Derek LOST a Right Shoe in the race

[BeatTheChalk]

So who knows. And umm the 18 post .. On to Maryland

[Valuist]

If he wins at Pimlico, I'm sure Hendricks will say it was the shoe that cost him the Derby, never mind the fact he elected to have his own horse lose numerous lengths by taking the 18 post.

[Sailwolf]

If he wins at Pimlico, I'm sure Hendricks will say it was the shoe that cost him the Derby, never mind the fact he elected to have his own horse lose numerous lengths by taking the 18 post.

So lets wait until 2 weeks from now to talk about a possible triple crown winner for 2006

[Pace Cap'n]

If he wins at Pimlico, I'm sure Hendricks will say it was the shoe that cost him the Derby, never mind the fact he elected to have his own horse lose numerous lengths by taking the 18 post.

I didn't follow the draw. Do you recall his options?

[pandy]

I not surprised that the media and many fans and writers are conceding the triple crown to Barbaro. Every time a horse wins the Derby impressively everyone seems to think that it's easy to win the next two. But this time it will be even tougher than usual for Barbaro. First of all, this is a very tough crop. Second, the two other top colts, Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek both had impossible trips. Brother Derek was amazing. The horse was anywhere from 6 to 10 wide the entire race, steadied twice and lost a shoe, and he still was digging in at the finish. I can't believe people don't realize that if Barbaro had post 18, and Brother Derek had post 8, Brother Derek would've won the Derby. Barbaro was visually impressive, but he had a perfect trip and his two main challengers had rough trips. And now people are saying that the pace was brutal. Nonsense. In the past 10 years, 6 Derbys had faster paces than this years. Barbaro was very good, but he had luck on his side as well.

Pandy

[fergie]

Pandy,
You could be right! We'll get somewhat of an answer to that in about 3 weeks. A well thought-out and stated post. I can hardly wait to see what happens.
Fergie

[Joe L.]

I not surprised that the media and many fans and writers are conceding the triple crown to Barbaro. Every time a horse wins the Derby impressively everyone seems to think that it's easy to win the next two. But this time it will be even tougher than usual for Barbaro. First of all, this is a very tough crop. Second, the two other top colts, Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek both had impossible trips. Brother Derek was amazing. The horse was anywhere from 6 to 10 wide the entire race, steadied twice and lost a shoe, and he still was digging in at the finish. I can't believe people don't realize that if Barbaro had post 18, and Brother Derek had post 8, Brother Derek would've won the Derby. Barbaro was visually impressive, but he had a perfect trip and his two main challengers had rough trips. And now people are saying that the pace was brutal. Nonsense. In the past 10 years, 6 Derbys had faster paces than this years. Barbaro was very good, but he had luck on his side as well.

Pandy
BD definitely had the worst of it going wider and widest, and throwing a shoe, but other than Desormeaux tugging SNS to the inside shortly after the break, I didn't think his trip was all that bad. I watched the replay about 6 or 7 times and I just don't see an awful trip for SNS. Barbaro did get perfect position early and held it throughout. Triple Crown talk after Derby is always premature and I never understand it. Win the second leg, THEN let"s start talking TC. :cool:

[JPinMaryland]

"I can't believe people don't realize that if Barbaro had post 18, and Brother Derek had post 8, Brother Derek would've won the Derby."

Exactly. :ThmbUp:

BTW: when BroDerek threw the shoe he lost a part of his hoove with it. They are going to run him with a patch. They dont think it's too bad. I guess Pharlap ran w/a problem like that. Story is on one of the newsites.

" I didn't think his (SNS's) trip was all that bad"

But he was about 9 lenghts off the lead as they got to the first turn, he made up about 5 to get real close to Barbaro. I have to think about it in terms of pace etc. Hmm...

[pandy]

In a one mile race in a weaker field, I would agree that Sweetnorthernsaints trip wasn't that bad, but in a tough 20 horse field going 10 furlongs, that type of middle move is taxing. Plus coming off a big new lifetime top he may have left his best race in Illinois. But, on his best effort and a clean trip, I have to think that Sweetnorthernsaint is dangerous in the Preakness. Especially if he stalks and pounces, he is a very strong finisher. Personally, I have a feeling that Barbaro and Brother Derek are going to hook up early in a duel. They're both stalkers. I could see Brother Derek moving to the lead at the half and Prado will come to challenge at the three quarters or sooner. From that point we could have a real horserace. I could be wrong, but I'll be shocked if Barbaro wins the Preakness easily. Maybe in a dogfight, but not like the Derby because in the Preakness his main competition will not be 10 wide or buried in traffic, but right at this throat.

