to that is Just Load up on one race. Just be $500 for the win, or $1000 on the exacta.

Doesnt this make more logical sense? The more races you have to handicap the more chances to go wrong. Handicap one race and hammer it makes more sense.

But all these guys; Beyer, Christ, and some others Liftin? They all say to go for the exotics. This is complete B.S.

Only one who said to keep it simple: Hammering Hank. he was going for the exacta I think.

[the little guy]

With all the clout and publicity that Beyer has, what is there to keep him from publishing the horses he DOES NOT like while privately betting the one's he DOES like?

What keeps him and all 'pickers' honest?

Congratulations, you are the winner of most ridiculous post of the day.

But I will answer you.....his integrity.

Look the word up because it is unlikely you know what it means.

[the little guy]

Beyer is obviously a great writer and has done much to promote the game. I have to criticisms though:

A) I assume he makes or made a living at betting horses. Why on earth would a true gambler give away his picks in public print? This makes no sense to me.

I thought it funny that after Hammering Hank came out early in the week for AP Warrrior, suddenly many public cappers started jumping on that bandwagon. Like lemmings. Makes sense from their pt. of view: wait for one gguy to toss out a name then jump all over that one. THe less said the better.

B) Why are he and many of the other public handicappers encouraging people to play exotics? This seems like an obvious shill for the tracks.

If you can handicap one race fairly well, why would you risk it by handicapping more than one race to score a daily double? Wouldnt it be better to place all your analysis time/energy on one race and call that correct?

It makes no sense. If the argument is that you can score more with a pick Four or a superfecta, the counter to that is Just Load up on one race. Just be $500 for the win, or $1000 on the exacta.

Doesnt this make more logical sense? The more races you have to handicap the more chances to go wrong. Handicap one race and hammer it makes more sense.

But all these guys; Beyer, Christ, and some others Liftin? They all say to go for the exotics. This is complete B.S.

Only one who said to keep it simple: Hammering Hank. he was going for the exacta I think.

But suddenly a new contendor has emerged!

So, according to you, who knows absolutely nothing about these guys, Beyer, Crist ( he's not Jesus ) and Litfin are lying when they say they all go for the exotics. Really? How much time have you spent at the track with them? Are you privy to their betting records?

I don't spend much time at the track with Dave Litfin, but I have spent literally thousands of hours at the track, and on the phone during racedays, with both Andy Beyer and Steve Crist. I know their opinions and how they bet and I can absolutely guarantee you that a HUGE percentage of their plays are in exotics.

You would do a lot better in talking about things you know about than making unfair conjectures about things you know nothing about. Steve Crist and Andy Beyer are champions of this sport and you have way more than a lot of nerve coming here and accusing them of deceiving the public.

And let me add...the rest of your post only demonstrates that you have a complete lack of understanding about how one goes about actually making money betting horses. The reason one plays exotics is because they can, and do, use them to increase their returns on good opinions. Luckily for you, Steve Crist's new book on exotics betting strategies comes out in early June. I've read it and I can say from reading your post that you could benefit greatly from studying it very hard.

[Indulto]

I assume he makes or made a living at betting horses. Why on earth would a true gambler give away his picks in public print? This makes no sense to me.JPIM,
Maybe tlg can tell you whether or not Beyer has or does make a living betting on horses, but I can only guess that today his wagers would have to be considerable for his gambling income to exceed that of a popular syndicated columnist and business owner of a data supplier to the DRF.

I believe Beyer and Crist only publish selections for the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup races, and I have no doubt that both are completely forthright about their selections. Obviously they both provide tremendous insight and we ignore it at our peril.

[JPinMaryland]

Can you then explain to me why it would make more sense to make a bet involving more horses? Betting only pays if you have better information, and/or better analysis and/or more time to handicap. :confused:

Wouldnt those factors go down if you had to play more than one race, or more than one horse??

Surely those guys must have explained that along the way.

[wonatthewire1]

He mentioned it when being interviewed on TV during the pre-race > strategy is something that I'm always looking at; new ways to approach a race especially in the age of smaller fields.

From the way Crist was talking, it sounded as though he concentrated on the pick-3 and 4's rather than exactas and tris but I guess we can wait to get the juice from the book. I've been playing around with them recently and have been doing relatively well with them.

Thanks for the update tlg > I'll be looking forward to seeing the finished product.

[classhandicapper]

My feeling is that he did a mediocre job, but I love his handicapping anyway.

1. He eilimated Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron because they were aggressive horses and he expected a very fast pace (and in the case of LR he also said he was too slow).

My thinking was very similar.

However, neither of those horses lost because of pace issues.

Lawyer Ron didn't lift a hoof and Brother Derek rated well and finished fine but lost enough ground to probably cost him second.

2. He liked AP Warrior, Point Determined, and Barbaro as off the pace horses.

I used all 3 on top too for the same reasons. But AP Warrior and Point Detemined ran like crap despite the fast/honest pace and Barbaro ran great DESPITE being close to it.

It really depends on how you judge success. I showed a profit on the race but think I did a horrible job. Just not so horrible that I didn't recongnize Barbaro as a major threat to move forward.

For myself, I never equate having the right horse for the wrong reasons as being successful. I feel the same about eliminating favorites that lose for reasons other than those I predicted. I prefer being right for the right reasons. My grandmother picks tons of winners for the wrong reasons.

[wonatthewire1]

If you are a decent "win" player, take a look at some of the serial payoffs for the pick three. Take a look at Philly Park on Saturday for races 8, 9, 10 and 11.

You can be alive on several tickets with those payouts as a decent win player > expand your thoughts and have some fun... :cool:

[the little guy]

He mentioned it when being interviewed on TV during the pre-race > strategy is something that I'm always looking at; new ways to approach a race especially in the age of smaller fields.

From the way Crist was talking, it sounded as though he concentrated on the pick-3 and 4's rather than exactas and tris but I guess we can wait to get the juice from the book. I've been playing around with them recently and have been doing relatively well with them.

Thanks for the update tlg > I'll be looking forward to seeing the finished product.

The book covers all exotics, exactas, tris and supers, along with all multirace bets, from doubles to Pick-6s. I have read it and I think it's excellent. Honestly, Steve has been an enormous help to me over the years as far as improving my betting is concerned.

[JPinMaryland]

still havent answered my two questions....

You see, I am a logical person. I have some graduate degrees including one in a science. Do well at logic tests, and all that, but I dont get it.

Maybe you can enlighten me.

Suppose you are sitting in the african bush w/ your friend and four animals are approaching that you can discern albeit dimly through the bush. Aardvark, Bison and Cheeta and Dingo.

Your friend tells you that there is a supreme being that will reward us based upon the amount we are willing to put down. And we can use any instruments we wish to visualize the animals, we do have a limited amount of time. We cannot take forever to shoot.

The being will give us a high powered gun to shoot, we can shoot at one two three or all four animals. But if we miss on any one animal we lose our stakes.

"Well what are the payouts?" You ask.

