Official KY Derby Redboard Post

[michiken]

Perhaps it will be easier to start this thread prior to the race being run?

This is the Official Kentucky Derby Redboard Post.

If you lost:

- identify what you missed.
- blame the teller or machine for printing the wrong tickets.
- whine about bad trips, rides (and crowd noise?).
- flame about the offshores closing earlier even though you had the winner.
- promise not to fall in love with early speed horses next year.
- claim 'well at least I got the rebate on it'.
- post excuses, etc.

If you won:

- post your bragging rights to remain until next year.
- imortalize yourself by telling us your big mutuel price stories.
- claim that 'your software is better'.
- tell us about your new million dollar condo?
- yadda yadda yadda :p

[michiken]

Looks like PA gets bragging rights for having Barbaro posted as a win candidate and Bluegrass cat posted in his Longshot choices. Anyone else?

[Topcat]

Dave Schwartz and HorseStreet Software had the winner on top:



<<"For now, it would appear that Brother Derek is the horse to bet against.

Code:

CD 10 (o:Line$) Val=0) Bet Int=20 Min=+ 7:58:56
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
8 Barbaro C 4 16.1 $1.61 -4.9 6
11 Sweetnorthernsaint C 10 15.1 $3.32 6.6 6
18 Brother Derek C 3 14.2 $1.14 -14.3 7
6 Showing Up C 20 12.4 $5.21 8.0 8
3 Keyed Entry C 30 11.1 $6.91 8.2 8
">>>

[jjm323]

With my last 16 dollars, I decided to place a "saver" on Barbaro by wheeling him over most of the field in a $1 exacta wheel. As I already had Barbaro in exacta boxes with SNS and BD, I left them off the ticket. I had to choose 1 other horse to leave off of my ticket to make a $16 dollar bet.

That horse.....Bluegrass Cat.:bang:

[depalma13]

Here's my take on Deputy Glitters. Why the hell did I forget Bluegrass Cat ran in Tampa too.

14 Deputy Glitters (BAT 98 - ) Was this guy named after a male stripper or a real cop? Maybe NBC will let us know with one of their numerous heart warming stories. The horse clearly hates the slop and should have been scratched out of the Wood. If you drop his two efforts in the slop, he really isn’t that bad. Horses coming through Tampa are hit or miss in the derby exotics. Limehouse and Menifee being the best. He’s the longest shot on the board, and I’ll need a bomb somewhere in my exotics. BOTTOM EXACTAS AND TRIFECTAS

[gregrph]

Ok, here's my post. I had to get my bet in on Wed as I would not be around until sat night. MY first choice, gut favorite was Point Determined. I boxed him in an exacta with Barabaro, Bluegrass Cat, Brother Derrick and 1 other (can't remeber). My win bet on Point Determined lost but the $1.00 exacta box pay 293+ and I was VERY happy!
Greg

[fmhealth]

Can't win the Deby off a five week rest. Sinister Minister will NOT bounce off that 116 in the BG. SNS was sensational in the Ill Derby. Pt Determined will make up for his father.

Barbaro & Matz were nothing short of magnificent. What a pleasure to watch such a dynamic team. Didn't have the winner, for the 47th consecutive year. But I'm elated that this team won the roses. Good for the game on many levels.

On to the Preakness.

[chickenhead]

I was just utterly and completely wrong about this race.

(If only I'd known the track would be so cuppy :liar: )

[Hank]

As I walked to my car LARGE derby score nestled in my front pocket I "began to dance through the streets head thrown back arms open wide":jump:

[kenwoodallpromos]

I agreed with Andy on Barbaro and AP Warrior as nice.
Can't toss an undefeated horse. I have had good things to say about Steppenwolfer form awhile and he finally came through.
P Vow completely disappointed me, and I thought LR would wind up in a better position.
I said on this forum that SNS's last workout was too fast. Now word is he was exhausted running his eyeballs out on an average speed track in a workout.

[PaceAdvantage]

I suck at the betting part. How I left that almost $600 exacta on the table is beyond me.....

[JPinMaryland]

Pace: you've got to tell us what your betting strategy was today and what happened. Obviously you had the rest of the exacta in sight....