Pandy

[PaceAdvantage]

Barbaro was visually impressive, but he had a perfect trip and his two main challengers had rough trips. And now people are saying that the pace was brutal. Nonsense. In the past 10 years, 6 Derbys had faster paces than this years. Barbaro was very good, but he had luck on his side as well.

Yes, but you fail to mention that Barbaro makes his own trips because he is THAT good. A horse with that kind of running style and that kind of talent is ALWAYS the one to beat, especially in the Triple Crown. It's the style that wins at Pimlico, and it's the style that wins the BELMONT especially. And Barbaro is bred to RELISH the 1 1/2 mile distance in the Belmont, and THAT'S the race that has been the undoing of many a TC hopeful of recent history.

And the Derby pace wasn't SLOW by any means, and Barbaro was a lot CLOSER to the pace then many expected.

Barbaro ran the first quarter in about 23 2/5, followed by a 46 4/5 half. He ran evenly early, but he certainly wasn't running slow. He still managed to pull away and win by 6.5. He beat BD by 10 lengths. Do you honestly think BD would have beaten Barbaro with equal trips?

Is throwing a shoe really that big a deal? Unless he was injured when the shoe came off, I don't think it's that big a deal. Yeah, he went very wide, but did he go wide enough to make up 10 lengths?

[Joe L.]

In a one mile race in a weaker field, I would agree that Sweetnorthernsaints trip wasn't that bad, but in a tough 20 horse field going 10 furlongs, that type of middle move is taxing. Plus coming off a big new lifetime top he may have left his best race in Illinois.

Pandy
IMHO a taxing middle move is not a bad trip, big field or not. SNS just couldn't run with them early, made his move into contention and had nothing left for the finish. I certainly expected him to run better. You may be right about the regression off the Illinois effort.

[Joe L.]

Do you honestly think BD would have beaten Barbaro with equal trips?

Yeah, he went very wide, but did he go wide enough to make up 10 lengths?
No and No :cool:

[JPinMaryland]

Personally, I have a feeling that Barbaro and Brother Derek are going to hook up early in a duel. They're both stalkers. I could see Brother Derek moving to the lead at the half and Prado will come to challenge at the three quarters or sooner. From that point we could have a real horserace.

Can you say Bold Forbes and Honest Pleasure?

[pandy]

You make good points and yes, Barbaro deserves credit for his tractable speed and abiity to rate and finish. He's obviously a talented horse. But I strongly believe that the wide trip cost Brother Derek at least 10 lengths. Wide trips are the most underrated rough trip in racing. I used to run track in high school. Try running a mile and a quarter on the rail, then try running a mile and a quarter 6 wide and you will find that you will run far more than 2 seconds slower, and your heart will feel like it's about to explode. Brother Derek as also steadied twice and forced to alter course when a horse drifted out on him in the stretch. The amount of distance a horse is beaten is also misunderstood by handicappers. For instance, on my software handicapping system that I use and sell, we have a consensus box category called Early Speed which lists the top 3 Early Speed horses. This box has produced a steady profit at the two tracks I follow for about the past 10 months since we started it. The reason it shows a profit (on about 17% top winners) is that many of the winners pay huge prices. The highest price so far is $115.00, but there have been many in the $20 to $40 range. Why do they pay so high? Because most of them lost their last race by more than 10 lengths. Horses expend far more energy in certain types of trips than people realize. Barbaro's racing style does help him, but there are other colts that have that same stalking style, including Brother Derek. But the key here isn't just Brother Derek's rough trip, but also Barbaro's perfect trip. Harness racing handicappers, who generally understand trip handicapping better than thoroughbred players, know what I'm talking about. If the Derby was a trotting race, Barbaro was 2nd-over, and Brother Derek was 6 wide.

Pandy

[pandy]

I wonder of Barry Meadow or someone has an idea of what the approximate odds are of Barbaro winning the next two legs?