"He will pay us 10-1 on hitting one animal, 100-1 on hitting two and 1000-1 on three and 10,000 for hitting all four"

"How much did you say we can bet?"

"As much as you want"

"So we could put $10,000 on hitting just one animal.?

"Sure. But we can get 10,000 to one if we can hit all four, that would pay out a lot more.

"Why would it pay more? The being pays us on whether we hit or not.
and if we can use any instruments we want, doesnt it make sense that we would be able to discern one of these animals better than the other three. I mean given we have a finite amout of time, and a finite amount of number crunching power and a finite amout of information, it follows that we cannot see each animal as clear as the other animal...."

"I think we should go for the Bison, then the Dingo, then maybe Aardvark, but Im not sure. My grandma once owned an aardvark. And I like that double A thing going on. That would be neat.."

"Now hold on, doesnt it follow that my odds would go down the more animals I try for, if Like I Said the following hypothesis is true: ONE OF THESE ANIMALS MUST SURELY BE EASIER TO SEE THAN THE OTHERS. Now given that, wouldnt it be better to focus our attention, our time and our resources on hitting just one animal?

Go ahead, tlg, I am sure you taking your time to write a well thought out reply. I will patiently await your answer.... :sleeping:

[the little guy]

If you honestly don't know the answer then nothing anyone says to explain it will help. And, if you think you somehow deserve one, then you are kidding yourself, especially in light of the absense of a retraction by you for your out of line comments about Beyer and Crist.

But, just to give you a hint....a smart, and successful, bettor makes bets where the odds are in his favor.

[JPinMaryland]

I am prepared to wait till HELL freezes over for your reply, sir. :bang:

Well we're waiting, here's one I dont know the answer to:

WHen you're spending all those thousands of hours with Mr. Beyer. Does he ever give you some of his picks? :jump:

[the_fat_man]

My feeling is that he did a mediocre job, but I love his handicapping anyway.

1. He eilimated Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron because they were aggressive horses and he expected a very fast pace (and in the case of LR he also said he was too slow).

My thinking was very similar.

However, neither of those horses lost because of pace issues.

Lawyer Ron didn't lift a hoof and Brother Derek rated well and finished fine but lost enough ground to probably cost him second.

2. He liked AP Warrior, Point Determined, and Barbaro as off the pace horses.

I used all 3 on top too for the same reasons. But AP Warrior and Point Detemined ran like crap despite the fast/honest pace and Barbaro ran great DESPITE being close to it.

It really depends on how you judge success. I showed a profit on the race but think I did a horrible job. Just not so horrible that I didn't recongnize Barbaro as a major threat to move forward.

For myself, I never equate having the right horse for the wrong reasons as being successful. I feel the same about eliminating favorites that lose for reasons other than those I predicted. I prefer being right for the right reasons. My grandmother picks tons of winners for the wrong reasons.

As usual you're just about the only one on here who sees/says it as it is.

Anyone who claims to have figured the race to be run as it was, if full of it.

Hey, I'm on record for saying (directly, indirectly, in passing, seriously, jokingly, etc.) that I liked Barbaro. Maybe I should take credit as well. Of course, that was before the freak's race in the Bluegrass.
And when did mentioning 25% of the horses in a race qualify as 'picking a winner', or having an actual opinion?

The freak in the derby changed my perception of the race. So I passed.
At least I knew enough to throw out SNS. Funny how his many zealous supporters have suddenly gone quiet. Sort of like the many congnoscenti that were all over AOT.

Of course, all the pros out there figured that Keyed Entry would outrun the freak. YEAH. The freak actually was 'rating'; at least he wasn't fighting the jock like he was in the Bluegrass.

BTW, the freak also had an abscess in his foot; required soaking and eventually was cut out. Missed a few days of training, at least.

As for the 'pros': one publishes the form; and the other sells figures to the form (Liftin was a writer for a daily paper --whatever he does now).

JP's argument is following the same path as TLG's argument against Steve and BOXCAR. If they were able to make a living at the game, why would they do anything else?

They basically 'live' off the game, the way a scavenger lives off the dead.

They're like the dudes frequenting a bike forum that buy and flip bikes rather than actually riding. Well, the do ride, but 'cosmetically' only. Nothing like making a living off your passion. It's elemental.

[Tom]

I've read this thread three times now, and I must be blind....can someone point me to the posts that list the tiltles of the other landmark handicapping books written by posters here?
And danged if I can find the names of the newspapers that pay these guys to write about the game every week.

I'll tell everyone what a dope Beyer is to bet the way he does. Yup. I'll tell you all. Just as soon as I have a $50,000 year at the windows, and right after my second fourth book is published, and right after somebody pays me to make figures for them. Yup. I'll get back to you. Friday, maybe.

Seriously, why all the fuss? I assume we all picked our own horses for the Derby? PA and I both luaded Barbaro Friday night - I pointed out his desire pace/speed fig configuration,his improvement, then promptly threw him out.

And I had the opportunity to meet Andy twice - once at Laurel's sports book with a Sartin group ( he called me a moonie!) and onvce at a seminar he gave at OTB in Niagra Falls. Both times, he was a pleasure to talk to, very eager to share his opinions, and quick to point out why my horse had no shot!:eek:


TLG....I assume you have played with Mark Hopkins, too?
He did two seminars at FL and picked several good ones both times - he really impressed me as being a knowledgable guy, someone I would definately learn from. He knew more about my home track than I did.
I hope he writes a book someday - it would be a good one. He was good at putting each Beyer into context that expalined why it was good or bad -real insight into bias and race positions.

[Indulto]

I've read this thread three times now, and I must be blind....can someone point me to the posts that list the tiltles of the other landmark handicapping books written by posters here?
And danged if I can find the names of the newspapers that pay these guys to write about the game every week.Lawyer Tom,
Exactly which client are you defending or are you the prosecuting attorney? :D

Do I detect the Celebrity Defense again? Not that I would be able to recognize your name if I saw it, but you always struck me as the epitome of the anti-non-cyber-celebrity, e.g., having no image to protect outside of cyberspace, and the freedom to express an opinion outrageously on any subject at any time without real-world retribution.

Are you lobbying to be paid for your clever commentary? ;)

[the_fat_man]

I've read this thread three times now, and I must be blind....can someone point me to the posts that list the tiltles of the other landmark handicapping books written by posters here?
And danged if I can find the names of the newspapers that pay these guys to write about the game every week.

I'll tell everyone what a dope Beyer is to bet the way he does. Yup. I'll tell you all. Just as soon as I have a $50,000 year at the windows, and right after my second fourth book is published, and right after somebody pays me to make figures for them. Yup. I'll get back to you. Friday, maybe.

Seriously, why all the fuss? I assume we all picked our own horses for the Derby? PA and I both luaded Barbaro Friday night - I pointed out his desire pace/speed fig configuration,his improvement, then promptly threw him out.

