When to avoid the race?

[prank]

Podonne brought up a good topic - when to eliminate a particular horse from consideration. I think that's a very interesting topic, and brings up a lot of questions on how to assess all the horses with and without 1 or more "non-contenders".

Separately, what considerations are made in deciding whether to pass on a race? I presume that if one's expected ROI is negative or very very small, it may not be worth betting. One could have a confidence interval around the aggregate ROI, and decide that if there's a less than N% chance of a positive ROI, then it should be skipped. What other methods come to mind?

Are any methods based on just the horses (and ignoring ROI for the moment)? For instance, if the horses are all running for the first time, is that a race to ignore? Or are maiden races in general all bad for gambling?

Best wishes,

prank

[Tom]

When there are 20 friggin' horses in the starting gate! :mad:

[46zilzal]

After I could only get the contenders down to 6, with questions on two others, I set the VCR and went out to visit a 12 day old foal by Baron Devaux and was sad to hear that the breeder (a good friend and patient) had passed away and they had received this mare in foal at a dispersal. Went then to a three day event to watch the stadium jumping where I met some people from Czechoslvakia who took me to their house to show me a tape of the Granda Velka Pardubice steepelchase. What a difficult race that one is.

I had a better day there than wagering on confusion. Still did not miss a Derby since 1969.

[Buddha]

Avoid a race if you have no real opinion on it. That is a big thing. Just don't bet races to bet them.

Another race to avoid is the race that offers no value.

I actually like betting maiden races when most horses have had at least 1 if not 2 or 3 starts. Too many first time starters means to many unknowns.

[46zilzal]

if you don't get a sense of how it will run after going over it three times, YOU NEVER WILL.

[sjk]

I ignore a race unless there is recent (last 120 days) form on more than 75% of the runners.

[twindouble]

When you hear any of theses from the wife or 6 woman with in ears shot. "what a nice name." " My son was born on the 2-7." " I'm betting the gray horse." "throw out that last race, the horse didn't feel good that day." :D

T.D.

[twindouble]

Well, that wasn't off topic.

Races loaded with FTS, for me anyway. I also back off on 2yo's with 3 races or less, even then I don't bet heavy or I'll go deep in the picks. 3yo's are risky because they will improve but not as risky as the latter ones.

I do better with older horses running routes, turf or dirt. MDspWt are very playable, ESP if there's enough Past Performances to look at.

When I'm not making sense of a race I'll put it down then go back to it 3 or 4 times. When nothing clicks I'll pass but sometimes when I go on to the next race or two then go back, that race looks very different to me. You have to continue the handicapping process to achive that in most cases.

Good luck,

T.D.

[Overlay]

I'm sure this is a specialty area for some people, but I tend to shy away from races with a significant contingent of horses that have been racing overseas, with no North American data.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Avoid any race where you do not feel you have better info or a better method for picking than the majority of the bettors.

[twindouble]

Avoid any race where you do not feel you have better info or a better method for picking than the majority of the bettors.

In other words use someone elses system that proves to be the best or become that good yourself. Easyer said than done. What do you consider to be "better" informantion and "better methods?"


T.D.

[Valuist]

When there are 20 friggin' horses in the starting gate! :mad:


I say eliminate the race when there's 5 friggin horses in the gate (otherwise known as Baymeadowsing).

[kenwoodallpromos]

In other words use someone elses system that proves to be the best or become that good yourself. Easyer said than done. What do you consider to be "better" informantion and "better methods?"