Pandy

[betchatoo]

IMHO there wasn't a horse out there that could have touched Barbaro last Saturday. He ran to a fast pace like he was working a 3 furlong breeze, exploded when asked and came out of the race looking like he could run the whole thing again. Brother Derek had trouble and had he gotten a perfect trip might have finished second, but he wasn't going to beat the winner.

Could all this change in 2 weeks at the Preakness? Of course it could, but if someone will give me 6-1, I will happily empty my wallet on Barbaro in the race.

[pandy]

What if Brother Derek is 6-1 and Barbaro 3-5? Who would you bet then?

Pandy

[Hank]

I threw out BD in the derby and that was a mistake,he's a better racehorse than I thought,but to say he would have beaten Barbaro with a good trip is overstateing it,I think He's second with a good trip period.Barbaro won the derby under a hand ride, Prado's level of encouragement in the stretch was workout like,and the gallop out WOW, head up still striding out LONG and fULL.I don't KNOW if Barbaro is a great horse but he looks like he COULD be one of the ones.I sincerly hope that brother derek rebounds with a strong and true race in the preakness becasue,"THE ONLY TRUTH COMES IN THE TEST":ThmbUp:

[Light]

A big knock for SNS was the Gotham. Couldn't get by Keyed Entry who ran last in the Derby. Came back to haunt him.If there is a big reason why Barbaro won't win the TC it's called Sharp Humor who ran 2nd last in the Derby. I watched the long stretch drive between Barbaro and Sharp Humor and it was a ding dong battle. If Barbaro hooks up like that in either the Preakness or Belmont,you will see a Birdstone type of horse pass him.

Barbaro has shown his vulnerability to me with Sharp Humor. IF Barbaro is this good,then so is Sharp Humor and nobody likes Sharp Humor.

[Valuist]

Brother Derek reminds me a lot of Snow Chief. A Cal bred who had won everything in SoCal then found the pace not to his liking in the Derby. He did turn the tables on Ferdinand in the Preakness, although Ferdinand's Derby was far less impressive than Barbaro's.

Any word on Sunriver? He ran a tremendous race in the FL Derby; at worst he was the second best horse and even Brad Free said he ran as good as Barbaro, taking into account the trip.

[Hank]

Your logic is flawed to put it mildly,the particulars of a given race can some times make it seem like horse A finnished close to horse B therefore A is of similar quality,these races with 3 year old races must be viewed with a big picture out look with regard to pace, post position, form cycle and pedigree ect. trust me not many think Sharp humor and Barbaro are of similar quality.

[GeTydOn]

All this BS about Ky Derby post position draw. The outside gate has NOT been a bad place to be. Its been proved in recent years. Those horses got a quarter mile to run before the first turn. It ain't like in the Florida Derby where Barbaro was stuck breaking from the outside fence with hardly a run to the first turn.

Maybe if he kept his shoes and was allowed to secure better position early his finish would have been better. But it was Barbaro who chased an honest Derby pace. It was Barbaro doing ALL the running at the end. No way Derek had such "trouble" that it cost him as many lengths as he was behind the winner.

:rolleyes:

[cj]

Any word on Sunriver? He ran a tremendous race in the FL Derby; at worst he was the second best horse and even Brad Free said he ran as good as Barbaro, taking into account the trip.

Peter Pan.

No way he ran as good as Barbaro. Being able to establish good position from the far outside at GP outweighs any trouble Sunriver had in the race.

[PaceAdvantage]

Those giving so much credit to BD neglect to factor in the following. With a better trip, BD would have had to have run faster earlier. Therefore, he most likely would NOT have been able to close as effectively as he did. This is why I am saying that the trouble BD encountered wasn't worth 10 lengths. 10 lengths is a LOT.

[Light]

Your logic is flawed to put it mildly,the particulars of a given race can some times make it seem like horse A finnished close to horse B therefore A is of similar quality,these races with 3 year old races must be viewed with a big picture out look with regard to pace, post position, form cycle and pedigree ect. trust me not many think Sharp humor and Barbaro are of similar quality.

My point is that it looked to me Barbaro was all out to pass Sharp Humor in the Florida and didn't exactly blow him away. Won by only 1/2 length.Why struggle with one horse when you can blow away 19 of the best 3yo's in the country ?

