what happened to SNS?

[JPinMaryland]

Guy on another message board said the horse worked real well (this is like Tue.) but came back to the paddock all wiped out with his head down. Now I would never give credence to one workout report, but the head down thing is a sign....

Later in the week a few people said he didnt work out very well over the sloppy track. But then someone else pointed out the track was wet and a few other horses didnt work out too well..

This afternoon on the NBC Jerry Bailey says the horse looks thinner than the last race. Well that is a red flag if there ever was one, but I didnt put it all together.

Hmm. Im still wondering. Did he show any of his usual energy patterns? Have not had time to look at the race.

[PaceAdvantage]

He was moving up well late on the backstretch into the final turn, then got blocked a little behind Keyed Entry, rail opens up, and he has nothing left. I thought he got a pretty dreamy trip, other then the minor blocking. If it is determined that the rail was not the place to be, then I suppose he gets credit...

Then again, Holy Bull looked terrible in the Derby.....

I'd like to see him come back in the Preakness...might make things interesting.

[Valuist]

He finally had a fast pace to deal with. At Hawthorne he just cantered to the quarter pole then sprinted the final quarter. He had never given indications before that he could rate off a fast pace.

[PaceAdvantage]

He finally had a fast pace to deal with. At Hawthorne he just cantered to the quarter pole then sprinted the final quarter. He had never given indications before that he could rate off a fast pace.

He was FAR, FAR back early on....he put in a very nice move to get within reach of the leaders, but petered out when they turned for home....

Something wasn't right with him....his final fraction numbers were too impressive to have nothing in the tank for the stretch. Many times, front runners who try and rate (and rate as far back as he did) will get discouraged and not run a lick. SNS DID make a NICE MOVE to get to the leaders.

It was a strange ride and a strange trip for a horse with enough speed to stick closer. Some say he looked like he lost weight...he didn't work out well during the week....lots of question marks.

I wouldn't write him off just yet.

[JPinMaryland]

okay it doesnt seem as much the horses fault as just bad luck and a dead rail.

I see now he had some bump or block coming out of the gate. He made a very nice rally on the rail, on the overhead reply that looked downright scary but I guess they know what they are doing.

Came up empty at the top of the stretch so I suppose we have two reasons: A) that rally took something out of him and B) the rail was dead.

THe only two other dirt races I saw the front running leaders were still staying well of the rail. Speed seemed to hold up well but those were sprints. Not to blame Desormoux he had no other choice.


"He was moving up well late on the backstretch into the final turn, then got blocked a little behind Keyed Entry, rail opens up, and he has nothing left."

I think you've spotted the problem, he was actually in very good position and just didnt fire at the right moment.

"He finally had a fast pace to deal with... He had never given indications before that he could rate off a fast pace."

I disagree w/ Valuist. maybe he hadnt rate but he was in fine position. Given the amount of traffic he had to deal with...could he have been in any better position as they came off the last turn? If answer is no, then cant be his ability to rate.

Steppenwolf is a downright plodder and he ran quite well at the end, in the middle of the track. Jazil too, but I expect him to run sub 25 final fractions.

Curious as to what the first three finishers ran the final 1/4 in. Knowing Barbaro I would guess 25 for him and probably 25 1/2 for the other two.

Finishing in 25 is very very good for a front runner in this. Someone elsewhere was complaining that Barbaro didnt finish very fast in his previous races.


As has been pointed out before Jazil seems to be too far back to have any shot at winning any of these. Although Belmont might be a place for him. I guess he has the breeding for 12f.

[Tom]

There was chatter on the Derby List that he was stiff.

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah, stiff in the hind quarters according to the people watching the works. But I never know how much to trust them. I was reading them from one of the other discussion boards.

One spotter was complaing that some horse was working with his head down. But hell, some of those horses are trained to work that way! So what does he know?

[the_fat_man]

Kind of hard for me to make sense of the love affair with this horse.

He got the rail trip and didn't fire. Well, at least KD wasn't scoping out the action in the parking lot.

Damn, Jazil finished ahead of him.

