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View Full Version : An old method [ POPS & TIPS ]


John
06-07-2001, 07:10 AM
Hi Guys,

I just came across a 1980 method called POPS & TIPS by TOM WORTH. This copy is pretty faded but as far as I can understand POPS Stands for [ profitable odds patterns ] past odds in the past performances.TIPS are tipoffs by the connections such as workouts and jockey changes,claims ,recency. etc. The examples shown in the workout show great prices. I would like to do some research on this and would like to ask if anyone has ever heard or came across this.Also how it worked for He or She. Tom Worth I think has passed on So I can't ask him. Any information on the above will be appreciated.............Thanks

andicap
06-07-2001, 08:40 AM
I've heard of it, but never known anyone who's used it. From what I know it's a bit of work figuring it out every race.
Had decent rep as far as those things go.
One of those things that went out of style and because of that is worth looking into? Or piece of junk?
Good luck on research.

andicap

BMeadow
06-07-2001, 11:53 AM
Pops And Tips is a collection of angles. In many races, many of the entrants show a number of these angles--so, as usual, you still have to handicap.

Tom Worth's business is now run by his son, John Farnsworth. Address is PO Box 7054, Warwick, RI 02887. Last listed phone I have is 401 732-2139.

John
06-07-2001, 01:05 PM
Thanks Andicap and Barry

I am amazed at the 40 or so tips [ angles ] to look for. ] Mr. Worth said to find 5 0r 6 of them and if their is a pop[ Odds ] it is a play . What amazes me is He never mention pace or speed and still picks winners, Good prices. I guess what the Author intended is to make think like a trainer and point out trainer intention. I wonder if Mr. Worth's son ever programmed this for a computer. I will have to call some time and ask Him. He must have E-mail or a web site.........

Dick Schmidt
06-07-2001, 06:55 PM
Somewhere in the Vast Morass I too have a copy of Pops and Tips, though I haven't thought of them for years. The first handicapping program I ever was part of was similar. I helped write it with Dick Mitchell. It showed a good ROI, but was agony to use. 40 minutes of data input per race! Of course we had no downloads back then. You should hope that no one has ever computerized this; then you can do it and use an approach that is being ignored right now.

Dick

John
06-07-2001, 07:38 PM
Dick,

Your right, As I started to read this I knew it was old but yet it was like a breath of fresh air, No mention of speed rating or pace rating just old fashion angles. The one I love is " WUT " wound up tight. via races and workouts in a specified time. Makes a lot of sense to me.

A man in Massachusetts e-mailed me and said that he has been using Mr. Worth tips for ten years and has profited by them.He has tried to program. He said it is not the same and their will never be a computer program that will do the job. at least the way he does it with paper and pencil. He said that he has found a way to arainge the tips in a chronicle manner. He can now remember most of them.A compleat card at Belmont 4 hours. He and I are going to work with each other if any thing comes out of this I will post it.

SAL
06-07-2001, 07:48 PM
I have an email address for Tom Worth Publishing Co., I don't know how current it is:

tipsreport@aol.com

As far as I know, they are still in business and publish material based on the angles mentioned above.

Dick Schmidt
06-07-2001, 07:59 PM
Rocajack,

Good luck with the project. Two thoughts:

1 - Four hours per track is a LOT of work. That is about half an hour per race. It can certainly be done (I've done it for long periods of time) but I think that it sure takes a lot of the pleasure out of racing, not to mention limits the number of tracks you can play.

2 - Anything rule based can be programmed. Maybe the gent in MA can't do it, but it can be done. The advantages would be considerable; you could play multiple tracks and it would take the "sting" out of sitting down with a Racing Form and working for hours.

I've converted paper and pencil methods to computer several times, and it can be hard. You need to be very clear about how each rule is applied and note each exception. You can never do this the first time, or even the tenth. Be prepared to keep going back into the program to add exceptions and make changes. If you were talking about just another pace or speed program, I'd tell you that it isn't worth the time and effort, but here I think you have a chance to look at factors that almost everyone has forgotten about using.

Again, good luck. You'll need it, but the results should be worthwhile.

Dick

John
06-07-2001, 08:19 PM
Thanks Sal , I will try to e-mail

John
06-07-2001, 08:24 PM
Dick,

I will go with the paper and pencil. If I make a few buck and think I like it. I will need to find someone who would be willing to do a program.

Thanks for your good luck wishes..........

Jake
06-07-2001, 08:45 PM
Ask John about this. Someone took a shot at programming all the their stuff into a single program, which was going to be offered for sale.

