Software Readouts / Derby

[shanta]

here are Derby readouts from "The Master Handicapper" software. All lines entered are Grade 1 and Grade 2 Winners and placers only in each horses last 2 races showing.

Here are the program oddslines.

MPR= Overall odds line similar to total Energy or Average pace.

PPR= Early pace oddsline if you believe the race favors Early runners

LFR= Late pace odds line if you believe the race favors late horses

All others are welcome to post up. I will post my Sartin readouts when the file becomes available

best of luck to everyone on Derby Day!

Richie

[Lasix1]

here are Derby readouts from "The Master Handicapper" software. All lines entered are Grade 1 and Grade 2 Winners and placers only in each horses last 2 races showing.

Here are the program oddslines.

MPR= Overall odds line similar to total Energy or Average pace.

PPR= Early pace oddsline if you believe the race favors Early runners

LFR= Late pace odds line if you believe the race favors late horses

All others are welcome to post up. I will post my Sartin readouts when the file becomes available

best of luck to everyone on Derby Day!

Richie
At last, some really useful decision-oriented information. I'm anxious to see the results of other program read-outs as well. Thanks for getting the ball rolling. :)

[andicap]

The top three on your LPR and MPR lines are three of the four Davidowitz touts as "best value" in today's Simulcast Weekly.

The fourth was Barbaro.

Where are you watching the race, Richie?

[shanta]

The top three on your LPR and MPR lines are three of the four Davidowitz touts as "best value" in today's Simulcast Weekly.

The fourth was Barbaro.

Where are you watching the race, Richie?


Hey Andi,
Binder and I might be hooking up at the Meadowlands. I am gonna talk to him tonite. If not will be watching it right here with a big plate of Eggplant and Raviolis. :)

Are you heading anyplace to watch or staying in Andi?
Richie

[how2020]

Live and Die with the old Dinosaur

Top Picks- Has 1st- Showing Up tie with Brother Derek

3rd-Lawyer Ron over Barbaro in 2 horse Isolation

[kenwoodallpromos]

I may be wrong about this, but I do see Sacred Light on your late list?

[shanta]

I may be wrong about this, but I do see Sacred Light on your late list?

Yes that's him. I also see he is not in the race. here is updated shot with him out. Thanx Ken

Rich

[Lasix1]

Here's the read-outs and odds line for Charles Carroll's Speed Handicapper 5.0. I used the best speed figure in a Derby Prep Race at 8.5F or longer. (Sorry, I don't know how to do those sexy screen shots):

Odds PN Horse Carroll Speed Figure

7-1 4 Sinister Minister 949
7-1 9 Sharp Humor 947
7-1 8 Barbaro 947
8-1 18 Brother Derek 943
9-1 5 Point Determined 938
10-1 10 A.P. Warrior 936
10-1 20 Flashy Bull 934
11-1 19 Storm Treasure 933
12-1 11 Sweetnorthernsaint 926
50-1 13 Bluegrass Cat 922
________________________
All the Rest 99-1

His figures are final time numbers with what he calls a track constant built in that adjusts for track differences in gate placement, run-up, etc. They often put you onto horses that other speed figures miss since they are calculated so differently.

Good luck to all my friends on the board……..

[shanta]

Here's the read-outs and odds line for Charles Carroll's Speed Handicapper 5.0. I used the best speed figure in a Derby Prep Race at 8.5F or longer. (Sorry, I don't know how to do those sexy screen shots):

Odds PN Horse Carroll Speed Figure

7-1 4 Sinister Minister 949
7-1 9 Sharp Humor 947
7-1 8 Barbaro 947
8-1 18 Brother Derek 943
9-1 5 Point Determined 938
10-1 10 A.P. Warrior 936
10-1 20 Flashy Bull 934
11-1 19 Storm Treasure 933
12-1 11 Sweetnorthernsaint 926
50-1 13 Bluegrass Cat 922
________________________
All the Rest 99-1

His figures are final time numbers with what he calls a track constant built in that adjusts for track differences in gate placement, run-up, etc. They often put you onto horses that other speed figures miss since they are calculated so differently.

Good luck to all my friends on the board……..


Hey Lasix,

if u want to take screen shots go here and download this FREE helper
http://www.wisdom-soft.com/products/screenhunter_free.htm

It will install itself- on the "to" tab on top set the file type to "GIF" and check the "clipboard" and "file" boxes. thats it! u are good to go man.

hope this helps and best of luck tomorrow.

