View Full Version : Saratoga Race six
Sorta taking a Backwards Handicapp approach to picking a horse here. I'm going to bet the 7 Sunshine Rondevu... Not for what he's done.. although I think I see an edge there.. But... This horse appears to me like a horse that would benefit from the hood... The fact they are'nt trying it just makes me curious...
He's broke well in both his races... In the last he was 5th by 15... But the first three were 11 clear and the horse mighta lost interest... Both races were pretty quick splits.. 22.3 and 45.4 .. and 22 and 46.1... he's been worked three times since last.. and I think that shows they see talent here... and I see some raw talent here too.. I think he'll break better from this post and get a better trip for his style from the 7 hole.. I like the ML of 12-1 on the horse.. and I'm hunching he gets a lil ignored and with No scratches He may be 15-1 to 18-1...
Western Punch is the ML Fav... Ferraro is 22% in MDSWPT.. and its his and the Jocks first mount at the meet... has three Gate Heats that are fair.. I'm not sold he's a First ask winner...
Bailey's... exchange Bay looks live...and has early foot... I smell Money Burner though.
I am betting the 7 horse on the one simple fact that she closed 5 lengths in a furlong and a Half.. to finish 6 back to a field that was four clear in her Debut.... I look at alot of races... and I just see something here.. Hard to fully explain
Gonna Bet the 7.... WP for 5 bucks... Gonna key him in a couple of pick 4 tiks.. and $4.00 dollar doubles.... 7/2,3,6
22 bucks and 8 more on the pick 4 tickets.. Puts me invested for 30 bucks on a hunch play with a lil substance...
Boris
08-08-2002, 12:52 PM
Can’t endorse your pick, but I’ll give you my take and wish you luck. I do think Sunshine will appreciate Gryder’s return, but just doesn’t look fast enough to get out there and out there is the place to be. Bailey’s horse would have been in a photo in her last if it were the 6th race instead of the 3rd on 7/11. Two ticks faster final time and beaten by 1.75L. The big question is will anyone go out front with her and wear her down for a presser. Several trainers with lofty FTS percentages so she may again be beatable at low odds. I find it interesting that Guidry comes in for his only listed ride of the day to mount the #1 Raffie’s Storm. Don’t catch me betting many debut horses out of the one hole, but will watch on the track in the pre-race. #2 Beautiful America will be my key if I try to beat Bailey’s horse here. Nice gate breeze for a trainer with positive ROI for FTS. Post is a plus as she should get the jump on the #1 based on works. Will she last 6F? Dunno, but that’s why she will be a price. They could have put one more work in her, so maybe she was tight enough and they didn’t want her to unwind. #3 Western Punch is not the ML fav. I show her at ML 10-1, which is very bettable at those odds. My guess is she will be closer to 4-1. Gotta believe they could have found a race at Finger Lakes, so there must be some reason she shows up here. #9 Special Girl gets a major jockey upgrade to Chavez for 1 out of 1 trainer Callejas and sports a dandy breeze over the main track. This one has the best chance at wearing down Exchange Bay as both will be gunning to get the rail sweet spot IMO. I’m hoping SG softens up EB and Santos stays close enough and has enough to catch them at the end. Will key the 2 to the 3,8,9 in the exotics and should get 8-1+ on the 2 in the win spot. Basically betting Bailey punts the race which does pay well when it happens, but don’t happen often.
Now for those who don’t like stories, I like Minamala in the 5th and Miss Indiana in the 9th.
Good Luck
GR1@HTR
08-08-2002, 01:43 PM
My home grown odds line is listed to the far right of each line. Bet anything going off at odds greater than listed.