I've checked out many of the so-called tips and pops. Think you drilling a dry hole there, but wish you luck with your efforts.

Originally posted by rocajack


Dick,

I will go with the paper and pencil. If I make a few buck and think I like it. I will need to find someone who would be willing to do a program.

Thanks for your good luck wishes..........

witchdoctor
06-07-2001, 09:15 PM
Long long time ago I to looked at TIPS and POPS because I was just learning to handicap and the method was highly recommended by the Phillips Racing Newsletter. (I didn't know that they recommended almost everything that came down the pike at that time.) The couple of times I tried it out it did OK but took forever. I called Mr Worth several years ago to see if anyone had made a program with the data and he said no. The more I know(think I know?) about handicapping I am not sure that the system would hold up in general. However I do think if someone had a database of a large number of races that you could find trainer specific patterns that would be profitable. Are you listening Dave? Sure would give you something to do in your free tome<G>

Rick

Tom
06-07-2001, 09:36 PM
I used to use this method to some degree-I incorporated it into my basic (then) methodology which was simply every rule in Tom Ainsle's Complete Guide.
Then sepreating every horse with 10,000 plus factors he had in the back of the book, then checking out most of the simple systems he also had in there. then I went throught the TIPS and the 8 or 9 million additional plus factors I added to the original list. Then I paced-rated the contenders. Played about three races a week-only on Saturdays-no Sunday racing back then, and the Racing form came the day of the races, about two hours before the first post. Used to show up at the track for the 7th-9th races. Too late to pay admission. Then usually found out that my two-hour selcection had been scratched-no way to get scratches off track back then.
A losing streak of 10 races could last a month easy.
Thus began the "Beer Years."
Guess things aren't so bad these days after all.
Good luck-I am going to look for my old copy and give it a fresh read this weekend.
Tom

John
06-07-2001, 09:54 PM
Thanks TOM
I was waiting to hear from you. After you reread TIPS. Please give me your comments. I would like to hear from you............

Tom
06-08-2001, 10:29 AM
Happy Birthday (2 days late!)

Tom

John
06-08-2001, 10:56 AM
Tom
Thank you for the birthday wishes I guess the date jumped when I entered it. My birthday is June 9 and to celibate this year, the horse racing world is going to run the "BELMONT STAKES " on my birthday. All I need is the winner. Back to TIPS. Maybe Tom Worth'S tips can find me the winner.............

Richard
06-08-2001, 12:03 PM
I've used another method by Tom Worth Publishing Co. called SHOW-A-PROFIT with modest success(dont play 2-year olds).Let me know how it works out for you.Also,if possible,how to aquire a copy.

Rick Ransom
06-08-2001, 12:42 PM
WUT tip was tested by Sport Stat with the following results: 5878 races, 12.9% wins, -0.20 ROI on $1.

John
06-08-2001, 01:02 PM
Rick,
That stat is very interesting. I e-mail His son Jon and he said he is coming on the board. He claims He does not know how to access the board and I believe him. He also said that Tips have been updated whatever that means. When He gets on the board I am sure we will find out ..........

John
06-08-2001, 01:12 PM
Originally posted by Richard
I've used another method by Tom Worth Publishing Co. called SHOW-A-PROFIT with modest success(dont play 2-year olds).Let me know how it works out for you.Also,if possible,how to aquire a copy.

Richard,

My method is stapled in 5 parts and each part has several pages that is written on both sides. maybe someone has a shorter version.....

Rick Ransom
06-08-2001, 08:23 PM
rocajack,

"Show a Profit" did better in the Sport Stat studies (6% loss). Also, there was another "tip" that I'm not familiar with (ESR/S/DC) that showed 11% loss. It's possible if you put a lot of these things together that they might help. However they were highly touted by PRN, and that is not a positive thing in my opinion. Also, I should point out that these studies were done on a nationwide database, and I do know of quite a few things that work in one area (especially Southern California), but not in another. Any method involving workouts, for instance, would need to be much different on the east coast than the west coast.

John
06-08-2001, 09:18 PM
Rick, Thanks for the good post.

I agree. The last month showed a profit at Suffolk Downs if you looked at the Track program !1st 2nd 3rd choice and just bet on the horse that had the highest last race speed rating and track variant added together. You had winners

If I tried that at Hollywood I got killed. and Belmont was no good either for that angle....

I wonder if some of the tip angles work better in sprints than routes.