His trip/effort (wide as it was) in the Gotham told me all I needed to know.

I didn't have much in the way of an opinion for the derby, the freak in the Blue Grass saw to that, and I certainly didn't seriously think that Keyed Entry would be the pacesetter (even though I was leery when he drew inside of SM)
however

I did have a strong opinion that SNS wasn't winning.

[JackS]

Congratulations to the winners here. I myself played SNS as a key. Total confidence never existed in this race but heck, you had to go with what you liked and the odds were very accepitable.
One veteran player at my venue was confident enough to do an 8hl/all/all Trifecta . Not something I would or could ever comtemplate doing but as I reflect on this players reasoning, who am I to say that the bet was totally unreasonable? several nice horses with many question marks might have predictited a possible collossal payday for astute and well heeled players.
I'll probably give SNS another shot in the Preakness if he shows up with no adverse commentary between now and then.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I said SNS's workout was too fast (note also LR's time as compared to Steppenwolfer's). I posted this in response to someone deriding me for not watching the workout:


We'll see next week if he is 1 second ahead of some of these at 6f:
(based on these and LR's times, I see 3 or 4 that will beat Secretariat's Ky Derby time!LOL!!



KEYED ENTRY (KY) 1:12.80 b 3/11
SCION (KY) 1:13.60 b 5/11
SIS CITY (KY) 1:14.00 b 10/11
STEPPENWOLFER (KY) 1:13.00 b 4/11
SUNRIVER (KY) 1:13.60 b 5/11
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (FL) 1:11.60 b 1/11

Lawyer Ron did 1:11:00.

[betchatoo]

According to an article I read SNS had a lot of trouble early and that affected his finish. From the official chart

SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, steadied when bumped at the start by A.P. WARRIOR and forced out on PRIVATE VOW, was steadied again under the wire the first time in tight quarters, worked his way between foes around the first turn, angled inside on the backstretch, boldly came through close quarters along the rail at the five-sixteenths pole, but faltered when straightened for the drive.

[blind squirrel]

BAILEY, also said BARBARO'S races were "antiseptic"...he wouldn't
like having dirt in his face....so much for that,huh?

[blind squirrel]

I like to go to thorograph's "REDBOARD ROOM"...guess
who?...SNS."every thing looks good for SNS"..."barbaro's
no faster than others"...

[RXB]

According to an article I read SNS had a lot of trouble early and that affected his finish. From the official chart

SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, steadied when bumped at the start by A.P. WARRIOR and forced out on PRIVATE VOW, was steadied again under the wire the first time in tight quarters, worked his way between foes around the first turn, angled inside on the backstretch, boldly came through close quarters along the rail at the five-sixteenths pole, but faltered when straightened for the drive.

He had some trouble early but nothing traumatic. After that, he had a nice clean run and got through on the inside. Just didn't have it. There were reports from multiple sources that he never recovered from that Saturday workout.

Brother Derek might have had the worst trip.

[Tom]

SNS just another of a long line of "super horses" at Keenland coming back to reality. I never, ever, consider a KEE paceline, good or bad, as an indication of anything other that a very bad racing surface. I have yet to see anyone's figures that make any sense using KEE pacelines ( no offense to those who make them - there is just something very starange about that track.)
Poly tack, asphalt, cement, anything has to be an improvement.
Like I usggested Friday night - throw out that one race and then tell how great SNS looks on paper.

[46zilzal]

SNS just another of a long line of "super horses" at Keenland coming back to reality. I never, ever, consider a KEE paceline, good or bad, as an indication of anything other that a very bad racing surface. I have yet to see anyone's figures that make any sense using KEE pacelines ( no offense to those who make them - there is just something very starange about that track.)

energy distribution was a question as he was TOO LATE at an average of 66.6 % median. Warned people about this as it was the same "crack" in the form that Afleet Alex presented last year. EVERY Winner, including this year's were around 67.8. this would predict that this one would be far back early and have tons to make up.

