Questions For Ernie Dahlman

[BMeadow]

I'll be in Las Vegas next week and plan to interview Ernie (the professional player profiled in a recent New York Times Magazine article) for an upcoming article in Meadow's Racing Monthly.

If you have questions you'd like me to ask, feel free to post them here, or send me an email at bmeadow@aol.com.

Thank you.

[Lefty]

Barry, hope I can couch this correctly: A 3-4% ROI is
so tenuous, so amorphous how can you have any faith in it.? At what point do you realize, uh, oh, i'm in trouble
it's gone. Not getting 3-4% at all but have slipped into a
negative situation. How far behind is enough to realize
advantage is gone?

[Jake]

Ask him to directly answer the rebate question instead of tapping dancing behind his "it's not legal in Nevada" answer.

[baravot]

There are lots of things I'd like to have you ask him. Some are:

1.) How long did it take him to amass such a large bankroll? And, did he get it all through wagering or through other means? And, how big is it?

2.) How much of his edge comes from being an owner who bets his own horses?

3.) Why is he being so public about his success?

[GR1@HTR]

Excellent looking forward to the article. Few questions for
Ernie.

1) Looks like he uses the DRF. What other handicapping tools does he use if any...ie The Sheets, Video replay, Software...

2) What is his typical routine for preparing for the next day at the races?

3) What books/handicapping literature did he benefit from?

4) Does he have a handicapping partner/aide or does he do all his handicapping independently?

5) What areas of his game does he hope to improve on, if any? If so, how will he go about doing it?

[Richard]

It would interesting to hear (if any)the value Ernie places on early speed both in sprint and routes.

[Tom]

It would be interesting to see how he adjsuts (if he does) his approach to the races at the different tracks and seasons NYRA offers (winter track, Saratoga, turf, etc.)

Tom

[Rick Ransom]

I'd like to know if he is more of an objective or subjective handicapper. In other words, does he rely more on numbers and detailed records or a gut feel for what is right.

Barry,
Thanks for asking for our input. In the article it was mentioned that Ernie uses savers. I know this is someting that you don't recommend. It would be interesting if you could explore how he uses them and still makes money on such low priced exacta wagers with savers.

[ceejay]

Barry:

I have two questions for Ernie D:

1. Although rebates are illegal in Nevada, "perks" are not. Other than the private room, what perks does he receive. For example, I noticed that he receives his sheets at the casino office. Who pays for them? Who pays for other handicapping tools?

What other non-rebate premiums does he receive? For example does the casino pay for his computer equipment and supplies and/or broadband access? Do they "rent" his home-based office from him for his use?

2. From a handicapping standpoint, as he appears to be a "chalk" player (plodder as he called it), it seems to me his edge is formed by eliminating vulnerable favorites. What method does he use to identify false favorites?


One question for you, Barry. Will you please post any replies to our questions for Ernie here for those of us who are not your subscribers?

[tilson]

Ernie talks about accessing if a horse is good value. I 'de like to know if he has a "Set of numbers" for a horse to mesasure his odds against.
I would assume he is looking for a MIN mathimatically quantifiable advantage on a horse he is betting, and he then wants to messure that number vs the horses Odds NO ?

He also talks about pace being very importent....i agree...but sometimes i say...if the pace is fast this horse should run good....if the pace is slow i am less confident.....how does he messure this when its not obvious or is he not even in a race if he think there is a considerable doubt as to likely pace ?

If he anwsers it would be great if you could post it here

[tilson]

Originally posted by Lefty
Barry, hope I can couch this correctly: A 3-4% ROI is
so tenuous, so amorphous how can you have any faith in it.? At what point do you realize, uh, oh, i'm in trouble
it's gone. Not getting 3-4% at all but have slipped into a
negative situation. How far behind is enough to realize
advantage is gone?

I agree, I am Guy who has tinkered with systems often. Just from past experience i could tell you a few things an ROI of 3 or 4% reflects.
This guy HAS TO BE sitting threw some pretty long losing streaks.
I would be interested in knowing if this guy has a way to MATHIMATICALLY QUANTIFY a type of advantage he is looking for from horse to horse....AND WHEN AN IF HE HAS IDENTIFIED such a horse if he has a way to Quantify what fair value odds are for such a horse.

[The Skeptic]

Barry,

I'm somewhat skeptical of Mr. Dahlman. I do believe he probably is a winning player. However, is it a result of swinging for the fences on the pick 6's and various carryovers. What I'd be skeptical of is if he could actually win betting straight win bets. I say this because I know a person can win with win betting...I've done it with a similar low level ROI and torcherous loosing streaks. But, Mr Dahlmans approach is so elementary and he doesn't appear to have a detailed grasp of things. He is obviously a better than average player...but can does he produce a profit in the win pool?

the skeptic

[tigers1901]

Questions on my mind:

Does he record/review his bets with computer (database) to improve or is each day different with a
search for "opportunities"?

