My Official Derby Analysis

[PaceAdvantage]

Not that we need another opinion on this race, but it is my site, and I guess I should let my opinion about the Derby be known......however wrong it may turn out to be....

First off, Sinister Minister has zero shot to hit the board, let alone win. If he finishes better than 9th, I'd be shocked. If ever there was a horse labeled a "contender" more unsuited to get 10f at Churchill Downs, I don't know who it might be. This guy has one of the worst late figs in the field, and there is no doubt he will be part of a hot pace. Total toss for me.

Main Contenders (in no particular order):

The other horse coming into this race off a "monster" win, Sweetnorthernsaint, is quite intriguing. He's the only horse in the race who consistently seems to get faster from the middle to the end of the race. For you Sartin fans, I used both his Illinois Derby and Gotham pacelines, and see his F2=53.16 and his F3=53.57 Very unusual, and probably quite beneficial in a race such as this. He's got a big shot.

Barbaro along with Brother Derek are the two biggest threats (no surprise there). I think Barbaro is the better of the two, and may offer a better price. If it weren't for the constant press thrown at his trainer, Michael Matz, his price would probably be a lot bigger come Derby day. After all, he only won the Florida Derby by a 1/2 length, and his 103 Beyer fig is certainly not a standout in this field. Anything over his morning line is value. Barbaro is the only horse in the race with a quality turn time that also backs it up with a solid final fraction time. He'll be making his move at the right time and have enough left late. The trip for him will be the key.

Speaking of trips, Brother Derek certainly has been getting plenty of good ones lately, against short California fields. No doubt he has the talent and has every right to be the favorite, but do you really want to back a favorite in a 20 horse field who

probably will be about 5 lengths off the early pace
suffered his only two career losses when more than 1/2 length out of it at the first call
is breaking from the 18 post.
When one considers point #3 in light of points #1 and #2, one wonders how Alex Solis is going to conjure up another dreamy trip for Brother Derek.

Sharp Humor is my "PaceAdvantage.Com Longshot" And why not? He only finished 1/2 length behind one of my major contenders, Barbaro, and he's going to get lost in the betting shuffle, and may end up 25-1. Probably the best value play of the field. The only reason he isn't my top pick is because he is much more vulnerable to getting cooked on the front end, as he has shown nothing but an affinity to battle early. If Guidry can get this boy to rate, look out.

Other horses with a chance to fill out the exotics: Point Determined (great running style for this race, but perhaps a tad too slow compared to the main contenders), Bluegrass Cat (throw out the Blue Grass, ironically, and you have yourself a possible sleeper), Deputy Glitters & Jazil (these two WILL be there late, but traffic and too much ground to make up may take its toll).

One other horse getting a lot of play from the "wiseguys" is A.P. Warrior, and I for one just don't get it. Yes, he's got the Derby winning trainer from last year, and yes he's sired by A.P. Indy, but seriously, where has he shown ANYWHERE that he wants to go a mile and a quarter? In every one of his last FOUR races he has lost ground late. In seven of his eight lifetime races, he has failed to register above 51fps in the final fraction (another Sartin velocity reference). There are too many other quality closers in the race to seriously think A.P. Warrior is the one to beat late. Yes, he has very good turn time, but that won't help much during the final eighth....

What about Lawyer Ron you ask? Too slow. Period. The underlay of the day. 14 races under his belt coming into the Kentucky Derby, and racing EVERY MONTH since August of 2005. If this horse were trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the ASPCA would have to hire additional help just to handle all the complaints they'd be getting. Selling a majority interest in him BEFORE the Derby was a shrewd move. He reminds me of a male version of Meadow Star.

So, enough of my prognostications. Bottom line, here are my picks for Derby 132:

Barbaro
Brother Derek
Sweetnorthernsaint
Sharp Humor

[JPinMaryland]

Not bad. But give me one reason to keep Bluegrass cat in my exotics. :ThmbUp:

[kingfin66]

I found your analysis both well thought out and well written. I also agree with much of what you said, but have a few points and questions.

First, just as you say that if one likes Barbaro they should also like Sharp Humor, so too should people who like Point Determined also support A.P Warrior. They have very similar talent levels. One thing about the Sharp Humor/Barbaro pairing. You have that whole Florida Derby 5-week thing to deal with. There may or may not be validity to it, but I don't expect both of those horses to hit the board. I agree with Barbaro being top notch and will take the position, as you seemingly have, that Sharp Humor either can't get 1-1/4 or will be hurt by the pace, or both.

Why throw out Bluegrasscat's BlueGrass Stakes? It does not look as though he had an excuse. Personally, I don't think it matters what race is used, he comes up short. Neither of the Tampa runners fared well once they took on stiffer competition. I feel comfortable tossing both Bluegrasscat and Deputy Glitters.

I believe you are dead on about Brother Derek. I really like this horse and was convinced that he was going to win the Derby. The 18 hole is a lot to overcome even for a great horse, which I think he is even if others do not.

Lawyer Ron - too slow period. Isn't that something, a horse has six straight wins, is the one of the favorites to win the race, and you call him too slow? Once again, I am in agreement and consider him a toss.

