Question for CJ

[Indulto]

CJ,

Is it OK to discuss the pace/final figures available on your website with others on this board? I am particulary interested in the impressive speed figures for Lawyer Ron, Sinister Minister, Bob and John, and Keyed Entry which suggest they can run fast both early and late.

CH has drummed into me that a figure for a horse loose on the lead is not to be trusted, but gives Sinister Minister a shot even though others here and elsewhere in cyberspace are freely tossing him. How do you feel about that, and would you consider sharing your own interpretation of your figures?

Thanks,
Indulto

[twindouble]

CJ,

Is it OK to discuss the pace/final figures available on your website with others on this board? I am particulary interested in the impressive speed figures for Lawyer Ron, Sinister Minister, Bob and John, and Keyed Entry which suggest they can run fast both early and late.

CH has drummed into me that a figure for a horse loose on the lead is not to be trusted, but gives Sinister Minister a shot even though others here and elsewhere in cyberspace are freely tossing him. How do you feel about that, and would you consider sharing your own interpretation of your figures?

Thanks,
Indulto

I'm looking at the race now, to me Keyed Entry is suspect for this distance, The Hutchesn was sly sealed track having his own way going 7 1/2 I would discount that speed figure and that proved out in the Wood in another Sly sealed track, Bob and John went by him going mile 1/8, this is mile 1/4 as you know, On a dry track with company early further discounts him. In the Gotham Sweetnorthernsaint put him away as well, mile 1/8. If I use Keyed Entry at all it will be deep in the super.


Freaking Sinister Minister reminds me of Ballamy Road, how can anyone square the Beyer figure with the DRF speed and variant in the Blue Grass?

What troubles me about Lawyer Ron is his post postion, theres a lot speed inside of him and I think he'll be used early just trying to get position but will still be left behind and wide, good horse but may get in more trouble than he can handle. Six wins in a row at lesser tracks and lesser horses throws up another flag, unless you see that company different than I. If he's that good, you would have to give Steppenwolfer a shot going this distance at big odds. Even Jazil if they can find openings in the stretch.

Don't get me wrong, I just started looking, maybe some feed back would do some good. Not an easy race that's for sure, so far I've got 5 knocked out.

T.D.

[Indulto]

Our very own CH participated in tonight’s DRF chat.

From the Crist Derby Chat transcript:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/chat_crist.html

classhandicapper:
Q: What do you peg the probability of Sinister Minsiter duplicating his last race at?
Steven_Crist:
Somewhere aroun d 10 percent, which makes him playable, at least as a saver, at over 10-1.CH,
Apparently you and the “King of the Pick Six” are in agreement.:D

[cj]

CJ,

Is it OK to discuss the pace/final figures available on your website with others on this board? I am particulary interested in the impressive speed figures for Lawyer Ron, Sinister Minister, Bob and John, and Keyed Entry which suggest they can run fast both early and late.



I think you may be misreading the figures. Here is an example from Bob and John:

Aqu 04/08/2006| 116 93 115 93 | 82| 52.73| 102*


The numbers are race pace, race speed, horse pace, horse speed, horse late pace, %E, and then the last one, the 102, is an overall rating. So, Bob and John ran 115 early, fast, but 93 late, slow. His 102 is a combination of those two. He certainly didn't run fast late. The same goes for Keyed Entry and Lawyer Ron.

Sinister Minister did run fast early and a good speed figure of 110. However, I think he is really up against it on Saturday. First, I am always suspect of horses figures earned at 1 1/8 miles at Kee, period. It doesn't even matter if the track appeared biased that day or not. Second, I don't like horses that fire one big shot before the Derby without a second figure to back it up. His jump was just too big for me. Third, and most important, he doesn't look like the type to rate very well, even leading. He will almost certainly have to go very fast early to lead. With all the pace in here, and there is some very good speed, I think he'll be challenged early and often.

As with any other race, I'll be looking for a horse that offers value. I don't give Sinister Minister that same 10% chance. I realize I'll look foolish if my top "number" horse wins and I don't bet him, but I don't do that lots of times every day. My best guess for value horses will be Point Determined, who is slowly improving and should run very well, and Sweetnorthernsaint, who can run huge if he is able to rate off the pace comfortably.

[PaceAdvantage]

SM is one of the easier tossouts for me......

BTW, Happy Birthday CJ! :jump:

[Fred]

CJ

According to the Kentucky Derby Clocker Report:

Point Determined- Another giving mixed signals. Appeared to struggle albeit against stakes winning stablemate Da Stoops during April 24 work at Santa Anita, rebounded nicely with an extremely sharp drill one week later but has been on the sluggish side during his first two gallops since flying in from the west coast on Tuesday. Still considering him a top contender if at his best.

Sweetnorthernsaint- Originally had him penciled in as a first or second selection, liked but didn't love his one local work but lost a little confidence after a couple of rough looking gallops on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Thinking he might be a bit over the top coming off that fast Illinois Derby win but still a major if he can duplicate his previous performance.

Freddy

[Tee]

From what I have seen from Point Determined, he appears to be struggling all the time. :)

He did the same thing in the work with Da Stoops that he has done in his races that I have seen - he runs in the stretch.