And I had the opportunity to meet Andy twice - once at Laurel's sports book with a Sartin group ( he called me a moonie!) and onvce at a seminar he gave at OTB in Niagra Falls. Both times, he was a pleasure to talk to, very eager to share his opinions, and quick to point out why my horse had no shot!:eek:


TLG....I assume you have played with Mark Hopkins, too?
He did two seminars at FL and picked several good ones both times - he really impressed me as being a knowledgable guy, someone I would definately learn from. He knew more about my home track than I did.
I hope he writes a book someday - it would be a good one. He was good at putting each Beyer into context that expalined why it was good or bad -real insight into bias and race positions.

Makes perfect sense to me:

I'm able to make a living at the game

but

I write books about it

I sell figures

I write about it for newspapers

Bring back Steve and BOXCAR :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

Makes perfect sense to me:

I'm able to make a living at the game

but

I write books about it

I sell figures

I write about it for newspapers

Why are these things mutually exclusive? Where in the universe does it say you can't do it all? Obviously, Andy Beyer, like most successful people, has an EGO. What better way to feed that ego than to write a successful book, sell your figures to the BIGGEST racing publication on earth, etc. etc.

He's GUARANTEEING himself income just in case his handicapping heads south on him, OR one day he decides he doesn't want to bet for a living anymore. Forget about ego, what he did sounds like PERFECTLY SOUND decision making to me. Who else in that position WOULDN'T get himself some GUARANTEED $$$ in case you hit a year or two where you don't quite earn what you need to pay the bills through betting on horses???

Jeez. What is so difficult to understand? And why in the world would doing all these things make him any less effective of a horseplayer? The fact is it DOESN'T, and even if it did, you wouldn't know about it anyway, unless you too were a close personal friend of his, which I'm guessing by your post, you are not.

Bring back Steve and BOXCAR :bang:

Both those guys aren't difficult to find. They're out there if you want them. Boxcar is still here as a matter of fact. He posted in off-topic a week or two ago....

[Indulto]

Originally posted by JpinMaryland in response to the little guy:
I am prepared to wait till HELL freezes over for your reply, sir.

Well we're waiting, here's one I dont know the answer to:

WHen you're spending all those thousands of hours with Mr. Beyer. Does he ever give you some of his picks?JP,
You have NOT been reading “the little kid’s” PPs. When he is not the toughest “internet tough guy” in the room, he takes his ball and goes home. ;)
Originally posted by the fat man:
JP's argument is following the same path as TLG's argument against Steve and BOXCAR. If they were able to make a living at the game, why would they do anything else?

They basically 'live' off the game, the way a scavenger lives off the dead.

They're like the dudes frequenting a bike forum that buy and flip bikes rather than actually riding. Well, the do ride, but 'cosmetically' only. Nothing like making a living off your passion. It's elemental.tfm,
You have to wonder why tlg didn’t just put steverr on hold and allow others access to that supposed racing insider’s viewpoint. Maybe he just wasn’t the RIGHT insider. Littlest “internet tough guy” or Insider Elitist? :D

To be fair, I too had doubts about the text from both those posters. While I found his initial challenges to each one based on his experiences to have enhanced the discussion, the relentless pursuit by the toughest “internet tough guy” not only discouraged their participation here, it nearly started a riot, and it took away any possibility for others to continue to take whatever they considered worthwhile from those posts.

[Indulto]

Originally posted by the little guy(1)in response to michiken:
Congratulations, you are the winner of most ridiculous post of the day.

But I will answer you.....his integrity.

Look the word up because it is unlikely you know what it means.tlg,
Did I detect new restraint on your part today? You were as insulting as ever, but no nasty labels were pasted. I’m very impressed.
Originally posted by the little guy(2)in response to JPinMaryland:
You would do a lot better in talking about things you know about than making unfair conjectures about things you know nothing about. Steve Crist and Andy Beyer are champions of this sport and you have way more than a lot of nerve coming here and accusing them of deceiving the public.

And let me add...the rest of your post only demonstrates that you have a complete lack of understanding about how one goes about actually making money betting horses. The reason one plays exotics is because they can, and do, use them to increase their returns on good opinions. Luckily for you, Steve Crist's new book on exotics betting strategies comes out in early June. I've read it and I can say from reading your post that you could benefit greatly from studying it very hard.Watching you circle the playground -- but still refusing to share your ball – it occurred to me that you might be fibbing about putting me on hold. In your duties as designated Beyer defender – and now Crist promoter – I know that you might not be missed, but you would never be remiss.
So, according to you, who knows absolutely nothing about these guys, Beyer, Crist ( he's not Jesus ) and Litfin are lying when they say they all go for the exotics. Really? How much time have you spent at the track with them? Are you privy to their betting records?

I don't spend much time at the track with Dave Litfin, but I have spent literally thousands of hours at the track, and on the phone during racedays, with both Andy Beyer and Steve Crist. I know their opinions and how they bet and I can absolutely guarantee you that a HUGE percentage of their plays are in exotics.By George, thanks for making it clear that you don’t spend thousands of hours talking to Jesus. Otherwise I would have asked you if he spoke with a Yiddish accent so we could get closure on the s-word dilemma.

Here’s MY question: With all the time you spend on racedays with both your DRF horseplaying heros (and I agree they are), should we consider you still part of the dynamic duo, a member of the terrific trio, or as the super singleton? Given all that discussion of selections, exotic ticket structuring, wager placement, ticket cashing, and winnings spending, where do you find the time to visit this board and distribute your venom?

[PaceAdvantage]

Indulto, if you think you're helping, YOU'RE NOT! I've had enough of the personal stuff.

I'm so tired of the petty bullshit around here. Take it to email or private message.

If someone insults your friend, are you not going to stick up for your friend? Folks around here sometimes take great liberties posting about people in the public eye, people these folks DON'T KNOW A THING ABOUT, except what they THINK they know. And what they THINK they know is 90% wrong.

Then when someone like TLG comes along and calls them out on the bullshit they are posting, people like YOU take offense? Why is that?

Better yet, don't bother answering. After seven years of doing this, I already know the answer.

[JohnNUtah]

Too bad you have to wade thru tons of this bs just to read the relevant horse racing posts.

[Bruddah]

It's a sad day when people, who are trying to improve this sport, while human and not perfect, are disparaged for their efforts, successes, failures and opinions. Just because someone feels like spewing a little venom. Sometimes, the internet and these open forums are used to hide. In real life, we cover over our nastiness with a suit and a smile, because we don't have the kahunas to say it to someones face. Their is no doubt in my mind, that most individuals would present themselves differently, if face to face with Beyer, Chris, Litfin, et al. Then again, maybe not?

I am through preaching to the choir.

Amen, Bruddah

[Hank]

Pull up my post, I have been saying for WEEKS that Barbaro would relax and finnish BIG in the derby and that he was THE horse to beat and why.:cool:

[twindouble]

It's a sad day when people, who are trying to improve this sport, while human and not perfect, are disparaged for their efforts, successes, failures and opinions. Just because someone feels like spewing a little venom. Sometimes, the internet and these open forums are used to hide. In real life, we cover over our nastiness with a suit and a smile, because we don't have the kahunas to say it to someones face. Their is no doubt in my mind, that most individuals would present themselves differently, if face to face with Beyer, Chris, Litfin, et al. Then again, maybe not?