[Tom]

On HTR %E, the parameters for the Derby are about 50.25 - 51.25%
SNS came in at 52.71% and Barbaro came in at 51.24%. Only 6 horses qualified.

[JPinMaryland]

He had some trouble early but nothing traumatic..

Someone on another board said he did a full body slam into Private Vow.

There were reports from multiple sources that he never recovered from that Saturday workout.

Yeah there were. WOnder how many people saw Barbaro work 4f on derby day? They would have really thought Matz was nuts.

***

Must have been some huge pile of wise guy money that came in on SNS on the end. He was actually the favorite at 5.5 to 1 when they went off. :faint:

[46zilzal]

Brother Derek might have had the worst trip.
without a doubt:"steadied twice, 9 wide."

[toetoe]

Tom,

Come on, you have many good things to say. Don't tar 'Saint with the "Keeneland Lover" brush. HE'S NEVER RUN THERE! :faint:

'Saint's trip was brutal for the first three furlongs, then perfect along the rail, provided the rail was fair. Some say it wasn't, but that Dale Romans filly won easily with a rail trip in race 6, I think it was. I expected him to get the trip Barbaro got, but sometimes he's sluggish out of the gate, I guess. Anyway, he got slammed, then he had nowhere to go for the majority of the stretch (first time).

[chrisg]

Tom, you lost me w/the Keeneland reference.

As for the Derby, I was wrong.

Yes, Sweetnorthernsaint had it rough early for sure, but Barbaro was hands down the best yesterday.

[Tom]

Tom,

Come on, you have many good things to say. Don't tar 'Saint with the "Keeneland Lover" brush. HE'S NEVER RUN THERE! :faint:

'Saint's trip was brutal for the first three furlongs, then perfect along the rail, provided the rail was fair. Some say it wasn't, but that Dale Romans filly won easily with a rail trip in race 6, I think it was. I expected him to get the trip Barbaro got, but sometimes he's sluggish out of the gate, I guess. Anyway, he got slammed, then he had nowhere to go for the majority of the stretch (first time).

Ooops. I was talking about Sinister Minister. Got my SNS and SM mixed up.
I've been heavily drinking gin and lighter fluid since the race yesterdy...getting hard to focus my eyes! :eek::lol:

As Gilda Radner used to say, "Never Mind!"

[blind squirrel]

Tom, you lost me w/the Keeneland reference.

As for the Derby, I was wrong.

Yes, Sweetnorthernsaint had it rough early for sure, but Barbaro was hands down the best yesterday.

i think tom was refering to another "S" horse:SINISTER MINISTER

[46zilzal]

Sinsiter Minsiter was even worse with % medians ABOVE 69.....No colt can run 10 furlongs with an engery distribution like that. This one remeinded me a lot of last year's Wood winner who benefited with TRACK maintainence's souping up Aqueduct to give him an OUTRAGEOUS number much like the Keeneland course did. BOTH these guys were automatic throwouts baseed on that.

[kenwoodallpromos]

What's up with the Jazil- Stepp bump?

[Valuist]

I like to go to thorograph's "REDBOARD ROOM"...guess
who?...SNS."every thing looks good for SNS"..."barbaro's
no faster than others"...

I remember this comment before a Derby from them : "Barbaro is no better than the 4th or 5th fastest horse in the race."

That was before the FLORIDA Derby.

Getting back to SNS, the problem was he used his energy as efficiently as possible (in the preps), which made his final figs look better than they were in reality. He probably will win a big race sometime but the pace will have to be on his terms.

[classhandicapper]

Sinsiter Minsiter was even worse with % medians ABOVE 69.....No colt can run 10 furlongs with an engery distribution like that. This one remeinded me a lot of last year's Wood winner who benefited with TRACK maintainence's souping up Aqueduct to give him an OUTRAGEOUS number much like the Keeneland course did. BOTH these guys were automatic throwouts baseed on that.

I don't think energy distribution or bias had anything to do with it.

Keenland wasn't biased the day of the Bluegrass the way Aqu was the day Bellamy Road won the Wood and Sinister Minister didn't even run a great mile yesterday let alone a great 1 1/8 like in the BG. He bounced to the moon. That was something that was much more likely than not to begin with and everyone knew that going in.