It is my opinion that he doesn't run the turns very well & will only be making his move when they straighten for home. While that's not all bad at Churchill Downs, I think he'll be running for 2nd or 3rd. Someone is bound to get the jump on him.

[Tom]

SM is one of the easier tossouts for me......

BTW, Happy Birthday CJ! :jump:

Careful there, Pa.....you are treading on familiar ground! :rolleyes:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=14662&highlight=emblem#post14662

[Harmonicaslim]

One thing's for sure. CJ's "free numbers" are better than anything I've payed for.

[twindouble]

Knocked out A.P. Warrior, just another horse that can cause trouble for others, he does have early foot but his best races came being rated off the pace but in the Sanfelipe he barly held off Point Determined going mile 1/8. I don't see him going with the pace, ( Nakatani ) so taking this horse back in this big field coming out of post 9 he'll have crowd around him with no racing room, will have to cover to much ground, even if he gets to the rail to save ground he has no late kick to speak of for this distance, just can't see him getting clear trip.

Also knocked out Storm Treasure, this one is over his head, won't be a threat early or late.

Flashy Bull is another that has no options except chacing from post 20, to much quality speed inside to make a dent with no late kick but he'll mess things up for others coming over. Tossed him.

I see Private Vow and Deputy Glitters pretty much the same way as Flashy Bull. Toss.

Seaside Retreat is also over his head another to get lost in the mix. Toss.

I've got Keyed Entry out as a winner but a possible gimmick play.

Ok I know, no big deal tossing these, have to start somewhere.

My gut feeling is, no one is going to out right steal this race, like Smarty Jones. Is there a Bird Stone in here? :cool:

T.D.

[douglasw32]

oops wrong place...moved post...sorry

[twindouble]

oops wrong place...moved post...sorry

Why the wrong place? I thought this forum was for talking horses? Don't tell me I screwed up again? :bang: I told PA to start charging me, if did it again. :D

[Indulto]

I think you may be misreading the figures.

. . . Sinister Minister did run fast early and a good speed figure of 110. However, I think he is really up against it on Saturday. First, I am always suspect of horses figures earned at 1 1/8 miles at Kee, period. It doesn't even matter if the track appeared biased that day or not. Second, I don't like horses that fire one big shot before the Derby without a second figure to back it up. His jump was just too big for me. Third, and most important, he doesn't look like the type to rate very well, even leading. He will almost certainly have to go very fast early to lead. With all the pace in here, and there is some very good speed, I think he'll be challenged early and often.

As with any other race, I'll be looking for a horse that offers value. I don't give Sinister Minister that same 10% chance. I realize I'll look foolish if my top "number" horse wins and I don't bet him, but I don't do that lots of times every day. My best guess for value horses will be Point Determined, who is slowly improving and should run very well, and Sweetnorthernsaint, who can run huge if he is able to rate off the pace comfortably.CJ,
Thanks for responding and for correcting my misunderstanding. I am new to pace figures and am intrigued by your numbers. If I do understand you correctly, the 10 best last race performances followed by morning line odds are:

Sinister Minister_______123/110-116…..12-1
Lawyer Ron___________124/99-110……..4-1
Sweetnorthernsaint__105/113-108…..10-1
Brother Derek_________107/108-107……3-1
Point Determined____100/104-102……12-1
AP Warrior____________105/102-102….15-1
Bob and John__________115/93-102……12-1
Barbaro_______________99/103-101…….4-1
Sharp Humor__________100/102-101….20-1
Keyed Entry____________116/90-101….30-1

What leaps out at me from the above list is that
1) It’s almost impossible to separate AP Warrior and Point Determined, but neither is a match for Brother Derek.
2) If Bob and John is value at 12-1, Keyed Entry is a better value at 30-1.
3) If one likes Barbaro, then Sharp Humor is tremendous value.

My own pick from instinct more than analysis is Barbaro, but I’m starting to agree with CH (and now, Crist) – and now your figures -- that the Sinister one should not be ignored, especially at a price. If I play him I would EX wheel SinMin on top -- x5 with Barb, Derek and Ron; x3 with the other 6 above; x1 for the remaining 10.

I expect my main play will be Barbaro in the TRI over the other 9 and possibly with Jazil and Flashy Bull in the third spot. Other savers might include EXBs with Sweet, Sharp, Keyed, and others. Sure would have liked to have been able to play dime supers!

Good luck.

[toetoe]

Maybe I'm just touchy about knocks on "my" horse, but do we really need some "expert" reporting on gallops? Not workouts, mind you, but ... GALLOPS? I know he can't find a real job, but what service is this providing? Saving the poor public from wagering on a monster that will start at a fat price? Come on, tell us about the no-hopers that are working so well, they now have hope. :ThmbDown:

[twindouble]

I'll continue with my Derby run down here.

