Try to guess their closing fractions...

[JPinMaryland]

Without reference to the chart, how fast do you think these two finished:

Jazil
Barbaro

[kenwoodallpromos]

Barbaro-25.6
Jazil-26
Steppenwolfer-26.2

[cj]

They are probably very close. I know Barbaro came home in about 24 1/5, so I would guess Jazil was around the same. Of course, it means absolutely nothing, because Jazil did no running at all early in the race, so he should come home fast.

[JPinMaryland]

Correct for Barbaro about 24.33 or so...

Jazil finished in about: 23.75 which is quite fast indeed. I dont know how you can down play it on the basis of his early pace. That's a simple conclusion. ;)

Think about it, about a thousand horses have run in this race in the last 50 years, how many ran a closing fraction that fast? I'm guessing less than 5 or 6. Sham and Secretariat and maybe a couple of others. In that same period how many horses have run at Jazil's pace? Hundreds. And I dont think Jazil is all that special either..

Or think about it in terms of Jazil's own numbers. He usually runs about 24 1/2 final quarter or so off of early fractions equally slow. How does he run it that much faster? Its not so simple as you make it out. :eek:

Now how about this one: Steppenwolfer. Care to guess his final fraction? :jump:

[toetoe]

JP,

It's meaningless without more information. He'll make some decent money if he sticks around, running third and fourth in graded stakes. Hell, quarterhorses can run quarters in 19 seconds.

[classhandicapper]

The fractions look flukey to me.

A 26.1 followed by a 24.1?

Turn or no turn, when I first saw that my initial thought was that it was windy at CD and they had some help down the stretch. That's an exceptional closing time for a 10F dirt race no matter how slow the pace was - and this wasn't a slow pace.

You rarely see a 24.1 closing fraction in a 10F dirt race even among fully mature top notch dirt horses when they went slow early.

Turf is another matter.

[kenwoodallpromos]

According to Equibase, Barbaro led at the mile And the end, times=
1:10:88, 1:37:02. My figuring says that is 26.14 seconds, Steppenwolfer just kept pace so his is the same; Jazil gained 2 lengths + 2 heads on that time.

[Overlay]

According to Equibase, Barbaro led at the mile And the end, times=
1:10:88, 1:37:02. My figuring says that is 26.14 seconds, Steppenwolfer just kept pace so his is the same; Jazil gained 2 lengths + 2 heads on that time.

So the time for the next-to-last quarter was 26.14 seconds, adjusted by whatever ground each horse gained or lost during that time, and Barbaro's time for the last quarter was 24.34 seconds (2:01.36 - 1:37.02), with other horses' times again adjusted according to the ground they gained or lost in the final quarter.

[JPinMaryland]

I had Jazil making up about 4 lengths, and I count 7 lengths per sec. Maybe I made a math error.

It is an exceptional final 1/4 for Jazil. Hell it's very exceptional for a leader, like Barbaro. Sec. maybe the only other leader at the 1/4 pole to run sub 24. I think Ponder ran a sub 24 or maybe 24 1/5.

But I think we knew that Jazil could run a very fast quarter based on what we saw in the Wood, it was 24.7 IIRC. And you had to just imagine what it would be like on a better surface.

I would have guessed exactly what Kenwood said for Barbaro 25 1/2. Since he was obviously moving very well for a front runner and good one usually run something like that if they finish in 2:01...

ANy guesses on Steppenwolfer..?

[JPinMaryland]

I was counting 4 heads = 1 length for Jazil. on the basis that those head calls can vary some and probably give a little more length to. I think there were 7 heads in the math for Jazil and I counted it as 1 1/2 lengths rounding off the last head. I totalled 3 1/2 lengths. so maybe 23.8.

steppenwolfer, final fraction: Same as Barbaros! :faint:

Now how in the hell is that possible? Didnt they say the GP track is fast; Barbaro was getting about 25.3 to 25 1/2 IIRC? Isnt STeppenwolf a plodder? He was running e.g. 26 sec final quarters. what's up with that?

[JPinMaryland]

According to Equibase, Barbaro led at the mile And the end, times=
1:10:88, 1:37:02. My figuring says that is 26.14 seconds, Steppenwolfer just kept pace so his is the same; Jazil gained 2 lengths + 2 heads on that time.


KenW. I am not sure if you are responding to my question or not. But you do realize I was asking abuot the final quarter, and not the fourth quarter. I am sure you know this, but your post is feh.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I stand corrected!

[JPinMaryland]

I still dont know how that plodder Stepp. did it. Those Ark. people kept saying OP was playing slow all meet, but how slow...? 2 sec slower than Afleet ALex. ANd how much of that 2 sec. can you put into the final stretch?

My assumption going into the derby that maybe OP was playing 1 sec. slower, and that might translate to up to 1/2 sec on a straight quarter mile stretch. Assuming each horse will pick his own part of the race to make up time: first part, back stretch, home stretch. But who knows? Maybe all the time is lost on turns?? :rolleyes:

SOmeone said on our board that Barb. didnt run good final fractions. Hell he was running like 25.3 and 25 1/2. For a front runner that's pretty good as a general proposition. Not sure if GP is some rocket strip. Then I found that online blog: Pulling hair and Betting HOrses. That's what he was saying! That Barbaro's poor final fractions were a concern. :D

"ANd down the stretch they come. Its Seattle Slew, now on the outside making a spectacular move is....Steppenwolfer! :lol:

[toetoe]

I think a few horses were supposed to squeeze into the 8-length gap between Barbaro and Steppenwolfer. Credit to the old boy for consistency, anyway. :ThmbUp:

[kenwoodallpromos]

Energy and trip is what I say made the difference.
10 horses at the start were either bumping, stumbling, or had an akward start according to Equibase. There was bumping during the race also. coming out of the last turn there was a herd of horses charging toward the finish; some had tiring last races, some were sprinters, some did not have the total energy capacity of others, at least a couple left part of their energy on the track the last workout. And the nature of horses is to try to stay in a pack.
Those horses' recent races were at TBD, Keenland, OP, SA, and many of the prep tracks had crews who were recently trying to deal with wet weather.
There were the usual bunch of horses who were injured and 1 died so several with qualified earnings missed the race.
I do not believe there were as many horses as last year who earned the super Beyers by lengthy wins as last year. So all in all closer competition.
As long as there are 20 horses lined up rail to rail there will be traffic problems. This year I believe the ones who stayed the fittest at the end won- some who did not have driving finishes in recent races. I think that includes Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer, Jazil, and Brother Derek.
Those were probably some of the steadiest improvers in some way or another also.
The time in the 70's there were 4 or 5 years in a row where the favorites won, but they had very low posts and I think good front speed.
This year several closers had low posts.

[JPinMaryland]

....

There were the usual bunch of horses who were injured and 1 died so several with qualified earnings missed the race..

actually at least two died. With a City and Up an Octave.

I wonder if Snack (died last year) would have been something like Jazil?



....

This year I believe the ones who stayed the fittest at the end won- some who did not have driving finishes in recent races. I think that includes Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer, Jazil, and Brother Derek.
.

Not sure exactly what you're saying. Barbaro had a driving finish last race pre-derby. Jazil almost certainly did (the Wood). Bluegrass Cat was under wraps. Bro Derek I guess was wrapped up. Steppen. I think was moving pretty good.