I am through preaching to the choir.

Amen, Bruddah

Who better to kick around other than the Pro's. Happens every year.
I would say they are thick skinned enough to handle any criticism they get, if not they aren't really Pro's are they?

Besides I've got other things to concern myself with, like that Bear. When ever he comes through my yard he dumps on my lawn, do you think he's trying to tell me something?

T.D.

[PaceAdvantage]

Who better to kick around other than the Pro's. Happens every year.
I would say they are thick skinned enough to handle any criticism they get, if not they aren't really Pro's are they?

It's one thing to criticize the man's writing, or his selections, or even his figures. But to start saying "well, I think he doesn't win, or he writes books because he can't support himself wagering, or blah blah blah" is just asinine.

[twindouble]

It's one thing to criticize the man's writing, or his selections, or even his figures. But to start saying "well, I think he doesn't win, or he writes books because he can't support himself wagering, or blah blah blah" is just asinine.

For some it's their nature to attack the guys on top, does that make it right of course not. When I was rolling really good with the horses those that didn't know what I was doing accused me of being part of the "under world", you know fixing races, buying jocks, whatever they could imagine. :lol: Like the TLG said, those that were close to me knew exactly what I was doing, what everyone was saying had no factual bases at all. I busted my butt to stay on top of the game and ran a business on to boot. They had no clue what I was involved and not anytime in my racing career did I go out of my way to prove them wrong. Why bother?

Like I said before, I don't envy your position trying to keep all of us in line. ESP me, when it comes to where I post and how. :D

T.D.

[Indulto]

... when someone like TLG comes along and calls them out on the bullshit they are posting, people like YOU take offense? Why is that?

Better yet, don't bother answering. After seven years of doing this, I already know the answer.PA,
Posting here is a privilege and it’s your responsibility -- and privilege -- to determine who posts here, what they can say, and how they can say it.

I have no problem with that. You’ve been reasonably impartial during the time I’ve been coming here, and I assume your seven years experience is telling you that your intervention is now required. I look forward to uniform application of your discretion in the future.

I WOULD be interested, though, in learning why you think I take offense when tlg calls folks out for posting bullshit. If you are more comfortable with PMs for such discussion, that’s fine with me.

BTW what happened to my post responding to your post #20 in the “Travis” thread?

[PaceAdvantage]

I've been actively pruning some threads lately of posts I deem to be potentially off topic. Yours may have fallen into one of those categories.

Something needs to be done....things are a bit out of control lately.

[JPinMaryland]

Besides I've got other things to concern myself with, like that Bear. When ever he comes through my yard he dumps on my lawn, do you think he's trying to tell me something?

T.D.


Is Bear Fan still running? Or how about Gators and Bears? :jump:

[NYPlayer]

And I had the opportunity to meet Andy twice - once at Laurel's sports book with a Sartin group ( he called me a moonie!) and once at a seminar he gave at OTB in Niagra Falls. Both times, he was a pleasure to talk to, very eager to share his opinions, and quick to point out why my horse had no shot!:eek:

Being called a "moonie" is derogatory. So what your're saying is that you met Beyer, he called you a gullible cult worshipper, and then disparaged your selection. Is that it?

Great guy.

[Tom]

Being called a "moonie" is derogatory. So what your're saying is that you met Beyer, he called you a gullible cult worshipper, and then disparaged your selection. Is that it?

Great guy.

No, no. It was an inside joke - the Sartin guys were refered to as some kind of cult back then. When I met him, I was standing with Howard, who started off the conversation saying.....The moonies meet Beyer...where are the cameras! and he said something to the effect of are you a moonie too? Smiling while he said it.
He was a great guy - very interesting to meet.

[PaceAdvantage]

Very nice deflection Tom. You are a smooth one....

[NYPlayer]

It's one thing to criticize the man's writing, or his selections, or even his figures. But to start saying "well, I think he doesn't win, or he writes books because he can't support himself wagering, or blah blah blah" is just asinine.

Speculative? Yes. Asinine? No. There's good reason to believe that Beyer is no longer at the top of his game. The salient points are:

1. He admitted that he was losing in his last book which was published, I believe, in 1993. Yes, I know he made a couple of scores in the double triple and he believed that such exotic bets were the way a player could get an edge, but overall the book was very pessimistic.

2. Recently he granted an interview (2003) in which he decribed his handicapping past and present:

"It was a tremendous edge to have the figures at a time when most people didn’t use them or even believe in them." "...I had that advantage for many years." "...it’s become much, much more difficult to make a profit, certainly by using speed figures -- because they are now common currency." "...The major factors in my handicapping are obviously that I remain very figure-oriented, but I can’t rely on them principally the way I used to just because the value has been drained from speed figure play".

So if he can't rely on them, how's the man making crusher scores on a consistent enough basis to turn a profit?

Here's the entire interview:

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/Swingtrading/commentary/satinterview/07312003-34036.cfm

3. He hasn't written a book since. Considering how much of a braggadocio he was in first books, I consider his literary absence quite telling.

Yeah, I could be wrong, but I'm willing to lay money on my opinion.

[the little guy]

Beyer hit a Pick-6 for $193K at Saratoga last summer.

[JPinMaryland]

Are you going to tell us, tlg, what was the best betting advice Beyer gave you? Can you give details? The amoutn of the bet is irrelevant, just the odds, and what type of reasoning went into the selection.

Id like to get an inside look at the man... :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

1. He admitted that he was losing in his last book which was published, I believe, in 1993.

Yup, what happened in 1993 (that's 13 years ago to the mathematically challenged), we must assume is also true today. I mean, that's just how life is, correct? Nothing ever changes.....:rolleyes:

So if he can't rely on them, how's the man making crusher scores on a consistent enough basis to turn a profit?

You're obviously writing from a position of authority. Why don't you tell us the answer instead of asking the question?

He hasn't written a book since. Considering how much of a braggadocio he was in first books, I consider his literary absence quite telling.

Of course you would, but to the rest of the rational world, there are more than enough reasonable explanations.

Yeah, I could be wrong, but I'm willing to lay money on my opinion.

Maybe someone can get Beyer to take you up on that offer...

[chickenhead]

I think this is the stupidest thread I've read in a long time.

Let me drop some profundity, here:

Don't be a playa hater! You gotta be a playa aprreciater!

Beyer has been and continues to be a major player. You're not. Get over it. Get over it!

You think people would pay to read your posts? People probably have you on ignore so they don't have to read them, and that's for free, mang! A whole lot of them are worth less than nothing. Your knowledge and advice is actually negative in value, taxing to read, confusing...and if properly understood, just plain wrong.