[46zilzal]

I don't think energy distribution or bias had anything to do with it.

Keenland wasn't biased the day of the Bluegrass the way Aqu was the day Bellamy Road won the Wood and Sinister Minister didn't even run a great mile yesterday let alone a great 1 1/8 like in the BG. He bounced to the moon. That was something that was much more likely than not to begin with and everyone knew that going in.
in a word POPPYCOCK all the winners since 2001 were around 67.7 and this marginally ratable colt showed that he would NOT be able to met that criterion. As the distances got longer, he didn't have it left late in the tank.

[46zilzal]

then there is Bellamy Road, also OUT of range OFTEN.

[classhandicapper]

in a word POPPYCOCK all the winners since 2001 were around 67.7 and this marginally ratable colt showed that he would NOT be able to met that criterion. As the distances got longer, he didn't have it left late in the tank.

I wouldn't argue with anyone that said he didn't look like a 10F horse coming in or that the pace figured to be too hot for him.

That simply was not the deciding factor in yesterday's race otherwise he would have had the lead at the 1/8th pole and quit like a dog. The fact that he could run a great 9F race after setting a blazing pace on an ubiased track (which KEE was that day) was already certain. Yesterday, he was done long before the 1M point. They walked from the 6F point to the 1M point and the jock was urging him.

I'm not arguing with your energy distribution theory. I'm saying yesterday he bounced. So his performance didn't prove your theory either.

I don't like to use who wins or loses to prove my ideas. I like to look at what actually happened.

For example:

I thought Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron were both somewhat vulnerable because they were aggressive in prior races and that could potentially get them involved in the fast pace prematurely. I spread around based on that idea.

They were both off the board, but I wasn't right about anything.

Brother Derek probably would have finished 2nd except for all the ground he lost while rating further back than I expected and Lawyer Ron didn't lift a hoof.

In fact, I cashed a saver wager on Barbaro when I became convinced he could rate well off the pace if required (had the same concern about him as with BD and LR) after an online chat session with Steve Davidowitz. Yet he wound up reasonably close to the pace - unlike the horses I was tossing for that reason.

So I consider this the worst job of handicapping I've done on any big race in a long time even though I actually eeked out a small profit.

[46zilzal]

ONE of the things increasing %median as the distances go longer means AS IT HAS FOR YEARS AND YEARS, the next step in distance will NOT be taken.

here was Bandini last year

[46zilzal]

Lawyer Ron was going backwards in total 162 minimum to win the big dance.

[Valuist]

Biased or unbiased, a lot of sharp Kee horses don't reproduce that form at CD and a lot of horses who love CD struggle in Lexington.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would appreciate 46zilzal's post-race "enlightenments" more if he had actually posted his thoughts before the race.

The simple fact is, Sinister Minister had NOTHING to offer late. His late numbers were ALL pathetic, except for his Keeneland race. But even there, his late number was BARELY marginal, if that.

He had absolutely NO SHOT of getting 10f, even IF he CONTROLLED a moderate pace, let alone the pace he would be facing in the Derby.

[toetoe]

I heard Saturday morning that SinMin was training in a protective shoe (bar shoe, maybe?), due to a hoof problem. That might explain his failure to even get the lead.

[JackS]

SNS- In the words of the late Gilda Radner, "it could happen" (Preakness). I still want to see the DRF to finalize the decision.

[classhandicapper]

Biased or unbiased, a lot of sharp Kee horses don't reproduce that form at CD and a lot of horses who love CD struggle in Lexington.

I haven't done a lot of handicapping at Kee before this year. So i'm not an expert on it.

I wonder how much of that reputation IS related to bias and pace issues that go unnoticed, how much is just random, and how much is really track preference/dislike?

I "suspect" that in some cases people aren't particularly sensitive to bias and pace issues when they come to the conclusion that it's a track issue. Speed/Inside biased tracks have a way of producing huge winners and terrible performances by other contenders. But if you don't know that or don't believe in biases much, you would just see tons of figures that don't make sense that don't get duplicated elsewhere. You'd have to conclude the track is flukey.