I can't find the quality closers in the race. I don't think much of Jazil or Steppenwolfer as closers in this race. Steppenwolfer reminds me of Borrego (my total bust of a Derby horse from 2 yrs ago), while Jazil closed into leaders that looked like they were going to drop dead on the track in the Wood. Both of those also get buried on the rail ensuring that they will have a long way to come if they want to achieve glory. One interesting closer is the Hollendorfer/Baze runner Cause to Believe. He has shown that he can close on the California tracks which are not known for closers. I will cut him slack for the Illinois Derby performance due to the slower than normal (for him) pace.

I see this Derby being won in a similary fashion as Smarty Jones/Funny Cide. A horse will need to be near (within 4-5 lengths of the lead) to have a shot, then pounce.

I too like Sweetnorthernsaint and will likely key him in a trifecta with Bro D, Barbaro, Cause to Believe, Point Determined, A.P. Warrior and two others, for a total of 7. One note about 'Saint. I think he will actually run a little bit more like a closer than he has shown. His demonstrated ability to rate will serve him well and his lack of exceptional speed will put him midpack - not a bad place to be in this field. He can then use that middle and late energy to cruise to victory.

Good luck on Saturday, and once again, thanks for an insightful analysis.

[PaceAdvantage]

Not bad. But give me one reason to keep Bluegrass cat in my exotics. :ThmbUp:

To me, his speed figures scream of a horse ready to run a new high. Plus he has shown the ability to rate, and his late numbers aren't all that bad. Don't forget the monster price.

I've given you 4 reasons....dang!

(This all assumes his last race is an aberration)

[JPinMaryland]

what is he supposed to be a stalker? front runner? E/P? weird.

[DrugSalvastore]

A. P. Warrior is the horse I will be betting in this years Kentucky Derby. Sweetnorthernsaint is the horse I fear most. I think it is a race that anyone of ten different horses can run 3rd---but I see AP War and SNS as the big two.

As for the KY Oaks---no need to get real fancy with my exotics in that one. Balance over Wonder Lady Anne L. and cold.

Oaks-Derby Double: Balance and Wonder Lady Anne L. OVER AP WAR and SNS

[PaceAdvantage]

what is he supposed to be a stalker? front runner? E/P? weird.

I don't understand the question. It's pretty obvious what Bluegrass Cat's running style is, isn't it?

I'm not sure why there is so much focus on Bluegrass Cat. I merely mentioned the colt as a possible fill for trifectas and superfectas. And it's not like he's a bad horse. He threw in a bit of a clunker last time, but then again, Sinister Minister went all freaky on us, and I firmly believe SM has absolutely no shot to win. Bluegrass Cat will be a monster price, and has a very real shot at hitting the board. That's all I'm saying.

[PaceAdvantage]

A. P. Warrior is the horse I will be betting in this years Kentucky Derby.

Really? I don't see it at all. You're in good company though, I suppose. AP is Beyer's pick as well as Grening's and Litfin's.

Lightning isn't going to strike twice for Shirreffs, and anyone who thinks this horse is a powerful late threat is deluding themselves. The pace numbers just don't support this contention.

[OTM Al]

A.P. Warrior is on nearly everyone's picks in the DRF and like you PA I just don't get it either. The more I look at him the more I see a horse that is quitting down the lane. He lost ground in every single race that he did not have P Val on his back. Even if he is up near the leaders coming home, I expect him to be getting passed early and often. He won't be on my tickets and he is the wiseguy horse of this Derby without question

[rrpic6]

Not that we need another opinion on this race, but it is my site, and I guess I should let my opinion about the Derby be known......however wrong it may turn out to be....

First off, Sinister Minister has zero shot to hit the board, let alone win. If he finishes better than 9th, I'd be shocked. If ever there was a horse labeled a "contender" more unsuited to get 10f at Churchill Downs, I don't know who it might be. This guy has one of the worst late figs in the field, and there is no doubt he will be part of a hot pace. Total toss for me.

Main Contenders (in no particular order):

The other horse coming into this race off a "monster" win, Sweetnorthernsaint, is quite intriguing. He's the only horse in the race who consistently seems to get faster from the middle to the end of the race. For you Sartin fans, I used both his Illinois Derby and Gotham pacelines, and see his F2=53.16 and his F3=53.57 Very unusual, and probably quite beneficial in a race such as this. He's got a big shot.

Barbaro along with Brother Derek are the two biggest threats (no surprise there). I think Barbaro is the better of the two, and may offer a better price. If it weren't for the constant press thrown at his trainer, Michael Matz, his price would probably be a lot bigger come Derby day. After all, he only won the Florida Derby by a 1/2 length, and his 103 Beyer fig is certainly not a standout in this field. Anything over his morning line is value. Barbaro is the only horse in the race with a quality turn time that also backs it up with a solid final fraction time. He'll be making his move at the right time and have enough left late. The trip for him will be the key.