03-SAR Thursday Aug 08, 2002 6.0 Dirt 2yF M50 $22500 Level 092 Vi= 37 QT3= 19 PL-5 03-SAR
(Up To $4,365 NYSBFOA) For Maiden Fillies Two Years Old. Weight 118 lbs. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. (Re
gistered New York Breds allowed 3 lbs.).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pn PP Horse MLO Ag Ped-St Ch Lay Wks Jockey------rtg Trainer-----rtg Qp RS-Ev-Lv C90 K--rtg Prb Vbet Pn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 01 Tap Out 6/1 2f 280 NY bo 010 bc Arroyo, Jr 252 Aquilino J 205 +6 *F 1 4 044 3* 101$ 14% 6.3 |2
3 02 Clear Pouch 5/1 2f 376 KY L1 109 dDC #Prado Edga 321* McPeek Ken 297 +1 P 3 1 2* 104$ 18% 4.4 |3 7-2
4 03 Defendant *8/5 2f 384 NY 028 F Velazquez 350* Barbara Ro 222 +7 E 4 2 045* 1* 109 *24% 3.2 |4 9-2
1A 04 Keptherhuntingh 20/1 2f 344 FL 020 dFc Whittaker 050 Candlin Jo 050 +1 S 5 3 008 7 076 05% 17.4 |1A
5 05 Cancel the Suit 6/1 2f 304 KY L1 FTS Carrero Vi 232 Zito Nicho 275 6 098 11% 8.5 |5
6 06 Sammy Moonammy 6/1 2f 365 FL bo 034 bDD Santos Jos 279 Contessa G 258 +6 E 2 5 038 5 100 12% 7.4 |6 7-2
7 07 Ziarita 3/1 2f 350 KY FTS CCC Bailey Jer 416* Badgett, J 204 4 100 16% 5.1 |7 9-2
K-rating Picks 4-3-2 Price Play 3
04-SAR Thursday Aug 08, 2002 9.0 Dirt 3up C50 $38000 Level 106 Vi= 25 QT3= 20 PL-5 04-SAR
(Up To $7,372 NYSBFOA) For Three Year Olds And Upward. Three Year Olds 119 lbs.; Older 124 lbs. Non-
winners of two races at a mile or over since June 10 allowed, 1 lbs. Such a race since then, 3 lbs.
CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, for each $5,000 to $40,000 2 lbs. (Races where entered for $35,000 or less n
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pn PP Horse MLO Ag Ped-St Ch Lay Wks Jockey------rtg Trainer-----rtg Qp RS-Ev-Lv C90 K--rtg Prb Vbet Pn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 01 Special Terms 8/1 5h *514 KY 013 #Carrero Vi 232 Bazeos Pet 310 +4 S 2 6 094* 2* 103$ 18% 4.7 |1 5-2
2 02 Kentucky Squall 9/2 4c *701 KY 034 C #Day Pat 353* Romans Dal 309 +2 S 6 5 077 7 095 14% 6.2 |2
3 03 Mike's Thunder 7/2 5h *483 KY 043 DB Migliore R 312** Moschera G 221 +6 E 3 3 090 1* 104 *19% 4.2 |3 7-1
4 04 Buddha's Deligh 5/1 7g 394 CA 043 cDc Luzzi Mich 238 Levine Bru 309 +0 S 5 2 082 4 101 13% 6.6 |4 5-1
5 05 Borntoberegal 4/1 5h *498 KY 069 B #Gryder Aar 236 Hushion Mi 330 +8 E 4 4 067 6 096 11% 8.4 |5 6-1
6 06 Storm Wreck 8/1 7g 418 KY 046 CFB Toscano Pa 148 Matties Gr 245 +2 S 1 7 086 3* 101$ 13% 6.6 |6 7-1
7 07 Badger Gold *3/1 6g *452 KY 077 BF #Prado Edga 321** Parisella 162 +6 E 7 1 079 5 097 12% 7.2 |7
K-rating Picks 3-1-6 Price Play 6
05-SAR Thursday Aug 08, 2002 9.5 Turf 3uF MSW $46000 Level 098 Vi= 26 QT3= 13 PL-5 05-SAR
MELLON TURF. (Up To $8,924 NYSBFOA) For Maiden Fillies and Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Y