I was trying to hit the exacta figuring if I could get rid of some of the chalk I could box LRon and SNS and still have a good score with the obvious. Dumping LRon was easy as he runs rank from post 17. Only Gato del SOl had won from PP 18 and he was a plodder so toss Bro Derek...


I added Cause to Believe to the exacta, and then needed a couple more for the bottom.

I had Steppenwolf for the lower half, this morning then when I got to the OTB I looked at his final fractions and didnt see how he was going to finish anywhere near the front unless a total pace meltdown. Which I was not counting on since I had Barb/SNS.

So I toss Steppen. and start going back to Baffert Blinker Wearing Bob and John. But he's next to Barbaro and he's going to have trouble. They say he would try to rate in this race...hmm

Now I am thinking of using Jazil and Steppenwolf in the bottom but that seems odd since one of them runs sub 25 final and they both come from the clouds.

This brings me back to Pt. Determined who I used to detest but realized he was really trying in the San Felipe. So now I decide on adding both Baffert blinker wearers...

One key bit of info. I forgot was that someone had mentioned that Bluegrass cat's jockey had wrapped him up at the quarter pole in his last race out. But I kept thinking was Bluegrass cat the one who's ribs were cracked? ?

[jagerfury]

i was a total sns believer, as well as believing sm and ke entry would set the pace and fade. come the closers jazil, step and barb. he's undefeated, got to include him. i had tossed bluegrass cat ...

[OTM Al]

I played 2 tickets in the pick 4

1,2,8 // 5,7 // 3,9 //5,8,11,17,18
2 // 7,8 // 3,9 // 5,8,10,11,17,18

the $1500+ result was of course
8/8/9/8

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!

I know its because I broke down and wasted $ on AP Warrior. I knew he had no shot here but the wise guys had me a little nervous....

My actual Derby bets were keyed around SNS, though did have Barbaro on top of the savers, but they did me no good either...364 days until Derby 133...

[SAL]

I would have cashed the biggest trifecta in my life if Steppenwolfer gets up for second. But I managed to hit a couple of serial bets with the winner so it was a good day.

[Pace Cap'n]

I had a trifecta ticket that had six of the first seven horses across the finish line.

Didn't cash. Left out the Bluegrass Puss.

[betchatoo]

I bet SNS and Barbaro in equal amounts to win. I caught the pick 3. I had Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer finishing nowhere. Fooled me!

[KingChas]

My wife loved Bluegrass Cat. She hit exacta.She also had a $1 triple key 8/with/5-9-13 just missed- Damm Pt Determined. :(

I donated to the Kentucky Derby parimutual pool.As usual.Damm Lawyers! :D

[KingChas]

She also had a $1 triple key 8/with/5-9-13 just missed-



To clarify above comment she claimed after race she liked Pt.Determined and Steppenwolfer for her undies but picked PD.

I guess Woman Redboard too! :lol:

[JustRalph]

no blue grass............no green cash........... :bang: :(

[Light]

I was totally confused and lost in the commotion of the track. Suddenly I got a faint glimmer of how to bet. My keys were the Big and Ugly. Bluegrass,Deputy,Jazil. I bet them all to win,then put them all under all the horses who were single digit odds....Except Barbaro. How and why I did that I am still trying to figure out.

On a totally impossible note,the friend I was handicapping with at the track had keyed Barbaro and Steppenwolf. We usually go in together on a ticket comprised of his picks and mine. Since for some reason Churchill either does not offer a 10 cent super or we cant bet it here in California, we didn't discuss our picks. It would have been a 5 horse super Box that paid $84k with the Jazil DH super for 4th.We went home emotionally drained.

[JPinMaryland]

I know its because I broke down and wasted $ on AP Warrior. I knew he had no shot here but the wise guys had me a little nervous....




AP Warrior was on a lot of pundits lips. I think Beyer and Hammerin Hank both fingered him.

My buddy calls me at the OTB w/ 25 minutes left to post.

"$20 on AP Warrior to win."

"Pete. You've been handicapping this race for what 45 minutes to an hour watching NBC? Why dont you key an exacta w/ Barbaro and SNS?"