Richie :)

[JustRalph]

or you could just hit "print screen" on the keyboard. it sends the screenshot to the clipboard. Paste it right into any "windows compliant program" including Office apps etc. Or paste it into any graphics app to edit and then insert into docs etc.......kind of like the attachment below

[Red Knave]

or you could just hit "print screen" on the keyboard. it sends the screenshot to the clipboard. Paste it right into any "windows compliant program" including Office apps etc. Or paste it into any graphics app to edit and then insert into docs etc.......kind of like the attachment belowRalph - I, for one, am glad you didn't go with the nose-picker shot. ;) :eek:

[kitts]

I will try and paste in the "automatic" handicapping of All-In-One V6:

ALL-IN-ONE V6
05/06/06 Race #10 CD 1 1/4 Miles Dirt Fast
Post: 6:04PM (03:04 PM) 20 entries
STK G1 Open Age: 3 YO, No Sex Restrictions
No Model Available No E/P/S available No WMF No PCP
Race Type : Orderly (DA)

=================================BETTING LINE==================================
Fair Bet WP WPS ML DSLR Comments
SC Horse name Odds Odds Odds Odds Odds
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Sinister Minister 12/1 21 broke in air
18 Brother Derek 3/1 28 inside, ridden out
8 Barbaro 4/1 35 bumped st, long drive
6 Showing Up 20/1 14 bmp start,dift in,drvg
11 Sweetnorthernsaint 10/1 28 stp slw,drivng off ins
9 Sharp Humor 20/1 35 rail trip, gamely
17 Lawyer Ron 4/1 21 acceleratd early,rated
5 Point Determined 12/1 28 stalked pace,2nd best
13 Bluegrass Cat 30/1 21 long drive, edged clr
10 A. P. Warrior 15/1 28 stalked,no late bid
7 Bob and John 12/1 28 determined outside
3 Keyed Entry 30/1 28 game finish outside
2 Steppenwolfer 30/1 21 trafic 3/8,steady gain
1 Jazil 30/1 28 coming fast outside
20 Flashy Bull 50/1 35 Elimination
19 Storm Treasure 50/1 21 Elimination
16 Cause to Believe 50/1 28 Elimination
15 Seaside Retreat 50/1 21 Elimination
14 Deputy Glitters 50/1 28 Elimination
12 Private Vow 50/1 21 Elimination

[Tom]

I tried to line it up for you, but I can't get the [code] [\code] commands to work anymore....have they changed?

Kitts, what is the number after the ML?

[Red Knave]

Kitts, what is the number after the ML?Tom, looks like days since last race?

[PaceAdvantage]

I tried to line it up for you, but I can't get the [code] [\code] commands to work anymore....have they changed?

Kitts, what is the number after the ML?

One tip when using the tool is to make sure your font is set to Courier New....that might help...

[shanta]

I entered every grade 1 and grade 2 win and place lines for the horses in their last 2 races. I have been able to reduce this field to 4.

When I have a race where after reducing to 4 ALL horses have a balance of 5 the race is completely wide open and I treat all the horses as equal regardless of individual corrolaries. Balance is a readout unique to this software and it does ok.

So I am going to toss Brother Derek for the win. 3/1 ml. Fugghedabout it. If he wins he wins. I am going to bet 2 horses to win and they will be the 2 highest odds horses at 5 minutes to post among the remaining 3 horses:

Point Determined
Sweetnorthernsaint
AP Warrior

am going strictly with PRICE. The attached matchup screen shows Sweetsaint losing CONSIDERABLE ground from 1c to 2c in this race matchup. For him to win he is gonna have to change his style and run the race of his life.

here are 2 screen shots

bl/bl
Matchup

good luck to all
Richie :)

[shanta]

here is the matchup screen

[andicap]

Shanta,

You still headed to Jersey tomorrow? Going to the zoo with my family and then headed home to watch the Churcill card. -- I've settled on Barbero and Point Determined unless there's some weird bias tomorrow. But I'm not sure there's much value on Barbero in the win pool.

His energy figures suggest he can relax mid-pack until the front-runners collapse.

[46zilzal]

VERY few winners who were not dominant in every category, win off five lifetime starts (actually only a couple on dirt for this Barbaro character)

[RXB]

46, who are your top horses? Assume a relatively normal CD track.

