Derby Line

[Overlay]

One man's opinion (offered without comment):

Brother Derek (9-2)
Sweetnorthernsaint (5-1)
Barbaro (8-1)
Keyed Entry (10-1)
Sharp Humor (16-1)
Lawyer Ron (20-1)
Bob And John (21-1)
Point Determined (21-1)
Showing Up (21-1)
Sinister Minister (22-1)
Private Vow (26-1)
Cause To Believe (35-1)
A. P. Warrior (49-1)
Jazil (49-1)
Bluegrass Cat (50-1)
Steppenwolfer (52-1)
Deputy Glitters (54-1)
Storm Treasure (67-1)
Flashy Bull (74-1)
Seaside Retreat (135-1)

Morning Line Overlays:

Keyed Entry
Sharp Humor
Sweetnorthernsaint
Private Vow
Cause To Believe

[kenwoodallpromos]

So you got 5 horses from 20-1 and 22-1, and 5 horses between 49-1 and 54-1? What a trip!!
If I could get your odd, I would bet $2 on each of the following:
Lawyer Ron (20-1)
Bob And John (21-1)
Point Determined (21-1)
Showing Up (21-1)
Sinister Minister (22-1)
Private Vow (26-1)
Cause To Believe (35-1)
A. P. Warrior (49-1)
Jazil (49-1)
Bluegrass Cat (50-1)
Steppenwolfer (52-1)
Deputy Glitters (54-1)
Storm Treasure (67-1)

[Overlay]

There's always something to be said for taking flyers on longshots in a race like this, considering the price the winner often pays, and the infrequency with which the favorite has won in recent history. As a clarification, though, I should note that my figures are based on a 100% line (to allow direct comparison of the line with the toteboard odds for purposes of calculating true overlays in terms of potential payoffs). Thus, the toteboard odds (which factor in take and breakage) will be lower than my line if the public and I have the same opinion of a horse's chances, making the horse an underlay (by my line) for individual win-betting purposes. (However, that's not to say that the same horse cannot offer value as part of separately-pooled exotic wagers.)

[Overlay]

Minor tweaking:

Private Vow (20-1)
Lawyer Ron (26-1)
Storm Treasure (66-1)
Steppenwolfer (66-1)
Flashy Bull (73-1)
Seaside Retreat (134-1)

All others remain unchanged.