Does he sketch out an oddsline for the contenders he is
considering?If yes,is this where "addition/subtraction"
comes in?

Does he mainly use the "Sheet" numbers for eliminating
contenders?Since he pays no attention to patterns.

What does the Prologicdata.com info give him?
Pace numbers?Contenders?

What goes in the "Pace NoteBook"?How is it used?
Race or Horse specific?Race shapes?

Why did he play the twin double the night after he
had hit the big carryover pool.What was that payoff?

What is his overhead like per annum?

Barry, I will be looking for your article as I have won a
six month subscription in a Triple Crown Contest.

[JimG]

My questions for Mr. Dahlman:

Why is he choosing now to go public?

How was he able to juggle a family life with full time playing?

Does he use trainer/jockey data in his decision making?

How does he measure success? Daily? Monthly? Yearly?

Does he keep a separate bankroll for betting?



Jim

[tilson]

Originally posted by The Skeptic
Barry,

I'm somewhat skeptical of Mr. Dahlman. I do believe he probably is a winning player. However, is it a result of swinging for the fences on the pick 6's and various carryovers. What I'd be skeptical of is if he could actually win betting straight win bets. I say this because I know a person can win with win betting...I've done it with a similar low level ROI and torcherous loosing streaks. But, Mr Dahlmans approach is so elementary and he doesn't appear to have a detailed grasp of things. He is obviously a better than average player...but can does he produce a profit in the win pool?

the skeptic

I agree what is of particular interest to me is WHY would he be playing exactas with a 25% take out when the take out on win betting is a much lower 17% ? FRANKLY I think i know the answer.
I think because exact pay outs tend to be so much higher it enables him to endure losing streaks a bit more. Also I SUSPECT STRONGLY that while he may not be able to pin point a certain horse with any degree of reliability.....HE MAY be able to Isolate horses that are "Reliable" collectively as a group....inothers words, if he likes 3 or 4 horses in a 10 horse field he can afford to have 1 or 2 NOT FIRE AND still have a shot to win.

[Jake]

Or, he's not playing with a 25% takeout....

Originally posted by tilson


I agree what is of particular interest to me is WHY would he be playing exactas with a 25% take out when the take out on win betting is a much lower 17% ? FRANKLY I think i know the answer.
I think because exact pay outs tend to be so much higher it enables him to endure losing streaks a bit more. Also I SUSPECT STRONGLY that while he may not be able to pin point a certain horse with any degree of reliability.....HE MAY be able to Isolate horses that are "Reliable" collectively as a group....inothers words, if he likes 3 or 4 horses in a 10 horse field he can afford to have 1 or 2 NOT FIRE AND still have a shot to win.

[Rick Ransom]

If you have a good selection method, exactas should show a better profit because of the leverage factor, despite there being a higher takeout. This is also true on daily doubles and Pick 3's.

Let's say your win selections lose 4% (0.96 return on $1). This is 20% better than the average of 0.80 return (0.96 / 0.80). Now, if you have 2 horses that you're 20% better than the public on, you should be (1.2 * 1.2 = 1.44) 44% better on the 2 horse bet. Multiply this by the 0.75 return on exotics and you get (1.44 * 0.75 = 1.08) 8% profit. So you have the unexpected result of winning money with a losing selection method!

It should be even better on 3 horse selections like Pick 3's and trifectas. Now, this is all theory so far, but I've found it to be true in practice with my selections. I can bet only about 1/3 of the races to win, but exactas and Pick 3's (my favorite) on every race.

[BMeadow]

Thank you to the Pace Advantage members who submitted questions that I posed to professional horseplayer Ernie Dahlman.

The complete interview appears in the November 2001 issue of Meadow's Racing Monthly, which will be published next week. You can e-mail me at trpub@aol.com or call 800 378-2211 for info.

Here are the answers to some of the questions posed by Pace Advantage members:

HOW LONG DID IT TAKE HIM TO AMASS SUCH A LARGE BANKROLL? He started with very small bets but started winning almost immediately. By the time he had been playing the harness races for only a few months, he had won many thousands of dollars.

HOW MUCH OF HIS EDGE COMES FROM BEING AN OWNER WHO BETS HIS OWN HORSES? He says that over the years, when you add it all up he has probably won zero dollars on his own horses. Ownership does give him an understanding of the game.

WHY IS HE BEING SO PUBLIC ABOUT HIS SUCCESS? Actually, as a rule he isn't very public about it; in fact, a large story about him that appeared in Newsday several years ago was done without his participation, since he doesn't seek publicity. He agreed to do the interview for MRM as a favor to me.

WHAT TOOLS DOES HE USE? Currently, he uses DRF, BRIS, Ragozin Sheets, prologicdata.com figures, Todays Racing Digest, National Turf workouts, Lawton Card, and Wizard Picks.

WHAT BOOKS/HANDICAPPING LITERATURE DID HE BENEFIT FROM? He says he's never read a book on handicapping, nor does he read articles about handicapping in magazines.