Speaking of trips, Brother Derek certainly has been getting plenty of good ones lately, against short California fields. No doubt he has the talent and has every right to be the favorite, but do you really want to back a favorite in a 20 horse field who

probably will be about 5 lengths off the early pace
suffered his only two career losses when more than 1/2 length out of it at the first call
is breaking from the 18 post.
When one considers point #3 in light of points #1 and #2, one wonders how Alex Solis is going to conjure up another dreamy trip for Brother Derek.

Sharp Humor is my "PaceAdvantage.Com Longshot" And why not? He only finished 1/2 length behind one of my major contenders, Barbaro, and he's going to get lost in the betting shuffle, and may end up 25-1. Probably the best value play of the field. The only reason he isn't my top pick is because he is much more vulnerable to getting cooked on the front end, as he has shown nothing but an affinity to battle early. If Guidry can get this boy to rate, look out.

Other horses with a chance to fill out the exotics: Point Determined (great running style for this race, but perhaps a tad too slow compared to the main contenders), Bluegrass Cat (throw out the Blue Grass, ironically, and you have yourself a possible sleeper), Deputy Glitters & Jazil (these two WILL be there late, but traffic and too much ground to make up may take its toll).

One other horse getting a lot of play from the "wiseguys" is A.P. Warrior, and I for one just don't get it. Yes, he's got the Derby winning trainer from last year, and yes he's sired by A.P. Indy, but seriously, where has he shown ANYWHERE that he wants to go a mile and a quarter? In every one of his last FOUR races he has lost ground late. In seven of his eight lifetime races, he has failed to register above 51fps in the final fraction (another Sartin velocity reference). There are too many other quality closers in the race to seriously think A.P. Warrior is the one to beat late. Yes, he has very good turn time, but that won't help much during the final eighth....

What about Lawyer Ron you ask? Too slow. Period. The underlay of the day. 14 races under his belt coming into the Kentucky Derby, and racing EVERY MONTH since August of 2005. If this horse were trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the ASPCA would have to hire additional help just to handle all the complaints they'd be getting. Selling a majority interest in him BEFORE the Derby was a shrewd move. He reminds me of a male version of Meadow Star.

So, enough of my prognostications. Bottom line, here are my picks for Derby 132:

Barbaro
Brother Derek
Sweetnorthernsaint
Sharp Humor
Selling Lawyer Ron before the Derby has nothing to do with being shrewd. Since the untimely death of James Hines, his family is in the process of downsizing their racing interests. If he's alive, he keeps everything the same. Lawyer Ron has won 6 straight on dirt, yet he's being dissed because of his average speed figures. He's been winning very professionally and efficiently. This will come in handy when 150,000 people are screaming when the horses turn for home. Al Davis said "just win baby", and that's what Lawyer Ron likes to do. Plus you gotta love his name, I sure do.

[chrisg]

I like your analysis PA; thanks for posting that. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

Selling Lawyer Ron before the Derby has nothing to do with being shrewd. Since the untimely death of James Hines, his family is in the process of downsizing their racing interests. If he's alive, he keeps everything the same. Lawyer Ron has won 6 straight on dirt, yet he's being dissed because of his average speed figures. He's been winning very professionally and efficiently. This will come in handy when 150,000 people are screaming when the horses turn for home. Al Davis said "just win baby", and that's what Lawyer Ron likes to do. Plus you gotta love his name, I sure do.

I'm flattered you quoted my entire post.

With that said, I have nothing personal against the horse or want to make light of the situation the family is facing since the death of James Hines. However, that isn't going to change my objective opinion about the horse. He's too slow, and unless something miraculous occurs Saturday, he's up the track.

Regardless of the family's intentions, it's still a shrewd move. They are getting maximum value for the horse by selling him prior to his more than likely failed Derby attempt.

[Turntime]

On A.P. Warrior:

Watching the replay of the San Felipe I get the impression that he's anything but a quitter. He accelerated nicely in the 4 path going into the turn past a well placed Point Determined, then recharged inside the 1/16 pole when hooked by that one (it appeared, as they say, that they could have gone around again and he wouldn't get caught). He won't be forced into a watchdog role as he was in the SA Derby (I believe the plan is to sit around 10th early) and his push button acceleration may help him make the winning move if the speed collapses as predicted.

The fact that so many 'experts' are picking him does not sit well, but otherwise I think he gets the 1 1/4 mile distance and is a big threat to hit the board.

[PaceAdvantage]

On A.P. Warrior:

Watching the replay of the San Felipe I get the impression that he's anything but a quitter. He accelerated nicely in the 4 path going into the turn past a well placed Point Determined, then recharged inside the 1/16 pole when hooked by that one (it appeared, as they say, that they could have gone around again and he wouldn't get caught).

Oh yes, A.P. Warrior has excellent turn time, so I'm not surprised with your visual description above. It's his final fraction number that worries the hell out of me. I guess we'll see how it plays out tomorrow....

[Turntime]

PA:

Agreed. Since I have a $300 future bet at 22-1, I'm hoping he can redistribute some of that turn energy to later in the race.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA:

Agreed. Since I have a $300 future bet at 22-1, I'm hoping he can redistribute some of that turn energy to later in the race.