What makes horses look good is all relative with form cycles,track condition,pace scenarios,health etc. Barbaro had all these in his favor on KD day. Never showed that dominance before on Dirt. SM did SNS did. It's all relative.

[JPinMaryland]

No way Derek had such "trouble" that it cost him as many lengths as he was behind the winner.

:rolleyes:

well BroD went 11 wide on the turn. Those Ragozin people should be all over him next race.

[PaceAdvantage]

well BroD went 11 wide on the turn. Those Ragozin people should be all over him next race.

Now it's 11 wide? Next thing you know, we'll be reading how Brother Derek actually carried TWO jockeys on his back in the Derby....

[JPinMaryland]

Those giving so much credit to BD neglect to factor in the following. With a better trip, BD would have had to have run faster earlier. .

Not necessarily. WIth a better trip he would not have lost so much ground on the far turn.

[JPinMaryland]

Now it's 11 wide? Next thing you know, we'll be reading how Brother Derek actually carried TWO jockeys on his back in the Derby....

sorry it was 9 wide. Deputy Glitters was 11 wide.

If you notice BroD was like 5 wide on the back stretch to go to 9 wide on the turn. Dont you think he lost a hell of a lot of ground just doing that? :bang:

I havent done the math, but another guy claims that he was runnning the exact speed as Barb. at the end, the only difference was the ground loss in the turn. If BroD is finishing as fast as Barb. there is no reason to think he wont have a real shot at him in Preakness. I cant recall now, but I thought their finishing times in the derby prep were pretty comparable. ;)

Another thing, there's no guarantee Barb. runs this fast all the time. Is it reasonable to guess that had he run this fast in the FL dby he would have blown by Sharp Humour in the stretch? So I guess even Barb has good days and better days :confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

You do all realize that Barbaro ran the fastest last quarter mile ever in a Kentucky Derby since Secretariat. This after sticking fairly close to a quick early pace.

This doesn't impress you?

[JPinMaryland]

Time is relative, I think a lot of great closing runs have to do with being able to accelerate at the right moment. A quality Barbaro has, but the pace set up well for him, and no one was near him at that moment.

if you want to go by final times, Barbs Delight (2nd in 1967) is still finihsing 4 legnths in front of Barbaro.. :faint:

They dont make 'em like they used to.

SPeaking of which, I think both Hill Rise and The Scoundrel ran in the Derby prep only like 5 days before the main event. Wonder if they could have picked up any more lengths on NoDancer in that derby?

[toetoe]

First, if BD ran the superequine race some are claiming, he will bounce like a Flubber ball next time. Heck, Barbaro may bounce, too, but my thrust here is to debunk the belief that BD is the reincarnation of Little Current. Another site has a post that claims that BD lost 300 to 400 YARDS OF GROUND! :lol: :bang:

I tried to figure whether you could even lose 100 yards on turns totaling 880 yards, regardless of sharpness. Secretariat won the Belmont by almost 100 yards. So, in the simplistic world of cursory handicapping, switch posts with Barbaro, pull ahead by a pole, then stop whipping, as later you'll be able to brag, "He'd win by a hundred, but the kid didn't urge him."

Just a coincidence, maybe, but the last three Preakness runnings have been absolute blowouts. It makes sense --- have your horse almost 100% for the KD, then 100% for the Preakness. The Belmont will have to take care of itself.

[toetoe]

The source for the 300-to-400 yards math is TVG.

[JPinMaryland]

Randy Moss on ESPN said he guessed BroD lost 6.5 lengths on the turn. Probably not a bad estimate if we asssume he was 9 wide and with an ideal trip would be somewhere around the 2 or 3 path.Of course ideal is not easy to come by in a real race, but it works just for an estimate.

Thinking it over, BroD went 5 wide or so on the first turn and if we were to give him 2 lengths for that. PLUS the 6 1/2 he lost on the last turn. That makes 8 1/2 lengths. And he lost by what....?

8 1/2 lengths!! :lol:

I'm headin for the windows now.... :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

I believe the official chart reads 10 lengths, but what's 1.5 lengths between friends?

[cj]

I don't believe he lost anywhere near as much ground as the chart would indicate. Watch the replay closely and you'll see. The CD chart caller isn't very good, and routinely reports greatly exaggerated "wide" calls. Someone needs to inform him that 10 wide in the stretch doesn't really matter, it is how wide on the turn that counts.

