The field is set

[theyreatthepost]

# Horse ML Trainer Jockey

1 Jazil 30-1 Kiaran McLaughlin Fernando Jara

2 Steppenwolfer 30-1 Daniel Peitz Robby Albarado

3 Keyed Entry 30-1 Todd Pletcher Patrick Valenzuela

4 Sinister Minister 12-1 Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez

5 Point Determined 12-1 Bob Baffert Rafael Bejarano

6 Showing Up 20-1 Barclay Tagg Cornelio Velasquez

7 Bob and John 12-1 Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez

8 Barbaro 4-1 Michael Matz Edgar Prado

9 Sharp Humor 20-1 Dale Romans Mark Guidry

10 A.P. Warrior 15-1 John Shirreffs Corey Nakatani

11 Sweetnorthernsaint 10-1 Michael Trombetta Kent Desormeaux

12 Private Vow 50-1 Steve Asmussen Shaun Bridgmohan

13 Bluegrass Cat 30-1 Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez

14 Deputy Glitters 50-1 Tom Albertrani Jose Lezcano

15 Seaside Retreat 50-1 Mark Casse Patrick Husbands

16 Cause to Believe 50-1 Jerry Hollendorfer Russell Baze

17 Lawyer Ron 4-1 Bob Holthus John McKee

18 Brother Derek 3-1 Dan Hendricks Alex Solis

19 Storm Treasure 50-1 Steve Asmussen David Flores

20 Flashy Bull 50-1 Kiaran McLaughlin Mike Smith

[LisaMcNear]

I'm curious about the draw order and resulting post position selection by Sweetnorthensaint.

* AP Warrior was first and took one of the middle positions [pp10]
* Sweetnorthensaint had a draw order of 13, yet he got the other middle position [pp11]

Why would the other 11 horses in between go much higher or lower, even though they could have selected the middle slot? (i.e. Steppenwolfer picked [pp2] and Deputy Glitters picked [pp14] :confused:

[cj]

Steppenwolfer is a deep closer, so being inside will help him save ground without much trouble. Closers on the outside often have a tough time getting inside before the turn, just like some frontrunners do.


Deputy Glitter's connections probably chose 14 since it is the last stall in the main gate. The 14 and 15 posts get some extra room due to the wheels on the two starting gates creating a gap between the two posts.

[GMB@BP]

Steppenwolfer is a deep closer, so being inside will help him save ground without much trouble. Closers on the outside often have a tough time getting inside before the turn, just like some frontrunners do.


Deputy Glitter's connections probably chose 14 since it is the last stall in the main gate. The 14 and 15 posts get some extra room due to the wheels on the two starting gates creating a gap between the two posts.

what is that 3 furlongs to get position from the outside.....the only types I worry about are a faster EP horse like brother derek, he could easily get hung out there.

[classhandicapper]

Maybe the rail will be bad like last year. That would throw a monkey wrench into the PP draw.

[Lasix1]

what is that 3 furlongs to get position from the outside.....the only types I worry about are a faster EP horse like brother derek, he could easily get hung out there.
No one seems afraid of the outside posts anymore. Perhaps it is because the data bear out the contention that the outside posts win about as much as anywhere else. Moreover, going back to 1995, if you look at the winners by post position, you will see that the outside posts have been very kind, (and perhaps even advantageous) to all kinds of running styles. Given these data, the chances of Lawyer Ron (17), Brother Derek (18), Storm Treasure (19) and Flashy Bull (20) would seem to be compromised, but the rest--even if they are in the auxiliary gate--present no problem.

1995: pp 16 Thunder Gulch
1996: pp. 15 Grindstone
1997: pp. 5 Silver Charm
1998: pp. 3 Real Quiet
1999: pp. 16 Charismatic
2000: pp. 15 Fusaichi Pegasus
2001: pp. 16 Monarchos
2002: pp. 5 War Emblem
2003: pp. 5 Funny Cide
2004: pp. 13 Smarty Jones
2005: pp. 10 Giacomo