I cannot understand why Jon Worth has not come on the board. He said he wanted to read the comments. Maybe tomorrow

Jon (Worth)
06-09-2001, 08:54 PM
Hello everyone - this is actually Jon's wife. I'm getting ready to download races for him on DRF and thought I'd just let everyone know of Jon's schedule. Jon plans to get on the board tomorrow night (Sunday). He's tied up with family commitments all weekend, plus had the Belmont, calls from subscribers to the TIPS Report, etc. Right now he's reading stories to our daughter! Tomorrow is another busy family day, but after he gets in tomorrow night he looks forward to reading over the thread and do his best to respond and let you know what's new with TIPS, etc. In the meantime, take care everyone! (His e-mail addres is tipsreport@aol.com).

John
06-09-2001, 09:22 PM
Thanks Mrs. Worth,

You and Jon, enjoy your Family and your weekend.

When ever Jon has some spare time We all will appreciate his thoughts and comments on the members Threads.

Have a good evening and regards to all......

Jon (Worth)
06-10-2001, 09:28 PM
Hello everyone - this is Jon. It's nice to read of the ongoing discussion on TIPS. I'll try to keep my first posting brief, and then let you ask away with any questions you might have.

First, by way of background, TIPS can best be described as correlational handicapping. TIPS are a collection of angles, or tipoffs, if you will, indicating the trainer's intent and the horse's readiness to run, (we classify them as Trainer TIPS and Horse TIPS). There are now about 75 of them. We don't consider any one tipoff as all powerful; instead it's what tipoffs you find in relation to one another, (hence, the correlation between them). Sport's Stats results from their test of just one of our tipoffs didn't surprise us, as again, it was just one tipoff tested in isolation. As far as I know the Sport Stat test didn't mention if more than one horse in the race showed the WUTT. Just about everything in handicapping is relative. A horse who qualifies as a best bet in one field might be no better than a mediocre play versus another field. Similarly, even with a strong angle like the WUTT, if six or seven horses in the race all have the WUTT, (this is pretty common out west, especially southern California), then it stands to reason that the importance of the WUTT in situations like this would be lessened, and you would need to look for other factors to separate the horses.

TIPS is very much alive and well, (though we don't use the POPS anymore). We've been publishing the TIPS Report, (a bi-monthly handicapping newsletter), since June 1993 and through that medium we update and refine the TIPS. We get lots of reader's reports from around the country and also get good feedback that way as well.

We're in our second generation now, though I'm sad to report that my dad, Tom, passed away in July 1997. I learned a lot from him, and he did an awful lot in the way of handicapping research and developing angles, etc.

We've also published other handicapping materials, and anyone interested can e-mail us at tipsreport@aol.com.

In the meantime I look forward to periodically checking in on this on-going discussion. Take care.


Yours in sport,

Jon Worth

multibag
06-10-2001, 11:55 PM
I've been reading the posts on P&T with interest. I ordered and read the entire set of reports and supplements from Tom Worth around ten years ago. After working with it on paper for six months I started betting with it. Have been ever since. It is about right that it takes about four hours per card to work up.
The WUTT factor is a very strong one but will not show a profit by just betting every horse that has it. But if there is a condender that comes up as a strong pick and it also the WUTT factor, it becomes a much stronger bet.
John Howard aka multibag

John
06-11-2001, 09:14 AM
Multibag

Thanks for coming on my thread. Seeing you have been doing this for ten years. I would like to know if wutt is stronger in sprints ,routes dirt or turf.

What TIPS do you favor, if any or all......

What are the track[s] that you found tips to be successful in the last ten years ? Jon Worth stated in his post that some tracks will show a lot of tips and means nothing. other tracks when a tip shows up it is very powerful.

Finally , Are you successful in spot plays . because what little work I did on tips at Philadelphia and Calder showed a lot of angles in almost every race and I think a sold spot play is the way to go with this

Any personal comments Mulibag, or if you what to share your ten years of what to do and what not to do to make TIPS win will be appreciated...

Jon (Worth)
06-11-2001, 10:27 AM
Hello again,

Forgive me for jumping in, but realized I should have mentioned that the TIPS methodology is now up to 21 parts, and maybe should give you more of a history! Part 21 was published in 1989. Then we put out a spot play called Place-to-Win for Routes, and then in '93 because of all the questions, letters, reports, etc. we were receiving about TIPS and various TIPS plays, we decided to start publishing updates on a more systematic basis, hence the TIPS Report, (published 6x's a year). Since then that has grown into discussing both the old and new TIPS, (about 25 new TIPS), reader's reports, refining various angles, publishing new angles - we get a lot of input from readers, so it's nice in that way! Some of the more powerful and effective tipoffs have been developed over the past four to five years. Our philosophy is that anything can be improved, and that's is what we strive for so as to continually sharpen our handicapping skills. Don't mean to go on, but just to let you know that TIPS hasn't stagnated - it's vital, vibrant and still going strong! (Can you tell that I live, eat and breath this stuff!!)