[Lasix1]

The rankings for Derby horses on BRIS Prime Power are:

1-Lawyer Ron 155.9
2-Keyed Entry 154.6
3-Sweetnorthernsaint 153.9
4-Barbaro 153.2
5-Bob and John 153.3
6-Sinister Minister 152.1
7-Bluegrass Cat 151.3
8-Brother Derek 150.1
9-Cause to Believe 147.7
10-Private Vow 147.1
11-Showing Up 146.0
12-Sharp Humor 145.6
13-Steppenwolfer 144.5
14-Deputy Glitters 142.9
15-Point Determined 142.4
16-Flashy Bull 141.9
17-A.P. Warrior 140.6
18-Storm Treasure 140.4
19-Jazil 140.0
20-Seaside Retreat 137.7

Several surprises jump off the rankings such as the relatively high ranking for such longshots as Keyed Entry and Bluegrass Cat, the number one ranking for Lawyer Ron in spite of his modest speed figures, and the relatively low rankings for M/L favorite Bro. Derek, the highly-touted A.P. Warrior and Point Determined.

I don't have a clue how this proprietary formula is constructed or whether it works in the derby, but I find it useful in contender selection on a day-to-day basis.

Thanks to Ritchie and others for the screenshot advise, and again, best of luck to all of you tomorrow!

[FortuneHunter]

Attached is the Worksheet from Handicappers DataMine.
You will need Acrobat Reader to view it.

Based on the Brisnet Figs which we use .....

SWEETNORTHERNSAINT fastest of all

KEYED ENTRY strong early pace

Any questions, please ask

Best Regards, FortuneHunter

[46zilzal]

46, who are your top horses? Assume a relatively normal CD track.
Sweetnorthernsaint (although he will be a long way back)
Brother, Point Determined, but could make a case for A.P. Warrior as well

[Vegas711]

Normally I would make all my decisions for who I like to win a race by computer readout results, but this is the Kentucky derby my advice, throw out every stat, figure etc. find the horse with the best story, almost died i.e. sunday silence, the old owner( 92 year old frances genter, unbridled) after this race is over You will hear some great story about the winner.

If I am wrong and I cost you a winner go ahead and rip me a new one.

[michiken]

The photo below shows rankings for ability time (AT) and Counter Energy (CE) using bris pace figs E1, E2 and speed.

The list is sorted by Ability Time descending.

Horses that did not have a CE ranking of 90 have been eliminated - they should not get the distance.

Working from the top down, looks like SNS (CE=107) and Deputy Glitters (CE=99) could be the late closers having to run down Showing Up, Keyed Entry, Brother Derek and Barbaro.

[wolsons]

Here's the output from POL V6.0 - very small model, handle with care...weak top pick is Showing Up with Bluegrass Cat second. As I posted elsewhere, I'm personally going with Sinister Minister (sorry PA!), for what its worth. Good luck to everyone! :ThmbUp:

Race 10
KyDerby-G1 - 1 1/4 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES. KENTUCKY DERBY PRESENTED BY YUM! BRANDS PURSE $2000000 (20) FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE
Horse Con OddsL
1 30/1 JAZI 1.0 20.17
2 30/1 STEP 1.0 20.17
3 30/1 KEYE 0.0 422.40
4 12/1 SINI 0.4 47.11
5 12/1 POIN 1.0 20.17
6 20/1 SHOW 3.7 4.69
7 12/1 BOB 0.4 50.63
8 4/1 BARB 1.0 20.17
9 20/1 SHAR 1.0 20.17
10 15/1 A. P 1.0 20.17
11 10/1 SWEE 0.0 2116.00
12 50/1 PRIV 0.7 27.23
13 30/1 BLUE 2.3 8.13
14 50/1 DEPU 1.0 20.17
15 50/1 SEAS 1.2 16.21
16 50/1 CAUS 1.0 20.17
17 4/1 LAWY 1.4 14.12
18 3/1 BROT 0.8 24.20
19 50/1 STOR 1.0 20.17
20 50/1 FLAS 1.0 20.17

[Murph]

Top Speed ratings at G1 and G2 levels in the preps.

[Museful]

Same mix as Richie, except I left in Cause to Believe. At expected high odds, I can bet him across the board, then forget about him. Then a 2 horse win bet on Brother Derek and SweetNorthernSaint.

Good luck!