T.D.
_________________-
At the California fairs, any information beyond name, odds, and last race results is more information than the once-a-year bettors have!
I think there are many small seasonal tracks where much of the betting is local.
There are still areas besides speed ratings, last race finish, trainer and jockey %, and pace that are not used as much.
I think there is room for winning in the areas of track and race condition, non-contender overlays, even 'fecta betting that can produce a profit. In my PubHcp picks the favs many times finish last or almost last because their energy was not recoverd by the date of the next race. At 1-1 or lousier odds many horses should be automatic underlays IMO, especially the cheaper races.
Any angle, system, or spot playing that can produce winners at say over $10.00 to win are worth looking into.
I am not an expert, but I seem to pick pretty good at spot playing horses with some back class who are in peak consition.
At CD Tricky Trevor, and Bending Strings to show were nice bets. On PA's GGF contest I picked 3 longshots and 1 placed (I lost points on win betting!).
Find some horses who had nice runs of wins or ITMs within the last year and have been racing over their heads or laid off awhile, 6 months to 2 years.
I see some supposedly nice horses who ship to smaller tracks (SA to GGF, or TP to Mnr or TD for example) who go off at small prices and get beat by homeboys or home fillys.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I used Beyer's speed figure system and still do on days when the track is fast enough to my advantage.
There has been numerous discussions on PA regarding
tweaking systems.
Just for fun, look for a chalk horse who is breaking the success pattern the horse established- circuit, time between races, distance, way up in class, running into more speed horses, and you may find a horse begging to get beat.
You may find patterns of betting that produce overlays- at Ca fairs, combination betting on other than Tbred breeds as well as betting against Tbreds in mixed races can be fun!
The % of casual bettors going up in the pool can produce many good overlays.
It helps to know your betting competition.
Sorry for the long posta, but the Ca fair racing starts next month! DO not forget Fairplex also and the year-round trainers to clean up! You also get quarterhorse jockeys vs. Tbred jockeys in routes for 1st call trainers.

[twindouble]

Ken; All of what you said makes sense, kind reminds me when I was at the track everyday, I knew what horses the public favored. Didn't matter if they were in over their head or going the other way, would be chalk or second choice. One has to be at the track to get a good pulse of what's going on and you covered some of those things, ESP at the smaller tracks. That's hard to do from here and I miss that aspect of the game. It's not a cure all but opportunity does come about.


T.D.

[cnollfan]

I see some supposedly nice horses who ship to smaller tracks (SA to GGF, or TP to Mnr or TD for example) who go off at small prices and get beat by homeboys or home fillys.

I do not remember where I read this stat, but favorites shipping from a better circuit to a lesser circuit have a dreadful ROI in the neighborhood of -35%.

[WJ47]

I have absolutely no self control so I rarely can pass any race when I've got the TVG on! :) Fortunately, I'm a $2 or less bettor. I play prime bets at $2 on Brisbet and action wagers at $1 or less on my Oasis account. I pretty much just bet to win, I rarely play any exotics or pick 6 bets.

I play for fun and don't do really that horrible. I try to limit my losses to around $75 a week and thats my entertainment just like some people blow a certain amount at the casino. Some days I don't play at all, but when I'm in the mood and watching TVG, I find it difficult to pass any race. :)

If I were going to play more seriously, I guess I would pass a race when the favorite is legitimate and at even money or less. Or if I thought that 4 or 5 horses could win. How I handle both situations now is no matter how good the legitimate favorite looks, I try to find an outlandish longshot that may beat him. LOL, this almost never works! Or if I think that 4 or 5 horses could win, I bet the one with the longest odds. This really isn't too good of a method either.

[JohnGalt1]

If the race is a chaos race, I either pass it or hit the all button in pick 3's. I've hit a few juicy pay offs.

My most common chaos races are NW2 and turf sprints.

[RaceIsClosed]

Podonne brought up a good topic - when to eliminate a particular horse from consideration. I think that's a very interesting topic, and brings up a lot of questions on how to assess all the horses with and without 1 or more "non-contenders".

Separately, what considerations are made in deciding whether to pass on a race? I presume that if one's expected ROI is negative or very very small, it may not be worth betting. One could have a confidence interval around the aggregate ROI, and decide that if there's a less than N% chance of a positive ROI, then it should be skipped. What other methods come to mind?

Are any methods based on just the horses (and ignoring ROI for the moment)? For instance, if the horses are all running for the first time, is that a race to ignore? Or are maiden races in general all bad for gambling?

Best wishes,

prank

I hit a cold trifecta in a three-furlong race in Florida where no one had run before just by taking the three horses who were bet down the most from their ML. Paid $46.00 and won rather easily.

I usually bet something on every race, even if it's just a $1 place bet. There's always an angle pointing to something.

[skate]

when you go to Del Pk., avoid "the Race".


it hurts so so bad, i'm taking my AP card with me, just for a play.