Nobody is debating your Derby picks because no one bothered enough to care who you picked. No one debates your figures because no one cares what they are, or if they exist. No one has bought your book on handicapping, because you couldn't fill up a cocktail napkin with original witty thought, much less 200 pages.

Loooooooooooooooooooooosers!

Move on already.

(ok, now I feel as if my 30 minutes spent reading this thread has been redeemed. TYIA PA for your forbearance. P.S. other than the fact that I am not a player hater, all of the above applies to me as well, of course)

[JPinMaryland]

How come every time they interview one of these pundits, all I ever hear is: "Play the exotics. Play the pick six. Play the superfectas." Same thing every time.

What the hell kind of strategy is that? SHouldnt there be some sort of betting strategy for different types of races? Some races have lots of chalk, some have one heavy favorite.

Isnt that odd? Or maybe I havent read enough of their books. :confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

How come every time they interview one of these pundits, all I ever hear is: "Play the exotics. Play the pick six. Play the superfectas." Same thing every time.

That's odd. I don't recall that being drilled into my head every time I read an article....but then again, I've never been much of an exotics player....

What does this all mean?

[Indulto]

Originally posted by NYPlayer:
Here's the entire interview:

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site...12003-34036.cfm (http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/Swingtrading/commentary/satinterview/07312003-34036.cfm)
NYP,
Thanks for the link. The following Beyer statements caught my eye:
‘I think that most horseplayers will tell you they’ve had a successful year, it’s not because they have been brilliant at grinding day-in and day-out profits, but because during the course of that year, they have made a certain number of big scores that more than compensate for all the inevitable losses along the way.

…I will always look at exactas and trifectas and all the exotics and say, “Is there a way to turn this opinion into a crusher score?”

And sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t but the good thing about the risk/reward ratio in horse racing is that you can hit big and at the same time you can keep your risks under control. I mean if I were to have by far the worst year of my handicapping, it’s not going to ruin me or change my lifestyle because the risks I’m taking are relatively restrained compared to the potential gains.’
Originally posted by the little guy:
Beyer hit a Pick-6 for $193K at Saratoga last summer.I’m sure that statement is true, but we still have no idea how much was invested on that and other similar wagers that were or were not profitable over some designated time period. What has actually been established beyond the fact that Beyer has a bankroll which enables him to take full advantage of his excellent handicapping and wager structuring skills by covering sufficient combinations in a manner that most of his competition obviously cannot?

On the other hand, who doubts that Beyer’s skill exceeds that of the lone winner of the multi-million dollar BC Ultra Pick-6 using an $8 ticket that included a Beyer selection for that reason alone? Has anybody heard any more about him since?

What is truly enviable about Beyer’s horseplaying is that he is well-compensated for the time he spends at the track regardless of how successful he may be at the windows. But assuming the above score contributed to an annual profit returning at least $25 per hour spent, i.e., a $50K year at the races full-time (which he has already proven is worth writing about), then who could deny that Beyer is as good or better than he once was.

[wonatthewire1]

It looks like a few posters are looking for the answer to the winning at the races where there is a possibility that many more than one approach is viable.

That is understandable, I'm sure that many here have gone through that thought process and some point in their handicapping life.

But the reality is that there can be a multitude of paths to take, and choosing a path does not lead to positive results all of the time.

The reason why those "top" handicappers choose to move to exotic wagering is because the game has changed, information is readily available and the race track has become a place where the regular player is competing against others with similar information and increasingly higher levels of "better" strategy. This is where their edge lies and that is understandable.

We all want shortcuts in getting to our goals, yet, in handicapping, those avenues have been picked clean. And experience will teach you that; it depends on your own personality to determine if you'll learn your own way or give up.

When Beyer wrote the "$50,000" per year book, that was a very high amount of money to be making in most professions > but the convo is stuck on that amount as if it is stagnant and in stone. And someone else mentioned that the last book Beyer wrote was in 1993 > that could very well be the year that the figs were first published in the DRF on a regular basis (going on memory) so in reality, his figs income more than compensated for any money he would be making on a book. But people don't always think those kinds of things through...

So, it would be rather sophomoric for me to criticize one of the true giants of the game > better to listen and learn and find my own path to my goals.

[pandy]

Althought I disagree with Beyer's assessment of Barbaro's chance of winning the Triple Crown, Andy Beyer is a great turf writer. His column is the best and he wrote a groundbreaking book "Picking Winners." And his Beyer Speed Figures are considered the benchmark in the sport. Beyer deserves a lot of credit for what he has accomplished, which in my opinion is more than any turf writer or professional handicapper in the history of racing.

Pandy

[Tom]

Very nice deflection Tom. You are a smooth one....

:confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

:confused:

Well, you took what was another attempt by NYPlayer to bash Beyer, and turned it around on him, because you knew information that NYPlayer wasn't privy to....namely, that being called a moonie was an inside joke initiated by Sartin himself.

So, there you go. Proof positive that all these critics who love to bash "racing personalities" never know the whole story and are working with, at best, incomplete information.

[Tom]

Oh, yeah, that's it! ;)

[NYPlayer]

Beyer hit a Pick-6 for $193K at Saratoga last summer.

Since your so privy to his betting action, perhaps you could share the specifics behind his handicapping. Some questions I have:

1. Did he have the ticket by himself, or was he part of a team? A 193k score split three or four ways isn't quite so sensational.

2. What horses did he key and in which races did he spread?

3. How much did the entire ticket cost?

Also, perhaps you could let us in on how his past three years have gone betting-wise. Has he been able to make at least 1 big score (>80K) in each year? Again I ask for some specifics please. Saying that he makes thousands and thousands isn't going to make the credibility standard.

I'm sure we'd all love to know.

I await your reply.

[PaceAdvantage]

Since your so privy to his betting action, perhaps you could share the specifics behind his handicapping. Some questions I have:

1. Did he have the ticket by himself, or was he part of a team? A 193k score split three or four ways isn't quite so sensational.

2. What horses did he key and in which races did he spread?

3. How much did the entire ticket cost?

Also, perhaps you could let us in on how his past three years have gone betting-wise. Has he been able to make at least 1 big score (>80K) in each year? Again I ask for some specifics please. Saying that he makes thousands and thousands isn't going to make the credibility standard.

I'm sure we'd all love to know.

I await your reply.


Where does one get off requesting such information? Just because you know the guy's name, you think this entitles you to an all-access pass? Here's an idea.....how about you divulge all of your personal wagering statistics first......

[NYPlayer]

You think people would pay to read your posts? People probably have you on ignore so they don't have to read them, and that's for free, mang! A whole lot of them are worth less than nothing. Your knowledge and advice is actually negative in value, taxing to read, confusing...and if properly understood, just plain wrong.

Obviously I have your attention.

No one debates your figures because no one cares what they are, or if they exist. No one has bought your book on handicapping, because you couldn't fill up a cocktail napkin with original witty thought, much less 200 pages.

I have no figures - never made that claim. Iv'e never written a book either.