22-1 probably isn't a bad price considering all the play this horse has been getting in the DRF....hell, he's the top Consensus selection!

[Bruddah]

This race screams "TOTAL MELTDOWN" and "Puking the Bit" after 9f. Not just because of the pace, but the Prep races scream it, as well. There is only one horse in the race, which has signaled, they are capable of the Ky Derby distance and pressure. As for me, I am going with Jazil. His final 1/4 times in the Wood and FOY, both a fast and sloppy surface are 24.7 and 24.8, respectively. He also has the Raise A Native sire line, plus a preferred running style. (JMHO) and Good Luck to all.

[NYPlayer]

My analysis using Sheets (primarily).

Sweetnorthernsaint - Has some of the best numbers with no significant reactions to top efforts. Has shown balanced speed and off the pace style before. I expect a stalking trip will be employed.

Barbaro - A forward move seems imminent after breaking through slighty from 2yo top by a point (on Sheets). Trip should be from off the pace. Prime for exacta over and under.

Bob & John Excellent condition line (no bounces) and could make another forward move. Pacewise he likes to stay close, but he's shown he can race at close quarters and still win. Also has off the pace style. Exacta contender both sides.

Point Determined - Very Similar line to B&J. Obvious closer. Exacta contender.

Keyed Entry - Had two competitive tops, then bounced, but not too badly. Can rebound ro possilby make a new top. Marginal exacta contender but will include for a small piece a long price.

Key Throw outs

Sinister Minister - Huge effort last out. A big reaction seems certain, but could be setting the pace for most of the way.

Brother Derek - Has yet to eclipse his 2yo top, running style is typically close to the pace (tough if Sinister Minister and AP Warrior are on the pace and, especially difficult to get any kind of good trip from post 18.

[PaceAdvantage]

The more I look at SNS, the more I think this horse could be something really special. I think my money is going to be going on Barbaro and SNS, although it seems like SNS is getting a lot of early support in the betting.....

Forget about Sinister Minister being a freak, I think the real potential freak is Sweetnorthernsaint.

[Tom]

Wasn' he gelded just before that big win?
He looks to me to be the horse that is going to come out on top of this crop.
7-1 right now.....

[toetoe]

This year, for a change, I'm crazy about a horse, instead of looking at a bunch of plugs, trying to get 50/1 so as to justify playing him. 'Saint will be canonized.

[linrom1]

Private Vow They don't breed them like that anymore. Belmont is in the bag, and KY is just a prep race for Belmont. Two bookends of a Triple Crown at decent odds. :D $$$$$

[RXB]

This race screams "TOTAL MELTDOWN" and "Puking the Bit" after 9f. Not just because of the pace, but the Prep races scream it, as well.

This is the one feature of the race that seems entirely predictable. The rest of this affair is wildly up in the air, but I'll be very surprised if we don't see a sub-1:10 6f (assuming a relatively normal track speed).

I went through the last 40 Derbies and only one horse-- Spend A Buck-- won after running less than 1:10 2/5 to 6f.

[rrbauer]

PA writes:
"First off, Sinister Minister has zero shot to hit the board, let alone win. If he finishes better than 9th, I'd be shocked. If ever there was a horse labeled a "contender" more unsuited to get 10f at Churchill Downs, I don't know who it might be. This guy has one of the worst late figs in the field, and there is no doubt he will be part of a hot pace. Total toss for me."

Comment:
Watch the Bluegrass replay. Consider that GG was gearing him down after they passed the 1/8 pole. I don't know which "late fig" you're looking at. He and Sweetnorthernsaint both qualify for my "front-runner that closes" label and earn identical power figs from their respective last races. The most discouraging thing to me is that on Friday SM was being bet! These two are the only ones that do not need to improve to win!

For those that think there will be a big pace meltdown why would you leave out Jazil?

[Dave Schwartz]

Preliminary Contenders

I will revise this after scratches and track conditions.

For now, it would appear that Brother Derek is the horse to bet against.




CD 10 (o:Line$) Val=0) Bet Int=20 Min=+ 7:58:56
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
8 Barbaro C 4 16.1 $1.61 -4.9 6
11 Sweetnorthernsaint C 10 15.1 $3.32 6.6 6
18 Brother Derek C 3 14.2 $1.14 -14.3 7
6 Showing Up C 20 12.4 $5.21 8.0 8
3 Keyed Entry C 30 11.1 $6.91 8.2 8

Cont Prob= 69.0 Odds=0.45:1 Book Pct= 62 Dutch= 0.61:1

[TomC]

Hi All:
I have about 2 dozen e-mails asking what I am playing in the Derby, so I thought I would post them here just for fun. They are, in order:

#4 Sinister Minister
#11 SweetNorthernSaint
#18 Brother Derek
#3 Keyed Entry
#17 Lawyer Ron
#8 Barbaro

I bet the 4 and 11 to win.
I boxed the top 3 in a tri and exactas
I boxed all 6 in a tri
I keyed the 4 & 11 in tri's and supers

Just my opinion, and fun to watch on TV.

