Non-linear pace

[PMANN1]

I've never been fond of straight pace handicapping for the most part. If I found a good pace horse the price was almost always too low for me to make a profit over time and I could find most of the same contenders quicker using speed and comparing early or late fractions based on the track style. What I have done is used different fractions of pace in my overall handicapping to figure pace shapes and improving form (nothing new there).
Dick Schmidt said he didn't use pace handicapping anymore either because too many fast horses faded at the end (a recent post some where I believe and an experience I'm well aware of when I found out lone speed itself wasn't enough). To get around this a while ago I I started to do something that's helped. I'll use the early pace rating with a late pace rating from a different race and vice versa. It doesn't work every race (nothing does) but I like it because a 10-1 or higher can stand out when it never would have been a solid contender for me before. I don't have any mechanical rules for this but it helps me a lot in my handicapping. Anyone else doing something similar.

[ranchwest]

Well, you're finding the back class that many people are ignoring. That's why you're getting a price.

You're right about dominant pace types. They're heavily bet and sometimes tire, even when you think they won't.

[GR1@HTR]

http://www.horsedata.com/Tjpps3.pdf

[Dick Schmidt]

Pmann,

Glad you found something that works for you.

In your post, you quoted me as saying I don't use pace any more because too many fast horses faded at the end. I never said that and I continue to use pace in every race I look at. I have a vague recollection of saying that pace isn't a good way to do form cycles, as you need a complete horse to win, but pace isn't about early pace, it is about the total race. You could call good pace ratings Total Pace Ratings as a matter of fact.

A pace handicapper looks at ALL the fractions, not just early. Somehow early pace and pace handicapping have gotten combined in the minds of handicappers, and that doesn't work most of the time. Sure, there are a few tracks where early is enough, and also a few where you can take a big third fraction to the bank, but at most tracks, on most days, you need a balance between them.

Dick

[Rick]

Dick,

The point that you're making is a good one. Pace does NOT equal early speed. Although early speed is more important than late speed at most tracks, it's not true that you can ignore the late speed entirely. This is a point that many who are new to the game don't understand at all.

[cj]

A dominant front runner, in my opinion, is one who is superior in a total pace rating, such as Quirin style totals or the like, not the one with the fastest early fractional times. Couldn't agree more with the two above posts.

CJ

[Rick]

pmann1,

What you're finding is the horse that is versatile, who can run either early or late. That's definitely a good way to go. Add some class to that and you've got it made.

[Tom]

Lately, the best pace plays I have found are late paced horses, races where the early speed wilts and non-early types come on.
There was on good early play at the PSA last week - totally dominant Crammer Pace figs, but generally, laterly, I am weeing late pace set up more.
The idea of combining racws was the basis of Randy Guiles method-he used the best E2 and Best LP from each of the last three races - so if horse looked like this in his last three

88 90
78 95
92 80

His rating would be 92 95

This iis uing BRIS or TSN pace figs. Seems incredulous, but it work
more often than not. Cleaned house at Tampa Bay this winter using this. There were other rules, such as, if a horse was rated E it had to be 1 or 2 early and at least 5 late, and if was an EP, it had to be at least a 2-4 or a 4-2. S horses had to be 1 or 2 late....
I think this was the power of the method and it still works well with HTR EV and LP numbers in the summaries.

[rrbauer]

What happens early establishes what can happen later in terms of running styles. If we only had the patience to sit chilly until that once-a-month occasion when an "S" type inherits an early lead!

[JustMissed]

Looks like you may be talking about find a Double-Advantage horse as described by the ALL-WAYS folks, here is what I copied from their website:

1. Double Advantage Horses

Double Advantage horses are horses that have the best Early Pace rating and the best Final Fraction Pace rating of all the horses in the race. These horses can run fast both early and late and seem to be able to overcome any pace match-up and any track pace bias. If the horse is an overlay, you can bet it with confidence as a prime bet. There is no higher probability win/bet in all of racing."

If that's not what you are talking about let me know. If it is, it happens to me all the time, I come up with something new and find out it's been around forever.

Good luck,

JustMissed

[JimL]

Tom, I believe you are talking about the Giles optimal pace model. Could I ask you if you would go back more than three lines to stay with the sme distance structure? S_S R_R

[PMANN1]

I thought a double advantage horse was taking the early and late pace rating from the same race. If not, I now have a new understanding of it. What I'm playing around with is more similar to what Tom is talking about in his post above. I've never heard of Rand Guiles but maybe I should do a little research on him. Can you tell me anything more about him Tom?
Dick, I probably mis-read your post and it was addressing form cycles as you mentioned. I had a copy of the converstion between you and Rick but I'm in a moving process right now and can't find it along with some other stuff. You have some interesting stuff to say and if I ever venture into HSH or something similar I'll look at the concepts such as comparing L2 to L5. Based on the stat under testing services it doesn't look like comparing L2 to L5 with speed ratings alone in relation to the horse and not the field works well. Maybe it's the power rating and/or the way you use it that does well? Everyone sees how Tiger and other Pro's play golf but few can achieve the same results.

[JustMissed]

I believe you are correct about the double advantage horse being determined by E2&LP from the same race. If you are using the highest of different races this would be similiar to my method I have posted here before for route races. I take the average of the highest E1, E2 & LP of the most recent three routes. I use this calculated number to compare my final contenders. It usually works pretty well unless there is a track bias issue or some other knock on the horse.

Some people don't like to average pace fiqures but I don't see the problem if your using it to get an overall sense of how they might run gate to wire. Remember though that I only use this for routes.

Cya,

JustMissed

[Tom]

Originally posted by JimL
Tom, I believe you are talking about the Giles optimal pace model. Could I ask you if you would go back more than three lines to stay with the sme distance structure? S_S R_R


Yeah, I don't have a problem skippng over races that don't apply.
I just try to be careful not to go back to a form cycle that is no longer possible for the horse to run back to. At FL, I see a lot of horses that were running good at NYRA a year ago-I won't use those NYRA lines at FL. But if you stay reasonable recent, you should be ok.
On the other hand, if you have horse making it's third start off
and dropping to it's right class today, you might want ot use a good race from a while ago. Just a matter of odds-if the horse is 9-5, I stay real current, if it is 91, I get real loose and foregiving.

[Tom]

Randy Guiles website is no more.
E-mail me and I will give you some things I downloaded before it went south - several neat articles.

[GameTheory]

Or try:


http://www.archive.org


That's the internet "wayback" machine. You can look up www.randygiles.com from there and find most of his articles intact (a few images are missing). Use the most recent "grab", sometime from late last year I think...

[PMANN1]

Tom,
I've having trouble setting up DSL and a new e-mail but I'll let you know when I get it up. I'd be interested in reading some of his material. I'll look at Game Theory's link first. I have some problems with Explorer and MSN. 3 nights with their help desk hasn't been much fun.
Do you incorporate speed or running styles when you use pace from different races? I see you mentioned HTR, do you use that in conjunticion with pace from different races? As this is fairly new to me I'm still trying to figure out the best way to use it, but it is helping and has been slightly profitable. Do you do the best 2 of last 3 fractions and look at top 3-4 for contenders or longshots? Have you been able to make a profit off this alone or in conjunction with your regular handicapping? Lot of questions so feel free to answer in any way..
I use speed with the non-linear pace right now. It makes a weaker horse a stronger bet.