Don't forget to throw in that Barbaro lost some ground as well.

[Valuist]

I'm convinced that the CD chart caller must work at dog tracks because he must using "dog path widths" to come up with the "xx wide" numbers he's getting. Must be the same person who charted GP about 10 years ago. Simple formula: subtract 4-5 paths from whatever they claim.

[Joe L.]

Just watched the replay again and I can't believe I missed this... Brother Derek actually pulled the starting gate around the track while tethered to the outside rail!!! Barbaro hitched a ride with the ambulance crew to the top of the stretch and then he started running!! There should be an investigation!!! :D

[fergie]

Cute!

[JPinMaryland]

I believe the official chart reads 10 lengths, but what's 1.5 lengths between friends?

you can look at the chart all you want, buddy. It's not ten. Look at the tape.

Sec's official chart says he won the derby by 2 1/2; but you can look at the replay and see it is almost exactly 2. Those charts are often based on the actual calls made in the race. I mean in Sec's case the track announcer calls him winning by 2 and 1/2 and it goes into the official chart that way.

Weird huh?

[JPinMaryland]

I don't believe he lost anywhere near as much ground as the chart would indicate. Watch the replay closely and you'll see. The CD chart caller isn't very good, and routinely reports greatly exaggerated "wide" calls. Someone needs to inform him that 10 wide in the stretch doesn't really matter, it is how wide on the turn that counts.

Don't forget to throw in that Barbaro lost some ground as well.

you may be right in all this, but also note that the official chart with beaten lengths has some gaffes in it as well. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

you can look at the chart all you want, buddy. It's not ten. Look at the tape.

Actually, we're both wrong. The official chart says 9.5 lengths. I mistakenly counted the 1/2 length for Jazil, forgetting about the dead heat.

Are you saying the official chart is wrong? The beaten lengths for the finish are taken directly from the photo finish equipment, they are not estimates by the chart caller. The FINAL beaten lengths are the most accurate figures (other then the running times) on a race chart.

[JPinMaryland]

well I knew you were wrong about the 10 because Ive been going over the chart and comparing it to the overhead shot of the horses, for quite awhile.

I didnt know that about the final beaten lengths being taken from the photo. That actually explains a lot because it's quite accurate. Especially as compared to the rest of the chart which has gaffes for the other pace calls (not the final beaten lengths)

Two additional pts.: 1) I dont think they used to do it that way (take final beaten lengths from the photo) because Sec. officially is credited with a 2 1/2 lenght win but the video clearly shows it's more like 2. In that case, the announcer actually says it's secretariat by 2 1/2 and thats the way it went into the books. :jump:

2) Even in the last derby there is rounding off errros. They say Bluegrass Cat is 6 1/2 back, it's not quite that. By the time we get to Bro.Derek it looks more like 9, but I'm trying to measure it off the screen and you say they have it down to a science, so... :confused:

[JPinMaryland]

Plus...WHEN THE HELL ARE YOU GOING TO TELL US ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED TO YOUR BETTING STRATEGY IN THE DERBY!!

This is my most anxiously awaited post on this board. That and tlg's Andy Beyer story. No really, it's your story. I know you were pissed but what happened? YOu had fingered the cat. No one else had. :jump:

I called you out on it. You insisted he was the horse. Then you said: Well I wasnt that big on him he was one of my standbys or something...

WHich I dont get. If you are playing an exotic with a 30-1 shot, why not throw him in? You cant say he's a possibility and leave him off an exotic. What happened Pace??

[PaceAdvantage]

There's a good reason why I remained mum....

If you were me, would you want to revisit that kind of pain?

Hell, at least I was honest, right? I could have said I killed the race and you all would have no reason to doubt me....

[pandy]

The aerial view from the blimp showed that Brother Derek was indeed very wide throughout and steadied twice. Because of the 20 horse field, he raced much wider than you'd normally see a horse race in this country. Another thing about Barbaro's performance which made it look more visually impressive than it was, when he made his move to the lead the horses he blew by were Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister, the two tiring speeds. As for Brother Derek being wide into the stretch, yes it does cause ground loss, plus it allowed Barbaro to establish tactical position. If you think that being wide fanning for home doesn't cost you ground, then you think that if Brother Derek is positioned right alongside of Barbaro coming into the stretch he still loses by 10, obviously not true.