Loooooooooooooooooooooosers!

Speak for yourself. I'll put your ROI up against mine any day.

[NYPlayer]

Where does one get off requesting such information? Just because you know the guy's name, you think this entitles you to an all-access pass? Here's an idea.....how about you divulge all of your personal wagering statistics first......

I have no public persona and no public reputation to defend. I don't sell speed figures, write books or newspaper coulmns.

If TLG is interested in defending his hero, and he has an inside track to Beyer, then he'll fulfill my request.

[chickenhead]

I actually wasn't talking about you NYPlayer, not specifically anyway. I've never took notice of your existence before just right now, and likely won't again.

Kind of proves my point, I guess.

[NYPlayer]

No, no. It was an inside joke - the Sartin guys were refered to as some kind of cult back then. When I met him, I was standing with Howard, who started off the conversation saying.....The moonies meet Beyer...where are the cameras! and he said something to the effect of are you a moonie too? Smiling while he said it.
He was a great guy - very interesting to meet.

Thank you for the clarification. So he didn't call you a "moonie". He asked if you were a "moonie". And coining the term was Sartin's idea, eh? Chuckles all around.

[the little guy]

I have no public persona and no public reputation to defend. I don't sell speed figures, write books or newspaper coulmns.

If TLG is interested in defending his hero, and he has an inside track to Beyer, then he'll fulfill my request.

Andrew Beyer is not my hero. He is my friend and horseplaying cohort. I don't have heroes, but if I did, I would save my hero worship for somebody worthy, like Michael Matz who saved the lives of children from a burning plane. Perhaps an embittered person such as yourself worships lessers but do not project your own shortcomings onto me.

Because you sadly have personal issues which prohibit you from accepting Mr. Beyer's success at the windows, I have seen you acknowledged his success as a writer, does not obligate me to offer any proof for what I know to be true. If it makes you feel better to deny the truth, be my guest, but I owe you nothing and am not at your disposal to fulfill your requests.

[Tom]

TLG,
Ihave two heros - Al Bundy and Homer Simpson.
Had I stayed over that night at Toga, you would have found that out! :eek::lol:

[the little guy]

Now, Al Bundy, there's a man worthy of hero worship.

As for Homer....I think that goes without saying.

[NYPlayer]

Andrew Beyer is not my hero. He is my friend and horseplaying cohort. I don't have heroes, but if I did, I would save my hero worship for somebody worthy, like Michael Matz who saved the lives of children from a burning plane. Perhaps an embittered person such as yourself worships lessers but do not project your own shortcomings onto me.

Because you sadly have personal issues which prohibit you from accepting Mr. Beyer's success at the windows, I have seen you acknowledged his success as a writer, does not obligate me to offer any proof for what I know to be true. If it makes you feel better to deny the truth, be my guest, but I owe you nothing and am not at your disposal to fulfill your requests.

His success as a writer is a matter of public record. His performance at the windows is not. It's fine by me if wishes it to be that way. And if so, you do damage to your relationship with him by carrying on the way you have been on this board. Of course, you are no obligation to provide me with anything, nor will I ask again.

My opinion, based on his writing and statements, is that Beyer no longer has the success that he once had. There were 15 or so good years, and then a decline. His success since the early 90s, in betting primarily exotics, has only been sporadic. That's my opinion. I stick by it.

[the little guy]

You are just chock full of incorrect opinions. Your criteria, apparantly, for " carrying on " in neither shared by me nor Mr. Beyer. Perhaps if you had a reputation such as Mr. Beyer's, and it was impugned innaccurately by someone such as yourself, then I would guess even you would be happy to have friends defending you, especially to those with only the nerve to do it in the anonymity of the internet.

Your " opinions " on Mr. Beyer's success are inaccurate. Whether you like this or not is really irrelevant to me. I hope for your sake your opinions are considerably more accurate on the races. As you have handicapped this one poorly.

[the little guy]

I just hung up on Mr. Beyer, who believe it or not has visited this site, knows I go as " The Little Guy ", and believe it or not our friendship has not been damaged by anything I've written here. Just thought you would be delighted to hear that as clearly you were worried.

He did want me to let you know that he had NO partners in last summer's Pick-6. I'm sure that makes you feel better.

[NYPlayer]

I just hung up on Mr. Beyer, who believe it or not has visited this site...

He did want me to let you know that he had NO partners in last summer's Pick-6. I'm sure that makes you feel better.

Hey Mr. Beyer! Congratulations on the supereme score! Been a while hasn't it? BTW, you wrote a few years back you were betting some track in Iowa - I forget the name. Anyway, I was just wondering what kind of sucess you had there. I'd love to read all about it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey Mr. Beyer! Congratulations on the supereme score! Been a while hasn't it?

Later, wise ass....

[Valuist]

I just hung up on Mr. Beyer, who believe it or not has visited this site, knows I go as " The Little Guy ",

Now if Beyer was to actually post on this site, what nickname would he use?

a)Kingoftheworld
b)The "Post"man
c)Andicap---he's actually been here for a while
d)D.C.Figuremaker
e)Vet Scratch---at last the real identity is revealed

[PaceAdvantage]

In case anyone hasn't noticed, my tolerance for BS has gone down greatly the last day or two. Especially towards those trying to pass off opinion as fact....

Maybe it's me, but from where I come from, this does not qualify as an opinion:

My opinion, based on his writing and statements, is that Beyer no longer has the success that he once had. There were 15 or so good years, and then a decline. His success since the early 90s, in betting primarily exotics, has only been sporadic. That's my opinion. I stick by it.

The preceding bold type isn't an opinion. It reads as a statement of fact. But how can you have a statement of fact without any actual knowledge on which to base those facts?

[LemonSoupKid]

Beyer, but over the last 10 years I've been intensely following the Triple Crown, I can't remember him ever having any sort of big score in ANY of the races. If I am incorrect, I'd like to know what he hit. I realize it's tough to hit a lot of the races when you write for DRF and have to publish your opinion on all of them, but I can't recall even one winner he has had in a long time.

And if I hear that he deserves credit for this year's pick of Barbaro (2nd) with A.P. Warrior actually on top (worst selection I've seen in some years by many sharp horseplayers) I'll throw up on the spot.

LSKid

[JPinMaryland]

The preceding bold type isn't an opinion. It reads as a statement of fact. But how can you have a statement of fact without any actual knowledge on which to base those facts?


Honestly, what is the big deal? The guy prefaced it by saying it was his opinion. If I say "In my opinion, man did not land on the moon. " it is still an opinion.

One can have an opinion about whether a factual situation has occurred or not.

I only ask because you seem to have a real thin skin for criticism of a public persona. Gawd knows Beyer has been criticized before. What is the pt. of a public forum if you cant criticize a public handicaper? Within proper etiquette of course.

He is still a public handicapper is he not?

[PaceAdvantage]

One can have an opinion about whether a factual situation has occurred or not.