"No."

"WHy dont you throw in some Baffert horses on the bottom of the exacta. Either the 7 or the 5. Or you can do the closers the 1 or the 2."

"No. I want AP Warrior to win."

" Dude, I dont see anyway APW wins; I really cant talk you out of this?

"No. "

I was going to keep the $20 but I really didnt want to have to pay $260 out of my own pocket if he did hit. Hell I should have just kept it.

[bcgreg]

Picked Barbaro to win here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=274141&postcount=29

Amount of money I had on him to win:

$0000000000.00 :blush:

Paralysis by analysis! :sleeping:

Best regards,
Bcgreg

P.S. Showing Up might be a horse to watch later on...just my humble 2 cents!

[46zilzal]

had a fun day at a grand prix jumping event and watched the tape when I got home.

[toetoe]

JP,

I think the one with cracked ribs is First Samurai. Maybe? :confused:

Beware 'Saint if he returns to your neck of the woods in two weeks. It just occurred to me, and I'm not making excuses because I touted him, that maybe without Squeaky Desormeaux aboard, 'Saint worked too fast. After all, 1.11 and change is mighty fast, and hardly necessary when the horse has no gaps in training or races.

[Joe L.]

I put aside $100 every year just for the Derby. I make the same bets every year. I bet 2 horses to win and box em in an exacta. This year bet the #8 and #11. When #11 went to 5-1 about 2 mins to post tried to change wager, could not get through on the phonebet. Still made a profit, but still feel I left some $ on the table. :ThmbUp:

[ceejay]

Had the P4, for $767 but also live with the Bluegrass cat and 4 others. Cashed the ticket but the 13 was ~$6000.

[JPinMaryland]

toetoe: no giving up on SNS here. He got some bad luck at the break and did well to make up about 5 lengths on the back side. Given his trouble I dont think he performed too far from his norm.

THere was some talk about his abilit to rate under a fast pace and there maybe some vailidity to that. Even Beyer mentioned that in the Post, but people on this board mentioned it as well.

Could be an issue come Preakness when I imagine the pace may be hotter. They wil try to run right at Barbaro in that one.

The guy who owes me $30 for the bets is giving me his Preakness box seat for 1/2 price so I guess it works out okay.

[tboles]

On our site we have the last 4 years of Derby reports along with 3 yrs of Preakness and Belmont results.

This year Barbaro was on top without any elimination of non contenders.

We have hit one other race in the last 4 yrs....Funny Cide.

Reports will be free for the Preakness and Belmont.

[BeatTheChalk]

A horse with 7 letters in its name. Then I looked further and found that the
name ended in " O " Hmm I said. Then I found .. Sea Hero .. 7 letters ending
in O. sigh. And now comes Barbaro. The only reason I won any money at
all ... was to go along with a friend who works at the DRF. He liked the horse
so I said ..ok with me. Missed all exotics. I still like the 7 letters and O shtick,
Back to Back.

[Joe L.]

A horse with 7 letters in its name. Then I looked further and found that the
name ended in " O " Hmm I said. Then I found .. Sea Hero .. 7 letters ending
in O. sigh. And now comes Barbaro. I still like the 7 letters and O shtick,
Back to Back.
PRESTO! A new system is born! ;)

[Si2see]

I had a 5 horse tri box. Bluegrass cat was not on there. Then I had an 11/all/2 tri and of course I keyed the wrong horse there. Then I had 50 to win on steppenwoffer and that didn't happen either. My hat is off to Barbaro and Matz. I will be at the preakness and hope the horse runs as well as he did in the derby.

[TRM]

I played the $90 tri ticket (per the KD contest) keying Barbaro in all 3 spots........Left off Steppencrapper......

However, I was just smart enough to play an exacta with Barbaro top and bottom over the other picks for the nice ex payoff.......but still......was staring at over 5 grand....... :faint:

[Sailwolf]

All this discussion on one race on 20 (way too many horses) teenagers going a distance they have never gone before.:rolleyes:


I liked the undercard at CD and HOl. Especially the race at Hol that the 2nd place horse was 60 to 1 and the exacta paid $455.