Pandy

[LemonSoupKid]

The aerial view from the blimp showed that Brother Derek was indeed very wide throughout and steadied twice. Because of the 20 horse field, he raced much wider than you'd normally see a horse race in this country. Another thing about Barbaro's performance which made it look more visually impressive than it was, when he made his move to the lead the horses he blew by were Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister, the two tiring speeds. As for Brother Derek being wide into the stretch, yes it does cause ground loss, plus it allowed Barbaro to establish tactical position. If you think that being wide fanning for home doesn't cost you ground, then you think that if Brother Derek is positioned right alongside of Barbaro coming into the stretch he still loses by 10, obviously not true.

Pandy

You're right on. What kind of effort did you think that took out of BD's tank? Barbaro is supposedly fresh, but I still don't buy this freshness thing, these horses get 2 weeks off, they're quality ... the real question is, "Will Barbaro decide to run again on Preakness day, in a much different scenario?"

I'm skeptical of that. Two of my all time favorites ran their hearts out in the Derby, Point Given and Afleet Alex (well, at least Alex did for sure), and they came back with dominating performances in the last 2 races. SNS could be totally written off and have a great performance. I don't think people will write off BD.

Plus, everyone is about Barbaro, and in general, they get far too excited about potential triple crown winners. This crop is GOOD. That next race will be the real deal. What say you?

LemonSoupKid

[pandy]

I don't think that Barbaro or Brother Derek will bounce. I'm not a big believer of the bounce theory in regards to young horses anyway. It works much better with older horses and horses with a lot of starts. These are top quality colts and they are lightly raced. The Derby was the first real tough race for Brother Derek, he won the Santa Anita Derby under wraps. Both are big, strong colts and I think both will run big in the Preakenss. As for Sweetnorthernsaint, if he runs in the Preakness he could also run a big race.

Pandy

[cj]

I see Thorograph has Brother Derek running the second fastest race in the Derby, a -0.5. Barbaro -2.5. Bluegrass Cat was a 1, Steppenwolfer was a 2.5, and Jazil a 3.75.

Obviously Brother Derek's figure includes a lot of ground loss, as he matched his previous lifetime best on TG.

[LemonSoupKid]

Barbaro-Brother Derek-SNS trifecta ... no?

i know it's gambling, and bernardini will be there, with Like Now, but honestly are they anywhere near the speed of the top 3?

LSK

[Princequillo]

A big knock for SNS was the Gotham. Couldn't get by Keyed Entry who ran last in the Derby. Came back to haunt him.If there is a big reason why Barbaro won't win the TC it's called Sharp Humor who ran 2nd last in the Derby. I watched the long stretch drive between Barbaro and Sharp Humor and it was a ding dong battle. If Barbaro hooks up like that in either the Preakness or Belmont,you will see a Birdstone type of horse pass him.

Barbaro has shown his vulnerability to me with Sharp Humor. IF Barbaro is this good,then so is Sharp Humor and nobody likes Sharp Humor.

You can't use Sharp Humor's Derby as a measure. He was hurt in the race.

[JPinMaryland]

There's a good reason why I remained mum....

If you were me, would you want to revisit that kind of pain?

Hell, at least I was honest, right? I could have said I killed the race and you all would have no reason to doubt me....

But I think we all missed on the derby. That is except for Hank who apparently hit. Which is good, at least someone hit.

I too was mad I missed the cat, but after all is said and done the excitement was well worth the money spent.

From another stand pt. it helps to revisit stuff in order to avoid errors the next time we make bets. This is especially true for me as I look at my exotic plays and think "Now why the hell did I leave so and so off?" I'm thinking more and more that I should have really paid more attention to leaving longshots with any shot at all on the ticket; while spending more attention to trying to finger those with absolutely no shot.

Hindsight is 50-50; but I honestly think if we revisit what happened we maybe better able to cash next time. I sure as hell hope so and wont let stupid Bluegrass cat beat me again.

It'll probably be Bernardini that beats me... :bang:

[JPinMaryland]

You can't use Sharp Humor's Derby as a measure. He was hurt in the race.