ear Olds 118 lbs.; Older 122 lbs. (Registered New York Breds allowed 3 lbs.).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pn PP Horse MLO Ag Ped-St Ch Lay Wks Jockey------rtg Trainer-----rtg Qp RS-Ev-Lv C90 K--rtg Prb Vbet Pn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 01 Sportive Spirit 20/1 3f 226 FL 018 CB Whittaker 050 Suttle Ric 120 +6 E 5 4 068 8 078 05% 18.8 |1
2 02 Ziada *5/2 3f 251 CA 179 DCB #Bailey Jer 416* Mott Willi 381** +1 P 1 9 4 098 *18% 4.5 |2 9-2
3 03 Aztec Pearl 7/2 3f *489 KY 028 cb Prado Edga 321* McGaughey, 332* +2 P 6 1 075* 1* 109 18% 4.6 |3 7-2
4 04 Shake'em On Dow 6/1 3f 438 KY 025 CC Chavez Jor 306* Dutrow, Jr 420** +3 P 7 2 073 2* 106$ 17% 4.7 |4 9-2
5 05 Minamala (IRE) 10/1 3f 238 IR 013 BF Perret Cra 294 Simon Char 324 +1 S 8 3 070 3* 100 11% 8.2 |5 9-2
6 06 Kids Today 15/1 3f 230 KY 028 DB #Davis Robb 242 Sciacca Ga 124 +4 P 2 7 067 7 078 06% 15.6 |6
7 07 Candy Verse 3/1 3f *727 KY 018 CD Castellano 291 DiMauro St 236 +0 S 9 6 070 5 097 11% 8.2 |7
8 08 More Ribbons 6/1 3f *460 KY 018 B #Santos Jos 279 Reinstedle 286 +1 P 3 8 065 6 091 08% 11.9 |8
9 09 Blackstone Cloc 20/1 4f 327 FL 043 CBD #Arroyo, Jr 252 Tesher How 207 +2 S 4 5 066 9 076 06% 15.6 |9
K-rating Picks 3-4-5 Price Play 4
GR1@HTR
08-08-2002, 01:44 PM
06-SAR Thursday Aug 08, 2002 6.0 Dirt 2yF MSWs $41000 Level 092 Vi= 36 QT3= 8 PL-5 06-SAR
For Maiden Fillies Two Years Old, foaled in New York State and approved by the New York State-Bred R
egistry. Weight 118 lbs.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pn PP Horse MLO Ag Ped-St Ch Lay Wks Jockey------rtg Trainer-----rtg Qp RS-Ev-Lv C90 K--rtg Prb Vbet Pn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 01 Raffie's Storm 12/1 2f 320 NY FTS CD Guidry Mar 273 Galluscio 260 6 090 08% 11.0 |1
2 02 Beautiful Ameri 12/1 2f *482 NY FTS Cf Santos Jos 279 Hernandez 210 7 089 07% 12.5 |2 6-1
3 03 Western Punch 10/1 2f 351 NY L1 FTS DBC Grabowski 358* Ferraro M. 354* 5 095 13% 6.8 |3 5-1
4 04 Grantmeatrophy 6/1 2f 290 NY FTS Bridgmohan 244 Ferraro Ja 177 4 096 08% 11.8 |4
5 05 Puma's Pride 12/1 2f *477 NY FTS DDF Castellano 291 DeStasio R 109 9 087 06% 14.7 |5
6 06 Belle Angel 5/2 2f 277 NY FTS D Prado Edga 321* Dutrow, Jr 415** 2* 105 16% 5.3 |6 3-1
7 07 Sunshine Rondev 12/1 2f 312 NY 028 DFD #Gryder Aar 224 Contessa G 247 +1 R 2 2 041 3* 096$ 10% 8.7 |7
8 08 Exchange Bay *8/5 2f 417 NY 028 DD Bailey Jer 416* Alexander 318 +6 *E 1 1 055* 1* 112 *22% 3.5 |8 3-1
9 09 Special Girl 15/1 2f 417 NY 028 Bc #Chavez Jor 306* Callejas A 143 +1 S 3 3 015 8 089 09% 10.6 |9
K-rating Picks 8-6-7 Price Play 7
07-SAR Thursday Aug 08, 2002 8.5 Turf 3uF NW1s $44000 Level 100 Vi= 30 QT3= 21 PL-5 07-SAR