What factual situation are we talking about? This guy is making broad-based claims, not discussing one or two instances. He's basically saying Beyer has been a loser for the past 13 years with nothing substantial to back it up....

It just doesn't make for much, if any, productive discussion....

[Indulto]

...It just doesn't make for much, if any, productive discussion....PA,
How do you define productive discussion? Obviously people want to express their opinions in this thread including yourself. Hopefully, you won't consider this post any more personal than those I am quoting.
Originally posted by the little guy:
NYPlayer
I just hung up on Mr. Beyer, who believe it or not has visited this site, knows I go as " The Little Guy ", and believe it or not our friendship has not been damaged by anything I've written here. Just thought you would be delighted to hear that as clearly you were worried.tlg,
From your post, it isn’t clear to me whether it was NYP who was worried about any damage to your friendship with Mr. Beyer -- or yourself. In fact, I had wondered whether he was aware of -- and approved of -- the fact that you had mentioned his Pick-6 here, and whether that might have been why you were reluctant to provide further details. Thanks for satisfying my curiosity.
He did want me to let you know that he had NO partners in last summer's Pick-6. I'm sure that makes you feel better.It makes ME feel better. If NYP hadn’t pressed you, maybe we might never have learned even that much. Now, the question is: Does Beyer come here on his own or only after you’ve stirred up a hornet’s nest, and does he encourage your rebuttal technique?
Originally posted by PaceAdvantage:
...So, there you go. Proof positive that all these critics who love to bash "racing personalities" never know the whole story and are working with, at best, incomplete information.PA,
How can it be otherwise, even for non-critics? In Beyer’s case, tlg seldom shares insider insights unless he’s landing on someone. At least you now know Beyer has been here even if there was no “Kilroy” message, and that he is probably aware of your own efforts on his behalf.:cool:

[JPinMaryland]

Hurry up! They are dissing Dr. Roman in that other folder. Maybe you can nip that one in the bud.. :jump:

[the_fat_man]

We're still at this, huh?

We start by attributing a winning Derby selection to Beyer.

In another thread, we do likewise for TLG.

In both cases, it appeared that both actually selected the wiseguy horse from California.

Now, if memory serves me correctly, the budding speed handicapper DRUGS also went with the wiseguy horse as his pick (when the Cat was held out).

Can we expect another thread crediting DRUGS with a correct Derby selection?

While some have gone to excessive lengths in either critcizing or praising Beyer, the facts remain as follows:

1) It it beyond debate that Beyer makes/made a living as a journalist/author.

2) It is beyond debate that Beyer makes a living selling figures to the DRF.

3) It it NOT beyond debate that Beyer is a winning horseplayer.


Can he support himself SOLELY as a journalist/author? YES

Can he support himself SOLELY by selling figures? YES

Can he support himself SOLELY by betting the horses?

As he's been working as a journalist/author and figures generator for the past 30 years or so, who knows what the answer to the final query is.

He certainly makes money OFF THE GAME (with his products). That much is beyond contention.

Remind me, again, why I need to pay attention to either his figures or his opinions?

[twindouble]

Beyer, but over the last 10 years I've been intensely following the Triple Crown, I can't remember him ever having any sort of big score in ANY of the races. If I am incorrect, I'd like to know what he hit. I realize it's tough to hit a lot of the races when you write for DRF and have to publish your opinion on all of them, but I can't recall even one winner he has had in a long time.

And if I hear that he deserves credit for this year's pick of Barbaro (2nd) with A.P. Warrior actually on top (worst selection I've seen in some years by many sharp horseplayers) I'll throw up on the spot.

LSKid


I don't think it's fair to beat up on anyone over one race, ESP races with, 16,18 and 20 horse fields. I didn't make a dime in the Derby but I did just fine with the under card and at Belmont. I don't have a clue how much money Beyer or anyone else make betting on the horses and I don't care to know. That don't mean I won't respect their opinions or listen to their methods of handicapping.

I will say this, believe it or not when anyone around me made a good score I felt good for them, it just validated even more it's possible to make money playing this game. I don't envy what anyone does, I just slap them on the back and move on. To me, when you get lost in what others are doing your not paying attention to what your doing and I don't need to explain what results.

Good luck,

T.D.

[Tom]

Is there a full moon or what?
Who left the door open here - the nuts are blowing in from the garden.

You guys ever hear of masterbation? It is almost the same thing you are doing here, but we don't have to participate. Try it.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA,
How do you define productive discussion?

Does it really matter?

But, to answer your question, I'll borrow a line from the SCOTUS:

"I'll know it when I see it"

[PaceAdvantage]

Hurry up! They are dissing Dr. Roman in that other folder. Maybe you can nip that one in the bud.. :jump:

Not the same.

[JPinMaryland]

"I don't think it's fair to beat up on anyone over one race, ESP races with, 16,18 and 20 horse fields. .."

Well okay, you have a pt. But the man is a professional handicapper. Is he not? Why then cant we criticize a professional handicapper on a horse race discussion board? It's not like they're saying he has a horrible disease or his parents were goats or something. THey are criticizing his horse picking.

It would be like a Civil War discussion board where you cant criticize Gen. Lee's generalship.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well okay, you have a pt. But the man is a professional handicapper. Is he not? Why then cant we criticize a professional handicapper on a horse race discussion board? It's not like they're saying he has a horrible disease or his parents were goats or something. THey are criticizing his horse picking.

No JP, you're way off...

Have you been reading the posts? It's gone WAY beyond criticizing his pick for the Derby, or horse picking in general. It is heading directly towards character assassination, bordering at times on libel....

I wonder if some people even realize what it is they are writing at times. They are so quick to hit that reply button and spill words onto the screen, hoping that the "wit" they just "know" resides somewhere inside themselves will shine through on that computer screen...maybe this time, they'll get that ultimate "zinger" out there that will really show people how darn smart they really are....

"No two-bit published handicapper is going to outshine me dang nabbit......not tonight....."

Right?

[twindouble]

"I don't think it's fair to beat up on anyone over one race, ESP races with, 16,18 and 20 horse fields. .."

Well okay, you have a pt. But the man is a professional handicapper. Is he not? Why then cant we criticize a professional handicapper on a horse race discussion board? It's not like they're saying he has a horrible disease or his parents were goats or something. THey are criticizing his horse picking.

It would be like a Civil War discussion board where you cant criticize Gen. Lee's generalship.

Well sure you can criticize Lee's performance as long as it's historical "Fact". I don't get all wound up in what the public handicappers do or say, TLG says Beyer hit some big ones, well so have I over the years. What's the big deal? That don't mean I, Beyer, TLG or anyone else won't have losing streaks, it's the nature of the game. Besides, the worst thing anyone in the public eye can do is lie about their success, they won't be around very long. So, I trust TLG is telling the truth, he's a lot closer to Beyer and others than you or I are. So the whole argument becomes mute.

The only way anyone can measure their success gambling on the horses is as you know over the long term. The way I look at it is, I have enough to think about doing what I do rather than concern myself with public handicappers. I know what it takes and you can bet your bottom dollar they are working their butt off to stay where they are. That I respect.