Yep, and you know what if he doesnt get hurt, it might have changed the shape of the derby in large measure. Maybe Barb. still wins [insert mandatory bow in Barbaro's direction] but SH might have put more pressure on those horses in the second wave... Bluegrass Cat and Showing Up were just crusing around that last turn,w/ no pressure on Barbaro.

[KingChas]

Barbaro-Brother Derek-SNS trifecta ... no?

i know it's gambling, and bernardini will be there, with Like Now, but honestly are they anywhere near the speed of the top 3?

LSK

I read the article on Bro Derek losing the shoe but I also read he lost part of his hoof with it.On two weeks rest I wouldn't be so sure this horse will be on the board at all.I had "BD" on my trip tick in Derby so I don't have anything against him.But the trainer may be guilty of TC race fever.Too Soon? :confused:

[Observer]

Didn't Birdstone lose a shoe in the Derby before coming back to win the Belmont?

[Ron]

I think Empire Maker did too.

[KingChas]

I'm more concerned about the hoof (hoove?)I don't know how much he lost or how this would relate to a human.But i'm thinking if I ripped off my little toenail I wouldn't be able to walk/run the same.Or if say my shoe split and I super glued it together would it feel right?I just don't feel Barbaro/Brother Derek exacta is a lock. And if Sweetnorthernsaint becomes "Sweetsoursaint" we will be looking at very nice priced triple with a heavy favorite.God Bless the BridgeJumpers this race!

As Yogi said "You know you never know!" :D

[twindouble]

I'm more concerned about the hoof (hoove?)I don't know how much he lost or how this would relate to a human.But i'm thinking if I ripped off my little toenail I wouldn't be able to walk/run the same.Or if say my shoe split and I super glued it together would it feel right?I just don't feel Barbaro/Brother Derek exacta is a lock. And if Sweetnorthernsaint becomes "Sweetsoursaint" we will be looking at very nice priced triple with a heavy favorite.God Bless the BridgeJumpers this race!

As Yogi said "You know you never know!" :D

I think to run theses scenarios is a mistake to begin with, wait until you know who's in the race then get whatever information you can gather up and take it from there. You would be surprised how much prior opinions influence your thinking come race day. In most cases it's wrong.

T.D.

[KingChas]

TD , I'm following what your saying.My reply was to the Triple/Exacta bet of Barbaro/Brother Derek/Sweetn'saint.They will be huge underlays.As far as horses entered the only late edition that would shock me would be Discreet Cat. ;) Good Luck!-K.C.

[Valuist]

I finally watched a replay and saw the overhead view. Brother Derek had a horrible trip. Not only was he extremely wide but he got bumped wider just as the field turned for home. Also going into the turn, there was a group of 5-6 horses behind Barbaro who were starting a move (or trying to) at the same time, sort of a race within the race. And Brother Derek was definitely the most visually impressive of that pack and he was doing so while widest of that group.

The trend for the Derby winner to just about automatically win the Preakness is relatively new. There have been a number of horses who had poor Derby finishes but came back to win at Pim (Hansel, Snow Chief, Gate Dancer, Pine Bluff, Louie Quatorze all come to mind).

[KingChas]

OK, I guess I'm not getting my point across.

My question to the forum is....Wide Derby Trip and All .....
..... Is Brother Derek 100% Healthy For This Race after losing part of his hoove ????????

Triple crown races.The trainer/owner always say yes.

We shall see.................... :p

[KingChas]

Follow Up.Questions.

A]Why did Cigar head west to get ambushed by a short field?

B]Why did a very tired Seattle Slew head west after winning TC?

Answers............... Trainer/Owner not in that order....Ego Trips :cool:

[PaceAdvantage]

My question to the forum is....Wide Derby Trip and All .....
..... Is Brother Derek 100% Healthy For This Race after losing part of his hoove ????????

If indeed part of his hoof wall was injured or torn away when the shoe came off, then sure, there may be some problems. On the other hand, it may be as simple as patching the affected part of the hoof, and he may be able to run 100%

It all DEPENDS, as is so often the case in racing....anybody got a mole in the Hendricks barn?

[46zilzal]

A horse is essentially walking on a large toenail. A signficiant portion can be removed without discomfort. If the missing part is anywhere near the tender lamina, then you're in trouble.