Just so know, we also developed spot plays such as the aforementioned Show-a-Profit, also Improving Beyers Figures, and just recently the Only One II (TIPS based spot play) which was a collaboration with a New Jersey handicapper.

You'll find consistent themes in our writings: namely study to keep your skills sharp; discipline; keep good records so you can review what you've done and try to learn and improve from that; don't be afraid to use your judgment; use what works for you - don't keep hopping all over the place; and don't be afraid to be conservative - afterall profits is what we're after, not necessarily action!

Again, if you have any questions for me, just let me know!

Sincerely,

Jon

multibag
06-11-2001, 04:29 PM
Rocajock,
I do not have spot plays. That is why it takes me four hours to work up each card.
While my best results have been in turf routes, there can be good and bad results on any surface or distance.
As the idea is trainer intention, it is more where a trainer spots his horse on a particular day then me thinking about specific things like sprint, route etc.
Some rotten trainers run their horses every chance they get hoping for a score. You have to know these trainers at the tracks you bet. The WUTT, which I do believe is a valuable tip normally, means nothing when these trainers are running horses until they break down.
multibag

John
06-11-2001, 07:16 PM
Multibag

I am beginning to get the idea. Competent Trainers can win off of angles and incompetent trainers can not. At Philly a hand full of the same trainers will win most of the races and what few race are left go to the rest.

Thanks for the post I find it very informative

Multibag, can you tell me over the ten years what tracks you favor with TIPS.....

multibag
06-11-2001, 08:26 PM
Hi,
Used to live near Philly and did Pha then. When I moved I got away from doing that track as outlets didn't take it.
Had good success at Penn Nat'l before they closed down for a while but got away from them also as they can't get any fields now. More recently have been doing Calder, Tampa Bay, Sam Houston and Monmouth Park. Good thing they all don't run at the same time or I'd be a blind man.
multibag

John
06-11-2001, 09:07 PM
multibag

by the looks of your list. I guess tips pretty much fits all east coast tracks..

Thanks for the input..........

McSock
02-28-2008, 04:58 PM
Can anyone give contact info for Jon? I tried the link from this thread and did not get a reply. I am very much interested in learning the tips methods.

completebill
02-28-2008, 06:25 PM
Please refer to the Handicapping Software area of PaceAdvantage. There's a lengthy discussion of the computerized TIPS program, now available, including a lot of input from the person who wrote the program.
I'm using it, with success!

John
02-28-2008, 06:59 PM
Please refer to the Handicapping Software area of PaceAdvantage. There's a lengthy discussion of the computerized TIPS program, now available, including a lot of input from the person who wrote the program.
I'm using it, with success!

completebill,That is interesting... would you mind shareing how you are using TIPS software. :)

completebill
02-28-2008, 08:36 PM
completebill,That is interesting... would you mind shareing how you are using TIPS software. :)

First, although you'll have to wade through a lot of crap, go through the pops-tips thread on the Handicapping Software board. Len himself provides a lot of useful info.
See John's post of 2-26 in which he discusses a method of using TCF, Brown, & EPS in conjunction. This produces quite a few fair-priced winners--look for a significant gap in total to next-rated horse
The only specific Tips I look for are Significant Triples and Super Clusters. Horses that have them are worth a very hard look, especially if ranked high in Total Tips and/or "Total"
See the discussions on pg. 2 of the pops-tip thread under the General Handicapping. section--Useful info on the WUTT Tip--not great as a stand-alone, but important in conjunction w/ some of the things I already mentioned, as well as if included in a high rank on Total Tips.
Somewhere in the forum under Hdcpng Sftwr, Len defines the criteria for the "Bonus" selections recommended by the program. I'm showing profits betting those horses W/P @ M/L of 10-1 and up.
If you find a horse w/ Top # of Tips, but it is not top-ranked on "Total", prefer the Tips.
Always look for price--I won't go near a fav unless it's way on top in all 3 programs.
If a decent price, I'll bet most horses that show a significant edge in Total tips.
Hope this is helpful. It's great that Tom Worth himself is now participating in the forum discussion!--------Good Luck!---Bill