Good luck to all.

TomC

[JPinMaryland]

"I went through the last 40 Derbies and only one horse-- Spend A Buck-- won after running less than 1:10 2/5 to 6f." Rxb.

Right. ANother astute comment from Rxb, one of many that are right on.

But you've sort of waffled on a couple of horses though. I think you are holding out your real favorites from us.

[RXB]

Not waffling, JP. Honest opinions. Nothing inspires a lot of confidence. The horses on/near the front should fold, but I'm also struck by the weaknesses of the closers (and reputed closers-- still waiting for someone to explain how Point Determined is a legit closer).

If it were just a matter of matching up final times and finishing ability, Sweetnorthernsaint would look like a standout. But since I can't be sure that he can rate midpack and win, I don't have tons of confidence in him.

The rest of them all have major question marks.

[JPinMaryland]

There's at least one horse, I was thinking, "you know this guy might be a real good pick, if only he had xyz but everyone says he's bla bla" ...so I looked again at the PPs and the film and thought no he does have xyz. I go back to the message board and I see you had mentioned the very same thing! Viola, definitely thinking on the same page.


Probably a coincidence but He's one I'm keying on.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know which "late fig" you're looking at. He and Sweetnorthernsaint both qualify for my "front-runner that closes" label and earn identical power figs from their respective last races.

I'm looking at the F3 numbers with HTR. Unless HTR is completely wrong, there is absolutely no comparison between the two horses. SM has only once in his life ran a race with an F3 ABOVE 50!?! And that was his last race, and even then, it was barely above 50....it was something like 50.27

In comparison, SNS has only ONE F3 BELOW 53!!! And that was in his second career start. His F3 numbers absolutely BLOW AWAY Sinister Minister. In fact, SNS has more than once run F3 numbers HIGHER than his F2 numbers. I find this quite unusual, and indicative that this horse may truly be a FREAK.

One of us is either very right or very wrong. Here's hoping I'm the one who is right....lol

My actual wagers are going to be keying Barbaro and SNS. I don't think there will be any value in Brother Derek, although I think he is a very talented colt.

[depalma13]

1 Jazil (BAT 91.5+) Made a big closing move against what was the fastest pace of all the preps. The type of move coming around the far turn and closing into the stretch is one of the angles I really like to play. He bled through Lasix 2 back (not a good sign). With the expected pace he should get another favorable trip. Unlike last year’s race winner, this guy doesn’t run his same pace throughout. He picks it up after the half mile pole. That type of race will put him 35 - 40 lengths back in this one. Even if the half is run in sub :46, you are looking at a :52 - :54 for this guy. There is too much talent and too many horses for him to get another dream trip He will be flying late, but my guess he only passes tiring horse to get a top 10 finish. PASS

2 Steppenwolfer (BAT 94+) Continues to pick up the pieces while chasing Lawyer Ron. His sire finished second in 2000. Should relish the distance, but like Jazil is going to have to come from the clouds to do it. Has never topped a 94 Beyer and that number won’t hit the board with this group. Maybe sneaks into the bottom of the super if the race falls apart. Other than that can’t see it. BOTTOM OF SUPERS

3 Keyed Entry ( BAT 107.5-) This horse perplexes me. He has the speed figures to compete with and beat all of these, but they have declined as the distance gets longer. Coming from the three hole will allow him to sit right behind Sinister Minister and if P Val makes that decision. He is the only one fast enough to take on SM and force the issue, but if he does, he loses all chance. If he rates and moves at the top of the stretch, he just might find himself on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go. The stalkers will be coming and he might not have enough to hang on for the win, but a possible third or fourth on speed figures alone is there for the taking. Prado doesn’t think he can get the distance, Pletcher isn’t so sure. Can’t get over a horse who only loses the Wood by 2 lengths, trained by Pletcher going from 4/5 in the Wood to 45-1 in the Derby. That alone is worth a cheap win bet. BOTTOM OF TRIFECTAS $2 WIN BET

4 Sinister Minister ( BAT 103.5+) This horse is getting the lead, he is one seriously fast animal. Who goes with him? The horse that does, will lose all shot at winning. He seems to like to rail dive. Baffert said it is because he gets skiddish and both times he has lugged in to toward the rail (hitting it in California and trying in Keeneland) where because the gate spooked him. If the gate spooks him this time, it will be coming out of the far turn, and if he is in the lead, it could get real ugly real fast. The horse doesn’t change leads and won’t relax. Whether he has competition or not I see him on the lead through fractions in the :22 - :45 range. Unless he runs the field into the ground, he will be long gone at the finish. His odds are way too low to make a case for that. PASS

5 Point Determined ( BAT 101.5E) Horse was my Derby future bet in the first pool. Like with Funny Cide, I expected him to get a graded win before entering the derby starting gate. Didn’t happen, but that one still cashed, so I have hope here. He sort of hung in his race 2 back and was pushed for second money in his last. His 5 furlong work against DaStoops was an all out effort. His last work was a thing of beauty. He has a top five BAT which is a huge plus and tops the 101 cutoff, albeit barely, for a winner profile. He may be coming into this one with a peak effort and the pace should be to his liking. If they get crazy up front, he will be there with a chance at the wire. PLAY ALL POSITIONS