T.D.

[rrpic6]

PA:

If Beyer can reply to questions about jockey's opinions by saying he never listens to "pin-heads", any derogatory comments directed his way in here seem mild. Seems like some people in here have a "man-crush" on Andy.

[twindouble]

PA:

If Beyer can reply to questions about jockey's opinions by saying he never listens to "pin-heads", any derogatory comments directed his way in here seem mild. Seems like some people in here have a "man-crush" on Andy.

I made that mistake, having a heated conversation with the wife, I said, "now don't be a pin head about this." With the look on her face, if there was a frying pan close by I would have got it in the head. :eek:


T.D.

[Art P]

picked AP Warrior on top, cant take credit for the win. Another Beyer loss and excuse

[PaceAdvantage]

PA:

If Beyer can reply to questions about jockey's opinions by saying he never listens to "pin-heads", any derogatory comments directed his way in here seem mild. Seems like some people in here have a "man-crush" on Andy.

You can call Andy Beyer a pin head all you want. Although it would get real boring real quickly, I would not have a problem with that at all...

As I said, read the posts again.....this is a completely different story....

[PaceAdvantage]

picked AP Warrior on top, cant take credit for the win. Another Beyer loss and excuse

This is fine too...a little lame....and it's been said a million times before, but again, I am not going to go nuts over comments like this. They are to be expected.....

People, please don't try and act like this is a board where nobody is allowed to say negative things about Beyer or any other racing "personality" A quick search in the archives will prove this clearly is not the case.

But the line has to be drawn somewhere....or else why bother having a moderated board?

[Indulto]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage(1):
Have you been reading the posts? It's gone WAY beyond criticizing his pick for the Derby, or horse picking in general. It is heading directly towards character assassination, bordering at times on libel....

I wonder if some people even realize what it is they are writing at times. They are so quick to hit that reply button and spill words onto the screen, hoping that the "wit" they just "know" resides somewhere inside themselves will shine through on that computer screen...maybe this time, they'll get that ultimate "zinger" out there that will really show people how darn smart they really are....

"No two-bit published handicapper is going to outshine me dang nabbit......not tonight....."

Right?
Originally posted by PaceAdvantage(2):
You can call Andy Beyer a pin head all you want. Although it would get real boring real quickly, I would not have a problem with that at all...

As I said, read the posts again.....this is a completely different story....

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage(3):
People, please don't try and act like this is a board where nobody is allowed to say negative things about Beyer or any other racing "personality" A quick search in the archives will prove this clearly is not the case.

But the line has to be drawn somewhere....or else why bother having a moderated board?PA,
I took your advice and read the thread again. I don’t wish to commit postercide, but either one CAN speak their mind and express an opinion here or one can’t.

What leaped out at ME was the appearance that you in particular, tlg as usual, and even CJ took offense on Beyer’s behalf pretty early on, got bent out of shape, and set both the tone and the bait for contrary and/or negative responses.

I don’t know whether all three of you have a personal relationship of some sort with Beyer, but you all seem to have taken this thread personally. And there’s nothing wrong with that, but be aware that, in the process, you didn’t come off as neutral as one would hope a board moderator would; and as you usually do.

Just my opinion,
Indulto

[JPinMaryland]

I thought I had read every post in the thread. Double checked it too and didnt really see what was the trip wire...

I would agree w/ what Indulto said above, to me it seemed like someone was hitting a sore spot with the Beyer stuff. Seemed inoccuous at the time... :confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

I don’t know whether all three of you have a personal relationship of some sort with Beyer, but you all seem to have taken this thread personally. And there’s nothing wrong with that, but be aware that, in the process, you didn’t come off as neutral as one would hope a board moderator would; and as you usually do.

A horseplayer can NEVER truly be neutral, now can he? I am no different.

As for a personal relationship....not only have I never talked to the man, but I've never even seen him in person from afar....

In fact, reading these words as I type them, if I were to take the leap of logic some have taken in this thread, I would have to come to the conclusion that Beyer doesn't actually exist. Would that be a reasonable opinion to have Indulto? I've based this opinion using logic similar to that employed by NYPlayer, wouldn't you say?

We've walked this road before people.

[cj]

...and even CJ took offense on Beyer’s behalf pretty early on, got bent out of shape, and set both the tone and the bait for contrary and/or negative responses.



Say what? This I can promise, I'm not getting bent out of shape over any internet post. And no, I don't know Mr. Beyer personally. I do admire what he has done and continues to do for the game. This is why I tend to defend him when others take the other side. If we had a few more journalists like him in this game, it would be A LOT better off. Instead we have him, and the rest are pretty much a bunch of ass kissers.

[LemonSoupKid]

there is no one near Randy Moss over the last 5 years. Whenever our thoughts coincide, I'm very content (haha, and they did with SNS). Too bad it didn't work out.

I could be biased, but when I compare him to Jerry B, Hank G, all the other espn guys (Beyer's been on a few times), including Gary Stevens, there is no comparison. Bailey and Stevens both had Lawyer Ron. Haha, Privman hit it this year, and he actually has been very solid, just a bit worse than Randy, methinks.

Good luck guys

LS KID

[Indulto]

If we had a few more journalists like him in this game, it would be A LOT better off. Instead we have him, and the rest are pretty much a bunch of ass kissers.CJ,
Who's kissing whose ass and why? Inquiring minds need to know! :lol:

Since you're separating journalist from published handicapper, it's safe for me to agree with that first statement, although I generally prefer Crist's seemingly wider range of interest -- except for poker, that is. Speaking of which, does anybody have any insight as to why the DRF is diverting Davidowitz's talents from horse racing to poker?

Beyer credits Davidowitz as a positive influence on his evolving as a horseplayer. I can honestly say that the latter had a similar effect on me though hardly with the same end result. IMO Davidowitz's analysis of Afleet Alex's Preakness performance was the clearest and most irrefutable justification for betting a horse in its next start that I have ever read.

I sure hope we haven't lost him to the card-carrying crowd forever, but does Davidowitz's defection denote detection of racing's destined demise at the hands of card-playing converts who prefer to confine confiscation of their capital to casinos courting them with less conspicuous consumption?

[PaceAdvantage]

Speaking of which, does anybody have any insight as to why the DRF is diverting Davidowitz's talents from horse racing to poker?

Beyer credits Davidowitz as a positive influence on his evolving as a horseplayer. I can honestly say that the latter had a similar effect on me though hardly with the same end result. IMO Davidowitz's analysis of Afleet Alex's Preakness performance was the clearest and most irrefutable justification for betting a horse in its next start that I have ever read.

I sure hope we haven't lost him to the card-carrying crowd forever, but does Davidowitz's defection denote detection of racing's destined demise at the hands of card-playing converts who prefer to confine confiscation of their capital to casinos courting them with less conspicuous consumption?


I believe this subject would best be discussed under a NEW TOPIC....