Ted

[JPinMaryland]

1 d4 Nf6 2. Bg5 Ne4 3. Bh4 c5 4. f3 Qa5+ 5. c3 g5 6. fxe4 gxh4
7. Nd2 cxd4 8. Nc4...

[bucktron]

[X]No Est Pace Lines [X]No Sprints [X]No MidDistances [X]No Mud


TODAY'S DATE:5/6/2006 DISTANCE :1 1/4 PURSE VALUE ---- :2,000,000
TRACK ----- :CD RACE NUMBER:10 CLASS DESCRIPTION:Kentucky Derby Prese

........ NAME ..........1ST* 2ST* 3ND* NORM (N) (FM) [RD] RACE SHAPE FIGS DSLR M/L
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[8]Barbaro 304 304* 81* 101* 10 89 97* |130 = 20 34 41 | 35 4-1
[18]Brother Derek 190 190* 71* 95* 5 91 94 |110 = 30 23 23 | 28 3-1
[5]Point Determined 180 180* 67 98* 4 87 95* | 97 = 23 26 11 | 28 12-1
[4]Sinister Minister 165 165* 85* 92 1 100 92 |130 = 42 74 6 | 21 12-1
[11]Sweetnorthernsaint 159 159 73* 94 0 94 93 |117 = 27 7 44 | 28 10-1
[9]Sharp Humor 155 155 57 96* 7 83 95 | 55 = 5 5 5 | 35 20-1
[7]Bob and John 142 142 65 92 4 85 93 |106 = 23 34 15 | 28 12-1
[10]A. P. Warrior 123 123 60 93 -2 84 89 | 78 = 17 18 10 | 28 15-1
[16]Cause to Believe 94 94 56 91 -7 78 92 | 82 = 13 28 5 | 28 50-1
[3]Keyed Entry 71 71 68 86 -7 82 94 |130 = 33 40 23 | 28 30-1
[20]Flashy Bull 58 58 50 87 -3 70 86 | 82 = 15 11 22 | 35 50-1
[1]Jazil 56 56 62 86 -7 81 96* | 85 = 9 8 33 | 28 30-1
[6]Showing Up 52 52 49 84 -9 90 88 | 84 = 34 5 5 | 14 20-1
[17]Lawyer Ron 44 44 79* 77 1 88 91 |115 = 21 34 27 | 21 4-1
[13]Bluegrass Cat 37 37 65 82 -6 64 91 |104 = 13 22 33 | 21 30-1
[2]Steppenwolfer 30 -3 62 74 -8 83 100* | 57 = 4 9 9 | 21 30-1
[12]Private Vow 30 -5 53 67 -9 56 88 | 65 = 16 11 4 | 21 50-1
[14]Deputy Glitters 30 23 51 83 -8 66 88 | 96 = 18 15 27 | 28 50-1
[15]Seaside Retreat 30 -8 54 72 -5 54 88 | 56 = 6 8 8 | 21 50-1
[19]Storm Treasure 30 -9 48 79 -1 70 89 | 40 = 0 0 0 | 21 50-1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated L.B. Call 1&2&3&Finish Average Average Running
Call-1 Call-2 Call-3 Finish Earnings Purse Value Pattern
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[8]Barbaro 3.53 .81 .00 .00 169,800 292,759 (M)Runner
[18]Brother Derek 6.01 4.06 3.13 3.02 145,260 320,574 (M)Runner
[5]Point Determined 7.82 3.68 2.36 1.85 43,388 139,214 (F)Runner
[4]Sinister Minister .00 .00 1.83 4.47 100,776 370,500 (M)Runner
[11]Sweetnorthernsaint 8.05 10.98 6.92 3.68 62,833 203,784 (M)Runner
[9]Sharp Humor 9.19 6.28 4.16 2.85 65,201 173,540 (M)Runner
[7]Bob and John 5.12 2.01 3.03 4.85 75,563 238,621 (S)Runner
[10]A. P. Warrior 9.32 5.15 4.21 4.09 47,148 177,918 (M)Runner
[16]Cause to Believe 9.65 9.06 6.79 5.34 39,057 93,214 (M)Runner
[3]Keyed Entry .45 2.28 4.65 7.84 49,400 120,488 (F)Runner
[20]Flashy Bull 11.59 10.61 8.53 7.26 17,739 103,000 (S)Runner
[1]Jazil 15.79 15.69 11.21 7.54 32,036 159,516 (S)Runner
[6]Showing Up 5.94 5.61 6.83 8.86 80,167 138,218 (M)Runner
[17]Lawyer Ron 8.50 11.81 11.62 12.25 87,143 263,786 (S)Runner
[13]Bluegrass Cat 8.10 8.90 8.93 9.77 51,611 141,401 (M)Runner
[2]Steppenwolfer 14.76 15.96 14.42 13.70 45,190 153,186 (M)Runner
[12]Private Vow 10.30 15.52 16.02 17.34 60,314 181,736 (M)Runner
[14]Deputy Glitters 5.68 4.97 6.64 9.13 29,364 148,410 (M)Runner
[15]Seaside Retreat 15.58 16.48 15.08 14.49 38,090 126,968 (S)Runner
[19]Storm Treasure 16.63 15.68 12.93 10.99 35,124 147,374 (S)Runner
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[banacek]