Another high profile big fig horse coming out of the BG was Millenium Wind. The day he won he was the only speed on a track that was tilted toward speed. I bet him that day in the BG and he was my first throwout in the Derby.

Perhaps some day I will study it better. I just suspect that comparing KEE form to CD form is a lot like comparing Aqu Inner Dirt form on an inside speed day to Belmont on a day when the far outside is fine.

KEE has a lot of inside speed days and CD has a lot of days where being way outside is not a problem. When I read the CD charts last year, I remember seeing many horses rallying in the 5 path etc....

Given different conditions, it doesn't surprise me that different horses will run well. However, I suspect horses that run well on an honest day at KEE will often do fine on an honest day at CD. Could be more to it, but I think that's some of it.

[classhandicapper]

He had absolutely NO SHOT of getting 10f, even IF he CONTROLLED a moderate pace, let alone the pace he would be facing in the Derby.

I wish we could get a better discussion of this subject going because it isn't particularly obvious to me.

I thought 10F was a huge risk. I thought the pace was a huge risk. I built both into my thinking.

When I attempt to determine if a horse can stretch out, I usually look at how the horse performs in the stretch of shorter distances, its pedigree etc.... If the horse tends to consistently tire late and has a sprinty pedigree, I tend to downgrade the horse's chances going longer. I would guess that 9 out of 10 times that I am downgrading a horse because of less numeric judgements, the horse also has terrible looking late pace numbers (which I do look at also).

The problem is that I could probably put together a list a thousand miles long of horses with great early numbers and horrible late numbers in sprints that wired routes when they controlled the softer pace. Often they have pedigrees that suggest going long would be fine.

We know a horse can't run fast early and fast late. So if they run fast early, they will tire and not stretch out.

However, the question is, can a horse that has been running fast early and slow late switch to running slower early and faster late if given the opportunity to do so because of circumstances and thus stretch out.

The fact that many of them don't get the opportunity doesn't tell us if a subset of them could if the pace was slower.

[Valuist]

I wonder how much of that reputation IS related to bias and pace issues that go unnoticed, how much is just random, and how much is really track preference/dislike?


Perhaps some day I will study it better. I just suspect that comparing KEE form to CD form is a lot like comparing Aqu Inner Dirt form on an inside speed day to Belmont on a day when the far outside is fine.

.

I think its partly bias, partly the actual track surface and partly track configuration. The Aqu inner dirt is an excellent example. I TOTALLY disregard figures earned on the inner dirt unless a horse has shown that they can run the same kind of figures at other (non-race day Bute) tracks. The sharpness, or in some cases, lack of sharpness on the turns (i.e. Belmont) makes a huge difference. It seems that smaller, athletic horses love tighter turned tracks, while the monsters like Easy Goer and Point Given just devoured their fields in the Belmont.

[cj]

The problem is that I could probably put together a list a thousand miles long of horses with great early numbers and horrible late numbers in sprints that wired routes when they controlled the softer pace. Often they have pedigrees that suggest going long would be fine.

I don't think a horse changing from a sprint to a route, or route to sprint, is the same thing as a horse going from a 6f to 7f sprint, or 9f to 10f route.

A horse changing from a sprint to a route is changing to a race where the pace will be much more relaxed, and enable the horse to show a new dimension.

A horse changing to a longer sprint or route is going to be facing a similar type pace, but just have to sustain it longer. I have much greater success dismissing horses with poor late figures attempting longer distances around the same number of turns. When it comes to sprint to route, breeding is a bigger factor for me.

[Tom]

That extra furlong inthe mile and a quarter is about a half a mile in reality:eek:
Even 9 furongs starts to shake them out these days. Horses just don't always have enough gas to keep it up another eigth.

That said, a lot of horses never picked up a hoof Saturday - several prominently favored horses were done befroe the bell stopped ringing!