6 Showing Up ( BAT 99.5) One of two horses owners have in race. Barclay Tagg hates the media hype with the derby and avoids it with all but his best hopes. Horse has done nothing wrong since its debut, but this may be too much to soon. I expect him to be a good one later in the year, but not today. PASS

7 Bob and John ( BAT 100.5E) Last Saturday, Bob McNair made what was probably the worst decision in the history of the NFL draft. His reward should not be a Kentucky Derby win. Now onto the horse. Came east to get away from Brother Derek, turned out to be a good move with the Wood win. Seeking the Gold’s love the slop and I think he benefited greatly from an off track that day. Broke his maiden at a mile and afterward Baffert declared him his derby winner. He hasn’t waivered much from that statement since. He has been working tremendously and should come into this in peak form. I’m giving Keyed Entry a shot based on his speed figures. This one just hovers around 100, but he did beat Keyed Entry. California group seems pretty good this year. BOTTOM OF TRIFECTAS

8 Barbaro (BAT 100+) Undefeated Florida Derby winner gets a lot of press for hanging out in his stall. He has won every time they have taken him to the track, so he can’t be faulted because they don’t want to race him. He will try to achieve something that is not only very tough for 3 year-olds, but all age horses in general, winning at a mile and a quarter after with very little seasoning. He has looked fantastic in morning workouts, but he should , the horse is begging for a race. I just don’t think he wants that race to be a mile and a quarter. He isn’t as fast as the speed horses in here and will be forced to come from off the pace. If he isn’t rank and can settle, he has a shot to be a round at the finish, but I don’t think we will see him in the winners circle. BOTTOM OF EXACTAS AND TRIFECTAS

9 Sharp Humor (BAT 99.5+) Was a game second in the Florida Derby and I believe had he been on the outside, he probably would have won it. Far more pace in today’s race, and he isn’t fast enough to compete with it. May get a call early, but they’ll be looking for him late. PASS

10 A.P. Warrior (BAT 100.5E) Another of the California contingent. He did the dirty work in the SA Derby and it cost him at the finish. Before that he got his graded win. He may be bred to run all day, but he certainly doesn’t run like it. He has been quite erratic in his pp’s. His best finishes have come when he was close to the pace. He isn’t going there in this race, and I can’t see him winning this. If California is as strong as they appear, maybe he finds 3rd or 4th. BOTTOM OF TRIFECTAS

11 Sweetnorthernsaint (BAT 106.5+) Horse has done nothing wrong. He chased a slow pace in the Gotham and was still past those horses just beyond the wire. Shipped to Illinois for the easy graded money and that is what he got, destroying the field, Trainer said he was a little sore a couple of days ago and that may be his only strike. Top two in the BAT and continues to improve. His closing kick is devastating. This is a serious race horse. PLAY ALL POSITIONS

12 Private Vow (BAT 93.5+) About the only thing good I can say about this horse is he is third off the layoff and has a win a Churchill. Other than that he hasn’t improve at all since he was a two year-old. He lost ground in the Arkansas Derby in the stretch which isn’t a good sign when they are going an extra furlong. PASS

13 Bluegrass Cat (BAT 97.5 -) Was never a factor in the Bluegrass, and quit after running a :47 half. There is no excuse for that. I don’t like Storm Cat’s at a mile and a quarter, and this guy doesn’t look like he is going to suddenly become Giant’s Causeway at the distance. Did have a dream that he won the race. Of course in that dream, Victor Espinoza called for a jockey strike and all but Bluegrass Cat stopped running after the first turn. PASS

14 Deputy Glitters (BAT 98 - ) Was this guy named after a male stripper or a real cop? Maybe NBC will let us know with one of their numerous heart warming stories. The horse clearly hates the slop and should have been scratched out of the Wood. If you drop his two efforts in the slop, he really isn’t that bad. Horses coming through Tampa are hit or miss in the derby exotics. Limehouse and Menifee being the best. He’s the longest shot on the board, and I’ll need a bomb somewhere in my exotics. BOTTOM EXACTAS AND TRIFECTAS

15 Seaside Retreat (BAT 81-) Other than he had a bullet five furlong workout, there is nothing good to say about this horse. PASS

16 Cause to Believe (BAT 95-) Pride of Northern California caught a paceless race in Illinois and was taken out of his game. He followed that up with a terrible workout. He has hit the board in every race he has ever been in, but these are much better than his usually crowd. Other than his win over Sinister Minister when that one went rail diving, he hasn’t beaten any quality. PASS

17 Lawyer Ron (BAT 96.5+) Has never lost on real dirt, but he has been awfully slow racing on it. Other than his big number early on in Louisiana he hasn’t showed much figure wise. As Al Davis says, “just win baby” and that’s what Lawyer Ron does. Maybe he only races to the level of his competition. I think his Risen Star may be more of an abberation. As much as I like the guy and with great trepidation…PASS

18 Brother Derek (BAT 108+) He’s a speed horse who drew outside. There is a ton of speed in this race. He is the high BAT horse and has done nothing wrong since he defeated Stevie Wonderboy to take over the top spot. He hasn’t shown an ability to rate and win in any of his races. He is leaving the comforts of home. He was dueling in the Santa Catalina and overcame it for the win. He didn’t look like a horse who wanted to rate in his workout. On figures alone, he is good enough to win, but will the pace will take him out of his game? He’s just may be to good to pass up especially if his odds stay high. Will use him as a SAVER ON SOME TICKETS.