INNER TURF. For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old And Upward, foaled in New York State and approved
by the New York State-Bred Registry Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Star
ter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races. Three Year Olds118 lbs.; Older 122 lbs. Non-winners of $25,00
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pn PP Horse MLO Ag Ped-St Ch Lay Wks Jockey------rtg Trainer-----rtg Qp RS-Ev-Lv C90 K--rtg Prb Vbet Pn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 01 Blow the Blues 8/1 4f 362 NY 050 aBC Espinoza J 192 Tagg Barcl 282 +2 S 6 2 071 4 100 10% 9.0 |1 5-1
2 02 Lady Groush 8/1 4f 320 NY 036 ADC Prado Edga 330** Bond H. Ja 332* +0 R 7 3 067 6 095 11% 8.3 |2
3 03 Totally Selfish 10/1 3f 268 NY 036 c Carrero Vi 232 Hernandez 191 +8 *F 1 7 064 7 083 10% 9.2 |3
4 04 Easter Liturgy 6/1 3f 206 NY 036 C #Velazquez 350* Candlin Jo 050 +7 P 4 5 077* 5 099 13% 7.0 |4 9-2
5 05 Soon Soon 12/1 3f 036 NY 021 Castellano 301** Ronen Assa 120 +6 E 2 8 057 8 079 07% 14.2 |5
6 06 Private Port 3/1 3f 442 NY 007 F Carr Denni 243 Martin Car 265 +3 P 5 4 072 2* 102 17% 5.0 |6
7 07 Perfect Energy 4/1 3f 430 NY 042 DDB Chavez Jor 356** Sciacca Ga 134 +5 E 8 1 068 3* 101 13% 6.6 |7 3-1
8 08 Sultress of Swi *5/2 4f 272 NY 036 dCA #Bailey Jer 416* Contessa G 240 +4 E 3 6 071 1* 102 *21% 3.9 |8 9-2
K-rating Picks 8-6-7
08-SAR Thursday Aug 08, 2002 6.0 Dirt 3uF NW1 $47000 Level 102 Vi= 31 QT3= 19 PL-5 08-SAR
(Up To $9,118 NYSBFOA) For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Rac
es. Three Year Olds 119 lbs.; Older 123 lbs. Non-winners of a race since June 29 allowed, 2 lbs. (Ra
ces where entered for $50,000 or less not considered inallowances). (Registered New York Breds allow
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pn PP Horse MLO Ag Ped-St Ch Lay Wks Jockey------rtg Trainer-----rtg Qp RS-Ev-Lv C90 K--rtg Prb Vbet Pn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 01 Sizzling Dish 6/1 3f 274 KY 039 CBC #Bailey Jer 416* Lukas D. W 303 +3 E 7 8 075 3* 099 11% 8.0 |1 7-1
2 02 Wild Punch 6/1 3f *582 VA 025 CA Davis Robb 254 Turner, Jr 278 +3 P 4 4 082 2* 105 12% 7.1 |2 7-2
3 03 Colette 6/1 3f *484 KY 039 CFB Carrero Vi 282 Jerkens Ja 387** +6 E 5 9 071 4 095 09% 10.7 |3 7-1
4 04 Spirit and Soul 5/1 3f 436 KY 046 B #Bridgmohan 244 Ritvo Timo 236 +3 S 6 9 007 7 087 06% 15.7 |4
5 05 Shareholder Vot 15/1 3f *598 MD 229 BCC #Prado Edga 321* Violette, 225 +1 P 9 3 9 078 06% 16.0 |5
6 06 Hold Your Place 12/1 4f *462 FL 025 BBc #Rojas Raul 136 Jerkens H. 306 +6 E 3 9 065 6 089 06% 16.4 |6
7 07 Mild Maggie 9/2 3f *519 KY 249 FDB #Velazquez 400** Pletcher T 363** +6 P 9 6 5 091 11% 7.8 |7
8 08 Purloin 20/1 3f *478 KY 042 CCF Castellano 291 Kimmel Joh 343* +2 S 9 1 080 9 082 07% 13.2 |8 5-1