I see horses in cheap races that can't go from 5.5 to 6 furlongs. I see 6 furlong quitters blow away milers. The pressure up front is a major factor. that is why route-sprint, sprint-route conversion formulae can be tenuous - thehorses don't always fit as good as the numbers do. Breeding, trainer, jockey can all be more important than looking at times.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think a horse changing from a sprint to a route, or route to sprint, is the same thing as a horse going from a 6f to 7f sprint, or 9f to 10f route.

A horse changing from a sprint to a route is changing to a race where the pace will be much more relaxed, and enable the horse to show a new dimension.

A horse changing to a longer sprint or route is going to be facing a similar type pace, but just have to sustain it longer. I have much greater success dismissing horses with poor late figures attempting longer distances around the same number of turns. When it comes to sprint to route, breeding is a bigger factor for me.

Sounds like a better approach. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

I see horses in cheap races that can't go from 5.5 to 6 furlongs.

For some reason the 5F/5.5F move to 6F is very difficult for a lot of very speedy horses. I could make another list a thousand miles long of horses that ran big Beyer figures at 5F/5.5F that collapsed at 6F. That angle makes for some good bets for me every year.

[twindouble]

For some reason the 5F/5.5F move to 6F is very difficult for a lot of very speedy horses. I could make another list a thousand miles long of horses that ran big Beyer figures at 5F/5.5F that collapsed at 6F. That angle makes for some good bets for me every year.

It was always a given to me, horses running short distances being all out would have faster times, but those bold Beyer figures suck others in.


T.D.

[classhandicapper]

ONE of the things increasing %median as the distances go longer means AS IT HAS FOR YEARS AND YEARS, the next step in distance will NOT be taken.

here was Bandini last year

I can appreciate the validity of what you are saying, but Bandini broke down in the Derby. That was the point I was trying to make earlier. If you are trying to learn something new or test an idea, you want to make sure that the reason the horse won or lost is actually the reason you are testing and not some unrelated factor. Being right for the wrong reason is a not a very good way to test or prove a point. (although I never complain when I cash that way :lol: )

[ponypro]

My top pick was SNS and I became a little concerned when Tom Amoss (who had trained for me at one time and I think is Great) on TVG decribed him as not having a good week after that nice workout and being a little off behind. I dismissed that and thought a good dose of bute would cover that.

THEN I get an email from a buddy who was at the track Thurs morning and he tells me this horses back end was really bothering him.
Then what do I do

I bet him anyway!

Heres to those that saw that Barabaro trained like a champ all week and literally screamed BET ME BET ME

Congrats

[Valuist]

Amoss' commentary was the best thing about the TVG show. He said Barabaro clearly impressed him the most and he didn't like Sweetnorthernsaint and wasn't crazy about Brother Derek.

Then of course, the minute he said something negative, Gary Stevens had to jump all over him. These guys like Stevens are so damned touchy if anyone criticizes a friend's horse that it really made him irrelevant on the show. He's ok in the studio but keep GS off The Works.

[PaceAdvantage]

THEN I get an email from a buddy who was at the track Thurs morning and he tells me this horses back end was really bothering him.

Oh man, it's info like that that we could have really used around these parts. Why didn't you post this prior to Saturday? :bang:

[JustRalph]

Oh man, it's info like that that we could have really used around these parts. Why didn't you post this prior to Saturday? :bang:

Wow! you didn't think to share that huh? .......... not sure it would have changed my bets.......but it damn sure would have been interesting.......on second thought.....reading that the horse didn't look well in his last workout......on several sites...coupled with a post like this........maybe it would have changed my betting............

[JPinMaryland]

Thinking about the about the above...we ought to have one thread reserved for Latest News or something we can post any rumours etc. that we hear about Preakness. I dont have a good feel for Preakness but I will probably be there and have to throw some money down.

There's a lot that can be gleaned from multitudes of sources,but there is so much chaff out there that if we put our heads together maybe we can.....I dunno..create a three headed monster? :D

[JPinMaryland]

I heard Saturday morning that SinMin was training in a protective shoe (bar shoe, maybe?), due to a hoof problem. That might explain his failure to even get the lead.