19 Storm Treasure (BAT 90+) He is the only horse that has raced on a different track in everyone of his starts,. He gets a return trip to Churchill where he broke his maiden and has his only win to date. Other than Tampa, which can be a tough surface for some horses, he has been second in every race but his maiden win. If he gets the pace to run at, he will be passing several horses late. How far will that get him? Maybe third or 4th. BOTTOM OF EXACTAS AND TRIFECTAS

20 Flashy Bull (BAT 91.5-) This is a marketing ploy for West Point. Now they can say they have had a derby horse. He doesn’t want any part of a mile and quarter. Shouldn’t be in the race, but he did qualify by the rules, so they have a right to be there. Strange things happen in the derby, but I can’t see this horse at all. PASS

TOP PICKS: Sweetnorthernsaint. Point Determined

$10 win Sweetnorthernsaint.

$2 win

Keyed Entry = $2

$1 Exacta

Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined/ Barbaro, A.P Warrior, Storm Treasure, Deputy Glitters = $8

$1 Exacta Box

Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined = $6

$1 Trifecta:

Point Determined, Sweetnorthernsaint / Those two, Barbaro/over those three, A.P. Warrior, Deputy Glitters, Storm Treasure, Keyed Entry, Bob and John = $24

$1 Trikey

Brother Derek/ SNS, Point Determined, Barbaro = $6

$1 Superfecta

Sweetnorthensaint/ Point Determined/ Storm Treasure/ Barbaro, Keyed Entry, Steppenwolfer, A.P. Warrior, Deputy Glitters, Bob and John = $7

TOTAL: $63

[PaceAdvantage]

Odds are up....one of the most wide open Derbies ever...favorite right now with 36 minutes to go is Barbaro at 6-1......ugh....I really can't believe Barbaro is the favorite....

Brother Derek 8-1 at the moment? At that price, I have to put some money on him....doubt it will hold at 8-1, but it won't drop all that much....

Keyed Entry at 36-1 is very tempting....

28-1 on Sharp Humor is also very tempting

7-1 on SNS....I hope that holds....any lower and it's too low IMO....

I will wait until about 5mtp to bet, but as of now, I think the best wagers are Brother Derek and SNS....

[PaceAdvantage]

WOW. I can't believe Barbaro won so easily, even though he was my official top pick. I had money on SNS, Barbaro and Brother Derek, but basically broke even, cause I used Barbaro as a saver of sorts.....

I think I outthunk myself once I got to the window.....

[PaceAdvantage]

Not bad. But give me one reason to keep Bluegrass cat in my exotics. :ThmbUp:

I wish I had listened to my own advice more thoroughly.....

[Tom]

PA....*sigh* - we both talked about how good he looked last night.
I had 4 horses and guess who I threw out?:mad:

Did you see the modified Fig2 sheet Donnie posted at HTR? Real cool....gotta see if Ken will make that Fig3.

[FormalGold1]

Pace Advantage:

Congratulations on your insight of Bluegrass Cat. He was sitting on a big race.
I had a superfecta with only Jazil and Steppenwolfer boxed in 3rd and 4th. Unfortunately I stressed the Cal horses on top.

[bigmack]

I'm new around these parts and I have no idea why I'm participating but that was very eloquent pace work on your part PA. Sounds like you're working with some good data and the wherewithall to decipher. Kudos.

[JPinMaryland]

" Bluegrass Cat (BAT 97.5 -) .... Did have a dream that he won the race...."

DePalma are you the same guy posting on the other board? Have gotten a lot out of those posts...BUt man, you didnt bet your dream horse?

What the hell kind of bettor are you? Let me tell you something, the kid sitting next to me at the OTB last year was named Jack. All day long I was looking for a sign and and then I figured it out...

[JPinMaryland]

I wish I had listened to my own advice more thoroughly.....

Yeah you and me too buddy. :faint:

Everything you said, kinda made sense except for Bluegrass kitty,that's why I asked you to elaborate. I had tosed him long ago and never really looked closely at him though, I know he was tearing up the circuit a few months back Maybe the race was just flukey because Barbaro was unstoppable today could been anybody.


Did Bluegrass cat have cracked ribs or something??

I still wouldnt have picked this Bluegrass guy in a million years, what pace numbers were you working with? CJs? Beyers? Help!!! :bang:

[Zaf]

PA - Very nice insight on Bluegrass Cat :ThmbUp:

Did you notice the HTR PEDIGREE rating of 816 ??? OUCH .