here are Derby readouts from "The Master Handicapper" software. All lines entered are Grade 1 and Grade 2 Winners and placers only in each horses last 2 races showing.

Here are the program oddslines.

MPR= Overall odds line similar to total Energy or Average pace.


Those odds lines seem (excuse the pun) "odd" to me. The 5 horses in the first one add up to about 110% and there are still 15 horses left. How do you use them in practice? Or do you just use them as the 1st to 5th choices?

[kitts]

Tom-

The "mystery" number in the All-In-One output is days since last raced.

[shanta]

Those odds lines seem (excuse the pun) "odd" to me. The 5 horses in the first one add up to about 110% and there are still 15 horses left. How do you use them in practice? Or do you just use them as the 1st to 5th choices?

How bout its based on percentiles and qualifying the various quartiles while excluding deviants from the norm. It also weighs "intelligence" both artificial and the human kind. Rolls it all up into a big ball and spits it out.

Not buying that? Me either! lol

I dont know what the heck it is made from or pertains to Banacek. Thats the truth. :faint:
Rich

[dreamscape]

my images are just too big. i will forward images to email addresses

[Zaf]

Way to go Andy & Bucktron !!! :ThmbUp:

Z

[Lasix1]

The photo below shows rankings for ability time (AT) and Counter Energy (CE) using bris pace figs E1, E2 and speed.

The list is sorted by Ability Time descending.

Horses that did not have a CE ranking of 90 have been eliminated - they should not get the distance.

Working from the top down, looks like SNS (CE=107) and Deputy Glitters (CE=99) could be the late closers having to run down Showing Up, Keyed Entry, Brother Derek and Barbaro.
Michiken,

How are AT and CE calculated using the BRIS speed and Pace figures? I can't for the life of me figure it out. Many thanks--

[michiken]

Since I closed my bris account, I had to use the free pdf available to calculate these numbers.

I entered them manually into a spreadsheet while enjoying some Molson's, so I did not feel like checking them.

Ability Time (AT) = E2 + (E2 - E1)
(For most of the past pace lines, E2 was the 6 furlong pace fig and E1 was the 4f pace fig. E2-E1 is often refererred to as turn time).

Counter Energy = [(Speed Fig - AT) + 100]
(This Rating attempts to to measure a combined final fraction/energy distrubution rating. It tells me if the horse ran too fast to the pace call just prior to the stretch).

Depending on the race and distance, these general guidelines apply:

CE less than 75 usually identifies a quitter/toss out unless the horse is running in short sprints.

CE between 75 and 85 and a high ranked AT number indicates a front runner.

CE between 85 and 95 indicate a presser or a horse that should be good to go when stretching out in distance.

CE over 95 indicates a one run closer. These are the types that can pass tired horses late regardless of their speed figure while inflating zacta's and tri's.

For the derby, I calculated the average CE rating for the entire fields last 2 races. It turned out to be 90.8 or something like that. Using a small mysql database, I deleted all pace lines with a CE rating of 90 or less to eliminate quitters. The result was a small chart that I posted.

Using a combination of the 2 numbers will give me an approximation of where the horses can be placed during the race.

================================================== =============

On another note, I really think that Bris should start adding an 8f pace fig to 1 1/8 mile races. The gap between 6f and 9f for the last portion of the race is left too undetermined. I think it would help in the Derby.

Try importing the attached comma separated value file into your spreadsheet/database of choice.

[Lasix1]

Many, many thanks! :)