This story also was out there publicly although traveling a little under the radar screen. Baffert mentioned that he had an abscess that was drained when he was on the ESPN show Wire to Wire on friday.

The different shoe thing was out there on one discussion board. Either thorograph or about.com. They had it pretty much nailed SinMin training in a z-bar and going to run in a 3/4 shoe. And it was also mentioned on one of the prominent blogs: either Pulling Hair or maybe it was Left at the Gate.

Story was definitely out there.

[twindouble]

This story also was out there publicly although traveling a little under the radar screen. Baffert mentioned that he had an abscess that was drained when he was on the ESPN show Wire to Wire on friday.

The different shoe thing was out there on one discussion board. Either thorograph or about.com. They had it pretty much nailed SinMin training in a z-bar and going to run in a 3/4 shoe. And it was also mentioned on one of the prominent blogs: either Pulling Hair or maybe it was Left at the Gate.

Story was definitely out there.

Things like this upset me, this information that should put up front for the public in a more organized purposeful fashion. :mad:

[classhandicapper]

Oh man, it's info like that that we could have really used around these parts. Why didn't you post this prior to Saturday? :bang:

Sweetnorthernsaint's possible problems were identified in the DRF mid week. The reporter said he didn't work well and looked stiff. On Thursday night Steve Davidowitz verified that for me in an online chat and said he didn't like the way he looked at all.

It didn't do me much good because I had bet him earlier in the week offshore hoping to lock in a better price. He seemed to be gathering momentum earlier in the week and I was afraid he'd be the favorite (which he was). Personally, I find it difficult to trust the subjective views of others on these matters, but I think Davidowitz is so good he caused me to adjust my race day play because he was so high on how Barabro looked/worked and so low on SNS.

[ponypro]

I think posting rumors about soundeness really would become counter productive in the long run. In this case I ignored even a first hand account because over the years I have found changing your mind based on something like that will make you crazy. SNS had my calculated number and I made a calculated bet that the horse would be helped with Bute if needed. Also the Vets examine every horse before every race for general soundness. The horse didnt have Bute administrered so I took a chance. I think the any trainer would tell you these creatures give off all kind of weird signals and the best advice is to stick with your calculated figures, however you arrive at them. They run true to them more than not

Ill tell you another derby score I missed by "reading between the lines" I loved Fuschaichi Pegasaus years back. He had my number, pedigree, and everything. Im going to hammer him. Then on Thursday morning before the derby he rears up and almost dumps the rider in the morning. He was very tough in the morning. I was convinced (READING BETWEEN THE LINES) that he would literally come unglued with the pressures of the crowd and hoopla on race day. I changed my bet and took a strong stand against him based on his behavior in the morning and what I thought that meant in the afternoon. Guess what. I didnt even cash a backup bet that year.

[JPinMaryland]

"It didn't do me much good because I had bet him earlier in the week offshore hoping to lock in a better price. He seemed to be gathering momentum earlier in the week and I was afraid he'd be the favorite (which he was). "

This actually sounds like very good strategy. What did you get on him 10 or 11 to 1? I think he was 11-1 on PInnacle, but not sure if pinnalce is offshore or what exactly.

Still why kick yourself? Sounds like it makes sense. Horse just had some bad luck. The move he made on the inside was excellent.



" Then on Thursday morning before the derby he rears up and almost dumps the rider in the morning"

They showed that clip on one of the derby highlight shows.

[JPinMaryland]

Things like this upset me, this information that should put up front for the public in a more organized purposeful fashion. :mad:


Story was out there. We should be praising Baffert for being quite uprfront about his horses.

The blog: Left at the Gate had the drained abscess story. look under the archives for May 2006. I just checked that one. it's there and it was there pre derby.

"chuckles the clown" on thorograph site had the z-bar and three quarter shoe story. Admittedly Chuckles is probably quite lunatic but he has some insight. Of course trying to find out which post exactly might be a problem. But he had it a day or two prior.