In 2000 Aptitude had a HTR Ped Rating of 852 and he finished 2nd at 11-1.

In 2001 Invisible Ink had a HTR Ped Rating of 813 and he finished 2nd at 55-1.

In 2003 Empire Maker had a HTR Ped Rating of 951 and he finished 2nd at 5-2.

In 2005 Closing Argument had a HTR Ped Rating of 966 and he finished 2nd at 71-1.

In HTR any PED rating over 650 is HUGE.


I used Barbaro as a key in exactas on top/bottom of a few horses. After reading your post and Ken Massa's post on the HTR BB tabbing him as one of his bomb stabs, I left him out of my exactas DOHHHH :bang: Even with that 800+ PED rating :bang: :bang: :bang:

SO I cashed zero tickets on the race.

Oh well.

Z

[kingfin66]

WOW. I can't believe Barbaro won so easily, even though he was my official top pick. I had money on SNS, Barbaro and Brother Derek, but basically broke even, cause I used Barbaro as a saver of sorts.....

I think I outthunk myself once I got to the window.....

WTF!? You didn't use him? Dang, I came back to your analysis thread specifically to give you your props for Bluegrasscat. I questioned you about him and left him out. You were right and I was wr....I was wro...I was wron. Well, you know. I would much rather be hearing about your multi-thousand $ exacta at this point that "basically broke even." Still, nice call on BGC.

[depalma13]

Yep, that's me. I know. This is two years in a row that I didn't bet the "dream horse" across the board. Same thing happened with Closing Argument last year.

I'll probably just give up on handicapping from now on!

[rrpic6]

I'm flattered you quoted my entire post.

With that said, I have nothing personal against the horse or want to make light of the situation the family is facing since the death of James Hines. However, that isn't going to change my objective opinion about the horse. He's too slow, and unless something miraculous occurs Saturday, he's up the track.

Regardless of the family's intentions, it's still a shrewd move. They are getting maximum value for the horse by selling him prior to his more than likely failed Derby attempt.

The post was the best analysis of the 100 I had read this week. I ended up keying Point Determined, Barbaro, and SNS in exactas on top of Jazil, Steppenwolfer, Keyed Entry, Bob and John, Showing Up, Bluegrass Cat, Lawyer Ron, and Brother Derek. Great Exacta prices kept me from being upset over messing up the tri, as I flip-flopped 2nd and 3rd. Due to previous financial commitments, you'll just have to believe me, as I could not post my picks here.

[LemonSoupKid]

The post was the best analysis of the 100 I had read this week. I ended up keying Point Determined, Barbaro, and SNS in exactas on top of Jazil, Steppenwolfer, Keyed Entry, Bob and John, Showing Up, Bluegrass Cat, Lawyer Ron, and Brother Derek. Great Exacta prices kept me from being upset over messing up the tri, as I flip-flopped 2nd and 3rd. Due to previous financial commitments, you'll just have to believe me, as I could not post my picks here.

I believe you, and as you've seen, I threw out LR due to his times, his sub-par pace parameters, and his dosage. Why shouldn't I believe someone re: the Derby? My thing is that if you do well it isn't THAT impressive of your handicapping abiliies. I have killed it before, but mostly I break even or lose money. The fact is that it's a really random race. I'm more impressed with how people do in solid fields with invaders --> that is, the next two races. I say this because looking back, was there any doubt that horses like Point Given and Afleet Alex were the best? When you stick to your guns and the rest of the career of a horse proves his talent, that to me shows me your handicapping prowess (I might be shining myself here because this is exactly what I have done the last 5 years in the Preakness and Belmont).

Any early inclinations on the next race?

LSKid

[JPinMaryland]

Inclinations? I am counting on your Preakness record to find me winners for the next round. :kiss:

[rrpic6]

Any early inclinations on the next race?

LSKid

My best tip is to bet early if going to the Preakness live. The lines in the men's room are just as long as the teller lines. Looks like Barbaro will get Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Jazil to follow him there. Looks like Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer will skip the Preakness and try to run him down at the Belmont.:confused: They are already ganging up to stop Barbaro from winning the Triple Crown in 2006.

[BeatTheChalk]

Great call on Barbaro. I didnt run the Race on My Sartin Programs..but
It sounds like the horse was a Perfect Sustained Presser. And that kind of
horse wins lots of Derbies. Good job !

[kenwoodallpromos]

Any early inclinations on the next race?

LSKid

My best tip is to bet early if going to the Preakness live. The lines in the men's room are just as long as the teller lines. Looks like Barbaro will get Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Jazil to follow him there. Looks like Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer will skip the Preakness and try to run him down at the Belmont.:confused: They are already ganging up to stop Barbaro from winning the Triple Crown in 2006.
____________
Maybe you are joking, but since BD and SNS seems to like to run forwar the 1 3/16 Preakness seems to fit those- Steppenwolfer's trainer for months has said he needs more distance, at least since the Southwest Stakes that I know of. Resting up is what could be the advantage.
The fact that Barbaro did not come from very far out to lead a good deal of the race and then performed so well in the stretch is what makes me think there is a legitimate TC possibility.