I decided to knock out Lawyer Ron as a winner based on what I posted earlier, I made reference last night in the war room to him being like Cigar but purely on respect for the connections doing a great job in placing the horse. He is good enough to use in the gimmicks. Maybe he can get clear and settle in back of the speed in the race, he'll be chasing 7 horses from that post. I don't see him breaking that good here so the run to the first turn will either put him in play or spell trouble, Mckee got our attention as a bug but this is the big leagues and he couldn't make a dent in NY.

We like to look for a closer going mile 1/4 but one the can get clear enough to settle in with a kick on the end, ESP with a race with so much speed and so many. I gave Steppenwolfer a good look, at first I thought maybe he fills the bill but at a closer look it appears he has one move then tends to hang and that move comes to early plus he'll have to navigate around to many horses so I tossed him.

Sharp Humor is a speedy type with some guts going shorter but I don't think he'll rate well in this one and have enough at the end, if he goes all out he'll quit anyway. I'm tossing him as well.


Jazil has one place to go and that's right where he's at, dead last to the first turn saving ground on the rail, he's the only one with a late explosive move, another 1/8 mile and he blows by Bob and John on a sly track. In that race he gobbled up Keyed Entry. Like I said Keyed Entry is going to be tested more in this one. I don't bet heavy on deep closers, to many things can happen, no racing room, having to go to wide on two truns or get that perfect trip up the rail. We've seen it happen and they have the right jock up. It's a wing and a prayer. Heck it will be fun to use that one and see what happens.


I know for some tossing out a Pletcher horse Bluegrass Cat isn't easy, ESP one that appeared to moving forward at first glance, then gets stomped by Sinister Minister. I can only conclude either he's a horse like Lawyer Ron that beat lesser horses or for some reason not known to me he puts in that clunker of a race. I think it was lesser horses looking at what he beat, Deputy Glitters, Flashy Bull, Storm Treasure. He's another that will be chasing the pace. Toss. I won't even use that one in the gimmicks, have to take a stand sometimes but I think I'm safe.

Showing Up could be the sleeper here, lightly raced with 3 for 3 and Tagg Barclay for a trainer. Shows some speed but can rate, he easly put away Like Now a horse that beat Sweetnorthernsaint at mile 1/16. Granted this horse has to improve to get the distance but isn't that what 3yo's do? It's still a tough call but he has the ability to stay out of trouble and that's half the battle in the Derby, more so with 20 entered. I hope before the race comes up, I get it down to 4 or 5 horses, then I'll take a saver with Showing up in the gimmicks.

Cause to Believe, A closing sprinter early on, his wins come in fast pace races, these types will almost surely flatten out going a mile 1/4, some are jumping on him off of one race where he beat Sinister Minister but that was a troubled race for him, hit the rail twice. Now how bad that was I don't know. When you look at Cause's last race he did flatten out going mile 1/8 and he was no competition for Sweetnorthernsaint. Toss. Plus I think he'll have to make more than one move in the race with his running style, horses all around him, good luck.

I'm down to 7 horses, will be back later.


T.D.

[twindouble]

With no suprise to many here I come up with, Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined.


I decided to knock out Bob and John. He'll be chasing as well so I don't think he'll kick home. Little leary tossing him but have to do it.

Sinister Minister would have to wire this race race, I didn't get sucked into Ballamy Road and I won't here, I think Keyed Entry and Sharp Humor will press him. I'll be using him just 3 and 4th in the super.

I'll be using my top 4 in the gimmicks with Lawyer Ron, Bob and John, Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister deep. In this case 4th only in the super.



Now I've got two bombs to fool around with, That's Showing Up and Jazil.

My bust out saver will be keying Showing up and Jazil with my top 4 horses.
tri and super. First second and third.

I think my top 4 look the best but this race anyone can get in trouble and I can't win if the speed holds up, at a mile 1/4 being pressed I doubt it. With Brother Derek coming out of Post 17 and he soundly beats these horses by settling in rating off the pace your looking at something special this year. Wouldn't it be nice?


Good luck

T.D.

[Tom]

I ended up dutching three - Bro Derek, Point Determined, and Lawyer Ron.

I was gonna throw Barabo, or Bilbo, or whatever in, but didn't.

[twindouble]

I ended up dutching three - Bro Derek, Point Determined, and Lawyer Ron.

I was gonna throw Barabo, or Bilbo, or whatever in, but didn't.

I was looking good at the top of the stretch but not to be. The good news is caught a couple good ones on the under card and two at Belmont. My second choice won the Derby. I just read the chart, overall with a 20 horse field I'm not embarrassed about my run down. I cringed a little knocking out Pletcher's horse, Bluegrass Cat and I was looking for a closer but I picked on Jazil over Steppenwolfer. Brother Derek had wide trip plus some bumping around, not surprising but I doubt he would have beat Barbaro today anyway. 201 1/5 not bad.

I'll be at Belmont tomorrow, carryover in the pick 6. Everyone is hyped up over the Derby, maybe that will carryover to tomorrow. I feel like the winter cobwebs are clearing up, I had all twenty horses well placed in my head but it didn't translate in a win. Good exercise though. :)

It would have been nice if someone here took down that tri or super. I know PA had Barbaro as his first choice and there was a few others that pick him on the Derby forum, so we did OK.

T.D.