WHAT IS HIS TYPICAL ROUTINE FOR PREPARING FOR THE NEXT DAY AT THE RACES? This is detailed more in my article, but basically he looks for contenders, checks whether the figures from various publications match up, then looks for likely changes based on today's situation.

DOES HE HAVE A HANDICAPPING PARTNER OR AIDE? He has played with partners in the past. Presently he plays alone, though he does have an observer in NY to tell him of shoe changes.

WHAT AREAS OF HIS GAME DOES HE HOPE TO IMPROVE ON, IF ANY? Getting more value from his bets; he says he bets too many marginal situations and needs to get better value.

HOW MUCH VALUE DOES HE PLACE ON EARLY SPEED IN BOTH SPRINTS AND ROUTES? Very much, for both.

HOW HE ADJUSTS HIS APPROACH TO RACES AT THE DIFFERENT TRACKS AND SEASONS NYRA OFFERS? He says he gets more off-the-turf plays during certain seasons. Basically he's been doing this so long that he's very familiar with trainer patterns and the particularly configurations for each track.

IS HE MORE OF AN OBJECTIVE OR SUBJECTIVE HANDICAPPER? Both. He looks at numbers, looks at the probable pace, then looks for changes.

HOW DOES HE USE SAVERS? He calls them hedges, betting various combinations in a race. He says he hedges too much and is looking to change this part of his game, though he's been doing it a long time.

WHAT PERKS DOES HE RECEIVE? The racebook he plays at pays for his office, all his handicapping tools, his bank of TVs in the office, his Internet access for odds, and his phone.

WHAT METHOD DOES HE USE TO IDENTIFY FALSE FAVORITES? Horses that don't look to be favored by the pace, horses whose numbers are suspect, horses from bad posts in routes, horses who ran one big race last time but are unlikely to do so, etc.

DOES HE HAVE A SET OF NUMBERS FOR HIS ODDS? He says he does it by feel, different odds required for different horses. He doesn't quantify it mathematically, but by his own experience.

WHAT DOES HE DO WITH RACES WHERE THE PACE ISN'T OBVIOUS? He is less likely to bet these races. He likes to predict trips, as he did for so many years at the harness races.

DOES HE MAKE HIS MONEY THROUGH BIG SCORES IN PICK 6'S? He doesn't make all that many scores; he says he tries to win every day, and has earned most of his money by grinding it out. He was a winning player long before there was anything more exotic than the daily double (in fact, there were no exactas when he started playing).

HIS APPROACH SEEMS ELEMENTARY, SO HOW CAN HE WIN? As in anything else (tennis, golf, etc.), some people simply have more talent than others. He doesn't do anything especially exotic or weird, but he has been especially alert for such factors as shoe changes, the advent of the modified sulky, trainers who suddenly improve, etc.

DOES HE RECORD/REVIEW HIS BETS WITH A COMPUTER DATABASE TO IMPROVE? No. He uses a computer only for Internet odds, no handicapping programs or databases.

HOW DOES HE USE THE SHEETS AND PROLOGICDATA NUMBERS? Mainly as ways to measure contenders on numbers, and as crosschecks. He has no belief in any 'bounce' theory but takes each horse on a case-by-case basis.

WHAT GOES IN HIS PACE NOTEBOOK? As he watches races, he records the fractions so he can quickly jog his memory about whether the pace was fast or slow, were horses dueling or strangled, etc.

WHAT IS HIS OVERHEAD LIKE PER ANNUM? Not all that much, since it's paid for by the racebook.

HOW DOES HE JUGGLE A FAMILY LIFE WITH PLAYING FULL TIME? He's raised six children and is married (for the second time). He's very devoted to his family and when he goes home for the day, that's it. Tomorrow is another day.

HOW DOES HE MEASURE SUCCESS--DAILY, YEARLY, ETC. He says, "All of the above."

DOES HE KEEP A SEPARATE BANKROLL FOR BETTING? Yes, though for many years it was his entire bankroll.

A 3-4% ROI IS SO TENUOUS, HOW CAN YOU HAVE ANY FAITH IN IT? Dahlman says he does not know his own ROI. He does make many thousands of bets each year and has done so for nearly 40 years, so he has enough data to have faith in what he's doing. This is completely unlike a player who makes 200 bets a year, wins for 2 years at 6%, and thinks he's king of the handicapping world.

WHY DOES HE PLAY EXACTAS RATHER THAN BETTING TO WIN? For various reasons, among them increased sizes of pools and ability to put different amounts on differing combinations, and ability to hedge; at tracks he plays, exactas are generally no more than 3% worse than win.

Thanks again for all your help.

[PaceAdvantage]

Mr. Meadow,


Thank YOU for graciously sharing some of the insights that are going to appear in MRM.



==PA

[Topcat]

My questions:

How and when does he figure his advantage, over the course of the year? Ongoing?

Does he know other winning players? Waht are their advantages?

What books, if any did he find helpful?