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keilan
05-05-2006, 01:13 PM
Now for the Derby in order:

1) Jazil -- right energy – very weak power numbers use for 4th only
2) Steppenwolfer – right energy – projected power number M90’s +-
3) Keyed Entry – need to lead type, energy too high –toss
4) Sinister Minister – extremely dangerous, energy is off the charts but what if he doesn’t stop. Much different race pattern than last years GREELEY'S GALAXY & BELLAMY ROAD, this guy is flat out fast and if he catches a fast surface tomorrow?? I’ve gone from tossing him to keying him.
5) Point Determined – decent energy - projected power number H90’s +
6) Showing Up – no racing at 2, lacks foundation – toss
7) Bob and John – can rate some, decent energy, good jock - projected power number H90’S
8) Barbaro – decent energy - projected power number L100’s
9) Sharp Humor – likes it near the front - toss
10) A. P. Warrior – decent energy – Chickenhead loves him, so he’s in - projected power number L100’s.
11) Sweetnorthernsaint – right energy – Desormeaux just needs to be patient and believe in this horse. A close up trip could be his un-doing as the early fractions should be brisk. projected power number M100’s +.
12) Private Vow – I like this horse to hit the board in the super, I projected a power number L100’s – 50-1 ML
13) Bluegrass Cat – Velasquez wrapped this guy up early last race when he had no shot at winning – decent energy and will outrun his odds - projected power number H90’s +
14) Deputy Glitters – can’t win on the front here – toss
15) Seaside Retreat – how did this horse get in – toss
16) Cause to Believe – horse will rate some, may run by some horses late - projected power number H90’s
17) Lawyer Ron – hard to find much fault in this horse – right energy - projected power number M100’s +.
18) Brother Derek – energy a tad high, don’t have him winning despite the Calgary connection - projected power number L100’s.
19) Storm Treasure – too slow –toss
20) Flashy Bull – energy too high – toss

(A’s) Sweetnorthernsaint - Sinister Minister - Lawyer Ron
(B’s) Barbaro - A. P. Warrior - Private Vow - Brother Derek
(C’s) Point Determined - Bluegrass Cat - Bob and John - Cause to Believe
(D's) Jazil and Steppenwolfer

For the most part Sweetnorthernsaint will be my main key in the 1st and 2nd spots; I’ll also use Sinister Minister some.

Good luck tomorrow guys & dolls

kitts
05-05-2006, 01:23 PM
Just to stir things up, and before this thread gets longer and more obscure, let me give my thoughts on the Kentucky Derby. I almost never bet on this race as I am not convinced that betting on a field of 20 immature horses, none of whom has gone 1.25 miles nor carried 126 pounds nor been subject to the amazing intimidation of a 120,000 crowd is a good wagering opportunity. The race is certainly popular and all my horseplayer friends have an opinion and want mine and dismiss my not betting as being the Grinch of Horseplaying.

But I am what I am and feel much better now. :o)

keilan
05-05-2006, 01:30 PM
Kitts – everything you say is true but I can’t help myself when I see the size of those pools. This is one race where I’m not entirely looking for value, most of my money is tied up in tri’s and supers and the payoffs are often substantial.

chickenhead
05-05-2006, 01:53 PM
looks pretty logical. :ThmbUp:

I like Private Vow as a use too. I can't make a real strong projection as to his positioning early, but he is faster and more tractable than a lot of these, not the type to throwout. Also agree that Cause to Believe is stronger than Jazil or Steppenwolfer (+better odds to boot), he is a very playable horse underneath. Baze is main detrement.

Doc
05-05-2006, 02:09 PM
The more I read and analyze and handicap and analyze again, the more I realize that I'm going to box my house number and pray for the best.

Seriously, every year I do this to myself. I start the week really liking a horse, and by the time I've watched "The Works" and Matt Carrothers vs. Mike Watchmaker, and read Steve Haskin and every other reporter from here to Kingdom Come, I'm totally befuddled.

I don't think a horse will come out of the clouds this year - I think a horse with a running style like Barbaro will do best.

Best to tread lightly at the windows when you're totally befuddled.

Doc :confused:

keilan
05-07-2006, 11:18 AM
Congratulations to Churchill Downs for having a fair track, my hat goes off to them.

I somehow was happy for Prado immediately following the race although I hadn’t used him on top. I think it’s his 1st Derby win unless I’m mistaken.

Tossed and turned most of the night as it is with me after huge near misses. Before I began pouring over the PP’s Thursday and Friday I was looking to maybe play Barbaro as a key but settled at the end of the day with Sweetnorthernsaint. Barbaro was 4th on my depth chart here but actually became number 3 as I ended up tossing Sinister Minister sometime Saturday morning. My tickets were too large and I needed to cut them back, I used Sinister Minister in p3’s and p4 tickets only.

The dilemma in structuring tickets for me is, do I key on top or at the bottom. I absolutely loved Sweetnorthernsaint’s running lines, I never pay attention to anything written before a race on any horse, my mindset is this – if the horse is sore etc the trainer will scratch. As a player I have to believe that or I will never allow myself to have confidence in my selections. What makes yesterday doubly tough is that I was right about almost every horse in the race and didn’t hit the tri’s or super that were my only plays on the race.

Here’s what I said on the horses that ran 1 thru 5

8) Barbaro – decent energy - projected power number L100’s
13) Bluegrass Cat – Velasquez wrapped this guy up early last race when he had no shot at winning – decent energy and will outrun his odds - projected power number H90’s +
2) Steppenwolfer – right energy – projected power number M90’s +-
1) Jazil -- right energy – very weak power numbers use for 4th only
18) Brother Derek – energy a tad high, don’t have him winning despite the Calgary connection - projected power number L100’s.

I mentioned only 3 horses with the “right energy” and two of them finish 3rd and 4th (of course the other right energy horse is my key “Sweetnorthernsaint” who doesn’t run near his best race) exactly where I expected them to finish if they are to hit the board, hell I even go as far to pick Jazil for 4th only,.

If I key Steppenwolfer and Jazil on the bottom of my tickets I would have cashed, because that allows me to spread on top and let the winner come to me and that was my dilemma.

Had I played Barbaro as my key I would have had the exactor 10 times ($5870.00), the tri 1 time ($5709.00) and the super 2 times ($42,430.20 & $29,919.50) of course the payoffs are reduced with another winning ticket but it still adds up to a lot of money.

I hope this doesn’t come off as “me crying in my beer” though I almost did hehe. I only wanted to illustrate that this game is tough and the difference between winning and losing is measured in fractions of a second.

JPinMaryland
05-07-2006, 12:27 PM
Can you tell us how well these energy numbers have done w/ the Preakness?

keilan
05-07-2006, 12:41 PM
Say what?

toetoe
05-07-2006, 12:50 PM
keilan,

I would, if I had a brain, key Barbaro and 'Saint on top, then maybe fill in with your bottom keys. Bluegrass Cat? I'm not at all sure I would use him. I bet 'Saint to win, and I boxed him with Barbaro. Then 'Saint went down to 5/1. :mad:

Like you, I made a big PA Downs bet on 'Saint.