9 09 Partying 12/1 3f 411 FL 046 BD #Chavez Jor 306* Aro Michae 245 +7 *E 2 9 060 9 085 06% 17.1 |9
10 10 Boozin' Susan *4/1 3f *516 KY 034 A #Santos Jos 279 Rice Linda 273 +4 P 1 7 087* 1* 107 *15% 5.8 |10 3-1
11 11 Argentina 12/1 3f *640 KY 277 CCA #Migliore R 279 McLaughlin 419** +5 P 8 5 8 085 08% 11.2 |11
12 12 Rebelano 20/1 3f *484 FL 020 b #Espinoza J 186 Picou Jame 095 +0 R 9 2 080 9 073 04% 26.2 |12
K-rating Picks 10-2-1
09-SAR Thursday Aug 08, 2002 6.0 Dirt 3yF C25 $25000 Level 097 Vi= 22 QT3= 14 PL-5 09-SAR
For Fillies Three Years Old. Weight 122 lbs. Non-winners of two races since June 25 allowed, 2 lbs.
A race since then, 4 lbs. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. (Races where entered for $20,000 or less not consi
dered). (Registered New York Breds allowed 3 lbs.).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pn PP Horse MLO Ag Ped-St Ch Lay Wks Jockey------rtg Trainer-----rtg Qp RS-Ev-Lv C90 K--rtg Prb Vbet Pn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 01 I Will Survive 6/1 3f *506 KY 032 A #Day Pat 378** Romans Dal 309 +3 P 1 7 044 4 098$ 15% 5.7 |2 6-1
3 02 Robin's Fling 15/1 3f 406 PA 041 B #Chavez Jor 306* DiMauro St 218 +3 P 8 2 060 8 083 08% 10.9 |3
4 03 Victory Gulch 20/1 3f *456 KY bx 021 BC Castillo, 166 Gyarmati L 163 +2 P 9 3 057 9 072 05% 20.9 |4
5 04 Topspin Lob 10/1 3f 338 KY 028 #Bridgmohan 269 Barbara Ro 227 +1 P 6 8 059 7 089 08% 11.6 |5
6 05 Miss Indiana *3/1 3f 434 IN 032 FC Meche Donn 340** Asmussen S 368* +7 *E 2 9 026 1* 101 *18% 4.5 |6 5-2
7 06 Chasing Lightni 15/1 3f *472 KY 014 AF #Rojas Raul 148 Gullo Gary 207 +1 S 5 4 067* 6 092 10% 9.0 |7 5-1
1A 07 Queen of Sarato 6/1 3f 355 NY 034 f Prado Edga 338** Parisella 162 +3 S 4 1 050 5 092 09% 10.7 |1A
9 08 Stephanie's Ang 4/1 3f 444 NY 067 DF Castellano 316** Dutrow, Jr 410* +3 P 7 5 055 3* 099 15% 5.9 |9 4-1
10 09 Don't Worry 6/1 3f *600 NY 021 DF Carrero Vi 232 Hushion Mi 307 +4 P 3 6 064 2* 100 13% 6.8 |10
K-rating Picks 6-10-9 Price Play 2
#2 Beautiful America will be my key if I try to beat Bailey’s horse here. Nice gate breeze for a trainer with positive ROI for FTS. Post is a plus as she should get the jump on the #1 based on works. Will she last 6F? Dunno, but that’s why she will be a price. They could have put one more work in her, so maybe she was tight enough and they didn’t want her to unwind.
Really nice Job.. I enjoyed the way you broke down the race.... Excellent vision "seeing" into the race...
You were correct about my Pick... she did run a distant 4th and I expect when she catchs a Field a notch or two below these .. she'll get her win.. and probably at a nice price if they keep her in MDSWPT.. as I expect they will
vBulletin® v3.8.9, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.